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If all goes to plan he runs off a mark of 140 in this race
Brooksie, do you honestly think they'll not let him win on Friday? If he wins he'll get another 6 lbs at least imo |
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mccoy will produce him at the last and will pretend to make hard work of it to win by a length, they can't put him up anymore than 6 for that.
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So he'll be off 146 then, not 140.
Look at what happened to Darlan after a similar race at Taunton last season. Won a length and up 9 |
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Pearl swan.....just been looking at his triumph run,outpaced for much of it before staying on really well between the last two only to overjump the last and take a novicey looking fall.Still looked as green as grass in that race,looks like OR 146 which would seem lenient if comparing him with grumeti 153.If he,s just below top class a quiet intro may make him interesting come march,interesting.
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Problem is he's the only horse with a mark in this race tomorrow. If they run him right out the back and give him plenty to do so visually it looks hard work I can't see how they could put him up much considering the other horses have no mark to work with.
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But brooksie, runners have collateral form with those who have a mark and TDS is now rated 149. I'd be gobsmacked if he won and he didn't get raised.
Don't get wrong I like the horse and frankly am far more interested as far as the Supreme is concerned. FWIW if Court Minstrel by some miracle got in off its current mark and was in the handicap proper, or close to it, I think he would be my idea of the winner as long as its not too soft. Far better than 131 |
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Loved the way Dark Lover won at Cheltenham before Christmas but must admit he's been hit hard for it. Nevertheless I think he's only once been out of the first 2 and got a feeling he could be very good so I've had 1pt @ 14-1.
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Nice those with double figs but MTOY is an absolutely laughable price now and anyone that backs it will av to be nuts 6/1? 6/1? Yes 6 t fkin 1
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That's almost unbelievable - in fact I had to check oddschecker to make sure you weren't telling porkies
![]() And before the handicapper has had his say! |
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Indeed, unreal, will shorten even further now too
defo gonna go up for that |
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My Tent Or Yours 14 £1.69 £21.97
Ref: 24483957302 Bet matched:05:34 10-Jan-13 14 £4.00 £52.00 Ref: 24483957302 Bet matched:03:54 10-Jan-13 14 £6.58 £85.54 Ref: 24483957302 Bet matched:02:12 10-Jan-13 ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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My Tent Or Yours 5.5 £11.00 £49.50
Ref: 24491725511 Bet matched: 13:25 11-Jan-13 Just to get stake back ![]() I also have a hills voucher with 12/1 on it ![]() |
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Like they said they can't put him up much. 9/2 is very short at this stage, I'd expect you could get 3/1 on the day. He's such a nice horse though he just tanks and a fast run 2 miles he's going to be lethal. Nicky said he came back in this year a much better horse. JP has deffo got the Supreme winner this year.
But if something else jumps the last infront I suppose JP could just buy it in running for a few million though. |
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At work, not seen race. But like who said? And why not?
Genuine questions |
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Racing UK team we're discussing the mark, they said they'd be surprised if he went up much because of what he beat. I'd expect him to go up a few pounds but I'd be surprised and I'd find it strange if they hammered him for today.
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OK so now watched the race.
On his hurdling debut the 3rd beat a 125 rated horse easily. OK he was receiving weight but still prepared to say the performance could be rated 128-130. Obviously as with young horses he is likely improving. MTOY has form beating a horse now rated 149. The handicapper knows he is worth at least twice the winning distance and he was giving the field weight. As I say I will be very surprised if he raises him less than 6. If he remains unchanged you have got yourself a fantastic bet. How good your bet is remains in the hands of the handicapper. How much do you think he'll go up? |
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the handicapper can only really handicap on actual form though. Not on what other horses have gone on to do. they'll put him up 4 or 5 most probably. The handicapper probably wants to put him up at least 10 but he can't yet.
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Paul Nicholls spoke exclusively to betting.betfair about his ante-post plans for the Betfair Handicap Hurdle, a race in which he won last season with Zarkandar...
