Horse Antepost
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Dear Mr Hannon,
I offer you this advice free of charge, although should you wish to pay me for future consultations, I would be prepared to negotiate.
You seem to be planning to send Olympic Glory to France. This is an error of judgement based on two pieces of flawed thinking.
Firstly, you seemed to infer from the Vintage stakes last year that OG does not handle undulating tracks, and that therefore he won't be any good at Newmarket. With all due respect, sir, this is a risible notion. The hills and dales of Goodwood didn't seem to bother your fellow when he scooted home on debut, and the hardly-flat July Course posed few problems when he breezed home in the Superlative.
Secondly, you appear to believe OG will be suited by Longchamp because he has already won there. Again, I hope you will forgive the temerarious implication that you have failed to think this through, but there are several problems with this idea: if 'horses for courses' is your motto, then you should surely be wishing the Guineas was being run at Goodwood, where OG has won twice (oh sorry, I forgot, he's not suited by undulating tracks); the Lagardere features the 'second winning post', meaning there is an elongated straight for that race. This suited OG, and this helped him to win that race, as did the heavy ground, which turned it even more into a test of galloping and stamina. There will be no such facility in the French 2000, and furthermore, you might be scuppered before the race even begins by a wide draw.
Your horse is a galloper suited by straight tracks, a big field, and a strong pace. What inconvenienced him at Goodwood was the long, sweeping turn into the straight. Oh, and the fact he was drawn 9 of 10 and ran most of the bend 3 or 4 horses wide. Oh, and the fact that he carried a 3lb penalty. In fact, the more you think about it, it was a miracle that he managed to win at Goodwood at all, but what won it for him was a clear, sustained run down the outside (was that part of the track perfectly straight?). In France, you need the sort of horse that can quicken nimbly in between horses. OG is not that horse.
Think about it for just a minute more, please. OG was much less convincing at Newbury in the Greenham than he was at Goodwood. Does this mean he doesn't really want a flat track either?
When O'Brien has more than one decent miler, he runs them at Newmarket. It's the race that matters - and he's not even English. He sends any old rubbish to France. If OG is going to win a classic, it'll be the Newmarket version. He needs a straight track and a strong pace.
All the best,
Howellsy.
I offer you this advice free of charge, although should you wish to pay me for future consultations, I would be prepared to negotiate.
You seem to be planning to send Olympic Glory to France. This is an error of judgement based on two pieces of flawed thinking.
Firstly, you seemed to infer from the Vintage stakes last year that OG does not handle undulating tracks, and that therefore he won't be any good at Newmarket. With all due respect, sir, this is a risible notion. The hills and dales of Goodwood didn't seem to bother your fellow when he scooted home on debut, and the hardly-flat July Course posed few problems when he breezed home in the Superlative.
Secondly, you appear to believe OG will be suited by Longchamp because he has already won there. Again, I hope you will forgive the temerarious implication that you have failed to think this through, but there are several problems with this idea: if 'horses for courses' is your motto, then you should surely be wishing the Guineas was being run at Goodwood, where OG has won twice (oh sorry, I forgot, he's not suited by undulating tracks); the Lagardere features the 'second winning post', meaning there is an elongated straight for that race. This suited OG, and this helped him to win that race, as did the heavy ground, which turned it even more into a test of galloping and stamina. There will be no such facility in the French 2000, and furthermore, you might be scuppered before the race even begins by a wide draw.
Your horse is a galloper suited by straight tracks, a big field, and a strong pace. What inconvenienced him at Goodwood was the long, sweeping turn into the straight. Oh, and the fact he was drawn 9 of 10 and ran most of the bend 3 or 4 horses wide. Oh, and the fact that he carried a 3lb penalty. In fact, the more you think about it, it was a miracle that he managed to win at Goodwood at all, but what won it for him was a clear, sustained run down the outside (was that part of the track perfectly straight?). In France, you need the sort of horse that can quicken nimbly in between horses. OG is not that horse.
Think about it for just a minute more, please. OG was much less convincing at Newbury in the Greenham than he was at Goodwood. Does this mean he doesn't really want a flat track either?
When O'Brien has more than one decent miler, he runs them at Newmarket. It's the race that matters - and he's not even English. He sends any old rubbish to France. If OG is going to win a classic, it'll be the Newmarket version. He needs a straight track and a strong pace.
