Horse Antepost
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The Champiuon Hurdle is a hard race to win any year. We have no Istabraq around, happily he is munching away in County Limerick as far as I know. Hurricane Fly is no Istabraq by a long shot but is he the best around. I have backed him over the last few weeks and was confident I was on the right one as Ruby was very impressed with his last run. but now I am a bit worrried. He is drifting by about 20 points over 4 days. I look at an old tape of a betfair preview night and they go on about a Montjeu not being a battler in a finish if it comes to that. Am I worrying needlessly or should I lay him back at a slight loss. The positive I note is Ladbrokes quoting only 5/4.
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Tobe..i don't know your general betting strategy.From what you've written i think there are 2 ways for you to consider with this wager.
If you've bet an amount you can afford to lose then i would say let it ride. if you feel uncomfortable losing your stake then laying off could be your option. There are many people who back/lay for profit,and others never lay. What you have to ask your self is what betting strategy you are most comfortable with. As far as h fly goes.personally i think his price is now ridiculously short. too many dangers for me. |
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Drifting by about 20 pts???
Dont get that part tober? Dont listen to half the rubbish that comes fron these (bookmaker) preview nights. Back your own judgement & if "your" not happy about something come racetime about your sellection, then lay it (or part) of it off. Granted a little bit of cut in the ground on the 1st day, i fully expect The Fly to win the Champ Hdle (on at 6s ante-p)  |
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I certainly think he is too short in the betting I think HF,Zark and ROR should all be battling for favouritism at around 3-1. I do not think HF will turn around last years form with ROR
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Lay it off.
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the reason he has drifted on here is because of the power special offer money back on other runners if he wins. i'm on at 6's also did it back in april with hills.
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Thanks for the advice guys.
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@Millerracing67.....0.01 is 1 point 0.20 is 20 points as I tried to explain my position.
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It would seem you have played at the wrong time tober.
If all the main players are still in the field on the 12th, i would like to bet the Fly will be around the 2s mark in the morn with the books (pos bigger) |
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Does the pp offer refer only to the anti post bets or all markets? @Miller... I backed Hurricane with the intention of laying him back before the anti post market closed here. As well as the pp offer betfair are now closing the a p market on the 6th March. Bad timing is right. I laid off most of the bet and now have a small green on Hurricane and too much red on the field. Price has disimproved since I did. Just a bad choice of race spoiled things for me. Although Quevega market is looking good for me. Watching Channel 4 racing this afternoon, some commentator remarked that results in Cheltenham might go the way of the bookies and outsiders with the change in the going . Very relevent point I would think. Good ground or good to soft will throw the formbooki out the window and if playing , try find form for your horse on good ground. For novices or bumper horses, some may have flat form , otherwise breeding might help but it may be very wise to follow horses who ran and won in Cheltenham on goodish ground.
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Raya Star will cause the biggest shock of the meeting if good ground prevails on day one. A fast run 2m on decent ground will see this horse outstay anything up the hill. Backed at all rates from 180 down for the last 4 months, unbelievable price.
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Good luck to you factice. Do ot forget to have a few quid place also. The field will not be huge
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is he not better on Flat tracks?
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Thornton misses festival. Looks like Raya Star (if he turns up) ride will be taken by Hutchinson who is two from two on the gelding.
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Only 10 declared at 5 day stage
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Wayne Hutchinson would have been ideal but gutted the horse not running. Can't believe it but that's A/P for you I suppose! Unless the horse is 'wrong' it seems a strange decision with the possibility of a single figure field. An opportunity missed me thinks!
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Would not have made the 1st 4 in my book (Raya Star) not Champ Hdle class.
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Apart from some stuttering little muppet on ATRs Sunday forum, i like most racing fans am really looking forward to the Champion Hdle 2moro. With 3 past winners in the race, i could not see why anyone could make it out as a poor race.
Sitting on a nice ante-post bet with Hurricane Fly (6s Hills) & fully expect him to win the crown back after last yrs below par effort. He looks as gd as ever this season & i think he will get the better of Zarkandar & Rock on Ruby in the big 1 2moro. |
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COME FLY WITH ME/COME FLY COME FLY AWAY
GET IN. |