Horse Antepost
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I'm normally a big fan of Paul Nichols, but I am shocked by today's announcement that Tidal Bay is to be aimed at the World Hurdle. It's impossible to escape the conclusion that this decision, consciously or (I hope) otherwise, has been influenced by what is best for the yard, and PNs ambitions to remain champion trainer, rather than what is best for the horse or owner.
Whatever the conditions, Tiday Bay has much more chance in the gold cup than world hurdle. The Gold Cup is 2.5f further, and that makes a big difference to a horse who just stays and stays. If (and I think it's pretty unlikely) you win the world hurdle, you are always going to be wondering what might have been. Even more so if you're third by a fast diminishing 2 lengths as he flies up the hill just too late.
Tidal Bay beat the Gold Cup 2nd favourite last time out. The time before he gave 6lb and went down by 3 lengths to the current favourite. He has arguably the best form in the race this season, the only other contender (for having the best form, not for the race) being his stable mate. It would be criminal not to run him, his age means he'll never get another chance to win a gold cup, and who knows if you will. He's no good thing obviously, he has no more than a fair each way chance as the rivals are younger and likely to improve, but he DOES have a PROPER CHANCE, and they don't come round often. He's rated 169 and to win a national off that rating would be a bigger ask than a gold cup most years. He has no form which would put him in the frame in a world hurdle. It's obvious what his main target should be.
Paul Nichols has done an outstanding job training this horse, and one can only wonder what he might have won had PN had him a few years ago. It's hard to over-rule your trainer when he's done so well, and I don't doubt that what the horse has achieved since moving to him must be beyond your wildest dreams. But you have to put your foot down and not let this happen. If Tidal Bay doesn't run in the Gold Cup you may regret it for the rest of your life.
For the record, I haven't backed Tidal Bay for either race and haven't backed anything in the world hurdle, I am not talking from self interest here.
Whatever the conditions, Tiday Bay has much more chance in the gold cup than world hurdle. The Gold Cup is 2.5f further, and that makes a big difference to a horse who just stays and stays. If (and I think it's pretty unlikely) you win the world hurdle, you are always going to be wondering what might have been. Even more so if you're third by a fast diminishing 2 lengths as he flies up the hill just too late.
Tidal Bay beat the Gold Cup 2nd favourite last time out. The time before he gave 6lb and went down by 3 lengths to the current favourite. He has arguably the best form in the race this season, the only other contender (for having the best form, not for the race) being his stable mate. It would be criminal not to run him, his age means he'll never get another chance to win a gold cup, and who knows if you will. He's no good thing obviously, he has no more than a fair each way chance as the rivals are younger and likely to improve, but he DOES have a PROPER CHANCE, and they don't come round often. He's rated 169 and to win a national off that rating would be a bigger ask than a gold cup most years. He has no form which would put him in the frame in a world hurdle. It's obvious what his main target should be.
Paul Nichols has done an outstanding job training this horse, and one can only wonder what he might have won had PN had him a few years ago. It's hard to over-rule your trainer when he's done so well, and I don't doubt that what the horse has achieved since moving to him must be beyond your wildest dreams. But you have to put your foot down and not let this happen. If Tidal Bay doesn't run in the Gold Cup you may regret it for the rest of your life.
For the record, I haven't backed Tidal Bay for either race and haven't backed anything in the world hurdle, I am not talking from self interest here.
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Its about opinions,i think world hurdle is weak,and he has a better chance of winning that.Look at Kauto Star last year he found the gold cup 1 race to far.The owner wants to win the GN,and will have two runners at the top of the market.
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3^
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If it's the owner's preference, that's fine. I don't get the impression it is though.
You're right, all about opinions - I think it's no more than an average Gold Cup. The two Irish horses are massively over-hyped. I also think he'll get badly outpaced over hurdles. |
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He's got a big chance in the World Hurdle, Barry....but I agree with a lot of what you've written. Mad not to go for Gold unless it comes up rattling - in which case he should probably swerve the meeting entirely.
