Horse Antepost
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21 Feb 13
12:14
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20 Aug 02
Last time out a creditable 3rd beaten 3.25l by Unioniste and Hadrian's Approach at level weights, and only losing 2nd in the last 100 yards.
Rolling Aces was beaten the same distance by Hadrian's Approach also at level weights, but has to give Same Difference 12lbs here.
At 12/1 Same Difference represents good value on form, has a nice low weight and represents a stable that won this three years ago with another low-weighted horse.
Rolling Aces was beaten the same distance by Hadrian's Approach also at level weights, but has to give Same Difference 12lbs here.
At 12/1 Same Difference represents good value on form, has a nice low weight and represents a stable that won this three years ago with another low-weighted horse.
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Replies: 31
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Was hoping nobody would post about this but am of the same opinion, Roger. Not only does the form from Newbury look good but his Leicester win makes him look well in off 137 with Vintage Star on a line through the 2nd, who I can't spell.
Should be ideally suited by racing just off the pace on better ground going right handed and that's a good price although the favourite will obviously take some beating. |
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Certainly looks well in of 137, the handicapper would have him on 143 if he could redraw the weights. Just a question of whether he's good enough for the grade. Good luck, well worth a pop at the odds
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If the 2 who beat him at Newbury are RSA types I'd be happy to back him off 143. This is a very open race, though, and I'd almost be prepared to see anything win it.
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I've had to have a bet on this one now
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I've had to have a bet on this one now
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Had 50 quid at the last of the 12s I could see as nobody would lay my offer of 25-1 here on Betfair. Won't go off at that price, Corals were only 8s overnight.
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got 11/1 at VCBet, worth taking, go off shorter
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You're sounding more like Paul Kealy every day.
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I wouldn't know
 , I deliberately do not listen to the press, tipsters, trainers quotes or any other stuff that might distract my thought process |
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Only joking, I can't do smilies, but the horse has a decent chance in a wide open race. The short priced horses have no better chance from what I can see.
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Indeed, Rolling Aces has much less chance imo. Cannot see any justification for his mark
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He's probably got a bit in hand, I believe Nicholls knows the mark of a lot of his horses as he's got plenty to work them with but it's all about the prices for me and he's not got a 4 times better chance than our fancy, who is already 6lbs better in than he should be anyway. Better ground, right handed and a good pace should help too.
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Rolling Aces is a massive place lay for me, no way he has anything in hand off 149 according to my figures
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Good luck, I won't be backing him and see him as a danger so hope you're right. I don't do figures I'm more of a price based punter and like using different angles into races. Trouble with a lot of ratings I've seen is that they very often point to the favourite.
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not this time and not how I interpret them. I don't use one set, I compare tow different sets and when there is a big difference that is useful. When they are the same that's even better. I will be gobsmacked if Rolling Aces is good enough of 149.
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Definitely don't see him as a 7-2 shot. Noticed Timeform had Same Difference 4lbs behind the favourite but surely tomorrow's conditions will suit. My joint biggest bet this year was Katenko at Cheltenham after his 2nd to Wyck Hill and I also had a small interest @ 33s for the Gold Cup so think the form is good but not sure about ground and track being ideal for him and you need everything in your favour at that price.
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Who is top of your ratings in this and where does Same Difference come out?
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I rate them like this, just note the higher the better:
Wyck Hill 4 Rolling Aces 3 Nacarat 13 Opening Batsman 1 Same Difference 8 Duke of Lucca 6 Quinz 14 Roberto Goldback 8 What A Friend 2 Summery Justice 4 Hectors Choice 7 Mister Hyde 7 Quantitative 0 So Quinz is actually top rated followed by Nacarat and Roberto/Same Diff FYI I only back them when they get at least an 8. Preferably 10 plus. Well refreshed was 14 in the National Trial, Rigadin next on 9. |
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Hope Our Island comes out well in the Eider.
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will check
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Our Island 6
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He was one I thought could be in the finish but don't think I'll be playing much unless anything comes to light.
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7-1 now with Bet365.
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nice!! we got the value
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Just the hard bit now.
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well I'm rooting for Quinz mainly but will happily take this one
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Absolutely wide open, couldn't fancy anything strongly. Lots of horses with back form in the race, some who look out of form and almost finished and some young horses with presumably loads of upside for the future.. That could describe loads of the big handicaps but really does look tricky.
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Rolling Aces out from 4.5 to 5.6 on the day of the race market, was 100/30 with the firms yesterday, already negative in the market
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I agreed with the opening poster when i had my initial look at the race only got a bit matched at 14.0 before i could look properly and the price has completely gone and now looks a wee bit short as could see him getting swallowed up but happy to have a bit on. I could see this being a very hot pace so i will also have a few small plays on the closers Duke of Lucca (14.0), Roberto Goldbeck (17.5) and What A Friend (36.0) all of whom are massive prices given the novices who head the market might not be that good and/or well handicapped. I see the angle with Quinz and Nacarat and obviously Kempton usually suits handy horses but i could see a burn up here one the pace and have a feeling it could go to a closer. Just my opinion - good luck with your bets
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My reasons for opposing the two favs could be right or wrong. Wyck Hill is a proper dour stayer, drying ground on a speed track might expose a lack of pace and I think Rolling Aces has been given a pretty stick handicap mark on this step up in class
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I came to the same conclusion earlier tonight about the fav. The going change from his last two wins could change everything.
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