Horse Antepost
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Could be an academic thread, given the weather conditions but strikes me that there is some value out there.
4 out of the last 5 winners of this race have been Knowhere, Joe Lively, Taranis and Midnight Chase, so we know this race is rarely won by a serious GC candidate.
Much of the field have multiple entries/options (Tidal Bay, Cape Tribulation, Grands Cru, Cappa Bleu, Calgary Bay, Hunt Ball, etc), and several may be put off by the prospect of a real slog in heavy ground (Bobs Worth, Hunt Ball, Calgary Bay, Grands Cru ?). Whilst at the 5 day stage it looks like a pretty decent renewal, if it does go ahead there has to be a decent chance that it will cut up.
The 2 horses I've backed to the same stake - both EW and with Hills are:
Little Josh - 40/1 - target is the Grand National, but isn't qualified until he places over at least 3M. Has won on heavy, and likely to be ridden to place to qualify on the assumption that need to qualify but wouldn't want his mark to be ruined. No idea whether this is the confirmed plan, especially as Twiston also has the Commander entered but will take the chance that he runs.
Wayward Price - 33/1 - confirmed target by trainer after his last win. Looks to be a much improved with new trainer, acts on heavy but apparently doesn't like it, decent 2nd in the Charlie Hall. Originally quoted at 50s but didn't last long.
If TB, BW, Grands Cru and Imperial Commander all run then maybe I'm scuppered but I doubt they all will run, and that the fun of Ante-posting!!
4 out of the last 5 winners of this race have been Knowhere, Joe Lively, Taranis and Midnight Chase, so we know this race is rarely won by a serious GC candidate.
Much of the field have multiple entries/options (Tidal Bay, Cape Tribulation, Grands Cru, Cappa Bleu, Calgary Bay, Hunt Ball, etc), and several may be put off by the prospect of a real slog in heavy ground (Bobs Worth, Hunt Ball, Calgary Bay, Grands Cru ?). Whilst at the 5 day stage it looks like a pretty decent renewal, if it does go ahead there has to be a decent chance that it will cut up.
The 2 horses I've backed to the same stake - both EW and with Hills are:
Little Josh - 40/1 - target is the Grand National, but isn't qualified until he places over at least 3M. Has won on heavy, and likely to be ridden to place to qualify on the assumption that need to qualify but wouldn't want his mark to be ruined. No idea whether this is the confirmed plan, especially as Twiston also has the Commander entered but will take the chance that he runs.
Wayward Price - 33/1 - confirmed target by trainer after his last win. Looks to be a much improved with new trainer, acts on heavy but apparently doesn't like it, decent 2nd in the Charlie Hall. Originally quoted at 50s but didn't last long.
If TB, BW, Grands Cru and Imperial Commander all run then maybe I'm scuppered but I doubt they all will run, and that the fun of Ante-posting!!
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Little Josh got no chance of staying the national trip. I'm doubtful he'll stay 3m properly.
Where did you read Little Josh is being aimed at the National?
Quote from NTD after he won the Aintree race....says that they will come back to Aintree in April but need to qualify him first. It will be on the Racing Post site if you look up the analysis following the Aintree race.
I agree there's value to be had here, well at least that was my initial thought ! Dunno if i'd want to be against BW (must be a slight doubt him showing if the ground is heavy). IC is back here with no penalty and recieving weight from everything and he probably is the bet @8s in the hope he's spot on, it would certainly bring a tear to my eye - just hope he stays in one piece tbh 
Little Josh has yet to prove he stays 25f, i dont want him on my side coming up the hill, same comments apply to Hunt Ball. Quartz de Thaix on the other hand has proved he stays 25f well and seems to be a far more consistent horse this season, he's of interest @25s in receipt of 7lb from Midnight Chase, Weird al and Wayward Prince. Do we know if Tidal Bay goes here, i think the Hennessey @Leop seems a better target (surely cant do both). Of the rest, Calgary Bay wont like the ground, Grands Cru isn't finishing his races, Hey Big Spender is clearly better bossing inferior horses and Cappa Bleu has ground issues and class isssues whilst Cape Tribulation jumps far too low for my liking.
That leaves the fav (Evs), Quartz de Thaix (25s) and IC (8s).
On reflection, i think the fav is short enough at Evs, i certainly don't get the feeling i wanna bludgeon it at that price. IC is a win bet only, if a bet at all, he has had a long time off and that tempers enthusiasm, even though he is favoured by the race conditions, so that leaves Quartz de Thaix and he's my EW play @25s.
Saturday or Sunday i'l be there
Little Josh has yet to prove he stays 25f, i dont want him on my side coming up the hill, same comments apply to Hunt Ball. Quartz de Thaix on the other hand has proved he stays 25f well and seems to be a far more consistent horse this season, he's of interest @25s in receipt of 7lb from Midnight Chase, Weird al and Wayward Prince. Do we know if Tidal Bay goes here, i think the Hennessey @Leop seems a better target (surely cant do both). Of the rest, Calgary Bay wont like the ground, Grands Cru isn't finishing his races, Hey Big Spender is clearly better bossing inferior horses and Cappa Bleu has ground issues and class isssues whilst Cape Tribulation jumps far too low for my liking.That leaves the fav (Evs), Quartz de Thaix (25s) and IC (8s).
On reflection, i think the fav is short enough at Evs, i certainly don't get the feeling i wanna bludgeon it at that price. IC is a win bet only, if a bet at all, he has had a long time off and that tempers enthusiasm, even though he is favoured by the race conditions, so that leaves Quartz de Thaix and he's my EW play @25s.
