Lincoln, 40-0

Study the Lincoln entries in Jan every year dont do too bad Amenable,Kuala Lipis,Pablo. Captain Bertie for me this year

I remember betting CB when it won last year at Newbury. Think it was Scottish National day. Was in Fuertaventura at the time. Fek I need some sun

been in my book since unlucky defeat in silver lincoln hope Winston rides again

Horses that have raced on the AWT since the previous November have an abysmal record in The Lincoln as do horses that have run in NH races. I would discount these plus any runner that hasn't won over at least a mile (preferably further) and hasn't won or been close up in a Class 2 Handicap. Ideally should be 4/5 years old and have been 1st or 2nd in one of last two runs last year and recorded best RP rating in one of those races. The OR and weight angle is probably skewed since the reduction in the field size but used to be rated less than 100 and carrying less than 9-0 (might be no qualifiers on this angle with compression of handicap).

Having said that the last two winners were 'stats busters' with Brae Hill beating a fair few of these last year (but had been second the previous year) and Sweet Lightening had run in Meydan, so maybe the race is changing in complexion?