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JOCI Club
23 Dec 12 19:58
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Date Joined: 13 Mar 04
| Topic/replies: 23,205 | Blogger: JOCI Club's blog
Thought I'd keep all analysis to a single thread, so we can see how the trends / stats based analysis fares throughout the seaon.

Here are the ones I've done so far. Will do a rough indicator of profit, assuming £100.00 win bets on the top rated runners in each race.

Paddy Power Gold Cup

Al Ferof 100%
Grands Crus 100%
Quantitativeeasing 100%

Hunt Ball 83%
Aerial 79%
Nadiya De La Vega 76%
Walkon 74%
Micheal Flips 69%
Gilbarry 65%
Divers 64%
Tanks For That 62%
Poquelin 60%
Calgary Bay 60%
Kingsmere 60%
Forpadydeplasterer 58%
Questions Answered 51%
Casey Top 44%
Triolo D´Alene 42%
Finger On The Pulse 37%
The Disengager 36%

Three horses came out equal top rated, with the following result:

Al Ferof 1st 8/1 Profit £800.00
Grands Crus PU Loss (£100.00)
Quantitativeeasing PU Loss (£100.00)

Net Profit £600.00
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Report JOCI Club December 23, 2012 9:01 PM GMT
Drinmore Novices Chase

Dedigout 100%
Buckers Bridge 83%
Arvika Ligeonniere 79%
Texas Jack 66%
Pride Of The Artic 52%

Dedigout clear top rated, but finished well beaten 2nd behind Arvika Legionniere, having never really been put in the race by the jockey.

Loss (£100.00)

Running total Profit £500.00
Report JOCI Club December 23, 2012 9:05 PM GMT
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup

Bobs Worth 94% 1st 4/1
Hold On Julio 69% 5th
Tidal Bay 63% 2nd
First Lieutenant 59% 3rd
Frisco Depot 55%
Duke Of Lucca 49%
Saint Are 49%
Teaforthree 46%
Harry The Viking 45%
Magnanimity 42%
The Package 41% 4th
Lion Na Bearnai 39%
Roberto Goldback 39%
Diamond Harry 38%
Soll 37%
Carruthers 35%
Alfie Spinner 31%
Ikorodu Road 23%
Fruity O´Rooney 9%

Clear top rated Bobs Worth won nicely at 4/1. In fact, the first 3 home came from the highest 4 top rated trends horses, so a good result for the trends overall.

Profit £400.00

Running rotal profit £900.00
Report JOCI Club December 23, 2012 9:07 PM GMT
King George

Long Run 92%
Captain Chris 62%
Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run
Report JOCI Club December 23, 2012 9:09 PM GMT
Lexus

Sir Des Champs 100%
Flemenstar 93%
Hidden Cyclone 88%
First Lieutenant 82%
Tidal Bay 82%
Quito De La Roque 80%
Sizing Europe 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Midnight Chase 57%
Rubi Light 57%
China Rock 46%
Pandorama 41%

Selection: Sir Des Champs
Report JOCI Club December 23, 2012 9:13 PM GMT
Welsh National

Michel Le Bon 87%
Viking Blond 81%
Teaforthree 73%
Alfie Spinner 70%
Tidal Bay 69%
Major Malarkey 64%
Monbeg Dude 64%
Universal Soldier 63%
Royal Charm 63%
Hold On Julio 63%
Quartz De Thaix 63%
Cannington Brook 63%
Katenko 62%
Cappa Bleu 56%
Soll 50%
Our Island 50%
Incentivise 50%
Mon Mome 49%
Sona Sasta 49%
Giles Cross 40%
Cool Operator 38%
Jadanli 36%
Triggerman 36%
Mark The Book 36%
Harouet 36%
Arbor Supreme 29%

Selection: Michel Le Bon

Michel Le Bon is the trends selection. Personally, really like Teaforthree for this, as I have slight doubts about the resilience of the trends selection.
Report zekial December 23, 2012 9:41 PM GMT
Good work JOCI, fair play for the effort/transparency. I will read with interest
Report gutfeeling December 23, 2012 11:58 PM GMT
Always good work Joci,
Will follow with interest and hope you show a very healthy lsp by the end of the season,Best wishes.
Report harry callaghan December 24, 2012 12:06 AM GMT
interesting joci club...

a thread with percentages of who you believe to be the perceived winners

where is the actual analysis please so we can pick the bones out of it and make our own minds up and actually contribute

very boring otherwise
Report JOCI Club December 24, 2012 12:09 AM GMT
harry - my spreadsheet is available to you, should you wish to bestow me with your e-mail address.
Report harry callaghan December 24, 2012 12:10 AM GMT
ok will message you pal thx
Report judorick December 24, 2012 1:13 AM GMT
JOCI has been kind enough to furnish me with his spreadsheets and they are really excellent work

thx again
Report JOCI Club December 24, 2012 6:35 PM GMT
Christmas Hurdle

Countrywide Flame 89%
Raya Star 78%
Cinders And Ashes 77%
Darlan 56%
Get Me Out Of Here 34%
Dodging Bullets 33%
Mad Moose 11%
Punjabi 10%


Three horses slightly ahead of the 'pack' according to the trends, and of those Countrywide Flame is the highest rated. One cautionary note is that he does have an age stat to overcome, that no 4 year old has one this in the last ten years (from 14 attempts). Darlan has a few stats to overcome if he's to win the race.

