Horse Antepost
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I just backed these in a double for arkle and champion chase at cheltenham. I woudn't dream of backing ante post at such short odds normally but couldn't resist it when i worked it out that with 'carol' going 5-4 and 1-2 means the double pays over 9-4. I've had a 200 double.
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I read a similar thread to this with a guy saying " I never usually bet ante post on short prices " but Big Bucks is a cert
Backing short ante post is the muggiest bets in muggsville and you just got suckered in 3 months for a 9/4 poke is bonkers and if it was such a good bet why not back it before they ran this year, it's not like we have learnt a single thing we didn't know before they ran and you would have got 3 or 4 time the odds ( value ) Horrible bet and no value whatsoever Sad but true |
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Good luck Mrs P. You won't know if it's a good bet or not until after the race.
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Sorry Mrs P, this way well win, but Long Term its a shocking bet to have, just imagine if you'd have had the same thought about Sprinter and Big Bucks a month ago
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I could see them going off around 1-4 and 1-2 and 9-4 will then look a big price.The races they are in could really cut up because they will frighten some of the opposition away so they could go off really short. The way i'm looking at is i'm getting 9-4 they make it to cheltenham because if they get there i can't see them getting beat.
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The problem with your logic is that the Cheltenham market come race day is very strong. Sacre could be taking on an incredibly strong field if the ground is soft, Sig could get more competition from an improver plus the bookies take on the novices anyway.
You are probably getting the 'expected' SP prices now IMHO without these 'add-ons'. GL all the same. |
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Daft bet unless you don`t trust yourself to keep your money for March. If it`s away of trying to guarantee you have something to look forward to in March then fair play, but it`s no value at all.
The markets are very strong as it is the meeting were bookies will take a strong stand to get the favs beat. They really stick their necks out. Sprinter Sacre was available at 8/11 last year in the Arkle when most of us new he should be 1/3. Simonsig will have a few unexposed talented types in the Arkle this year. Once again the books will take him on. |
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It seems almost unanimous that this is a terrible bet and offers NO value whatsoever
Mrs P I suggest you take heed of the wise words here when trying to "BUY" money especially on short priced horses months in advance There could be any amount of improving novice chasers yet to show thier hand and Simonsig as stated before has shown us NOTHING we didnt already know about him and has not proved he can jump swiftly at pace or under pressure Shocking bet , win or lose as I reckon you could have the same bet on the day at nearly the same or better oprice with no months of worry |
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yes it's all about opinions isn't it, we all see things different. Someone takes a price that they believe is value the person offering it must think it isn't value or they wouldn't offer it. If my bet wins does not mean i am right and you or wrong just as if my bet loses it does not mean you are right. I will consider i have got it right if they start significantly shorter on the day. If the double pays odds on at sp and i really think it will, then win or lose i will see it as having being a very good bet. I think that's really what it comes down to, i see it being an odds on double come cheltenham so even with the risk of an injury or something in the next 10 weeks i think the odds i got of just over 9-4(3.37)for the double is value even considering the ante post risks.
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edwardwoodward im afaraid yr wrong there we didn't know Simonsig would be as good a jumper as he is.
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we also didnt know that the probable opposition looks thinner than expected.
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I think any bet at short odds a-post is quite a bad bet. Your outlay is large and as people say if your horse gets injured or runs badly, you either have no run for your money or you have no value. Personally ante post for me is playing at very big odds for a stake that isn't consequential to your bank. If you successfully preempt where a horse is heading and get on at massive prices that's a true ante post punt for me, It makes the lead up to Cheltenham all the more exciting having a ticket with a three figure price on.
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yep,spot on Brooksie.
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By: This user is offline. Brooksielad Date Joined: 05 Jan 08
Add contact | Send message When: 01 Jan 13 18:34 Joined: Date Joined: 05 Jan 08 | Topic/replies: 845 | Blogger: Brooksielad's blog I think any bet at short odds a-post is quite a bad bet. Your outlay is large and as people say if your horse gets injured or runs badly, you either have no run for your money or you have no value. Personally ante post for me is playing at very big odds for a stake that isn't consequential to your bank. If you successfully preempt where a horse is heading and get on at massive prices that's a true ante post punt for me, It makes the lead up to Cheltenham all the more exciting having a ticket with a three figure price on. Rate reply: 0 (0 Ratings) The report button allows you to report a post, comment, reply or another user's behaviour. | report block user ..............why does your outlay have to be large. |
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the prices are refreshingly competitive come chelt.if they both get there the might sp at better than 9/4..we wont know til march
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Wouldn't have thought it 2 months ago but Sprinter could face a much stronger field than Simonsig will face in the Arkle. Can see Sprinter bigger than 1/2 on the day. Who would Simonsig have to beat? Arvika only?
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Nice bet mrs p!
Guys why not add in Quevega and make it a treble!  |
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I was thinking the same Soldier.
This is the sort of accy i would have had a few years back. I would probably chuck in Man Utd as well  ..and another few shorties. |
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yipee i won i won i won i won i won i won i won i won i won i won i won yipee
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Happy days.
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very good , got much bigger prices as well . so i guess it was value then S.S 1/4 sp simonsig 8/15 sp .well done
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