IRISH LINCOLN HANDICAP - Curragh Sun 24 March

Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Irish Lincolnshire Handicap (http://tinyurl.com/dx4thlj):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 5-10-77
5yo: 2-10-58
6yo: 1-4-42
7yo: 1-1-22
8yo+: 1-4-20
7 of 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 though they represented 61.6% of total runners.
The one winner aged 8+ had finished 2nd in previous year's race while the winners aged 6 & 7 had both finished in first 5 in a group 3 at the Curragh previously.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 2-8-56
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 6-7-46
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 2-14-117
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0 have won 6 of last 10 from just 21% of the total runners.
Top weight: 60940000038 (0-2-11)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 2-9-60
Horses rated 84 to 93: 8-12-81
Horses rated 83 or lower: 0-8-78
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 84 to 93, they represented just 37% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners were having first flat start of the year (2 exceptions had run once on Dundalk all-weather)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 84+ on last turf start
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 on last turf start
5 of 5 winners aged 4 had run in 2 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 1)
4 of 5 winners aged 5+ had run in 11 to 21 handicaps (winning 2 or 3)
10 of 10 winners had gained 1 to 3 career flat wins
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M to 1M 2F
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) had won over this CD
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had not won a race worth more than 15K
10 of 10 winners had won a race on ground softer than good

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 509009 (0-0-6)
Record of placed finishers from previous year's renewal: 5008012 (1-1-7)
Tote Return All Profits To Irish Racing Maiden winner (Tandem): 900 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners had last start in a 1M handicap at Leopardstown November meeting, finishing 418
3 of 5 winners aged 4 had won their maiden over this CD as a 3yo
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Cambridgeshire, finishing 00
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Summer Fillies Handicap, finishing 05
2 of 10 winners ran in 1M 1F Guinness Handicap at Listowel, finishing 33
2 of 10 winners ran in Emirates Equestrian Federation H'cap, finishing 02

Trainers
Tom Stack (2-3-8) has a fine record in this, gaining 2 wins and 3 places from 8 runners.
Harry Rogers (1-1-5) and Dermot Weld (1-1-14) have each saddled winner & placed finisher.
Mick Halford (1-0-10) trained the winner in 2007.
Jim Bolger (0-3-9) has seen 3 of his 9 runners make the frame since 2003.
Kevin Prendergast (0-1-12) and Richard Fahey (0-1-4) have both managed just 1 place.
British-trained runners (0-1-9) do not have a good record, gaining just 1 place from 9 runners.

Jockeys
Claimers (3-9-90) have ridden 3 of the last 7 winners of this.
Johnny Murtagh (3-0-7) & Wayne Lordan (2-2-9) have ridden 5 of last 10 winners between them.

Draw
Horses drawn in bottom half: 2-18-112
Horses drawn in top half: 8-11-107
8 of 10 winners were drawn 12 or higher.

Price
No strong trends on prices, with 3 of the last 6 winners going off at single figure prices and the other 3 going off at 20/1 or bigger.
Favourites (2-1-10) have won 2 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 0.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
•    Aged 4 that won maiden over this CD & run in 2 or less handicaps
•    Aged 5+ that has run in 11 to 21 handicaps (winning 2 or 3)
•    Carrying 8-9 to 9-0
•    Officially rated 84 to 93
•    Having first start of 2013 (or run once on all-weather)
•    Finished in first 4 on last turf start (posting RPR of 84+)
•    Previously gained 1 to 3 career wins
•    Won over 1M to 1M 2F
•    Never won a race worth more than £15K
•    Won on softer than good
•    Drawn 12 or higher
•    Trained by Tom Stack
•    Ridden by Johnny Murtagh, Wayne Lordan or a claimer