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Graeme83
02 Apr 13 15:26
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 07
| Topic/replies: 9,104 | Blogger: Graeme83's blog
I'm having a look at the card. The favourite is very obvious and will be difficult to beat, but i'm looking for one at a price and i like Quito De La Roque at 10/1. I particularly like my explanation.
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Report GoldCupWinner April 2, 2013 4:37 PM BST
It's a match between the front two in the market for me, will probably back FL on price basis alone.
Report Graeme83 April 2, 2013 4:52 PM BST
I understand your sentiments, and as usual i wouldn't put anyone of with those GCW. I feel though, that what with the GC being run on soft, and Aintree being a week sooner, that i should look for alternative value. I don't want to put my foot in it, but i thought that FL should have waited for Punchestown. I'm content with what i have as he has course experience, ran very well lto and missed the festival.
Report HaylingBilly April 2, 2013 4:57 PM BST
I think I am right in saying Gold Cup runners have a terrible record in this race. I have had a bet on Quito too for this reason alone. Based on Gold Cup runners record that makes FL the biggest challenger.
Report GoldCupWinner April 2, 2013 5:02 PM BST
I suppose there is a chance the Cheltneham runners under perform here. QDLR is not really a horse I have taken to and I was pretty shocked when he managed to win over that trip last time. The second has also advertised the form twice since in slightly lower grades thanthis race. Are you backing E/W?
Report flyingbolt April 2, 2013 5:10 PM BST
Gold Cup WINNERS have a poor record in this.

Gold Cup also rans have an excellent record.
Report GoldCupWinner April 2, 2013 5:17 PM BST
Yeah just checked, Grey Abbey, Exotic Dancer, Celestial Gold, and Madison Du Berlaid all ran in GC and won this.
Report flyingbolt April 2, 2013 5:35 PM BST
First Gold,Forida Pearl,See More Business before that. The list goes on......and tbf regarding Gold Cup winners, not too many have run in it in the last 15 years.
Report GoldCupWinner April 2, 2013 5:49 PM BST
The big recent disappointments were Imperial Commander who needs time between his races and Denman who the track didn't suit. I don't think either of these apply to the favourite this year who won well here last year from decent enough horses.
Report Graeme83 April 2, 2013 5:50 PM BST
It would be difficult to point to previous races and fins a definite trend. In the past few renewels it has went to a horse who has missed or bypassed the festival. Before that, it has went to also rans as Flyingbolt put it. If you look at OldVic, he won the Ryanair before beating Kauto, again, obviously the Ryanair is shorter so perhaps that helped on that particular day. If you throw into the mix that we have 4 C&D winners, then it gets that bit muddier unless you know something. One of those 4 is Wayward Prince at a large 66/1 to 3 places. He beat my horse here on soft by 6 lengths, albeit getting 10lbs.
Report HaylingBilly April 2, 2013 6:12 PM BST
I am going to stick to my theory that Gold Cup runners have a terrible record in this. And add "in recent years". For the last three years horses that ran in Gold Cup have been beaten in the Aintree Bowl by lesser rated horses who missed Gold Cup. Four last year. Add in the fact there is a week less recovery time and I am sticking to Quito de la Roque. Under normal circumstances I would not have him in the same parish as SConti but I reckon there is something in this stat that is worth taking note of. Might just crash and burn but nothing ventured nothing gained.
Report GoldCupWinner April 2, 2013 6:30 PM BST
That's fair enough, you've persuaded me that it may be a trickier race than meets the eye. I would never have backed last years winner. I did notice a few of the winners seemed to be pretty handy at Kempton also which could bring Menorah into the picture. He did run at the festival but didn't have a hard race. Will have a better chance of staying the 3 miles at this course on the faster ground than he did have Newbury. Goes well at Aintree.
Report San Quentin April 2, 2013 6:31 PM BST
cant see why conti is running unless really ready.PN really likes this horse great price should be much shorter iam in big style.
Report proctor strikes April 2, 2013 10:13 PM BST
Wayward Prince  -in and out performer, loves good ground though and a flat track. Question marks on ground and trip against most of the field. 66/1 will do me 3 places in the dead 8.
Report nostaw_01 April 2, 2013 11:44 PM BST
I also think Quito is good value here.  Not a big fan of backing horses next time out after a fall, and while he is a viable favourite I'd sooner pass up evens on that basis and look for something with a bit more value. I am a big fan of TGB as you almost always get a good run for your money but I would worry about how much the Gold Cup took out of both him and Cape Tribulation.  For me that leaves it to FL and QDLR to fight out the finish.
Report San Quentin April 2, 2013 11:47 PM BST
have you had % of winners after a fall?
Report San Quentin April 2, 2013 11:48 PM BST
How do you win anything backing TGB?
Report nostaw_01 April 2, 2013 11:54 PM BST
I don't win much at all but he places enough to win your stakes back! As for the fall last time out thing, just a personal preference. Just seemed every time I was backing shorties after a fall they weren't running to their odds. To be honest I always have a decent Cheltenham and then don't win a dime at Aintree! Much harder to pick 'em I find, hard to know which ones have been trained for these races or are over the top. Might just back horses who missed Chelters altogether!
Report JOCI Club April 3, 2013 12:01 AM BST
My head says Silviniaco Conti to romp home, but my trends say he'll finish second to Quito De La Roque.
Report San Quentin April 3, 2013 12:01 AM BST
Good luck this year .alot of races at aintree are a good spectacle but not form a betting point of view.Bet carefully but enjoy the racing imo.
Report San Quentin April 3, 2013 12:03 AM BST
Why would PN run conti if not wanting to show how good he his?
Report nostaw_01 April 3, 2013 12:04 AM BST
Yeah exactly, smaller stakes here than Cheltenham that's for sure. I have been to each of the three days before and I have only ever enjoyed the Thursday, go every year. Not too busy and the best day of the three for racing IMO.
Report San Quentin April 3, 2013 12:08 AM BST
i will be there on thurs, but couch for fri/sat.Are you going to any days?
Report nostaw_01 April 3, 2013 12:24 AM BST
Just the Thursday again. Good luck!
Report judorick April 3, 2013 1:19 AM BST
nicholls horses seem in much better form now too, evens is skinny but he does look well clear on the book
Report sintonian April 3, 2013 2:40 PM BST
His horses were going great before the festival. Had many winners.
Report thieveslikeus April 3, 2013 5:06 PM BST
Cape Tribulation is interesting.  Was a bit of an enigma as seemed destined to be a failure over fences but has done much better this winter.  I've seen some put that down to the ground but that makes no sense to me, I think he gets crowded out easily over fences, he may actually improve for better ground and a small field here will help.   