Selection: Countrywide Flame
Report JOCI Club December 24, 2012 6:36 PM GMT
* won this.
Report JOCI Club December 24, 2012 7:51 PM GMT
Would anyone be so kind as to post up the LTO RPR ratings for the runners in the Feltham Novices Chase?
Report harry callaghan December 24, 2012 8:55 PM GMT
dynaste 162
hadrians 135/fell
lovcen n/a hurdle 149
molotof 143
poungach 145
theatre guide 144
third intention 141
Report JOCI Club December 24, 2012 9:00 PM GMT
Thanks
Report Swagger December 24, 2012 9:01 PM GMT
Good thread JOCI. Will Viking Blonde stay the trip in the Welsh National? I like the first two in your list for the Welsh National which hopefully bodes well. But i just can't see Darlan getting beat in the xmas hurdle so will be taking on the stats
Report Swagger December 24, 2012 9:03 PM GMT
I used to back Countrywide Flame in dog races at Wolverhampton, i just can't believe what he has already achieved over hurdles and can't see him beating Darlan who looks a serious horse. But your selections have been very impressive thus far JOCI so it will be interesting viewing.
Report JOCI Club December 24, 2012 9:05 PM GMT
Feltham Novices Chase

Dynaste 100%
Lovcen 71%
Poungach 64%
Molotof 51%
Hadrian´s Approach 35%
Theatre Guide 34%
Third Intention 18%

Dynaste satisfies all the trend and is clear top rated, and only looks to have the fences to beat.

Selection: Dynaste
Report JOCI Club December 25, 2012 12:49 PM GMT
Having a look at the Paddy Power Steeplechase at Leopardstown next.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 12:36 PM GMT
Paddy Power Steeplechase

Lots of number crunching in this race due to number of runners / available trends, but here's my assessment of the chances of the runners:

Glam Gerry 94%
Cross Appeal 88%
Questions Answered 88%
Gates Of Rome 88%
Last Time D´Albain 81%
Action Master 80%
Rathlin 79%
Becauseicouldntsee 74%
Colbert Station 73%
Like Your Style 73%
Heavenly Brook 73%
Caduceus 71%
Farrells Fancy 67%
Prince Of Pirates 66%
Tharawaat 66%
Alfie Sherrin 66%
Ninetieth Minute 66%
Orpheus Valley 66%
Kyle´s Turn 66%
Muirhead 65%
Harold´s Cross 65%
Thegreatjohnbrowne 64%
In Great Form 64%
Fosters Cross 60%
Uncle Junior 60%
Son Amix 58%
Glenquest 58%
Code Of The West 57%
Romanesco 57%
By The Hour 50%

Glam Gerry is the clear leader on the trends, and should be favourite.

Interested to see at what odds the next three in the ratings will be once the market reforms, as there might be some each way to be had.

Selection: Glam Gerry
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
Correction - noticed error in spreadsheet, so here are the revised ratings:

Paddy Power Steeplechase

Glam Gerry 100%
Questions Answered 94%
Cross Appeal 88%
Gates Of Rome 88%
Last Time D´Albain 87%
Action Master 86%
Rathlin 85%
Colbert Station 79%
Heavenly Brook 79%
Becauseicouldntsee 74%
Farrells Fancy 73%
Like Your Style 73%
Prince Of Pirates 72%
Alfie Sherrin 72%
Ninetieth Minute 72%
Orpheus Valley 72%
Kyle´s Turn 72%
Muirhead 71%
Caduceus 71%
Thegreatjohnbrowne 71%
Tharawaat 66%
Harold´s Cross 65%
Son Amix 64%
In Great Form 64%
Fosters Cross 60%
Uncle Junior 60%
Glenquest 58%
Code Of The West 57%
Romanesco 57%
By The Hour 50%

Selection: Glam Gerry

Will take a look at the prices of the next three in the ratings, to see if any big prices available for each way.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 1:37 PM GMT
Glam Gerry 100% (8/1)
Questions Answered 94% (14/1)
Cross Appeal 88% (25/1)
Gates Of Rome 88% (25/1)

Prices with the sponsors. Should be bigger on here I'd guess.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 2:10 PM GMT
Feltham Novices Chase

Dynaste 100%
Lovcen 71%
Poungach 64%
Molotof 51%
Hadrian´s Approach 35%
Theatre Guide 34%
Third Intention 18%

Dynaste satisfies all the trend and is clear top rated, and only looks to have the fences to beat.

Selection: Dynaste

Dynaste won as expected, and the odds improved a little just before the off.