All the best,
Howellsy.
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Or perhaps
Dear Mr Hannon I have backed Olympic Glory for the Guineas. Please, please run him there. I don't care if the owner has asked of they can be kept apart, my bet is more important. Thanks |
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temerarious
Nice! |
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Actually, I think Olympic Glory has more chance of getting closer to Dawn Approach than Toronado, but I can understand why they're aimed at separate targets.
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Hi Figgis. We differ on Toronado. I make his Craven run 5 lbs better than Dawn Approach's best figure (which he posted both in the Coventry and the Dewhurst, suggesting to me a lack of significant improvement). The Guineas will, of course, be a world away from the lovely little solo flight up the Rowley Mile we saw last Thursday, but if he can replicate that figure in the Guineas, he should beat DA in my view. Even if I'm wrong (no big surprise), if I was Hannon, I'd be running OG upsides DA and having Toronado tracking them. I reckon OG is good enough to take enough out of DA to soften him up for a late, late run by Hughesie, Toronado winning on the nod. Better to use up two horses to win THE Guineas than to keep your horses separate and win nothing.
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I have Toronado 5lbs worse than DA, have you backed Toronado then?
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I haven't had any bets on the Guineas as antepost betting has not been a strength of mine. The single best piece of form in my view is the Coventry, as it showed what DA could do under pressure against decent horses. The most impressive performance in adversity was surely OG in the Vintage. Toronado has made all in each of his last two starts, and although he kept on well enough under pressure from Dundonnell at Doncaster, that was a slow time, and I'm not sure whether he'll be able to replicate his Craven figure under pressure. If it's a small field I'd be tempted to make the running. I missed the 4-1 on Toronado after the Craven and would rather wait until the day, even though I've a sneaky feeling Dawn Approach might just encounter a setback and be forced to miss the race.
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I'm surprised Richard Hannon hasn't come on here to explain himself.
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toronado has developed into a monster in the past 6 mths and will hose up in the guineas...........FACT.
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Toronado has developed into a potentially good 3 year miler, but will be beaten in the 2000 guineas by an even better one...........FACT
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Good thread,Howellsy.
You make a very well reasoned argument. |
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I'm not making any comment either way about the rights or wrongs on the OP's views but probably the key factor here is that both Toronado and Olympic Glory have the same owner.
Yes I know Coolmore often run more than one in a classic but how many of those are usually pacemakers? Plus if they have 2 serious runners then it's usually because they aren't too sure which one is the best, yet once they know that they tend to keep them apart from then on. |
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in the words of vincent o' brien , if you think you have 2 derby horse's in the yard the chance's are you have none .
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Dear Mr Hannon,
After three weeks in which your two best colts both failed to be placed in the classics, I remain available for freelance advisory work. Yours etc, |
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Still available.
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Epic fred H
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Howellsy
Very cool performance indeed my friend how you've let a few hours slide by before the bump, I'd have waited for about 5 minutes myself, but then I wouldn't have had the foresight in the first instance to have written it  . |
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I'm still waiting for Richard Hannon to explain himself. He was just lucky to train a few winners this year.
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"Breeders Cup now the plan."
Oh dear, we still have so much work to do. Immediately after the Marois, I had two thoughts: thank god he didn't win, as I hadn't backed him at 30+ on here, and he'll be a lay at odds on in the Moulin. I have to admit, I was going through a crisis of confidence at Moulin time, and I chickened out of laying him that day. Those are the decisions that we most hate ourselves for in retrospect. I did have a reasonable bet on him yesterday, but certainly nothing to feel especially proud about. I doubt he'll be odds on at Santa Anita, but his presence there will guarantee value in the home market at least. My plan for Olympic Glory: Lockinge Queen Anne Marois QE2. Toronado: Breeders' Cup (still might be a tad tight for him there) D'Ispahan Eclipse Sussex Moulin |
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howellsy i realise you have become richard hannon juniors new racing secretary but i had the prince of wales in mind for toronado which is not in your planning...just a thought when your passing this on to junior!!
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surely you cleaned up laying this in the place?
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I could not be sure he wouldn't scramble into a place against these horses but I did back Wise Dan.
