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EdwardWoowardWould
31 Dec 12 13:30
Joined:
Date Joined: 18 May 12
| Topic/replies: 2,150 | Blogger: EdwardWoowardWould's blog
IMHO

Hacked up from a useful field at Chelt tother day despite connections feeling he will be better over further

N Schofield  could put him where he wanted then and picked up and carved them apart when he quickened up

The second horse is a very highly thought of animal and cost Tinkler 150k and the rest were very decent animals

Great bet imho from a VERY shrewd trainer ( If JP don't buy it first Wink )

Great story for the owners , it cost buttons
Pause Switch to Standard View Melodic Rendezvous Neptune winner
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Report Workforce December 31, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
Could do with having a proper jockey, one bonus if JP did buy it would you'd get one onboard.
Report stevo1 December 31, 2012 9:57 PM GMT
Imo MCCoy is certainly not one the best at Cheltenham in recent years.
Report Workforce January 1, 2013 11:03 AM GMT
Agree with that, but he, and almost everyone else in the weighing room, are a damn sight better than Schofield.
Report abbott January 2, 2013 1:06 AM GMT
Pity connections are targeting the Supreme.
Report abbott January 2, 2013 1:06 AM GMT
Pity connections are targeting the Supreme.
Report Moose January 2, 2013 11:44 PM GMT
I backed MR at Cheltenham and came away from the race thinking he wouldn't beat the 2nd again. May have to re watch the race
Report Workforce January 5, 2013 2:52 PM GMT
Nice horse with a decent turn of foot. Always baffles me why people think blatant 2 milers should step up in trip. Very fast horse, no need.
Report buddeliea January 5, 2013 2:57 PM GMT
on course for the Neptune,good call from the thread starter,
well done Edward,wish i had listened!!
Report Workforce January 5, 2013 3:18 PM GMT
wish people would stay muddying the waters, trainer said after todays race:

"he will have entries in both races and we will take a view nearer the time."

so not "on course" for the Neptune. If they have any sense they will go Supreme.
Report buddeliea January 5, 2013 3:37 PM GMT
ok sorry,hes not off course then.
Report buddeliea January 5, 2013 3:45 PM GMT
Reckon it will depend on the ground - soft or heavy supreme,good or good/soft neptune.
Looks like he will stay further ok to me.
Report Workforce January 5, 2013 3:49 PM GMT
think this horse will be seen to even better effect on better ground.
Report red and white January 5, 2013 5:09 PM GMT
Can't believe you're trashing Schofield.
Report Workforce January 5, 2013 5:17 PM GMT
Don't rate him at all. Be boring if we all agreed on everything.
Report EdwardWoowardWould January 5, 2013 5:28 PM GMT
Al I can say is before Chelt debut they were convinced another half mile is what the horse wants and better ground so what we have seen might be just the start

9/2 was massive today based on his improvement at home

My friend has one leg and they are buzzing , turned down fortunes fte his second run

Well done IMO
Report Steeplechasing January 6, 2013 7:01 PM GMT
I was well impressed with his pace and, much more, his attitude - looks a proper battler, and have backed him for Supreme with Betvictor (NR-free bet)
Report buddeliea January 6, 2013 9:25 PM GMT
Impressed with all that as well Steeple,backed him for the Neptune this morning on here.
Well at least you get another bet if you are wrong on his race,i wont.
I would like him on my side if he does go supreme though,proper genuine horse.
Report EdwardWoowardWould January 7, 2013 3:32 PM GMT
budd

All I can tell you is the Neptune has ALWAYS been the target up until he won at Chelt where they were worried about it beint too short a trip and bad ground

One of the lads with a leg is a pal of mine and not spoken to him since Sandown ( He is still drunk Cool )

I will ask him if he knows more about huis intended target and if he don't mind I will post it here.

I am absolutely certain this horse will be better over further on decent ish ground , there in prob lies the answer in that it will be ground dependent but for me he is a true staying hurdler who has enough speed over 2m on bad ground

Hope they get to Chelt whatever , I have had a nice bet for the Neptune at 50/1 but not bet it for the Supreme

GL

Ed
Report buddeliea January 7, 2013 5:35 PM GMT
Cheers Edward,any info much appreciated mate.

Does look to me its all about the going,and we may well not know till very near the festival.
Report michael_o January 8, 2013 9:38 AM GMT
Agree with all of that. MR is first and foremost a stayer, and the Neptune is the correct race for him. Wouldn't expect to see him in the Supreme unless the goiing was very testing. And Nick Scholfield is top-class. Wouldn't want any other jockey on board MR or Empiracle....who is rated even more highly in the yard!
Report Workforce January 8, 2013 11:39 AM GMT
"MR is first and foremost a stayer"

This is complete rubbish. Care to provide some evidence? Horse has been winning comfortably over 2m, showing an impressive turn of foot. Has not been getting outpaced, and has not won over further than 17f. Baffling that people think the Neptune is the race for him. Just bizzarre.
Report buddeliea January 8, 2013 12:19 PM GMT
Baffling??