We were fortunate enough to win Britain's richest handicap hurdle, the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with Zarkandar last year. And we have seven entries this time around. All are possibles for the race at this stage, but some likelier than others. I will update on their progress in the coming weeks. But, for now, I will take you through each one, in alphabetical order. Caid Du Berlais: I was happy enough with his second at Chepstow last week, especially as he ran a bit green on his first start over English-style hurdles. We will see how he comes out of that race and make a plan. Celestial Halo: Was last seen out in the Champion Hurdle in March, and has been out since with a minor leg injury. We would like to run him here, possibly en route to a crack at the World Hurdle, so we are stepping on the gas with him at the moment. Will probably need further than 2m these days but is two from two over hurdles at Newbury, including when winning a handicap hurdle off a mark of 160 in December 2011. Dark Lover: Has been put up a ludicrous 17lb for his wide-margin win at Cheltenham last time, but what can you do? We will have a look at this race for him but he may go to Taunton on January 19th for a valuable open handicap that Betfair are sponsoring, and go from there. Dildar: Pleased me when a running a nice race on his comeback at Kempton, but he has been put up 6lb for finishing second there. He could go to Cheltenham at the end of the month, after which we will know more. Edgardo Sol: We have been mixing and matching over hurdles and fences with him this season, and he certainly wasn't disgraced when third to Sizing Europe and Rubi Light in a Grade 1 in Ireland last time. Currently rated 148 over hurdles and is a possible. Pearl Swan: Showed a lot of promise over hurdles last season and has been out with a small injury this season. But, like Celestial Halo, we are stepping on the gas with him now, as I would love to run him here. My only concern is that the race may just come a week or two too soon. But he is fairly handicapped on 146, and will be getting a Champion Hurdle entry too. The next couple of weeks will tell us where we stand with him. Ranjaan: Disappointing on his reappearance but Ascot showed us that he wants better ground and I think he could be a horse for something like the County Hurdle. I'd like to think he has races in him off his current mark, given suitable conditions. Takes fair going to mention that many horses and say nothing ![]() |
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so in a nutshell he feels he has no chance of winning it with any of them looool.
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Pearl Swan: Showed a lot of promise over hurdles last season and has been out with a small injury this season. But, like Celestial Halo, we are stepping on the gas with him now, as I would love to run him here. My only concern is that the race may just come a week or two too soon. But he is fairly handicapped on 146, and will be getting a Champion Hurdle entry too. The next couple of weeks will tell us where we stand with him.
To me he says quite a lot. |
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I think the handicapper will put mtoy up about 10ib's. Which in all honesty puts him on 150 for the betfair, i for one (and i have as said above very nice prices on here plus a 12/1 voucher in me wallet) would be very happy with that. Zarkander won this off 156, reportedly or rumored as a sick horse, what mark did Darlan run off please
![]() If 10ib is what he goes off, his racing weight i guessing would be in the 11st - 11-5 region . Perfect for a race of this nature!Did i mention i was excited ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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Really? Id be absolutely shocked if he went up 10lbs, could very well but i think 150 would be too high for him to win off and i really lik the horse
Darlan was 146 in this and Was rated 148 after bein 2nd in the Supreme and 151 after hosin up at Aintree I think 150 woud be way too high for wat MTOY has achieved But as i said on another thread it would nt surprise me for him to be left alone on 140 and it would nt be surprised if he was put up 6-10lbs, we shall see on Tues/weds |
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Zarkandar won this off 151 and Darlan raced off 146.
Don't get me wrong I like MTOY and have backed him for the Supreme but a bit premature comparing him to those horses yet. Zarkandar was a dual grade 1 winner by the time he ran in this. |
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I'm excited about this horse aswell
I've had a fair punt on him at 20s for the supreme, but had quite a few big doubles aswell with the likes of Hurricane Fly, Oscar Whisky, Silviniaco Conti. My Cheltenham festival all hinges on him in the Supreme, I think he'll be our new fav when he wins the betfair on the bridle. He's a tank. |
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My guess would be 10 lbs or more.
