Horse Antepost
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01 Jan 13
15:29
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Date Joined:
28 Jun 10
Most of us see this horse as a real staying sort but is it possible that at Cheltenham, 3 miles is his ideal distance and the run to the line up that final hill on soft may see him fading while others run on?
This might seem an illogical viewpoint given that he got the distance perfectly well at Newbury but as another Hennessy winner, One Man, once found out, Newbury isn't Cheltenham.
My logic?
I've been having a good look through his pedigree and it certainly doesn't scream out dour stayer. He's out of Bob Back through the line on his dam's side from Kings Theatre. Neither are what you would call stamina laden national hunt types who produce a lot of top class stayers. I went back through the progeny of both from the best down to a RPR of 130. This involved well over a hundred decent quality horses and from what I can see neither of them has sired a top marathon chase winner and it is noticeable how few top class staying jumpers they have produced. Between them they have only produced a handful of horses to get the gold cup distance and a couple each which won over further but is noticeable how many have tried and failed when stepped up to long distance races.
Of course all sires produce anomalies whereby you have a national winner flat sprint bred and one positive element from memory is that on the dams side I think Synchronised came through Bob Back.
Still if it does come up soft I won't be rushing to take a short price on the day.
This might seem an illogical viewpoint given that he got the distance perfectly well at Newbury but as another Hennessy winner, One Man, once found out, Newbury isn't Cheltenham.
My logic?
I've been having a good look through his pedigree and it certainly doesn't scream out dour stayer. He's out of Bob Back through the line on his dam's side from Kings Theatre. Neither are what you would call stamina laden national hunt types who produce a lot of top class stayers. I went back through the progeny of both from the best down to a RPR of 130. This involved well over a hundred decent quality horses and from what I can see neither of them has sired a top marathon chase winner and it is noticeable how few top class staying jumpers they have produced. Between them they have only produced a handful of horses to get the gold cup distance and a couple each which won over further but is noticeable how many have tried and failed when stepped up to long distance races.
Of course all sires produce anomalies whereby you have a national winner flat sprint bred and one positive element from memory is that on the dams side I think Synchronised came through Bob Back.
Still if it does come up soft I won't be rushing to take a short price on the day.
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The chances of it coming up soft would be a bigger price than Bob's Worth is to win imo.
Interesting read on the breeding. He looks as though he'd stay any trip to me though. |
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What BW does very well is try - he has such a pleasing head carriage, as for staying it's an interesting point you make, Newbury isn't Cheltenham but he does finish his races very well and has an exemplary record at the track. What he doesn't have is the scope of some of his rivals he will be facing in March and i believe that will prove decisive on the day.
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FB,what price do you think a soft ground festival should be?
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i rate bobsworth a banker he may not be the biggest but he fences well and has not shown any stamina worries to me which rivals liamslips does he not have the scope of sir des champs is the only danger for me and he will have to jump better than in the lexus
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banker??
hes a big player,but the race is a bit too open for bankers imo. 5 or 6 could win the race at this stage,maybe more. |
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I believe with ALCIDE and ALYCIDON in his line, then
he will stay and stay well. |
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I'd say a soft ground festival would be an 8/1 shot at least.
Can't even remember last festival that was soft, it's that Long Ago. |
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if i see 8 anywhere,im punting.
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Other pointers would be BUSTED,MIEUXE, brilliant racehorses with tons of stamina, in fact there are many influences for stamina.
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Then of course there is the evidence of what he's don on the track. Like Albert Bartlett, RSA, Henessy etc.. Looks an out and out stayer, finishing those races with ears pricked and plenty left in the tank.
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One of the few horses likely to turn up that guaranteed to stay.
Wouldn't fancy him either on soft ground, but that wouldn't be down to stamina concerns |
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never ran on soft,so could be a concern if it were soft in march.
he looks like he would have no problem staying though,worthy fav i think. |
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Breeding is only a guide,use your eyes,nafc that Bobs won't stay,only thing that could stop him is bottomless going,otherwise he goes very close.
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“As for Bobs Worth, the Argento Chase [Cheltenham, Jan 26] is his next target, but also provided that the ground there is not bottomless.
“I’m happy to go straight to the Gold Cup,” he said, which is hardly surprising as this progressive chaser was able to win the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November off the back of a long lay-off. |
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bazaar
I'll certainly defer to your knowledge relating to some of those old timers. I note somewhere back in the line that Supreme Leader is in there and certainly has front rank progeny in staying races. That said his immediate line isn't too encouraging. |
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budd
About 6/1 I'd say. I'm talking proper soft not one of Claisse's "good to soft" that is nearer good to firm.  |
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Big price i reckon FB,more like evens imo.
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Blimey. How many soft ground festivals do you think there have been in the last 25 years ?
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Not many mate,but this rain has been around for 6 or 7 months now and has really got into the ground.
