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pedrobob
01 Jul 13 20:26
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Date Joined: 27 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 6,427 | Blogger: pedrobob's blog
gave it very large timefigurefor a 2yo on Saturday when winning at Newmarket.

Not surprised been knocked into 10/1 today from 16/1 at the weekend. Think will trade pretty short if avoids War Command before the winter

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Replies: 263
By:
lingbleed
When: 01 Jul 13 21:23
was very impressive ,only problem is that it's no secret ,but he looked very good
By:
unclepuncle
When: 02 Jul 13 09:59
Was tipped up on Talksport on Friday as being something special - I did look to see if there were any prices available but he wasn't quoted in any betting lists and I couldn't be arsed phoning up or emailing to find out.Cry
By:
Millerracing67
When: 02 Jul 13 14:10
He was very impressive & looks the part as well, but would u want to be taking 10s about a once raced maiden winner??? Not for me.
By:
penzance
When: 02 Jul 13 19:01
years ago sure winners,even GP races
were given 16-25/1 quotes for the
Guineas races,Single figures now,
ridiculous with the race still 10
months away.
By:
Howellsy
When: 02 Jul 13 20:04
I wouldn't say it was a very large speed figure on my book. It was good for this time of year over 7f, but not exceptional - the same as Berkshire, for example, but I was impressed with the manner of it. Doesn't seem reliant on a strong pace, and no need to worry about when he hits the front - wants to run and run.
By:
pedrobob
When: 02 Jul 13 22:13
howellsy, have assumed the 7f listed race was run to scratch and hence Kingman (1.2 secs slower) compared favourably at wfa and conceding 2lbs to the first three there
Did you not think much of the older horse race?
By:
deepingfox
When: 03 Jul 13 20:39
Terrible Value at current single figure prices, I was at the meeting on Saturday, the field didn't look up to much in the paddock, the fav apart.

In the market the fav drifted badly, and then in the race didn't put up any type of performance.

Very sceptical form, and AOB already has the Cov 1st and 3rd plus Indian Maharajah, and I would much rather back the Coventry 3rd or Indian Maharajah at 20's and 35s than this colt.

If he comes out at the July Meeting in the Superlative, or in the Solero, and clears away by 5L then we know we have a horse to follow seriously, and John Gosden's improve markedly from debut, but much better 9/1 shots will crop up on every race day than this AP one.
By:
Money On7
When: 03 Jul 13 21:09
Top Offer springs to mind, once raced abdullah winner and looked the part and was mentioned in every breath for the guineas last year. ran like a pig in the guineas and at sandown in a gr 3
By:
Howellsy
When: 03 Jul 13 21:37
I may have counselled caution but the last two posts are excessively downbeat. Pedrobob, I have Producer performing up to his best. On checking the fig I see it's 2 lbs better than Berkshire. It is a strong figure. Yes, we do need to see him build on it next time, but he's no Top Offer, that's certain. Top Offer had no sort of speed fig. This fellow's a genuine contender for top honours already - but he must continue to progress, of course.
By:
pedrobob
When: 03 Jul 13 22:03
have Berkshire a very smart type too and got them on the same figure, Howellsy.
But hoping (with some confidence) that Kingman will rate fair bit higher having done it on debut where missed the break and can normally assume Gosden will still have plenty of room for improvement compared to a Cole type?

Can understand the reservations at single figure odds, seen plenty bite the dust before. Agree next race will reveal plenty, but expecting a massive performance if clock to be believed.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 04 Jul 13 14:09
I was suprised Gosden nominated the Solario as his likely race - it's not a race I associate with future top class horses, though the only exception in my time (1991 onwards) was Gosdens Ravens Pass so maybe that's a good omen.
By:
penzance
When: 04 Jul 13 17:18
Chesam Stks winners don't normally
turn out to be top class,do they?
By:
sintonian
When: 05 Jul 13 16:43
Did this horse beat much when you look at the trainers of those in the first 3 behind? No offence, like.
By:
pedrobob
When: 05 Jul 13 21:43
doesn't look good Sintonian, does it?

Though tbf, the 2nd is owned by Hamdam and trained by B Hills, the 3rd is a 170k gns half brother to 2 Group winners by Sea The Stars, whilst the 4th and 5th were considered good enough to make a debut in the Chesham Stks a week earlier.....