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Shall we get a petition going??
I have him backed in both races,but i honestly think the GC is his best chance if the grounds soft. Its a complete no brainer imo,soft ground Gold Cup,decent ground no festival for him. This does smack of trainer and jockey deciding in their own interests. You are bang on Barry,he will always be left wondering what might have been. |
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Right or wrong decision i wouldn't like to say but at least the decision has been made and we have been informed unlike many other trainers who know their horses targets but still give us the might/maybe/who knows comments.
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Totally agree Barry. I belive, as they have "Conti" they want a runner in the WH too. IMHO, he has a better chance of success in the GC.
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imo TB is still a rogue and the change from fences to hurdles and back to fences keeps him interested, i think the WH run will be a great prep for the national this is surely the aim for TB
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Collateral form gives him the beating of everything off level weights in the GC. His hurdle form is a couple of length beating of Crack Away Jack. Hardly worth surrendering a genuine Gold Cup chance for eh Mr Wylie?
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Perhaps Wylie is a pragmatist/realist, perhaps when he watched the Hennessy , he saw as many others did that BW beat him cosy, and perhaps he thought the weight won't make no difference if they met again, and that's before you get to the other contenders.
We've seen this year that the horse's resurgence has shown itself over hurdles too, at wetherby, the way he finished off that race on the run in was very impressive, of course the WH is easier than the GC, there's a non-stayer heading the betting for one thing. If the reason for him running in the WH is for nicholl's to have his horses spread about, how do people think nicholl's and walsh put that to wylie?, or do people think that they were straight about it, and asked wylie if he would kindly give up his chance of GC glory for the benefit of the stable, hardly, I reckon they told him that on balance, his chances of winning the GC are greatly reduced compared to his chances of winning the world hurdle, and the rest is up to him, and just perhaps, with his history with the race, he would very much like to win it again. |
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you mean the form with BW and SDC but what collateral form is there with LR and SC? also mullins said yesterday his horses improove 10lbs from lexus to hennessey, flem is a non stayer is the form of the lexus all that? really?
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The form of the Lexus isn't all that Alleged22, as I said I think the Irish horses are over-hyped. But the key thing to take into account is that that race was over a bare 3m (like the world hurdle). With an extra 500 yards tagged on to make the gold cup distance TB wins in a canter.
Duffy - I don't doubt they've told the owner he has the best chance in the WH. They may even believe it themselves, but if they do, I think they've talked themselves into believing what they would like to be true, even when it flies in the face of the evidence. Connections often do that - you only have to look at the nonsense from the Flemenstar camp this afternoon. They don't want to believe they have a non-stayer so they don't believe it, they keep looking for other explanations. Still, it's all about opinions which is what makes the game so interesting. I'm pleased to have kicked off a decent discussion, and thanks to all for the contributions. |
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if he were mine the Gc wud av bin my pref - as a punter, i fink he wins neither
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fair point Barry, although I think the flemenstar fiasco is an exceptional case of utter stupidity, I wouldn't put the TB situation into the same category as that one.
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I remember thinking the form of the 2011 Lexus was n't all that....we all know what happened next.
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im with the OP Tidal must run in the bigone
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I live 20 miles from the course and it hasn't stopped raining for the 2 weeks since the last meet at which the ground was so waterlogged they had to close the grass car parks. It's inconceivable for me that the festival will be run on anything other than soft ground at best. It makes this decision even more perplexing.
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hes still entered,and i can see them looking at the situation again should this rain persist
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I don't think that paul nicholls would intentionally compromise his chance of winning the blue riband nh race of the year because he wants to spread himself thin to have a chance of winning other races, that's what you believe if you subscribe to the conspiracy theory.
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Id be amazed if he got around in the grand national never mind win it. Could'nt see himtaking to them fences. 1.01 to refuse at Beechers!!!!!!
