But will he get in.......?

sorry - 5 pounds not 4!

Nice post. I am guessing he may just struggle to get a run though. Depends how many of the Irish run at Fairyhouse and how soft the ground goes, but my guess is Soll with 40 on his saddlecloth. Will keep VB in mind though just in case...42 to place atm and refunded if balloted out

He hasn't done much since though has he?

He is not Mr consistency -  but have a look at  his close 'running on' third to Monbeg Dude over 3m3f in November with the likes of Chicago Grey and Teaforthree trailing in more  than 25 lengths behind! And Monbeg Dude won the Welsh National next time out! Last month he ran a most gutsy race at Sandown when second to On Trend on going that was too heavy even for him. He jumps and stays and there is every reason to expect that the National trip will allow him to show his full potential.

However you would have thought that if he was well handicapped and a National snip of any kind connections would not have struggled to get him onto a mark to guarantee his line up.

Just to add connections know it`s around the 137/138 mark where the cut off point is. So why is the horse not up there? The trainer has Imperial Commander as top weight so he must have had an angle on what mark would be there or thereabouts and 131 is way low.

I am not suggesting that he is a handicap plot ; just that if he does squeak in, he will have a chance second to none!

Fair enough aft

He did run well at Cheltenham. But he's running of a good bit higher mark here and he didn't win there. Nigel TD has seemingly always thought a lot of him, he's been the subject of several big gambles all unsuccessful) but I just don't see it. I don't see him as an out and out stayer either, think 3.5m is his absolute limit. Though on the plus side he is one of the runners from last year's race who has a better chance of improving on his performance:)

You could make a similar argument on a line through T43 for Harry The Viking, who ran 2l second to him at the festival over 4 miles at level weights. He hasn't done much since either. I wonder whether these from lines really show the "vikings" chance is under-rated, or more likely that Tea For Three is over-rated.

Agree Barry. 3m2f is a far as he wants. He had a prep over hurdles going into the race at Cheltenham back in Nov, he was primed for it, looked the winner the whole way until about 2f out where he emptied.

Of course as a handicap one can make an arguable case for most (if not all) the entries, but in contrast to HTV (who has not run within 26lb of that festival form since and was pulled up behind VB in November), apart from his 'annual flop' in the Welsh National, VB has run above his current handicap mark on all of his other four outings this season, generally running on stoutly but outpaced. Although I agree that HTV is very well  handicapped relative to that festival run, on the balance of probabilities I would rather have my money on VB!
The admirable Teaforthree is as you say not so well treated on account of his brave second in the Welsh National.
However I cannot agree with you regarding the stamina of VB. He has always been crying out for five miles (imo) and I believe connections are of the same view!

In the hurdle race first time out I thought he stayed on very strongly, only giving best to the winner who quickened clear! It is all a matter of opinions!

Barry
Just  for the record VB was not on a lower but on a marginally higher mark (132) at Cheltenham behind Monbeg Dude.

Hi Aft - he was off 132 at Cheltenham and will run off 134 here, 2lbs higher. He's been given 1lb lower but with IC running he will remain 3lb out of the handicap. {flaps anorak hood triumphantly!}

I agree regarding connections view of his stamina. I think they are wrong, but time will tell.He didn't look full of running at the end of 3.5m at Haydock to me.

Barry
I well understand what you say - my post acknowledges that VB is LIKELY to be marginally out of the handicap (if he is lucky enough to get a run).
The situation will not be determined however until final declarations and, whilst you may choose to make the assumption that IC (and/or WAF) will be among the acceptors, this is speculation rather than fact......IC could well fall lame or sick before Monday!
If nothing unforseen does happen, you will be correct that VB will be carrying two pounds more......but whether such a slight additional burden really justifies the assertion that "he is running off A GOOD BIT higher mark here" I will leave for others to judge!
Time to buy a new anorak I think!

lol, fair enough. IC is definitely an intended runner though so I think if you are betting at this stage you have to work on the assumption he will be declared and the weights won't be going up. I concede it's not completely impossible that they will. And you're right, 2lbs isn't a lot.

I don't think he would stay the trip in a horsebox, but good luck with it anyway. You've made some very good points, and I would concede that there are several horses half his price that are harder to make a sound case for.

I know which one Nigel thinks is going to win though:)

Barry
Thanks for your kind words.
Although it looks unlikely, I do hope VB might 'squeeze in' so that we may all possibly discover if he is an out and out stayer or not.
I am very surprised at your view on his stamina  but respect your opinion.
I would consider that IC is the more likely to need the horsebox by the time they reach the home run!
Here's hoping they all come home safely.........that is all that really matters at the end of the day.

Amen to that.
The Scottish National must be an option for VB if he doesn't make the cut here? I'm sure he'll get a chance to prove his stamina soon enough even if it's not next week.

I hope IC is on a going day. He didn't want to know last time he was at Aintree, but I think he's always been best fresh. You can't be certain of his stamina for sure, but the way he worse down Denman at the end of a brutal gold cup in soft ground screamed stayer to me, and most horses stay a bit further when they get to his age. So I'm pretty hopeful. And let's face it, on his best form he could pick this lot up and carry them.

On IC's best form this lot wouldn't even see where he went! :D  Doubt we will see him quite that good again but think he is almost certain to stay the trip as long as he jumps the fences/steers clear of trouble/stays sound.  VB on the other hand would not seem to be good enough or stamina laden enough even if he got a run.

Barry
I would not disagree with what you say about IC.
I filled my boots with the 33/1 nrnb as I think he was an absolutely stonking bet at that sort of price.
I just have the niggling doubt that 4m 3f may be a tad too far for him, although his dam being a Le Moss does give me greater hope.
Lets hope he gets a clear run anyway and puts up a good show.

watering by the sounds of it.

5 need to come out for VB to get in.  So a run is unlikely.

At least he might make 'the reserves'!

Aft - I  backed him last year at a huge price in anticipation of a good run for my money (even as a novice) from the front - alas, he came a cropper at the first but I'll have him onside if he does make the line-up, as with an extra year behind him, he might be mature enough to surprise a few people, as he is usually a fluent jumper.

Better ground and a 6lb lower mark than last year will also help, and he's far from a forlorn hope in my view.

PS - Viking Blond is 210 on here (I'll save my bet for Thursday) but Soll is also a huge price at 85 (needs just two to drop out) and his fencing was outrageously good at Sandown recently.

NG
It is nice to know that I am not entirely alone in believing that he is grossly overpriced and underestimated!
A shame he is going to miss the cut.
(Soll not bad value either)

It's a different course to the last time he came to Aintree. Probably wasn't suited tothe sharp tack as usually gets stuffed at Kempton too. National is more galloping.

Imperial Commander that is.

I don't buy that at all GCW. I was there that day and he was just in a right sulk, didn't want to know, and didn't jump a fence properly. But the race was an afterthought, and he's always needed to be fresh. Hopefully if he's in the right physical shape, that takes care of the mental side. I think we'll know very quickly if he's going to get into the race. I think the track will suit him though.

Well! There may be hope yet for VB.....
Another couple of defectors and NTD will have all of his three in the race.
Here's hoping!

Well Soll is definitely in, have to say I would really appreciate one more dropping out as have a huge green on Backstage, don't think he will win but its worth a pint or two if he gets in and I can lay off. Viking Blond would be a bonus

Any thoughts on any other horses to drop out? No news at the moment

he's either in or 1st reserve ,good luck

Viking Blond is number 40.

he's in at no 40

Phew! That was a close shave!
Now just remains to see how far he wins!

:)