BEST TIPSTER Tom Seaggal... WILLIAM WISHES, FLEMENSTAR and TIDAL BAY

Cheap shot.

the real question should be is there any point in ante post betting, to me there,s just no value in it.

I think there is a lot of value... its just a case of not being too smart... I like Segal... but sometimes his thinking is way too adventurous.

and I dont think its a cheap shot ... the RP do rate him as the best tipster... and I think he has to live upto it.

to be fair to tom seagull he has to put up these ante post tips to sell more r.posts on  the "quieter " tuesdays  ,as for the champ chase i dont think he would have put a  bet up  in the race if it was up  to him as its not his type of betting race , he is much better in the big handicaps  on the day ,

For what and when did he put up Tidal Bay?

grand national !

And was that after the weights released? If so at 25s that he was with Billys after it was known he was 9lbs well in was a very decent bet. Not many horses have the high class chase experience he has.

For the Gold Cup so Flemenstar hasn't that much experience, but as much as the front 3 in the betting and every bit as talented. At the price at the time, not an unreasonable pick.

William's Wishes - on a hiding to nothing and went for an e/w option

Pointless thread imo

I think he also had Flemenstar NRNB or NRFB with Chandler. He's obviously a good tipster and his Ante Post record at Cheltenham isn't bad either but he probably has to tip in races he doesn't want to in order to sell papers. And, no, I don't follow him but do often make my own selections the day before he does just in case we clash.

An A/P non-runner is a loser.Where is the value in that?

The 1st reply is just about right imo (cheap shot)
He (pricewise) has just been unlucky with those 3 picks.
Not that i ever thought Flemenstar was a Gold Cup horse myself.
I like a play in the ante-post markets myself & have landed some crackers over the years, as you dont need a high % of winners to make profit from it, due to the big prices you play at, its a high risk play, but not a max bet play (in my book)
Like all forms of punting, its full of highs & lows.
Touch wood, 2 of my 3 ante-post bets for Chelts are looking gd, Sir Des Champs 12s fot the Gold Cup & Hurricane Fly 6s for the Champ/Hdle.
Fingers X it stays that way, as i think both will win.
As a final passing shot, it really does Peee me off that some idiot punters want to slate a fellow punters for some bad luck with ante-post tips.
Get a grip

Precisely, three tips identified and sadly none can prove him right or wrong due to illness or injury, yet somebody uses it as an opportunity to have a dig. Sad individual.

Where were they when he tipped Newmill and Star De Mohaison both at 33-1. Over the years Segal would be well in profit on his Antepost selections.

Stats to prove this ?

My point is that his selections are risky to begin with ... would you pick Tidal Bay... if he was going for the World Hurdle and Aintree with the 3 week gap also bear in mind he had a setback and missed an engagement that was seen as a prep for Chelt.... or Flemenstar given that its quite clear on his previous runs he is better over shorter... as for William Wishes was a silly bet even each way... nothing going to touch Sprinter Scare... your realistically fighting for two places.

Solwhit, World Hurlde? might go for Aintree as connections feel its a more suitable target and may bypass festival...

So, In terms of ap betting... very risky... just suggesting he should pick horses that atleast are likely to have a sole aim for the race...

As for his ap portfolio... I think (off the top of my head) he only had a couple of winners out of 20 odd tips over 4 days of the festival last year... Those looking back at Newmill and Star De Mohaison ...was a long time ago.

So not a cheap shot.

Past 7 years Newmill 33-1 SDM 33-1,Soldatino 16-1 Imperial Commander 16-1 I cannot think of others but there are 98pts there and he does 10 races at Chelt Ante Post so this covers 10 years selections.

Grand Nat Numbersixvalverde 25-1, Montys Pass can't remeber the price 2 selections a year covers over 12 years

Classics Sea The Stars 25-1 4 selections a year covers 6 years.

It's easy to pick holes after things have gone wrong on AP selections.

I agree with you IDB that his selections have not looked great this year but he has to pick something in these races.

