Horse Antepost
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Since JOCI Club hasn't put anything up yet, I will jump in. All analysis based on the last 10 years results:
Weight: 9 ex 10 carried 10-9 or less, 8 carried 10-5 or less. The exception was Grey Abbey who carried 11-12 but was a freak at Ayr where his course form prior to winning in 2004 read 132111114 (the 4 being in the Scottish National previous). The following year he won the Charlie Hall, the Pillar Chase and the Betfair Bowl (beating First Gold 12L). Quite a horse, I would be surprised if there was a Grey Abbey in this year's field.
Age: all 10 aged 8-11, with an even spread across those. The success of novices in this race is well documented, but interestingly no horse under the age of 8 has won. There are quite a few 6 and 7yos in this year's renewal.
Runs in season / Recent run: all 10 had run between 3 and 6 times since October 1. All 10 had run in last 8 weeks. Just like at Aintree, you need a horse that is race fit.
Recent Form: 9 out of 10 had finished in the first 2 in at least one of their last 2 runs, 8 out 10 were placed last time out (of which 4 had won). Unlike the National which is teeming with plot horses with not much recent form, this is generally won by a horse in good form. An interesting point to note is that 8 of the last 10 winners swerved both Cheltenham and Aintree, the exceptions being Joes Edge who won a 20F novice chase at Aintree (after being pulled up in the Jewson) and Beshabar who ran 2nd in the NH chase at Cheltenham.
Winning form over 3m+ trips: only Joe's Edge had not won a chase over at least 24F. 5 of the last 6 winner had won over at least 31F, the exception being the aforementioned Beshabar.
No. of chase runs: I haven't bothered to analyse this. With 3 winning novices, it is pretty clear you don't need a lot of chase experience under your belt.
Ayr form: 5 winners had not run before at Ayr. Of the other 5, Ryalux had won its only run, Grey Abbey has been discussed and Merigo had form of 3112 before his 2010 win, which obviously looked even better last year. Only trendbuster Joe's Edge had run poorly at Ayr (PU on only outing).
Conclusions: my shortlist of 5 based on these is: Neptune Equester, Monsieur Cadou, Rebeccas Choice, Lively Baron, King Fontaine.
Weight: 9 ex 10 carried 10-9 or less, 8 carried 10-5 or less. The exception was Grey Abbey who carried 11-12 but was a freak at Ayr where his course form prior to winning in 2004 read 132111114 (the 4 being in the Scottish National previous). The following year he won the Charlie Hall, the Pillar Chase and the Betfair Bowl (beating First Gold 12L). Quite a horse, I would be surprised if there was a Grey Abbey in this year's field.
Age: all 10 aged 8-11, with an even spread across those. The success of novices in this race is well documented, but interestingly no horse under the age of 8 has won. There are quite a few 6 and 7yos in this year's renewal.
Runs in season / Recent run: all 10 had run between 3 and 6 times since October 1. All 10 had run in last 8 weeks. Just like at Aintree, you need a horse that is race fit.
Recent Form: 9 out of 10 had finished in the first 2 in at least one of their last 2 runs, 8 out 10 were placed last time out (of which 4 had won). Unlike the National which is teeming with plot horses with not much recent form, this is generally won by a horse in good form. An interesting point to note is that 8 of the last 10 winners swerved both Cheltenham and Aintree, the exceptions being Joes Edge who won a 20F novice chase at Aintree (after being pulled up in the Jewson) and Beshabar who ran 2nd in the NH chase at Cheltenham.
Winning form over 3m+ trips: only Joe's Edge had not won a chase over at least 24F. 5 of the last 6 winner had won over at least 31F, the exception being the aforementioned Beshabar.
No. of chase runs: I haven't bothered to analyse this. With 3 winning novices, it is pretty clear you don't need a lot of chase experience under your belt.
Ayr form: 5 winners had not run before at Ayr. Of the other 5, Ryalux had won its only run, Grey Abbey has been discussed and Merigo had form of 3112 before his 2010 win, which obviously looked even better last year. Only trendbuster Joe's Edge had run poorly at Ayr (PU on only outing).