..... though there wasn't really a 2nd..... unless Daylight was running.
By:
deepingfox
When: 05 Jul 13 21:49
Wasn't knocking the horse, in my last post, just being realistic having seen him in the flesh, and the race live. 

My thoughts would be, the next race potentially proves top class or not, so let him prove it to you.

Id much rather back double the stake after he's proved it NTO, than single stake now at the price.

Nothing much to gain by placing a bet now, as I said before Indian Maharaja looked very, very green and blasted by the Lollipop, with a burst of speed - I liked that performance more than KINGMAN.
By:
differentdrum
When: 06 Jul 13 09:02
Despite all the hype don't think he should be ahead of or close to War Command or Berkshire in the current pecking order. You may recall you could have got 16s Frankel after he bolted up at Doncaster. That said I did have a little at the initial 20s.
By:
pedrobob
When: 06 Jul 13 09:27
You may recall you could have got 16s Frankel after he bolted up at Doncaster.

Have rated this horse's debut just 4lbs behind that Doncaster (second) run of Frankel, differentdrum Shocked
By:
pedrobob
When: 06 Jul 13 09:27
.... and 5lbs behind Frankel's Dewhurst win
By:
BJG
When: 06 Jul 13 10:22
Ryan was impressed with Kingman after riding him to victory at Newmarket on Saturday, but warns against overreacting to the performance at this early stage. The Betfair ambassador also has a message to those calling for all-weather racing to be removed from the jockeys' title

"A few people apparently remarked that I looked very upbeat in the winners' enclosure after Kingman's debut victory at Newmarket on Saturday.

That may well be so, and I don't mind telling you that I was very impressed by what is clearly an exciting colt.

He gave me a real good feel, and could be anything.

He looked raw, physically, beforehand and felt asleep going down to the start and coming out of the stalls. He missed the start and took time to get himself organised. But once I asked him to go and win his race, he quickened like a really good horse in the final 2f, even though he was still looking around as he lengthened.

That performance certainly bodes very well for the future - I really liked him - but the time to judge these horses is when they step up in grade against better horses, and maybe that will come into the Solario Stakes at Sandown next.

If he turns out to be anywhere approaching as good as Raven's Pass, who won the Sandown race by seven lengths for the stable in 2007, then I am sure Mr Abdullah and Gosden will be happy men indeed.

But when I see that he is quoted as low as 8-1 for the 2,000 Guineas - and trading at 10.0 on Betfair - then I think it's time to put the performance into perspective. We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here.

Remember, he won that maiden from a horse that had previously finished last of 11 on his only previous start, with another newcomer back in third and a horse in fourth who had finished last of 19 on his debut. And the only horse with any worthwhile form going into the race runs well below par.

Now, I know that you can probably put a decent figure on the performance formwise, given the emphatic nature and ease of the win. And the speed figures boys were impressed, too.

But I don't think Kingman's win justifies him being an 8-1 chance for the Guineas next May - the race is 10 months away, after all, so what price is he to even line up on the day?  - and he is about the same kind of price as War Command. But at least that horse won the Coventry by six lengths, and not what is, in all probability, an average maiden  by the same distance.

And people are too generally far too quick to hype up these kind of horses. I remember Top Offer being similarly touted after winning his Newbury maiden a couple of seasons ago and, although he has clearly had his problems since, the fact is he has beaten eight horses home in four subsequent starts and finished last of 11 off a mark of 92 last time.

But Kingman couldn't have made a more promising start, that much is true."
By:
pedrobob
When: 27 Aug 13 08:48
moment of truth for Kingman, Solario Stks Saturday.

Washaar and Emirates Flyer finished not far away in Group 2 company, but figures don't compare with Kingman and unless Hannon / Hughes Piping Rock is something out of ordinary, then Kingman will have to win easily to justify current Guineas odds.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 13 10:31
On bare figures I have Music Theory a couple of pounds ahead and Washaar level with Kingman. As Kingman's only had the one run you'd normally expect him to be capable of the bigger improvement. Silent Bullet is still a bit of an unknown quantity after dictating a slowly run race last time and Piping Rock is obviously open to big progression. Kingman's likely to be priced up on potential rather than what he's done but I wouldn't feel confident backing any of the opposition so just a watching race for me.
By:
pedrobob
When: 27 Aug 13 11:15
looks like we a long way apart Figgis, rate Kingman well clear. Barely have listed level figs for Washaar or Music Theory.

