Horse Antepost
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From the early prices it looks like a two horse race with Wyck Hill and Rolling Aces. Wyck Hill has the best form going into the race having beaten Katenko by 4l so is the obvious favourite. Rolling Aces had put Opening batsman firmly in its place but at the prices there is no real value, considering 3/1 and 7/2. Looking for value elsewhere...
The two I like are NACARAT... QUINZ
Nacarat loves the course, and has an excellent record in the race having won it twice and placed twice in the last 4 years, so has to be respected and ground is not heavy so will like the ground. Next there is Quinz ... a long lay off but won this race 2 years ago was on 11 stone then now on 10st 9, if he retains his ability has got a decent chance. Stable also have DUKE OF LUCCA there is a risk only one of the two will turn up... but connections have to be respected.
A small mention to Hectors Choice who came second in the race last year and has each way claims
But the two I like are NACARAT and QUINZ
Would be good to get views and selections on this race.
Good luck
The two I like are NACARAT... QUINZ
Nacarat loves the course, and has an excellent record in the race having won it twice and placed twice in the last 4 years, so has to be respected and ground is not heavy so will like the ground. Next there is Quinz ... a long lay off but won this race 2 years ago was on 11 stone then now on 10st 9, if he retains his ability has got a decent chance. Stable also have DUKE OF LUCCA there is a risk only one of the two will turn up... but connections have to be respected.
A small mention to Hectors Choice who came second in the race last year and has each way claims
But the two I like are NACARAT and QUINZ
Would be good to get views and selections on this race.
Good luck
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backed both of these yesterday, posted on big races thread today
will have a little on Roberto Goldback too
also backed Quinz for the National at 140, he's in the race and if he did win the race on Saturday he would obviously shorten
will have a little on Roberto Goldback too
also backed Quinz for the National at 140, he's in the race and if he did win the race on Saturday he would obviously shorten
Yes it would be silly to dismiss Nacarat, very fair price.
Quinz although set to carry 5lb less is still off the same mark that he won it off. That would suggest this year is a better race. After that he seemed to have a bad experience in the National ( surprised he's been entered tbh ) and his form tailed off very badly. Now been off 18 months. Clearly he looked at one stage as if he was going places but I'd actually want a bigger price than 16s.
Boring I know but Wyck Hill still looks well ahead of his current mark ( 15lb better off with Katenko having beaten him? ) and this has been the target for ages.
Quinz although set to carry 5lb less is still off the same mark that he won it off. That would suggest this year is a better race. After that he seemed to have a bad experience in the National ( surprised he's been entered tbh ) and his form tailed off very badly. Now been off 18 months. Clearly he looked at one stage as if he was going places but I'd actually want a bigger price than 16s.
Boring I know but Wyck Hill still looks well ahead of his current mark ( 15lb better off with Katenko having beaten him? ) and this has been the target for ages.
Rolling Aces for me. Form his last 2 wins has been franked several times and could still be improvment to come on what is only his 4th chase start.
he will certainly need to improve significantly from that mark GCW, he's a lay for me
Nacarats recent form hardly inspires confidence....but he loves 3m at Kempton. The price is definitely worth an e/w in my opinion.
Just to clarify my comment
Rolling Aces won a Novices handicap chase class 3 off 130 two starts ago by about three quarters of a length. He now runs in an open Grade 3 handicap chase off 149 and is about 100/30 or less in the betting and that is enough to make him a major lay for me. Should be 7 or 8
Rolling Aces won a Novices handicap chase class 3 off 130 two starts ago by about three quarters of a length. He now runs in an open Grade 3 handicap chase off 149 and is about 100/30 or less in the betting and that is enough to make him a major lay for me. Should be 7 or 8
Agree. Price is terrible and, even if he wins you wouldn't be picking enough reward up for the risk in such a blatantly open race.
That race has thrown up a good few winners since but admittedly I doubt there is much give in the handicap mark he has been allotted. Hard as of yet to weigh up form of last race but the 2nd did win NTO and is in this race too.
I don't really fancy any of the older brigade.
Nacarat is getting a bit old now.
Quinz hasn't shown any form at all last since his win here.
Roberto will have the handbrake off now but suspect he still won't be fully primed for this.
Quanti is probably being aimed at one of the cheltenham handicaps.
Not convinced Wyck Hill is as well in as the form with Katenko would suggest. None of his other form is near that and there were 6 fences ommitted that day.
I don't really fancy any of the older brigade.
Nacarat is getting a bit old now.
Quinz hasn't shown any form at all last since his win here.
Roberto will have the handbrake off now but suspect he still won't be fully primed for this.
Quanti is probably being aimed at one of the cheltenham handicaps.
Not convinced Wyck Hill is as well in as the form with Katenko would suggest. None of his other form is near that and there were 6 fences ommitted that day.
