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I have been waiting for this horse frst time out. He always runs a blinder first time and its probably the best time to catch him...
He loves fast ground, won at the distance and won the Epsom Dash last year at 50/1 and is only 1lb higher...
I expected him to be bigger than 12's but still think its value at that price... hopefully will turn up.
If he does I am hoping he will win too.
Good luck.
He loves fast ground, won at the distance and won the Epsom Dash last year at 50/1 and is only 1lb higher...
I expected him to be bigger than 12's but still think its value at that price... hopefully will turn up.
If he does I am hoping he will win too.
Good luck.
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A stat that no doubt Andrew Mount will trot out in his excellent RFO column tomorrow, but worth mentioning here.
At Epsom, since the start of the 2011 season, in handicaps of ten or more runners Stalls 10 to 20 are a combined 0/42.
Doubtless this won't stop the 'gravy train' racing media from repeatedly telling everyone that you need a high draw in this race.
At Epsom, since the start of the 2011 season, in handicaps of ten or more runners Stalls 10 to 20 are a combined 0/42.
Doubtless this won't stop the 'gravy train' racing media from repeatedly telling everyone that you need a high draw in this race.
Leo, I haven't done any research on this but you are palpably confused. I'm not sure how many 5f sprints there have been in the last two years, but it's well shy of 20, let alone 42. All other races favour low numbers. The 5f sprint course has favoured high numbers. There is no other 5f sprint like the Dash and a two year sample is meaningless.
Howellsy,
With all due respect, I am not confused at all. I have reported pure facts. Make of them what you will.
To re-iterate: At Epsom, since the start of the 2011 season, in handicaps of ten or more runners Stalls 10 to 20 are a combined 0/42.
I think it is you that is confused.
I am not suggesting there have been 42 races! There have been 7. It is small sample I know, but it is a fact. Across those seven races there have been 42 horses drawn in the stalls 10 and above. Their record is as follows:
Stall 10: 0/7
Stall 11: 0/7
Stall 12: 0/7
Stall 13: 0/6
Stall 14: 0/4
Stall 15: 0/4
Stall 16: 0/2
Stall 17: 0/2
Stall 18: 0/1
Stall 20: 0/2
A combined total of 0/42
The races in Question:
24th Apr 2013: Ajjaadd won from stall 1 of 13
27th August 2012: Long Awaited won from stall 3 of 12
2nd June 2012: Stone Of Folca won from stall 2 of 20
25th April 2012: Cadeaus Pearl won from stall 8 of 14
29th August 2011: Your Gifted won from stall 6 of 11
4th June 2011: Captain Dunne won from stall 9 of 16
20th April 2011: Falasteen won from stall 5 of 14
Feel free to check those results yourself. If you do you will see that in that time (albeit a short space of time) no horse drawn in stalls 10 and above has won.
These are facts. I am not saying a horse drawn higher than 10 can't, win won't win, or anything like that. I am just saying that since the start of the 2011 season, horses in 5f handicap sprints at Epsom that had more than 10 runners are a combined 0/42.
Aftertiming, I know, but I used the above statistic (using 6 races, of course) to back Ajjaadd last month. If being 'palpably confused' helps me keep backing 12/1 winners then long may I continue to be confused.
You may well argue that a 2 year stat is meaningless, you may well be right, but what I have reported above is a fact, and one that I choose not to ignore when it comes to assessing a race such as the 'dash'.
IrisDeBalme started this thread highlighting the chance of Stone Of Folca. I wouldn't want him, or any other backer, to be put off by the fact this horse (or any other horse anyone fancies) may have a low draw, because no doubt 'experts' like Mick Fitzgerald will have done all of 3 seconds research on the matter and be telling everyone that you need to be drawn high (it reminds me of the old ATR days at Windsor with John Mccririck and Alex Hammond, where every time there was a sprint race John would scream that you had to be drawn high (this was before the stall reversal for right handed tracks). This was despite the overwhelming statistical evidence that in most races that season a high draw was if anything a negative).