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joevalue147
10 Feb 13 23:31 Joined: 20 May 11 | Topic/replies: 641 | Blogger: joevalue147's blog Id be amazed if he got around in the grand national never mind win it. Could'nt see himtaking to them fences. 1.01 to refuse at Beechers!!!!!! I think he is made for the National... he was unseated 2011 national but seems rejuvented this season ill give him a second chance to get round and he has a similar profile to Neptune Collonges as a proven grade 1 horse.. I have two concerns one: is that may well be far behind in the first circuit and come in to a lot of trouble in running... thats something they need to consider and two: World Hurdle and National? should be aimed for one or the other really as only three weeks gap between races... but if he was 7th or 8th in the last 4 furlongs of the national... he will be in with a massive shout... oh and obviously Ruby or Daryl Jacob on board would aid his chances. |
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Also I think BarryM has a point... as soon as Ruby rode him and said he was a World Hurdle horse... I think he said in for himself and the trainer... definately not in the owners interest. As soon as Ruby did suggest it... I backed him for the WH as new without a doubt they would go for this race.
I think he will win it... which will make the owner happy... but I also think he should really be in the Gold Cup... the way he snatched the race in the Lexus was impressive... no trainer in their right mind would win a race like that and come to the conclusion that he is World Hurdle horse... has Gold Cup written over it... weak owner really... doesnt want to upset the trainer???? otherwise his horse may be shipped out of the yard ready for some dressage event... |
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no trainer in their right mind would win a race like that and come to the conclusion that he is World Hurdle horse... has Gold Cup written over it...
Yep,suggests to me that his trainer is not in his right mind when looking at this situation!! Its the most obvious thing that a soft ground Gold Cup is tailor made for the horse. And that judgement is based on his obvious form,not my 100/1 voucher  Seriously though,what planet are they on. JUST LOOK AT THE FORMBOOK MR NICHOLLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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If its purely that they THINK SC is a better Gold Cup prospect,which i dont buy at all,as hes plenty of times had other horses against Denman and Kauto, then Just imagine if Sconti gets done by horses that TB has good form with??
Mr Wylie would not be happy!! Unless of course hes just p!ssed the WH,although even then he will still be thinking what if. Regrets are no good in life. |
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By: This user is offline. minig11 Date Joined: 04 Nov 03
Add contact | Send message When: 10 Feb 13 21:32 Joined: Date Joined: 04 Nov 03 | Topic/replies: 83 | Blogger: minig11's blog I live 20 miles from the course and it hasn't stopped raining for the 2 weeks since the last meet at which the ground was so waterlogged they had to close the grass car parks. It's inconceivable for me that the festival will be run on anything other than soft ground at best. It makes this decision even more perplexing. I'm similar it has been relentless. |
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Some people just won't even consider the prospect of anything other than normal spring ground - I also find that perplexing.
I don't want to see TB in the National - the more horses of his quality are encouraged to run in the race, the more problems the race will have imo. That's another debate. So with Mullins having two live contenders, Wylie has the prospect of 3 runners in National and nothing in GC - madness! |
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maybe Nicholls knows Silviniaco Conti is a much better horse than Tidal Bay?
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This isn't a straight forward question as there are so many variables and before I start I'll declare my hand and I am on TB at 33/1 for the WH.