Steamship, I think Segal is a very good columnist... I enjoy reading his views on races and I think he had quite a few good runs in the last 5 years (which do get publicised)... but dont just look at his winners... like all tipsters he has losers and a lot of them. So we cant get rosey eyed because of big priced winners... but its really the gap between winners that counts he is not consistent enough in the last couple of years. Since he has joined Ladbrokes... he just seems to tailgate their prices and loses as a result.

But this  thread is about his antepost strategy this year... its littered with holes I wont be suprised once he has finished his Chelt column in March only 50-60% of his horses turn up to their intended targets... and maybe (if your lucky) one wins... if you think that its good ap betting.. then thats fine.

As their is such a wide audience of followers he would do much better if he went back to basics... core of antepost racing is not just the price its looking for a horse that has proven ability around either the course, distance or has been primed for the race or has that experience which gives him the edge... all this AND has been overlooked by the bookies and hence the value its just not the latter. You cant just go for something because its 14/1 somewhere and 8s somewhere else and think you have some value. Sometimes he is clutching on to some string of form that he emphasises will make as massive difference but his focus is the price... in a race that is a month away...

An experienced Ap punter will always lose more from a horse that has something to prove rather than a horse who has already proved it. Its not always that way but shift is generally towards the latter.

He tipped al ferof 20/1 supreme, captain chris arkle 25/1 and first lieutenant Neptune in 2011

what a star !

If Ladsbroken are allowed to continue to buy out the remaining independents and put the best tipsters on their payroll and have a legal right to put slot machines in the shops they currently have, then racing as we know it will die a slow death. Sometimes I wonder what the monopolies commission actually gets paid for. The betting industry is now mainly an accounting exercise and a fight for every pound of turnover. Sponsorship of sporting events is now saturated by either bookmakers or alcoholic drinks companies. The tendency to link sports betting with unfortunate people prone to addiction is doing untold damage to the very fabric of society.

Toms portfolio is as follows

Flemenstar 12/1
William wishes 25/1
Solwhit 16/1
Unioniste 12/1
Cotton Mill 33/1
Fago 12/1
River Maigue 16/1
Champion Court 12/1
Tarquin De seul 6/1
Loc Fontana 25/1

The ones in bold are not running.  There are major doubts with the italics as may not turn up for tipped race

I have to be honest I do like Tarquin and Unioniste but nothing else catches my eye but good look to all followers.

I'm sure Taquin was 8/1 and as he 2pts on that, he only needs one winner to come out ahead.

I like that horse, and Champion Court is a solid e/w option, but the only one have backed to very small stakes is Lac Fontana at 33s.

Another dig at Tom Segal from IrisDeBalme. For somebody who doesn't like his tips you sure spend a lot of time dwelling on them. Do you have a vested interest in slagging him off from behind your pseudonym?

no not really... I think he is the most influential tipster ... especially in the mornings... when prices get cut accross the board with most of his selections... and there is always one horse in his selections which has a good chance (Re Tarquin).  But, I just think that quite a few of his bets are too risky for ante post purposes. Having said that his last 4 selection (bar Lac Fontana) have been decent bets where the horse is aimed for that one race.

But he has made 10 selections antepost of which realistically only 5 will run (at this stage) .... incidently during Chelt week he will probably put up four tips a day... probably 26 tips in total (including ap bets) how can any person get a profit im not really sure ... to be honest if you had picked 20 odd horses during Chelt and didnt have a winner during week then I think you should give up betting.

But Im not slating him ... just had an opinion about his strategy and some of his picks... 

Someone would think I just asked Alex Ferguson to attend a post match conference with some of the reactions!

You could easily pick 20 horses at decent prices and not get a winner during Cheltenham, I may do it this year. I've not backed any of his AP selections this year. I do think the A/P markets have been tough this year and he has to put something up at a price.  Segal will probably find a couple of big priced winners during the week.

Flemenstar 12/1
William wishes 25/1
Cotton Mill 33/1
Fago 12/1
River Maigue 16/1

Remaining...

Solwhit 16/1
Unioniste 12/1
Champion Court 12/1
Tarquin De seul 6/1
Loc Fontana 25/1

The RP has a number of tipsters, why are you focusing on PW - are you after his job or something?