Saturday or Sunday i'l be there
Good perspective. It's Quartz de Thaix's only entry as well so must be a good chance he shows up and as you suggest is proven over C&D. At the prices and doubts over some of the market leaders there's undoubtedly good value from a speculative EW punt or two.
I think if the meeting is on then TB either runs in this or Cleeve. Most likely to go for this from what I read and if so he could take the beating on very soft ground.
Also like your thinking Liam
Also like your thinking Liam
Could be a great race here if they all turn up. Would give us a great angle on the Hennessy form.
"Bobs Worth is not going to be able to run on Saturday, which is very disappointing for everybody, including the owners. We very much wanted to run, but the good thing is it doesn't affect March in any way."
The trainer went on: "We were just doing a routine check on Monday, which all the horses have before they run. There was something not quite right with him and it's just going the wrong way, rather than the right way. We were scoping him and there was a little something there.
"It's not wise to run at the weekend if he's not going to perform to his best. It wasn't crucial that he ran, but it was always the plan."
Not really been looking at the prices, but did BW drift at all on here in the couple of days they knew he had an issue?
The trainer went on: "We were just doing a routine check on Monday, which all the horses have before they run. There was something not quite right with him and it's just going the wrong way, rather than the right way. We were scoping him and there was a little something there.
"It's not wise to run at the weekend if he's not going to perform to his best. It wasn't crucial that he ran, but it was always the plan."
Not really been looking at the prices, but did BW drift at all on here in the couple of days they knew he had an issue?
No,not missed a beat on here
http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=105130636&selectionId=4487760&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en®ion=GBR&brand=betfair¤cy=GBP
http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=105130636&selectionId=4487760&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en®ion=GBR&brand=betfair¤cy=GBP
The Chemical One at it again. A day or so ago....desperate to get a run into Bobs Worth. Today...he's not running. And we won't run him now til the Festival, as he doesn't need a run.
Disappointing about BW and Tidal but might make race a more attractive betting proposition.
Not looked at it in detail yet but the rejuvenated Wayward Prince and Cape Tribulation, who we know acts on the track, make most appeal - a fair few of the others are potentially regressive or me.
Not looked at it in detail yet but the rejuvenated Wayward Prince and Cape Tribulation, who we know acts on the track, make most appeal - a fair few of the others are potentially regressive or me.
TB still running,and wins if he does,imo of course.
If he dont run,god knows who wins,but whoever it is aint anywhere near winning a Gold Cup.
If he dont run,god knows who wins,but whoever it is aint anywhere near winning a Gold Cup.
Tidal Bay looks a decent price now it's NRNB. Can't see any other winner.
this is a prep after all and those with higher aspirations long term will not be fully tuned for this, they say horses for courses and i believe this stands up more at cheltenham. IC goes well fresh and IF he retains any of his ability he wins this, but preference is for numerous course winner MC, he will be primed for this, this is his GC
I hope Tidal and Grand Crus run. Would give us first link between Long Run form and this years horses.
Still can't see past Tidal assuming he gives his running and assuming IC is not the same horse. Obv if IC is the same horse he's going to hose up here.
That's a big IF tho, prob the training performance of a lifetime - be some reception 
it is a big if, that is why i have selected MC, tidal bay would prob have figured but too many ifs and buts the last couple of days or so
have backed Cape Trib, ground trip and track all no problem for him and has been in the form of his life last 12 months. He may not have as much class as the front two but this is going to be about stamina/being in form.
Wayward prince for me. Was promising as a novice and new trainer seems to have got him back into form. He's worse off with Midnight Chase but I don't think that horse goes well on soft.
I'm gutted Tidal Bay wasn't fit enough for this. Looked a shoe in and we were getting 3/1!
have chanced a wager on Wayward as well GCW,think he will enjoy this today a lot more than some at a shorter price than him.
I've had a bet on Hey Big Spender at 30+. Tizzard says in paper today he returned from a setback big fat and heavy (the horse that is) so it could be he badly needed those 2 runs and the trainer seems to think he is fit now. He's a decent stayer on his best form and in a tricky race I've backed him.
Well done Sint! I have to say I was cheering on the old warrior though.
ReaseHeath
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24 Jan 13 23:41
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Disappointing about BW and Tidal but might make race a more attractive betting proposition.
Not looked at it in detail yet but the rejuvenated Wayward Prince and Cape Tribulation, who we know acts on the track, make most appeal - a fair few of the others are potentially regressive or me.
immense run by IC though - guilty of underestimating him.
Best Gold Cup candidate I've seen today is Katenko
Date Joined: 15 May 04
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24 Jan 13 23:41
Joined:
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| Topic/replies: 8,769 | Blogger: ReaseHeath's blog
Disappointing about BW and Tidal but might make race a more attractive betting proposition.
Not looked at it in detail yet but the rejuvenated Wayward Prince and Cape Tribulation, who we know acts on the track, make most appeal - a fair few of the others are potentially regressive or me.
immense run by IC though - guilty of underestimating him.Best Gold Cup candidate I've seen today is Katenko
I don't think we underestimated IC we all knew that if at his best he was well in but odds are that he wouldn't be. He in fact isn't at his best and it's a shame he didn't win because I can't see him winning another big race :(
I'm not saying you underestimated him - I'm saying I did!
thanks, Sint - I picked two so more credit to you I think.
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