Horse Antepost
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My figures indicate that this horse can win a G1 - he's entered up everywhere. Fine, big horse, with a fast ground action.Will be shocked if doesn't beat GLB.
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Sandown
By my reckoning that Naas race was so far out of step with the other races that I don't believe it can be strictly compared. I rate him a long way behind Gp1 at the moment. He is, however, well in here on these terms. I have only GLB higher, by 2lbs, and that one hasn't got his ground. Good luck. |
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Thanks Figgis. Naas is a tricky track - too few records. But, his splits were exceptional and visually he looks the part. Agree that GLB has a lot to do giving Darwin weight on ground that isn't his best. Hope to see Darwin compete at G1 level. We shall see soon enogh.
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Yes, I wouldn't try to pin him down to that run. He could well be capable of better that I've rated him on that.
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*than
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He did it nicely enough.
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Maurice De Gheest next vs Moonlight Cloud ?
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I have him borderline Gp2 on yesterday's run, GLB isn't a Gp1 horse on that ground, imo. He's still lightly race, hasn't been really pushed and could still be improving, but would need to, in receipt of only 2lbs from Moonlight Cloud.
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Bit below his Naas run but given that it was 7f and he idled I still believe him to be a possible G1 horse in the making but almost certainly a G2.Judging by connections statements he won't be pushed hard this year.
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I thought they said he will go to France next?
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O'Brien said Deauville was a "possibility", sint, so your guess is as good as mine.
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OK. Maurice De Gheest could a really hot race. Lethal Force apparently runs there next too, along with Garswood.
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Back up to 8f tonight, hope to see Darwin improve again and show the turn of foot that he showed at Naas. If so, he can beat LGB comfortably despite worse terms, especially as LGB maybe not a miler especially on fast ground. Is 1.75 value? Nothing else in the race so would have to say maybe it is.
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Agreed, think GLB would be worth a punt on softer ground even with doubts about the trip but not on good to firm. He handles the ground but is a few pounds better when it's soft, I mean proper soft ground, which he didn't get at Deauville. Reckon Darwin probably is value under these conditions, it's just that I rarely like backing horses under 4/5, even though I'm aware that 4/6 is value on a perceived 1/2 shot.
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do you not think GLB is a nice overlay at 5-2 here proven grade 1 horse who doesn't mind quick ground plumb draw to drop in and a nice reverse at the weights...has to be a play for me with his last run looking very decent
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Well he's certainly in with a chance and wouldn't try to put anyone off him, just that Darwin is a horse seemingly still on the upgrade, whereas GLB has had a few tough races on unfavoured ground, been running consistently well but just fear that he might eventually sour on this ground, you'd have to think the trip is more in Darwin's favour too.
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Harry C
You demonstrate the point that you can always find an opposing view. Comes down to how much weight you attach to the key factors. GLB has a weight advantage on these terms but all his best form is on ground with cut but you rightly point out that he ran pretty well Moonlight Cloud on ground that was more like gf than gs imo. I opposed MC on Sunday for that very reason and was wrong to do so.Likewise, GLB's record is far superior at 7f than it is at 8f. At the current prices of 1.85 Darwin, 3.65 GLB, I would say that the market is giving Darwin a 7lb advantage whereas on RPR's Darwin is 7 lb behind (with no bonus of 4lb given by RP). On pure figs you may be right that the value lies with GLB. On the other hand, Darwin has yet to reach his full potential. I firmly believe that he is better at 8f so the gap will be narrower than the last race showed. The choice is between proven form and potential. Back GLB & save on Darwin gives you 1.65 about GLB. |
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thats fair figg but i thought he got caught out wide at the curragh with no cover...he seems to start to come to himself this time of year plus he will get cover here...he is looking exposed but is a fair horse in his own right who is holding his form after a hard campaign...darwin looks a nice horse but an 8lbs pull is enough for me to warrant a wager and he will work harder here than at the curragh but if he wins he will really mark himself down as a potential top notcher ground should slow a tad with rain forecast
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agree with most of what has been said and purely on figures I think GLB would be a good bet at 6/7f on softer.
But we don't actually know just how good Darwin is yet as he hasn't been fully tested and it could be he is a G1 miler in which case GLB won't beat him. I'm not having a bet but I am looking forward to watching and then rating the race afterwards. |
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Strictly on figures, on this ground, I have GLB only 2lbs ahead of Darwin, but that would be over 7f. I'd expect the gap to be narrower over this distance and probably even swing in Darwin's favour. For me, the main factor in this kind of situation is that Darwin is still on the upgrade, or at least at his peak, I'd expect him to run his race, I couldn't be as confident about GLB running his.
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I'm still not convinced Darwin is Gp1 at this stage, I have him in the Montiridge, Olympic Glory bracket, but we should find out for sure today, bound to be run at a good overall pace I would've thought, nevertheless I think 4/5 would be fair in this race.
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NR. We won't find out just yet.
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Seems a bit of an overcautious move from O'Brien, judging by the time of Free Eagle it's no worse than good ground, unless Free Eagle is the new Frankel.
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well he has been particularly effective on fast ground and moves like a fast ground horse too.
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Darwin has a daisy cutting top of the ground action
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got quite a decent figure for that Afsare today Figgis about 7lb below the best milers and he won quite easily.
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Maybe, Stevie. I mean I don't go for all that 'a good horse should go on any ground' garbage, but I've always believed and always will believe that a good horse (unless it's just a very good mudlark) should go on good ground.
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that proved hard work for GLB
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Yeah, the ground definitely not on the soft side despite the divots, I make it only slightly slower than when Darwin won at the Curragh.
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But if it were loose on top then the big horse could struggle on it perhaps.
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Stevie, yes Afsare did it very impressively, I didn't back him but laid Snowboarder, did you back him? I think it's one of those times that's completely out of kilter with the rest of the card, that's not to say it isn't good but I think it could look better than it is, and makes the other races look slower than they were. I gave him a high figure last year when he won at Sandown, Gp2 class, I had him a bit lower when he finished second in the Gp2 at York, I wondered if I'd slightly overrated him but decided to keep the figure. I've rated him exactly the same today, it'll be interesting to see if he runs to that mark again next time, on last year's evidence I'd be inclined to be against him if he's short.
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Ha, topspeed gives it just an 85 due to the time for the 12f race.
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Must be something wrong with his standards, if I used one allowance I could still rate the 12f race on the low side and Afsare would still be a huge figure.
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well based on my standards I's say their 12f one shold be 2 secs faster. I see that Tobann just won, earlier in season I gave that a big figure at Gowran but since then has not run to it again. was thinking I had over rated it.
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A real bummer when that happens. I don't do Gowran, just Curragh, Leopardstown and Naas.
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GLB's time suggests decent ground as well. anyway must get these ratings done. be glad when the evening racing finishes.
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Darwin beaten today.
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very disappointing effort...seemed to travel well but didn't find off the bridle and was weakening quite considerably by the line and seemed to be losing his action late on
just a sprinter? off day? something amiss?? |
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Complete mystery to me, must say. Maybe the ground (rain in morning) and Sudrman also posibbly the same, but times were fast.Over-rated? Possbly? Under-trained like War Command for the Phoenix. Possibly. Loking ahead, top mile races over a mile next summer - Q.Anne, Sussex may be targets. A thought. If there is nothing wrong with him, why not send him back to the States for BC mile where he would get his ground?
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Got beat by some pretty average horses if we are talking about G1s with the horse. I really liked his earlier runs but I think he's going to need it like to be at his best. Will be interesting to see how they campaign him now.
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