Menorah is also very interesting, sharp tracks seem best for him over fences and his record at Kempton and here is excellent, 3 from 3 in all.  Step up in trip is a query but I think he might get it.
Report GoldCupWinner April 4, 2013 9:48 AM BST
I'll probably put Conti in my Placepot but not have a bet in the race. He did win at Aintree last year but CC would be a non stayer at the trip and Join together wouldn't be quick enough to seriously challenge. I think FL could use his speed to win this.
Report judorick April 4, 2013 2:38 PM BST
Cue Card should have run in this

would have shitt up
Report GoldCupWinner April 4, 2013 2:40 PM BST
Conti just under performed there. Didn't jump nearly as well as he can and would have won with a better round. Surprised he finished so close after that mistake.
Report HaylingBilly April 4, 2013 2:46 PM BST
GCW - the dreaded Gold Cup stat mate........its a step too far I reckon.
Report Graeme83 April 4, 2013 2:54 PM BST
Well in GCW. I'd say that First Lieutenant was just tougher. It's easy to look at Silviniaco and make excuses, but FL was there and he didn't have an easy race at the festival himself. The best horse on the day was the winner.
Report Swagger April 4, 2013 10:14 PM BST
I don't think SC can have any excuses, he was beaten by a better horse on the day who travelled and jumped better. The big difference between First Lieutenant today compared to the Ryanair, other than the trip obviously, was his jumping. By his standards, it was very sloppy and poor at times in the Ryanair but his jumping was exceptional today which i would put partly down to the sticky ground at Cheltenham as he is a very ground dependant horse and the step up in trip assisted. I have to hold my hands up as i thought he wasn't an out and out 3 mile+ staying chaser but it was his stamina coupled with his better jumping that won him the race today. Ironically I think it turned out for the best that he missed the Gold Cup as he would have hated the ground and that race could have bottomed him out and left its mark. He did well to win today given that in previous years his form dipped significantly after the Cheltenham festival so he would have been feeling the Ryanair as much as SC felt the Gold Cup.
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