Flemenstar 12/1
William wishes 25/1
Cotton Mill 33/1
Fago 12/1
River Maigue 16/1
Unioniste 12/1
Tarquin De seul 6/1

Remaining...

Solwhit 16/1
Champion Court 12/1
Loc Fontana 25/1

Hi Roobuck...

Was just highlighting his ap portfolio for chelters is quite weak ...

So not a pointless thread...

needs atleast 1 out of the three remaining to make it look respectable...

Flemenstar 12/1
William wishes 25/1
Cotton Mill 33/1
Fago 12/1
River Maigue 16/1
Unioniste 12/1
Tarquin De seul 6/1[
Solwhit
Champion Court

remaining...

Loc Fontana 25/1

1 winner...

One  16-1 winner from 9 selections because Flemenstar was nrnb on Ante Post so far +8pts
One 25-1 winner from 14 selections +12pts
So 30pts profit on meeting so far. Doing a damn sight better than me and I guess most on here.

Steamship yes you are right... fantastic results commendable 21 selections and 2 winners so many points ahead...

or like a normal person you can read it as 9.5% win ratio...

Pwise followers will be broke by the end of Chelters... fact.

What do you mean as a normal person? Do you understand betting? How if you are betting at 1 pt per selection and you have 30pts profit are you going to end up broke with 7 races to go?

A lesson for you

The gambler that has 49 winners from 100 bets at Evens loses overall.
The gambler that has 5 winners from 100 but at odds of at 25-1 wins overall.
It is not about how many winners it is about the prices and value.

GREAT LESSON....

theres an old saying ...

...better to have a even money winner than a 10/1 loser...

Iris you sound clueless tbh. PW tips are guaranteed to be over 20 points up.  - how will be people be broke if they have backed all of them?

I probably am as i go on form first then prices... not the other way round.


I think if you are a week in week out gambler that stategy doesnt work... but if you are a pwise follower then good luck with your 20 max bets....

roobuck... which one are you?

I am neither Iris and the only PW tip i have actually backed runs today but it was before it was put up.

I wouldn't dream of criticising anyone's betting especially as I am have a shocking time .

But the point is that anyone who had backed just PW tips at Cheltenham is guaranteed to be in profit not broke as you said. Clearly for some reason you have something against him otherwise why start the thread?

Here is another old saying

A fool and his money are easily parted.

Go and buy Value Betting it's written by Mark Coton who founded PW.

@roobuck, agree with you on the tiday bay national angle. This horse would have probably vied for favourtism by now had it not got injured. There was a massive plunge on it way after pricewise issued the call, I was on at 20s e/w and it was into 14s on betfair before the announcement. I honestly think it would have gone off at 10/1 or shorter as the form is bomb proof.

Everyone gets unlucky with injuries from time to time.  A few of his picks were a bit left field, the WW angle was one I couln't understand myself but hard to be overly critical of the TB pick it would be a monster price now if still a runner.

16/1 winner of the Irish Lincoln to start the flat season - not that I had a penny on it.

great win ... but this thread is about his antepost selections...

Might as well chime in.

I thought some of his Cheltenham ante-post selections were truly baffling this year but he is up against the problem of multiple targets and no bet races like the Champion Chase or Arkle.

The day he picked Fago, I thought 'he'll pick Fago' as at that stage he looked good value but Flemenstar was so left field as to be in the stands.

I think most people on here who've got a reasonable grip of punting can pick horses like any knowledgeable tipster, as ever it's making it pay.

Ante post betting, particularly Cheltenham is a real skill & definitely worth investing mental energy and cash into.
Working out Willie Mullins staying novice chase options gave me a good position this year, liking Sizing Europe in his Champion Hurdle year in the November and latching on to Darlan from miles off the race led to unlucky but worthwhile speculative punts. 
It goes both ways, but to my mind, if you get to Cheltenham week and you haven't beaten the book on a few choice selections, your missing otu big time.

Tom is doing Classic Pricewise on Good Friday.