I've backed Quinz at 26, Roberto at 15.5 and Nacarat at 10.5
I will be trying to lay the two at the head of the market at as short as possible.
IMO, Rolling Aces needs to improve about 10lb to have any chance of winning which would make him nearly a 160 horse and I can't see anyway he is that good. Major lay
I will be trying to lay the two at the head of the market at as short as possible.
IMO, Rolling Aces needs to improve about 10lb to have any chance of winning which would make him nearly a 160 horse and I can't see anyway he is that good. Major lay
Good luck! In all honesty I don't feel strongly enough about anything to bet in the race but since I'm bed ridden with Flu I may as well try and work it out.
Interesting to see how you approach the races and is probably something I could learn from.
Interesting to see how you approach the races and is probably something I could learn from.
only 30 odd years experience of thinking deeply about what makes one horse more or less likely to win than another, not much to learn here 
I think I can see why you picked those three but it takes a leap of faith regarding Quinz. I'm probably being harsh on Nacarat to rule him out on age alone as he does have a fantastic record here. Roberto Goldback will probably be trying now GN weights are out and only 4lb higher than Ascot win.
P.S. Thx. I'm over the worst, the shaking etc. Just my energy is zapped very easily when I move about. Hopefully be recovered by tomorrow or Saturday.
P.S. Thx. I'm over the worst, the shaking etc. Just my energy is zapped very easily when I move about. Hopefully be recovered by tomorrow or Saturday.
GCW - here's hoping Nacarat will make you feel better on sat.
I have a strong feeling the good going is not going to suit Wyck Hill. I will be laying him too.
Hey Jud, I do respect your opinions, but you shouldnt be laying Wyck Hill. Old Bridgewater is no mug with his chasers, and this has been laid out for this race. Bridgewater had the Giant Bolster win his handicap race prior to going to better things. Wyck Hill will be primed to probably do the same, especially off 142. He looks like a 150 - 160 rated horse to me.
He has also won on good ground too. The fact its a speed track is probably a negative for him, right handed is what he needs though.
I dont usually back favourites, but Ive been telling my friends to smash him as a good bet at 3/1.
Hope Im right.
The dangers are Rolling Aces and Quinz, if he bounces back. Im hoping Rolling's 149 rating proves too high, against the better handicapped Wyck hill.
Quinz could easily be the surprise long shot though, and is my saver!
He has also won on good ground too. The fact its a speed track is probably a negative for him, right handed is what he needs though.
I dont usually back favourites, but Ive been telling my friends to smash him as a good bet at 3/1.
Hope Im right.
The dangers are Rolling Aces and Quinz, if he bounces back. Im hoping Rolling's 149 rating proves too high, against the better handicapped Wyck hill.
Quinz could easily be the surprise long shot though, and is my saver!
if he front runs I think he will get swallowed up, totally different to the heavy he's been winning on
we shall see, I don't think he has much in hand from 142 having started the season on 109 or so. I will be playing in play
we shall see, I don't think he has much in hand from 142 having started the season on 109 or so. I will be playing in play
hey Jud, certainly see your angle. Hope you're wrong this time!!! lol
predicting future events is never easy, the fav could hack up for all I know
Hate telling my mates to back the favourite, esp if they lose!
Quinz continues to shorten, as I posted he was my top rated..
Summery justice is interesting too. I love course and distance bottom weights. Hope its just a final prep for Cheltenham. Im still keen on Wyck:)
Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 12,041 | Blogger: judorick's blog
backed both of these yesterday, posted on big races thread today
will have a little on Roberto Goldback too
also backed Quinz for the National at 140, he's in the race and if he did win the race on Saturday he would obviously shorten
took some more at 160 last night and I see this morning all the money down to 55 has been taken, 50 to back now
backed both of these yesterday, posted on big races thread today
will have a little on Roberto Goldback too
also backed Quinz for the National at 140, he's in the race and if he did win the race on Saturday he would obviously shorten
took some more at 160 last night and I see this morning all the money down to 55 has been taken, 50 to back now
roberto goldback 4lbs higher than when he won easy first time out. Blatantly been running down the field before national weights came out. Will now be out to actually win today. 16/1 a very good price.
agree brookie, I'm on him too, anything like his Ascot win performance and he goes close
NACARAT
Since his run in this race in 2010(btn a neck off 158).Has been in 14 races only 2 of which have been at 155 or less - and he has won both of these(inc this race last year).
Has had the time off between races he likes - is on his fav. course, at his time of year and on ground he excels on.
Great chance imo
Since his run in this race in 2010(btn a neck off 158).Has been in 14 races only 2 of which have been at 155 or less - and he has won both of these(inc this race last year).
Has had the time off between races he likes - is on his fav. course, at his time of year and on ground he excels on.
Great chance imo
He ran well, better than i imagined tbh, and jumped with great alacrity. Just cannot fancy him for the Narional after his last effort there, know what I would do now.
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