Every year we have horses entered in both novices,some are entered in all 3!!

Connections will know the horse better than any of us,and his next entry will be interesting imo.
Its all ground dependant i think,and their is no doubt in my mind that connections think he will be fine over the Neptune distance,and he certainly looks like it to me.
Report michael_o January 8, 2013 2:29 PM GMT
"MR is first and foremost a stayer"

Workforce, it's not me saying that but his trainer. But you seem to think you know the horse better than him. Ah well.
Report Workforce January 8, 2013 9:00 PM GMT
Would back my judgement of the formbook against that of any trainer, 100% of the time.
Report buddeliea January 8, 2013 9:12 PM GMT
thats fair enough,but its no good if the trainer decides differently,which is the point Michael is saying.
Then it dont matter what you think,in that scenario he aint running in your race!!
Report EdwardWoowardWould January 10, 2013 6:25 PM GMT
Workforce

The "form book" is only part of the puzzle and as he has yet to run over further how can the "form book" help you make your decision

Perhaps bumper winners should all stick to 2 miles because that is as far as the "form book" tells you they have run despite the fact that MOST go on to be staying hurdler/chasers

Do your eyes not tell you ( esp at Sandown ) that the further this horse went the better he looked

After the last he didn't go past the second with an "impressive turn of foot" ( your words ) he actually wound it up and  pulled clear through stamina up the hill

Perhaps you should watch it again ( without the 2m blinkers on ) and think about what "might" happen rather than what you have seen thus far

We simply don't know yet but I would rather believe a very capable trainer who has not got carried away with the 2 wins at 2m than a bloke on a forum who lacks both the foresight / knowledge to see where "natural" improvement might come from.

It seems you have the game by the balls and I will inform my friend to get Jeremy to seek your advice about his target as 100% of the time your judgement is better than his.

Go look at his bumper form and show me this "impressive turn of foot" as I would love to see it.

For me it will "probably" be the longer race on decent ground and the shorter race on bad ground but no doubt if he goes for the Neptune and god forbid gets beat you will be along to tell the world what a mug the trainer is.

Open your mind pal and might I say your eyes also.

Let hope the horse does well whatever and they decide not to sell it
Report stevo1 January 10, 2013 8:33 PM GMT
Market on here says aint going Neptune, if so think you better fill your boots, good luck with whatever route he takes.
Report Workforce January 10, 2013 11:44 PM GMT
Edward

Firstly the trainer is not a mug, he is a very good trainer. If the horse ran in the Neptune I would certainly not call Jeremy Scott a mug.

When I referred to the formbook, I was referring to my reading of the race, not the bare facts that he's merely run over 2m. His turn of foot was perhaps most in evidence at Cheltenham, where he led on the bridle over the last, despite a very steadily run-race. That to me demonstrates speed.

RE Chepstow bumper win - horse barely came off the bridle and powered clear under minimal urging. As Timeform put it, he was "always cruising in mid-field and quickly left largely NH-bred rivals for dead when his rider let some rein out at the 2f pole"

Why should he be stepped up in trip for the festival? If the horse was blatantly outpaced and being beaten over 2m, then by all means step it up in trip. There is no need to do so at the moment IMO. I'm not denying that the horse will stay further in time.

Anyway, lets agree to disagree. I hope the horse runs well/wins at the Festival (whatever the target). It would be nice to see a smaller yard in the winners enclosure. Good Luck with your bet.
Report thesecret January 13, 2013 8:44 PM GMT
I think that Jeremy Scott believes that he doesn't need to make a decision yet ! he can keep his options open and wait to have a better idea of where the opposition is going and the likely ground conditions, If it looks like the ground is going to be softer than the cotc would be aiming for he has the choice to stay at the shorter trip, I don't know if MR will run again before the festival but either way he will get to see The New One again and Puffin Billy I believe is due to run again,just my opinion but I wouldn't want to be getting involved with so many variables at the moment, not a good AP option for me at the moment,good luck to all who guess correctly...
Report buddeliea January 18, 2013 5:40 PM GMT
70 now on here for neptune,certainly suggests Supreme is the race for him.
Just had a bit of that,still think its up in the air a tad.
If it is going dependant,thats a big price.
Report Augustine January 20, 2013 8:00 PM GMT
There's no need to try and work out what's happening from the markets. The trainer himself said straight after Sandown: "he has loads of pace and will probably end up in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle." I'm surprised nobody has pointed this out.
Report buddeliea January 21, 2013 7:47 AM GMT
Yes,but probably means just that,i will cover him in both races just in case,and 70 means i dont lose a lot.
Report stevo1 January 22, 2013 11:24 AM GMT
Budd did you nick the 85s as well?
Report buddeliea January 22, 2013 1:03 PM GMT
no mate,missed that!!
Report EdwardWoowardWould February 10, 2013 2:50 PM GMT
What a lovely horse

