Horse Antepost
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Will he bounce? Is it a bridge too far? Will his trainer forget he entered him?
We know he gets 12 furlongs.
We know he gets 12 furlongs.
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Replies: 34
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Typical Bolger. All the suggestions were, he'd be a long time off the track after the Derby. No doubt the yard helped themselves to the big prices dangled on him in this race, & now he's going to run in this race. Reminiscent of his sire's sudden appearance in the Derby decs having previously been described as a non-runner.
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Defintiley manipulated the market for his own ends again, but it will be great to see him, Magician and Torrnado in battle.
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Manipulating the market makes no difference, as he won't win.
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Haha yep a carefully thought out plan between Bolger and Sheik Mo...
Run him dead in the Derby, rule him out of Ascot, pick off a couple of hundred at big odds in the SJP market. Then run him!! Clever. Now Bolger and Sheik Mo can lay it off and end up with a couple of thousand pounds to nothing at Ascot. Genius!! |
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whether or not they bet it is irrelevant. they knew they were going Ascot. i think Magician would have been a bigger price if this was public knowledge. Bolger might be a good trainer but he forgets who finances his sport he does so well out of.
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Like Father like Son..history repeating itself with Bolger's antics. It was great with New Approach when he made everyone so angry that punters wouldnt back it on principle which meant he was avaible at double the odds he should have been.
Dawn Approach is the same, if he didnt run in the derby he would be 1/2.I rarely back horses after they've run a stinker but at the end of the day this horse is the real deal and will win easily if he turns up. At odds against its worth a decent bet he does imo |
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the big o you are be sarcastic surely like they need a couple of grand please
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oh dear...
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Epsom Derby / St James Palace.
Traditionally it is a race for English, French, Irish Guineas horses; good milers, who had a decent rest before Royal ascot. Marju won in 1991 after 2nd in the Epsom Derby looks the best performance. I think Dawn Approach will perform like Rodrigo de Triano in 1992: 2000 Guineas 1st, Epsom Derby 9th, St James Palace 4th. |
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2.18 for Dawn Approach to win.
1.70 Magician to place 1.75 Toronado to place I expect Magician to be fully fit and nailed on for a place |
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far too many imponderables for me, I would normally be laying Toronado for win and place as I think he is not very fast
but with the other two having questions against them I dunno |
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Looks the race of the meeting "if" they all line-up on Tues.
Roll on Tues  Great wks racing in store & the weather looks fair for g/f ground. |
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Being very sarcastic, Tips...
Being less sarcastic, I think Magician can roll DA in this. Terrific race. |
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Magician looks to me like a horse on the move, a real improver this season and could well improve again. One of those `not flashy` types but thoroughly professional and gets the job done. A tough nut to crack with a good rating to back him up.
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What questions does Magician have against him? The 2nd and 4th that day were only narrowly beaten in France, the 3rd has gone on to win a listed race and previous to that ran well behind the Derby 2nd, added to the fact he won comfortably the form looks solid to me.
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Did O Brien not say that Mars would run if Magician was a non runner?
With Mars declared is Magician certain to run? He should be shorter if he is imo |
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It's NR NB now anyway isn't it? Doesn't matter if he runs.
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Magician has the potential set back against him at a minimum, the dee stakes form is hardly rock solid by any means, the Curragh form I agree is better and was done in a decent clip. My concern with the Irish 2000 form is that Trading leather is clearly a 1m 2f horse at a minimum and is not a top class miler. Gale force Ten's form is a fair bit stronger although again he looks more of s stayer to me.
I noted that George Vancouver was beaten 15l by DA and 12L by Magician although the timings of the races suggests there isn't that much between them. The Hannon team have been adamant that Toronado didn't run his race in the 2000G, and suggested he had a problem after the race and DA looked a real superstar in the race before blowing out at Epsom. Have to agree that this race is the class of the meeting in terms of strength in depth. |
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I'm looking at Magician just as a place bet btw, I can't see him out of the top three but do think DA is more likely to under perform than he is.
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I have watched all the videos again and really like the way Magician travels through his race. The one that I am really interested in is Toronado as the time figure he produced on his seasonal outing was spectacular, if I can forgive his run in the 2000 I think he may well trade half his SP at some stage. I was at Newmarket that day and really didn't notice all the splashes that were coming up, only watching it on the video again shows how much water had fallen on the course and it must have impacted the going in some respect. A really tricky race
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Trading Leather has decent 8F form anyway. Only disappointed the once on soft groud but was a previous group winner over the trip. The second has been a listed winner, the 3rd beaten narrowly in a group 3 and the 4th home was 2nd in the 2000 guineas. That's hardly weak 8F form.
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The only really doubts I would have over Magician is the ground as his last bit of form is by far the best, wouldn't be as keen on Gd/sft.
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His Chester Dee Stakes victory although does not amount to much in terms of ratings does however use the term `powered clear` on g/s ground, and that extra reserve of stamina will be beneficial.
Like you GCW i am only interested in the place market here. |
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Backing Magician in case he does run.Watch the race otherwise, DA best of weak bunch not sure how he might run.
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Does anyone have any official or hand times for the sectionals in the Craven? I have Toronado running around 21.5 secs for the final two frulongs compared to the office timings in the Guineas which has DA running the final two furlongs in 24.99. Suggests a fiercely run contest although the final time was nearly three quater's of second slower than the Craven. Have to say my timings are based on the video replay which is not entirely accurate
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The going in the English 2000 Guineas was good to firm. Rain fell before the race and there was standing water on the track during the race. In the USA on dirt when there is water lying on the track it is described as sloppy, and is often a fast surface. With Glory Awaits (by Choisir, awd 7.2f) and Van De Neer (by Dutch Art, awd 7.1f) in the places the race might have suited sprinters. Just a thought.
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Well done the Bolger yard for tucking into huge prices AP Dawn Approach, after saying he'd take a long break after Epsom. The yard is collecting up quite some resume of 'putting punters away'. Great horse, a deserved winner, just find Bolger's hollow words & behaviour regarding entries unacceptable.
Teofilo - scratched on eve of Guineas having reassured punters all was well with his stable star New Approach - announced as a NR for the Derby before turning up in the decs & going on to win. Dawn Approach - pretty much as above ahead of St James Palace. |
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Regardless of the PR, it's a pretty impressive training performance to get him back so soon. Maybe too many trainbers are troo precious about their horses, but hats off to Bolger as a trainer of horses. I thought he had no chance.
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how much was laid on DA ante-post at 100/1 ?
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Think I saw a good 50-80k's worth of bets placed on DA at huge odds, sint. Much like when his sire won the Derby - I had backed Tartan Bearer AP, matched on here at 90, so am especially bitter about these Bolger antics.
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^^^^ Actually, that is probably a massive under-estimate.
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Sint, pennies. When I looked it was a few hundred quid, and that would include betfair's double counting. That was after it became apparent he would run. I did the math in my head and worked out that the yard couldn't have stood to gain more than a few grand.
Johnny, your figures suggest that layers took a £4m antepost liability on DA (assuming £40k backing at 100/1). Simply wouldn't happen. |
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No - 50-80k in winnings. I saw the chart & there was decent money matched around the 50-120 range. A lot more was won than you intimate.
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I'm sure Betfair will post here how much was traded at, say 5/1+.
A list of the big winners at those prices might interest someone somewhere. |