1. They didn't have to declare a preference until nearer the race time but potentially the training situation may force their hand earlier in deciding which race to go for. Obviously any decision on based on a forecast of the ground is going to be guessing at best considering the current weather experience. 2. Obviously RW is a factor the minute he got off after Lexus he said World Hurdle. I don't doubt DJ is a good jockey but that must play into GWs thinking as per the race. It seemed to me that both SDC and SC are higher up the pecking order in Ruby's mind. 3. That said the performance of the horse this season suggests a lively contender for the GC although any number of stats would suggest he has it all do, he would probably need to run to a lifetime best although again stranger things have happened. I am a firm believer that a strongly run world hurdle in soft ground with RW on board will play to his strengths as much as the GC and looking at the two races I can't have the GC being a weaker race with both a previous champion, a Cheltenham specialist and two good quailty second year horses in attendance. The world hurdle in contrast has a favourite who has only come back to form recently, an uncertain runner and a number of Irish horses with no Cheltenham form. I am sure GW is wise enough to make up his own mind no matter what the trainer thinks. This is hardly his first dance. |
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I haven't had a bet but what I will say is that I think the stable clearly think Conti is the better horse. I agree. Just not sure they can arrive at that conclusion over a trip and chase course that he is yet to run on. It isn't inconceivable that if they both ran Conti could be tanking coming down the hill with Tidal being squeezed only to see him run on past a tiring Conti on the run to the last.
If I had a chance of a gold cup or a world hurdle I wouldn't need to think hard. In fact if i thought my horse might place in a gold cup I'd take the chance even if I thought it had a favourites chance in a world hurdle which is a very poor distant relation in my opinion. |
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One other thing about Tidal is that he is the only horse with both the requisite class and guaranteed stamina in the gold cup. Every other horse has a question mark against them in that regard even the favourite who probably does have both.
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I would run him in the World Hurdle all day long, quite simply it doesn't jump well enough to win a Gold Cup. I backed Tidal in the Lexus and it hit a few fences that day but was able to get away with it, it won't be able to in the big one.
There is no Bob's Worth in the world hurdle and he and FL are much better horses round Cheltenham, especially the latter on better ground. No chance on beating BW at Cheltenham if he runs up to form imo but every chance of staying on best in the world hurdle which looks a weak race. |
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For this decision to be justified, when looking at the form book, does TB have to win the WH and Silvio have to win the GC ?
If PFN is confident in SC winning, then maybe Long Run is the horse we should all be looking at. Only a length between them on Haydock form and LR would have improved significantly from that fitness wise. |
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sintonian
Conti would have to win pulling a cart. The bottom line is that Tidal beat the best of the Irish in a race not run to drag the stamina out of the runners, over a flattish course and over a quarter mile shorter having won over nearly a half mile further than that. Nichols is a decent judge for a trainer but like the rest of us he isn't infallible. |
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Assassin
I'd sure like to see the form which suggests that Tidal has no chance of beating BW in the gold cup. |
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TB has a chance of course and although he received weight in the hennessy BW won it very very easily to my eye, and with even more improvement likely, I find it hard to believe that TB would ever beat him........I wouldn't be surprised if it was this performance from BW that has actually left wylie resigned to the WH and not any notion of what SC may or may not do.
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well on that basis the Irish may as well not bother coming over.
Cheltenham in March is totally different to Newbury in November. No way of knowing what will happen,ground is unknown,fitness of horses etc etc. Bottom line is he has the form in the book for a big run in the Gold Cup,that we DO know. |
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Bobs Worth reminds me alot of Big Bucks, just seems to keep finding and you know there is more in the tank. Agree with Duffy Bobs Worth won the Hennessy very easy, will improve, goes well fresh and is even better around Cheltenham. The extra distance will suit the horse even more, obviously nothing is certain in racing but for me if they run to form there is not a chance in hell Tidal bay can beat BW in the gold cup.
I don't think anything can beat it to be honest if it runs to form - one of the best bets you will see esp if it somehow hits 4/1 on the day. The horse I see as its main challenger, First Lieutenant looks like it is heading to the Ryanair also |
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alleged22 10 Feb 13 19:05
imo TB is still a rogue and the change from fences to hurdles and back to fences keeps him interested, i think the WH run will be a great prep for the national this is surely the aim for TB. On what basis(considering his runs/form this season - since being with PN) do you draw this conclusion ? |
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I hope he takes his chance in the GN - has a great chance imo.
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