Neptune or Supreme, good luck to the boys Cool

Already scooped a fortune from the last 3 wins
Report Areyoutalkintome? February 10, 2013 2:56 PM GMT
Didn't back it today, though I had interest in the Neptune at a decent price, all green now. Good luck to the connections whatever route they decide to take.
Report buddeliea February 10, 2013 5:10 PM GMT
Jockey said after the race today,he was heading for the Supreme,but now he reckons a decision will be made nearer the time and will probably be ground dependant.
Makes sense,and my gut feeling is he will be in Supreme.
Report Brooksielad February 10, 2013 5:55 PM GMT
sounds to me that if it comes up genuinely soft he will run in Supreme and if it's normal ground will be neptune.
Report bazzar February 11, 2013 10:57 AM GMT
Is it as good as VILLAGE VIC, OP?
Report EdwardWoowardWould February 17, 2013 6:41 PM GMT
Had lunch with my friend today and it has 100% not been decided and WILL depend on the ground.

Those are the facts so we are all guessing atm including the connections

I want it DRY Cool

GL
Report bazzar February 17, 2013 8:26 PM GMT
Why would we bother about the sh1t this guy spouts, can't even get his
nom de plume right, edwardWOOWARDwould, perhaps he should have chosen LONELY
as his nom de plume!!!
Report grocerjack February 28, 2013 12:23 PM GMT
Thanks Ed.Keep us updated if you can .have to admit Im a Dodging Bullets man myself for Supreme.
Report Millerracing67 February 28, 2013 2:15 PM GMT
Nice horse Melodic & has already won at Chelts, which is a plus.
Think the supreme will be the race for him & would have a great ew chance in what looks a hot race with the 2 JP runners looking very smart.
Report grocerjack March 1, 2013 8:14 PM GMT
Goes for supreme.
Report judorick March 2, 2013 1:41 AM GMT
quite right too that Neptune is fierce as feck

when Dodging Bullets is 12s for the Supreme it must lack strength in depth. Take the two favs out and it looks a weaker heat to me
Report roobuck March 2, 2013 7:43 AM GMT
Take the two favs out of the Neptune and all you are left with are promising looking horses but not many with any real form substance.
Report buddeliea March 2, 2013 11:24 AM GMT
Judo,not sure where you are coming fron with that quote re Dodging Bullets.
His form looks pretty solid to me.


Personally i would have MR as a massive player in either race,and ground will decide his race.
Report judorick March 2, 2013 12:45 PM GMT
well it seems clear to me that Dodging Bullets is a very unlikely winner of a Grade 1 race at the Festival, that's all Budd.  Much more important than form is the answer to the question (in every race, not just these): what type of horse wins a race like this? The way I answer that question says DB is far from the type of horse that wins a race like this. Given he's 11 or 12 on here, I can only conclude that there is little depth outside the front two in the market. Probably down to PW tipping it. Just an abiding principle, you can have all the form you want but if you're not the right type for the race you will probably not win. And DBs form also leaves him quite a way behind the best in the race
Report buddeliea March 2, 2013 1:21 PM GMT
Looks like im reading his form a bit different to you mate-looks ok to me,guess thats why we all bet against each other on the exchanges.

Hes been the same sort of price for ages now,holding around the 14 mark.

I aint backed him yet,and will probably wait now till the day before deciding whether to or not,but theres nothing in his form that puts me off.
Report roobuck March 2, 2013 1:28 PM GMT
PW didn't tip DB
Report buddeliea March 2, 2013 1:30 PM GMT
hes shortened up a bit since ive been away i see,best price 10 at the bookies.
That may tempt me.
Report Valuebetting March 4, 2013 10:09 AM GMT
edward.
any news on which race he is going for.
Report EdwardWoowardWould March 9, 2013 9:46 AM GMT
Still not certain which race

Depends on TWO factors , firstly the ground

Soft side its the SNH dryer and it's the Neptune

ALSO has a scope on Monday and if it is thought he needs another 24 hrs he will go for the Neptune ( scope this week was OK but only "OK"....work was very good though )

ALSO Nick Scho has advised a few of the boys to back Milord in the Fred Winter 20/1

GL All
Report THE_NUMBER_ONE_PUNTER March 9, 2013 10:47 AM GMT
cheers ed thanks
Report Valuebetting March 11, 2013 10:30 AM GMT
out, coped dirty says on other thread. Sad
Report EdwardWoowardWould March 11, 2013 4:32 PM GMT
09 Mar 13 08:46





Still not certain which race

Depends on TWO factors , firstly the ground

Soft side its the SNH dryer and it's the Neptune

ALSO has a scope on Monday and if it is thought he needs another 24 hrs he will go for the Neptune ( scope this week was OK but only "OK"....work was very good though )

ALSO Nick Scho has advised a few of the boys to back Milord in the Fred Winter 20/1



GL All


Gutted for the boys but the signs were there as posted , hope they hack up at Punchestown or Aintree

Lets hope Milord gets the money for the fellas that have backed it
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