I just can't fathom why they ran him. You have a chance to send your horse into the winter after a great QE2 win or a thrashing in a foreign land. Hopefully they've learned their lesson now. |
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Hannon confirms
date for licence switch By Lee Mottershead 1:09PM 21 NOV 2013 THE long and glorious career of Britain's champion Flat trainer Richard Hannon will officially come to an end next month after he revealed to the Racing Post that son and assistant Richard jnr will take over the stable's training licence on January 1. Hannon, who became champion for the fifth time this month, has written to owners, including the Queen, informing them that he will stand down at the end of the year. In a glittering career that has endured since 1970, Hannon has been associated with a large number of top-class horses, including most recently star milers Canford Cliffs, Toronado and Olympic Glory. The 68-year-old also this year trained his fourth British Classic winner when outstanding filly Sky Lantern landed the 1,000 Guineas under son-in-law and stable jockey Richard Hughes. Canford Cliffs - Goodwood - 28.7.10 Canford Cliffs: one of the best horses Hannon has trained PICTURE: Edward Whitaker Hannon said on Thursday: "It has been a long career and I've trained a lot of winners but it's about time that Richard got his name on the roster of trainers. "It was always going to happen, but Richard jnr has served his apprenticeship and you cannot keep him waiting forever. Ian Balding passed the baton to Andrew and Barry Hills did likewise to Charlie, and it is only right that Richard should now take over. "We thought long and hard as to when to make the announcement, but I wanted to make sure all my owners knew first, especially the Queen, and now that all the yearlings are in for next season it is the appropriate moment to let everyone know. After all, it is Richard's 38th birthday today - what better present could he ask for? "Inevitably, people will say that I have retired, but I will still be up and out at first lot and assisting Richard instead of him assisting me. "It is not my style to lay in bed all morning - I love being with the horses, but these past couple of seasons I have started to wind down and go racing less. "I will still go to Newbury and Salisbury and also Royal Ascot and Goodwood, but I am now 68 and maybe it is time that I dropped down a gear. "The quality of horses he has definitely improved these last two or three years, and that is down to Richard jnr. It was him who brought in Sheikh Hamdan [Al Maktoum] and Sheikh Joaan [Al Thani] among others, and we can now go to the bloodstock sales with fatter cheque books than we have done in the past." Hannon also reflected on some of the horses he has been involved with. He added: "I have been lucky enough to have trained some great horses. The first Classic winner is always special and I will never forget Mon Fils [1973] landing that Guineas, while Tirol and Don't Forget Me also have prominent places in the scrapbook, but there have been plenty of others, notably Canford Cliffs, Paco Boy, Toronado, Sky Lantern and Olympic Glory. "We have one more roll of the dice this year, Sky Lantern in the Hong Kong Mile at Sha Tin on December 8. We have enjoyed another fabulous season, with seven Group 1 winners and £5.5 million in prize-money, but it would be nice to finish with one more biggie, and maybe Sky Lantern can make the dream become reality. She is very well and she will love the fast ground out there. "Then who knows Richard jnr might get off to a flying start by winning the 2,000 Guineas with Toormore or one of the others. Now that would be the perfect lift-off, wouldn't it?" |
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To be fair, he did get a few things right over the years.
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Well played H well played. Great foresight
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Dear Richard Junior,
Last year I offered my services to your father as a racing advisor. I fear he must have missed this thread, as I never received an offer. You will be delighted to know I am still available. I would like to advise you, once again, about your Olympic Glory's predilections. Well done for starting him off at Newbury. Straight track you see. He's been beaten only by two horses on straight tracks - Dawn Approach and Moonlight Cloud, both by short distances, both rivals basically unbeatable at those times. On round tracks, especially those in France, he is somewhat less prolific. This is not a coincidence. I am starting to wonder whether today's plan to run him at Longchamp on Sunday is some perverse attempt to upset me. It has worked. It's just that, having re-established a good horse at the peak of his powers, you are now setting him up for inevitable failure. You'll be telling me next you intend to send Toronado to the Queen Anne without a prep run!! Oh the laughs we could have! Yours sincerely, Howellsy |
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Think he'll have to start reading this soon Howellsey
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If only I felt it was rocket science SG!
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