Conclusions: my shortlist of 5 based on these is: Neptune Equester, Monsieur Cadou, Rebeccas Choice, Lively Baron, King Fontaine.
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Well I live on the seafront at Prestwick, a few miles away from the track and there is a guy outside with a long grey beard building a large wooden structure and herding animals two at a time into a queue.
Happy about that but as I am stay opposite the 18th green on the old course at Prestwick I hope the foundations are still intact!!
Ilnamar - how did your stats stack up for this years' Grand National?
I don't think I see a dedicated thread this year from yourself...
It must be 3 or 4 years ago now when you got four out of the first five if my memory serves me correctly...
A legendary thread... no question...
I don't think I see a dedicated thread this year from yourself...
It must be 3 or 4 years ago now when you got four out of the first five if my memory serves me correctly...
A legendary thread... no question...
Unfortunately my approach of being rigid about certain trends meant I ruled out the winner due to having not placed in any of previous 3 outings. Otherwise Aurora's actually performed very well on other trends.
I am reconsidering my approach as to how to weight the various trends - I feel I have been too black and white until now.
Unfortunately the winnings from that race have been long spent - many times over!
I am reconsidering my approach as to how to weight the various trends - I feel I have been too black and white until now.
Unfortunately the winnings from that race have been long spent - many times over!
Harriet Graham @HarrietGraham1 23m
Ayr HEAVY some standing water Hdl 8.2 Ch 8.3 Windy with the odd shower then dry and breezy Thurs pm Fri - Sat Dry wind to ease
Ayr HEAVY some standing water Hdl 8.2 Ch 8.3 Windy with the odd shower then dry and breezy Thurs pm Fri - Sat Dry wind to ease
Wouldn't want the ground heavy so hoping it dries up to soft or good to soft.
I think Big Occasion will be hard to beat if it does stay heavy. I know he fails the age that but given he has already won over a marathon trip I'm not sure it is relevant. Will have a low weight with his claimer too.
Having looked at the decs today I came to the conclusion that Rigadin De Beauchene could have a great chance - he stays, likes the ground, has a nice racing weight and fits most of the trends. The biggest fear would be that he can often make a bad mistake in his races but the fences at Ayr are pretty fair and with a decent round of jumping I can see him going close.
There is no way Rigadin should be double the price of Godsmejudge given that Rigadin looks the more likely stayer of the two. I backed Godsmejudge at Cheltenham and he finished very tired. These conditions won't help him get home. I would be concerned about Rigadin pulling up last time and also a you say he can make a few blunders.
It's a beautiful sunny day at the seafront here at Prestwick. My heelometer test on my front garden leads me to speculate that the going will be soft, good to soft in places.
Thx for the update! Should be perfect for my mount!
Harriet Graham @HarrietGraham1 51m
Good to soft soft in places at Ayr drying all time
wtf is going up there
Good to soft soft in places at Ayr drying all time
wtf is going up there
Jesus, heavy to good to soft already! Be firm tomorrow at this rate!
Weather has continued to be glorious all day here at Prestwick and with sunny and a wee bit breezy conditions forecast till after midday tomorrow the track will dry out quickly.
The track can often get waterlogged but being on the coast with the "salt air" a bit of breeze and some sun, it can overcome all levels of rain sodden ground and frost pretty quickly.
This track at this distance suits front runners or at least horses that are up with the pace throughout. The track is relatively flat with fair fences. You can't afford to get too far behind because when the pace quickens (normally) approaching the final circuit it can be difficult to make up ground fairly quickly. The run-in is also relatively short.
An (extreme) example of what can happen if the front runner is given too much leeway...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-QEJXREZ8o
The track can often get waterlogged but being on the coast with the "salt air" a bit of breeze and some sun, it can overcome all levels of rain sodden ground and frost pretty quickly.
This track at this distance suits front runners or at least horses that are up with the pace throughout. The track is relatively flat with fair fences. You can't afford to get too far behind because when the pace quickens (normally) approaching the final circuit it can be difficult to make up ground fairly quickly. The run-in is also relatively short.
An (extreme) example of what can happen if the front runner is given too much leeway...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-QEJXREZ8o
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