With all due respect, I am not confused at all. I have reported pure facts. Make of them what you will.
To re-iterate: At Epsom, since the start of the 2011 season, in handicaps of ten or more runners Stalls 10 to 20 are a combined 0/42.
I think it is you that is confused.
I am not suggesting there have been 42 races! There have been 7. It is small sample I know, but it is a fact. Across those seven races there have been 42 horses drawn in the stalls 10 and above. Their record is as follows:
Stall 10: 0/7
Stall 11: 0/7
Stall 12: 0/7
Stall 13: 0/6
Stall 14: 0/4
Stall 15: 0/4
Stall 16: 0/2
Stall 17: 0/2
Stall 18: 0/1
Stall 20: 0/2
A combined total of 0/42
The races in Question:
24th Apr 2013: Ajjaadd won from stall 1 of 13
27th August 2012: Long Awaited won from stall 3 of 12
2nd June 2012: Stone Of Folca won from stall 2 of 20
25th April 2012: Cadeaus Pearl won from stall 8 of 14
29th August 2011: Your Gifted won from stall 6 of 11
4th June 2011: Captain Dunne won from stall 9 of 16
20th April 2011: Falasteen won from stall 5 of 14
Feel free to check those results yourself. If you do you will see that in that time (albeit a short space of time) no horse drawn in stalls 10 and above has won.
These are facts. I am not saying a horse drawn higher than 10 can't, win won't win, or anything like that. I am just saying that since the start of the 2011 season, horses in 5f handicap sprints at Epsom that had more than 10 runners are a combined 0/42.
Aftertiming, I know, but I used the above statistic (using 6 races, of course) to back Ajjaadd last month. If being 'palpably confused' helps me keep backing 12/1 winners then long may I continue to be confused.
You may well argue that a 2 year stat is meaningless, you may well be right, but what I have reported above is a fact, and one that I choose not to ignore when it comes to assessing a race such as the 'dash'.
IrisDeBalme started this thread highlighting the chance of Stone Of Folca. I wouldn't want him, or any other backer, to be put off by the fact this horse (or any other horse anyone fancies) may have a low draw, because no doubt 'experts' like Mick Fitzgerald will have done all of 3 seconds research on the matter and be telling everyone that you need to be drawn high (it reminds me of the old ATR days at Windsor with John Mccririck and Alex Hammond, where every time there was a sprint race John would scream that you had to be drawn high (this was before the stall reversal for right handed tracks). This was despite the overwhelming statistical evidence that in most races that season a high draw was if anything a negative).
Beg your pardon Leo, I did misunderstand your post. Apologies for my tone. I still think it's a pretty small sample, but it is an interesting bit of info. I think it's probably true that this sprint, like most pothers, will be determined by where the pace is, rather than the draw.
My bet - Duke Of Firenze - Drawn 19 ! Stats. are there to be broken 
Yes agree Zilzal...
Stone of Folca drawn 15
My only concern is the ground ... if it doesnt dry out I reckon he will be a non runner at this stage.
Stone of Folca drawn 15
My only concern is the ground ... if it doesnt dry out I reckon he will be a non runner at this stage.
non runners
17. Swiss Cross 3.9% 10:30 (UKT)
10. Stone Of Folca 7.1% 10:44 (UKT)
17. Swiss Cross 3.9% 10:30 (UKT)
10. Stone Of Folca 7.1% 10:44 (UKT)
Yes such a shame... dont think the ground has dried enough ...
I switched my bet over to Church Music and Long Awaited
I switched my bet over to Church Music and Long Awaited
Yes Trusty... I have been waiting for him most of this season to see where he will run ... as I think its the best time to catch him...
wd Facts 
was on FV, Hope they find the sniper that shot him 50 yards out 
was countin my money
was on FV, Hope they find the sniper that shot him 50 yards out was countin my money
He is running today... hopefully no rain... first time out best time to catch him!
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