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But as i said on another thread it would nt surprise me for him to be left alone on 140
All things now considered BJG, if that was the case I'd be at Hills door asking for the 5s. Surely couldn't happen? |
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Not many horse get put up to 150 for winnin a novice hurdle round Huntingdon imo
Think he'll prob go up around 4/5lbs personally but hard to judge |
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Didn't NJH ask for Darlans mark to go down after Taunton ? Fink it did as well - Phil wont want to av the pi$$ taken out of him again, 150 innit
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It was liam but after the weights released for this - I think he eventually ran 2lbs wrong
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One to keep on side perhaps is Emma Lavelle's Claret Cloak, very unexposed, was ment to run before Christmas but was pulled out because of the ground. 136 isn't a bad mark at all and could run a big race.
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I agree about Claret Cloak as long as the ground is good but think his turn may come at Sandown/Cheltenham/Aintree time. He's only 4lbs higher than her horse who should have won the Lanzarote on Saturday so she ought to have an idea of where she stands.
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DUKE OF NAVAN, won his qualifier for handicap races and was rated 127
before that, what do posters think his new assessment will be? |
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MTOY up to 149
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So up 9lbs. Fair?
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Zarkandar won this off 151 having won at both Cheltenham and Liverpool. That form had been franked by Grandouet in the International and Brampour in a couple of early season handicaps.
Our current CH joint fav ran in this off 146. He may be good enough but surprised if there isn't one better handicapped. |
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really like the horse but think 149 is a bit high, could still win off it but nt for me at the price
Zarkandar won it off only 2lbs higher bein a multiple grade 1 winner (triumph and Aintree) Been handicapped thur the revised mark of Taquin de Seuil? (who now we can clearly say needed further and softer wen they met) Won a very average race lto albetit easily and was well held by Chetterbox the time b4 Good look those with double figs as u have value but anyone backin at 9/2,4/1 i think would want their head examined |
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149 was from the sporting life reporter on twitter fwiw, will wait till tomorrow till its 100% just incase he is wrong
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Weights revealed for Betfair Hurdle
Last Updated: January 16 2013, 14:08 GMT Ante-post favourite My Tent Or Yours has been allotted 11st in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on February 9. The progressive six-year-old, owned by JP McManus, reinforced his claims as head of the market with an impressive win at Huntingdon last week. His trainer Nicky Henderson has already lifted this prestigious handicap hurdle four times and is certain to saddle a strong team in search of a fifth. Henderson's possible team includes the revitalised Petit Robin, who was runner-up to Cause Of Causes in The Ladbroke at Ascot last month. Petit Robin has 11st 10lb, 2lb below top weight Celestial Halo, trained by Paul Nicholls. Cause Of Causes, from Gordon Elliott's Irish yard, has been given 11st 3lb, while another McManus-owned horse, Get Me Out Of Here, bids to continue his fine record in this race. He came out on top in 2010 and was second to Zarkandar 12 months ago. Swing Bowler is an interesting contender from the David Pipe stable, having returned from a near 10-month absence to take her 100 per cent record over hurdles to three. The six-year-old mare has a handy 9st 13lb, but would be raised significantly in class. Others to catch the eye include Grumeti (11st 4lb), Dark Lover (10st 13lb), Pearl Swan (10st 11lb), Punjabi (10st 10lb) and Cotton Mill (10st 10lb). Betfair Hurdle sponsors bet: 9/2 My Tent Or Yours, 10/1 Cause Of Causes, 11/1 Cash And Go, Pearl Swan, 12/1 Cotton Mill, 14/1 Ronaldo des Mottes, 16/1 Swing Bowler, Claret Cloak, Court Minstrel, Dark Lover, 20/1 bar |
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11 stone, a lovely racing weight, he's the sort of strong horse that wont be effected by whats on his back for a young horse he's physically a very strong horse. Happy with the 12/1 voucher sitting in my pocket. Just worried about the weather.
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