How many waterlogged meetings has Cheltenham had on new years day? We are currently in a bit of a freak situation re the weather. |
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It's still the best drained course in the country.
I certainly won't be backing any soft ground horses ante post. |
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yes it does drain well these days,but the current situation shows that dont matter when we have the persistent rain we have had.
Basically its all down to Jan and Feb,and hoping for no rain or snow. |
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I agree with budd on this i really do think we could be looking at softest festival for many years.
Ive heard various clerks and trainers saying the water table is so high due to the summer we had that any amount of rain which courses would usually handle easily is now turning the ground soft. Hopefully we will have a dry spell but i for one would not be at all surprised if its on the soft side come march |
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They say that every year at around this time. We shall see.
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I think the key this year will be the same as every other year since the additional drainage went in. The last 10 days and then the days of the meeting itself will be crucial. 10 days before the meeting it could be unraceable but if we get a couple of dry warmish weeks then Claisse will need to water.
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From what I've seen he'll stay every yard and more. Stayed 3 miles as a novice hurdler and doing his best work at the end of The RSA Chase and Hennessy. Can't actually see any chinks in his armour and I'd be happy to back him if he goes straight there. No need to go for The Argento and I reckon Henderson is too astute to leave The Gold Cup behind in a bog in January. 3-1 is a very fair price for a horse who holds all the horses at the head of the market on direct or collateral form except Long Run, who I'm pretty sure he's better than. Given luck in running he'll take all the beating.
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EXACTLY,EETERNALOPTIMIST.
It doesn't matter how much it rains in Jan and Feb.If it's dry in the 10 days leading up to the meeting it will not be soft. |
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He doesn't hold Silviniaco Conti Booster, he was behind him in the Feltham last year.
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well ive never thought it would be a soft ground festival at this stage of the season,never.
but then ive never seen this much rain falling in the last 6 months. Of course it matters how much rain we have in Jan and Feb,its currently waterlogged!!! What do you think the course will look like if it continues to rain in Jan and Feb?? I dont care how well it drains,you would have so much water it would take a lot more than 10 days to get it anywhere near good ground. |
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Budd, Chelt has a fantastic drainage system(some say too good!!) you can Check back how quickly it drains on Turftrax.
If you look at 2011 and Long Run's Gold cup victory on what was called good, but everyone says it was virtually g/f ground registering around 8 and over(and that was after they slung around 11-13 mm on the course the weekend before, yet at the beginning on the month(the 2nd to be exact) they were giving the old course as soft(g/s in places) with a reading at just under 6. Dont forget we've virtually had two months of rain with barely a day inbetween of dry weather, it really is about the weather the last 10-15 days before the festival |
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yes,i know all about the drainage system.
Anyway,lets wait and see,bit fed up with discussing it now,need to talk about the horses really. |
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Imho
On Good(or nearly g/f) its a Bobsworth/SDC shoot Out on g/s then you could add SC Softer than that then its Tidal Bay from Long Run!!! |
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Just noticed that BOBS WORTH sire traces back to MAN O' WAR, which
surprised as stamina not usually an influence (to my way of thinking) with American bred horses, however, MAN O' WAR won 20 of 21 races and had a strong stamina influence, (you learn something every day) cause of a re-think on my part, the stamina mainly comes through the dam. |
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We had that discussion a while ago on here and that was the prevalent view although someone not unreasonably pointed out that horses like humans take an equal number of chromosomes from both parents so it would be logical to question that. I'd certainly like to know the logic behind the view. Even so, that being the case the dams side is even less of a stamina influence than the sires in this case.
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You have got to remember that the thoroughbred is descended from just three stallions,
or so we are informed, so why are some sprinters and some stayers? In BOBS WORTH line is a sire named BALLYOGAN who was an influence for speed, but there are MANY MORE influences for stamina, as regards going I have always looked on that as a red herring, because in the wild the horse coped with ALL types of going and obstacles when in flight, those particular idiosyncracies are inate. |
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Despite all discussion on here about ground preferences et al, we must not forget, as punters, the only advantage we have is that we can choose our battlegrounds. IMHO the only conclusion i can draw from the Christmas Period is that we hold fire on the Gold Cup unless we fanct either the ground to be soft, for Tidal, or that we forgive SDC his jumping errors, not much upside in backing Bobsworth at his price and you'd think if all turned up that backing SC or LR wouldnt be worth the risk at the prices
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When you say going is a red herring what do you mean?
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It is not something I worry about when making an ante-post bet,
I am trying to forecast the winner of a future race, not the weather or going on that date. |
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Well unless I had good reason to suspect that the ground was highly likely be a certain going as is often the case at Cheltenham or I was sure that the horse I was backing wasn't ground dependent then it would be a major factor in my attempts to forecast the winner to the extent that I would leave the race alone unless the price allowed for the variables.
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dry weather with sunny spells, predicted for next two weeks
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