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Racecaller08
30 Aug 13 13:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 73 | Blogger: Racecaller08's blog
10-year-trends for Sunday's Irish Cambridgeshire Handicap at the Curragh (http://tinyurl.com/ngm68o5) are below:

Age
3yo: 2-9-56
4yo: 3-6-45
5yo: 2-4-46
6yo: 2-7-34
7yo+: 1-3-30
No strong trends on the ages of the winners.

Weight
Horses carrying 9-0 or more: 3-12-70
Horses carrying 8-13 or less: 7-17-141
Of the 3 horses to have won carrying 9-0 or more, one had won a listed race and the other 2 were successful in races worth 50K+
Horse racing from out of the handicap: 0-3-20
Top weight: 90041051063 (2-2-11) – both top weights to win this posted a career higher RPR of 105+ when winning their previous outing.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 2-4-22
Horses rated 90 to 99: 2-12-80
Horses rated 89 or less: 6-13-109
Horses officially rated 87 to 90 have won 5 of last 6 runnings.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in handicap worth 19K+)
10 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
7 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR in past 3 runs
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 89 or higher in last 3 runs (both exceptions posted career high RPR's of 77+ last time)
9 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season (exception won on only previous start)
6 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh
4 of 10 winners had won over CD
10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M
10 of 10 winners had won a race in a field of 12+

Other Races
Irish Field Handicap winner (Ansgar): 05022 (0-2-5)
Claytonhotelgalway.ie Handicap winner (Target Acquired): 04 (0-1-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap winner (Northern Rocked): 6 (0-0-1)
Irish Lincolnshire winner (Sweet Lightning): 0 (0-0-1)
Gabriel Curran Memorial Madrid Handicap winner (Francis Of Asisi): 0 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Topaz Mile H'cap, finishing 010
3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap, finishing 709
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF Habitat Handicap, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Nasrullah' Handicap, finishing 82
2 of 10 winners ran in Alleged Stakes, finishing 65
2 of 10 winners ran in Kilboy Estate Stakes, finishing 90
2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Lincolnshire, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Cambridgeshire, finishing 50
7 of 10 winners contested a 7F or 1M handicap at that season's Galway Festival

Trainers
Mick Halford (2-0-4) trained the winner in 2006 & 2010. 
Kevin Prendergast (1-2-13) has saddled the winner in 1997, 2001 & 2005.
Thomond O’Mara (1-1-8), Andrew Oliver (1-0-2), Aidan O’Brien (1-0-4) & Patrick Prendergast (1-0-4) have all trained the winner in past 5 years.
Joanna Morgan (0-2-4) has saddled the runner-up in 2009 & 2011 while Ger Lyons (0-2-4), Jim Bolger (0-2-12) & Dermot Weld (0-2-12) have also filled a couple of places since 2003.
John Oxx (0-0-2) has seen his 2 runners since 2003 both finish unplaced, however he has won this race 4 times in past 25 years, most recently in 2002.
British-trained runners (0-3-12) have gained no wins and 3 places from 12 runners. 9 of those 12 runners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, including 2 favourites.

Jockey
Claimers: 4-7-70
Non-claimers: 6-22-141
In the past 6 years, a claiming jockey has ridden either the winner (3 times) or the runner-up (4 times) in every running.

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 3-10-80
Horses drawn 9 to 16: 4-10-79
Horses drawn 17 or higher: 3-8-52
No strong trends on the draw.

Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
1 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
3 of 10 winners race in rear

Price
Recent trend has been towards long-priced winners, with 5 of last 6 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 & 25/1
Favourites (0-5-12) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings. Silverware in 2000 was last winning market leader.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Carrying less than 9-0 or previously won a race worth 50K+
·         Top weights that posted an RPR of 105+ in winning last time do well
·         Officially rated 87 to 90
·         Run at least 3 times in 2013
·         Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a handicap worth 19K+)
·         Posted an RPR of 89+ in last 3 runs
·         Ran in past 45 days
·         Won over 7F or 1M
·         Won a race with 12 or more runners
·         Ran in a handicap at 2013 Galway Festival over 7F to 1M
·         Trained by Mick Halford, Kevin Prendergast, Andrew Oliver or Joanna Morgan
·         Ridden by a claimer
·         Priced 16/1 to 25/1
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Report Joist August 31, 2013 10:57 AM BST
Thanks.

Is there a market anywhere yet does anyone know?
Report Facts August 31, 2013 4:16 PM BST
My 2:-

Francis of Assisi
Stuccodor
Report saddo August 31, 2013 4:28 PM BST
Hello, facts. Dance and Dance for me, 11/1 looks ok with £3.65
Report Joist August 31, 2013 9:04 PM BST
It's getting towards now or never with Dance and Dance imo.

Primed to win the Bunbury Cup, ran up the back of one as he started his run then finished like a train. Similar story at Goodwood, got no run whatsoever. Encouraging stuff in lesser race lately, mark of 95 is only 1lb higher than when he should have won the Bunbury Cup. Has to go close doesn't he? But I'm in severe danger of following this won off a cliffedge Crazy

Pheck it, I'm in Cool Had some 10s at £3.65
Report roobuck September 1, 2013 10:35 AM BST
Lots of unexposed horses but hard to choose between them so make little appeal at single figure prices.

Would normally leave alone but the top weight sets a decent standard, is in  good form, proven on ground. Worth small ew at 20s
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