Surprised you don't have a good figure for Kingman given he clocked 6th fastest (of 276) juvenile heats on the Newmarket July 7f course since 2000? No wind, ground not riding overly fast. Presumably you must have taken a dim view of the Grp 3 Criterion Stks on the card?
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 13 11:35
Ped, no, just the opposite, I have the Gp3 as solid, in fact the winning performance was good enough for a 7f Gp2, even though Producer didn't frank it afterwards, which wasn't too surprising given his profile. I have also used the same allowance. As I said, it was very good for a debut, but still needs to be improved upon. You must use a lower pound per second scale than I use. I use a relatively high one compared to some I've seen.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 27 Aug 13 14:11
I'm with Pedro here as have Kingman well clear. Washaar could rate higher but Ascot was a very steady pace and the Newmarket one was quite steady too imo.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 27 Aug 13 14:21
although even after I added on my sectional mark up for washaar at Newmarket I still have him around 10lb below Kingman.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 13 14:54
Best performance so far, for me, by a 2yo colt was Somewhat at Newbury. I know the Glen Moss time holds it down but I believe it misleadingly holds the whole card down. I'd still only have him as Gp2 class, though, and not a big fan of the trainer for producing Classic types. I know there was Mister Baileys and Attraction but I can think of far more disappointments.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 27 Aug 13 15:10
Yes I really liked that Somewhat performance although ratings wise I had it 10lb behind my top 2yos but I'm not totally tied to my figures if I like other things about the horse and the form.
By:
pedrobob
When: 27 Aug 13 15:37
You must use a lower pound per second scale than I use. I use a relatively high one compared to some I've seen.

over 7f, I allow 3.4lbs per length. Large figure for Kingman probably due to a 35lbs WFA allowance awarded for a 2yo end of June. As earlier on this thread I think, accept WFA can skew things plenty, so Sat will answer plenty of questions.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 13 16:05
I do think he's the most likely winner as improvement might not be guaranteed but it's likely. I'm just not sure if there will be much value in his price now the hype has started, 8/1 for the Guineas already is ridiculously short, in my view. He could win easily on Saturday and still not necessarily prove he's up to the Guineas. Gosden's Raven's Pass won the race by 7 lengths, much was made of the fast time but I thought it was still only Gp2 class. I don't think it was until later in his 3yo season that he proved genuinely Gp1 material, although I know some blamed the rides he was given.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 13 16:38
Just had a quick search and Raven's Pass was available at twice Kingman's current price after winning a Listed race at Ascot as impressively as Kingman won his maiden, he was then halved in price after his Solario romp to where Kingman is already. Only six years later these prices have become madness.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 27 Aug 13 16:50
The Betfair 2000 Guineas market is currently overbroke to the tune of approximately 70% and to date the two best colts seen on a race course are heading the market. Their current prices may look big in a month or two.
By:
Figgis
When: 27 Aug 13 16:59
Possibly, but the overbroke market is largely down to people taking a strong stand against horses they consider to have little chance, plus a lack of strong form contenders, which is pretty much the norm at this stage, rather than any obvious value in the front two.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 28 Aug 13 19:27
Apart from Makfi the last ten 2000 Guineas winners have won before the end of August so it`s likely the 2014 winner has already been seen and if I had a choice I would take the two heading the market. The next few weeks should crystallise things.
By:
Figgis
When: 28 Aug 13 20:01
The chances are the winner probably has already made its debut, but looking back at the last ten I wouldn't have thought many of them would've been favourite for the race at the same stage, maybe Dawn Approach.
By:
DickTurpin
When: 28 Aug 13 21:22
In a word - Berkshire.......
By:
unclepuncle
When: 29 Aug 13 15:45
James Doyle now retained jockey for all Abdullah's UK horses and rides Kingman on Saturday.
By:
pedrobob
When: 29 Aug 13 20:51
Are you serious? Twice as good as Buick, massive bonus if true
By:
pedrobob
When: 29 Aug 13 20:53
just seen on RP site, great news
By:
Lance in France
When: 29 Aug 13 21:58
I thought I read the contract starts on the 1st September.
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