Horse Antepost
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How is this trading at such a high price. Have spent a few hours watching prior races and studying the form.
My conclusion was that Long Run was the most likely winner and is "rock solid" at 9/4. Stamina will be at a premium to win this race and he has proved himself numerous times. The only problem is his sloppy jumping at times and with this race likely to be run at a faster pace (in the first mile) than previous KG's he's been in there is my only doubt.
Of all the horses I've watched stepping up in trip FNS looked the most likely to appreciate the extra trip. He looks a little bit of a nutcase but has run on in all his races..watch even when beaten...behind Cue Card....the Jewson...Sandown behind AlFerof and at Ascot last time. At 44 win and 7.4 a place I think that is value.
PP has ducked him and is only 20/1.
Any thoughts ?
My conclusion was that Long Run was the most likely winner and is "rock solid" at 9/4. Stamina will be at a premium to win this race and he has proved himself numerous times. The only problem is his sloppy jumping at times and with this race likely to be run at a faster pace (in the first mile) than previous KG's he's been in there is my only doubt.
Of all the horses I've watched stepping up in trip FNS looked the most likely to appreciate the extra trip. He looks a little bit of a nutcase but has run on in all his races..watch even when beaten...behind Cue Card....the Jewson...Sandown behind AlFerof and at Ascot last time. At 44 win and 7.4 a place I think that is value.
PP has ducked him and is only 20/1.
Any thoughts ?
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seems to jump much better left handed and was trained for the minute to win at aintree...not a forlorn hope however and at 44+ to win there are far worse long shots...
his form reads well.... but a nigging feeling he is better left handed on a flat track...also not sure this ground is in his favour as seems much better on good... but all the best |
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It was very heavy at Ascot last time and he finished well. Being held up in this field may prove to be a blessing if they go fast up front.
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For Non Stop tried 3m over hurdles and was tailed off.He was reported to have broken a blood vessel but Nick Williams hasn't tried him again over the trip.
I can't say he's ever struck me as a horse crying out for a step up in trip. The other thing is the ground. While he seems to act on it he doesn't seem to jump very well in it. |
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Looks very uncomfortable going right to me.
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Got within a head of Al Ferof going that way.
Fair point if you dismiss that run. |
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with heavy ground what brain surgeon reckons they zre going to faster than the last 2 king georges
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The more I look at this race the more I think its quite a top class King George renewal. Yes the King has gone, but the field looks on average stronger than previous renewals. There a number of kempton specialists (Long Run, Riverside, Grand Crus) as well as some interesting prospects especially Cue Card. A horse will probably need to run into the high 160s to place. TBF there shouldn't be such a discrepancy between CC and FNS given that FNS was staying on at the end and giving away 6 pounds. My worry would be the trip as they clearly thought FNS was a 2m horse before the Ascot race. The same could be said of many though and you are getting a decent price to find out.
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FNS was getting 7lbs and was beaten 4 lengths, has virtually no chance of reversing form with CC on that form
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that was over a lot less though Judo,with the extra distance and the heavy ground that form could be ripped up.
at the prices hes worth a small punt imo theres no telling how some of these will cope today with stepping up in heavy ground,so to take a chance on a 44 shot is ok i reckon,especially when you consider other horses are doing the same at a lot smaller price. |
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Nonner
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yep,shame
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