Profit £61.64

Running Profit £961.64
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 2:45 PM GMT
Christmas Hurdle

Countrywide Flame 89%
Raya Star 78%
Cinders And Ashes 77%
Darlan 56%
Get Me Out Of Here 34%
Dodging Bullets 33%
Mad Moose 11%
Punjabi 10%


Three horses slightly ahead of the 'pack' according to the trends, and of those Countrywide Flame is the highest rated. One cautionary note is that he does have an age stat to overcome, that no 4 year old has one this in the last ten years (from 14 attempts). Darlan has a few stats to overcome if he's to win the race.

Selection: Countrywide Flame

Darlan defies the stats to win very nicely, and Raya Star (rated second best on the trends) runs a great race in second.

Loss (£100.00)

Running Profit £861.64
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 3:25 PM GMT
King George

Long Run 92% 1st
Captain Chris 62% 2nd

Kauto Stone 61%
Riverside Theatre 53%
Grands Crus 50%
Junior 45%
The Giant Bolster 44%
Champion Court 35%
Cue Card 35%
For Non Stop 34%

Selection: Long Run

Excellent result for the trends analysis with the two top rated, Long Run winning and Captain Chris 2nd, at odds of 15/8 and 16/1 respectively.

For anyone lucky enough to be on, the exacta paid £38.90

Profit £187.50

Running Profit £1,049.14
Report gutfeeling December 26, 2012 3:45 PM GMT
Great work so far Joci,
Hope you was on the KG f/c.
Report JOCI Club December 26, 2012 6:14 PM GMT
Paddy Power Steeplechase

Glam Gerry 100%
Questions Answered 94%

Cross Appeal 88%
Gates Of Rome 88%
Last Time D´Albain 87%
Action Master 86%
Rathlin 85%
Colbert Station 79%
Heavenly Brook 79%
Becauseicouldntsee 74%
Farrells Fancy 73%
Like Your Style 73%
Prince Of Pirates 72%
Alfie Sherrin 72%
Ninetieth Minute 72%
Orpheus Valley 72%
Kyle´s Turn 72%
Muirhead 71%
Caduceus 71%
Thegreatjohnbrowne 71%
Tharawaat 66%
Harold´s Cross 65%
Son Amix 64%
In Great Form 64%
Fosters Cross 60%
Uncle Junior 60%
Glenquest 58%
Code Of The West 57%
Romanesco 57%
By The Hour 50%

Selection: Glam Gerry (10)

Potential each way shots:

Questions Answered 94% (18)
Cross Appeal 88% (17.5)
Gates Of Rome 88% (30)
Last Time D´Albain 87% (22)

Prices from Betfair as of a minute or so ago.
Report JOCI Club December 27, 2012 7:16 PM GMT
Paddy Power Steeplechase

Glam Gerry 100%
Questions Answered 94%
Cross Appeal 88%
Gates Of Rome 88%
Last Time D´Albain 87%
Action Master 86%
Rathlin 85%
Colbert Station 79%
Heavenly Brook 79%
Becauseicouldntsee 74%
Farrells Fancy 73%
Like Your Style 73%
Prince Of Pirates 72%
Alfie Sherrin 72%
Ninetieth Minute 72%
Orpheus Valley 72%
Kyle´s Turn 72%
Muirhead 71%
Caduceus 71%
Thegreatjohnbrowne 71%
Tharawaat 66%
Harold´s Cross 65%
Son Amix 64%
In Great Form 64%
Fosters Cross 60%
Uncle Junior 60%
Glenquest 58%
Code Of The West 57%
Romanesco 57%
By The Hour 50%

Selection: Glam Gerry (10) 10th

Potential each way shots:

Questions Answered 94% (18)
Cross Appeal 88% (17.5)11th
Gates Of Rome 88% (30) PU
Last Time D´Albain 87% 3rd @ 33/1

Drew a blank with Glam Gerry, but one of the each way shots, Last Time D'Albain made the frame at 33/1 (probably bigger on here).

Loss (£100.00)

Running Profit £949.14
Report flannybhoy. December 27, 2012 9:50 PM GMT
Fascinating stuff Joci C and some good results , I for one will be following this thread with interest , I wont be backing the selections at the same stakes but will be following and keep up the good work . It is quite refreshing to see someone doing something well and not getting trolled and abuse from others who likely wouldnt put half the ffort in so well done . Keep up the good work please , ta Cool
Report JOCI Club December 27, 2012 10:24 PM GMT
Aupcharlie34
Back In Focus40
Benefficient2
Cootamundra20
Dedigout26 t
Mount Benbulben27
Pride Of The Artic26 b
Texas Jack26
Tofino Bay33
Tusa Eire20
Jenari20
Lyreen Legend40
The Westener Boy20

For the above runners in the Topaz chase would anyone be able to point out which had run their best RPR on eithrt of the last 2 chase runs? Thanks.
Report JOCI Club December 27, 2012 11:35 PM GMT
Topaz Chase

Had to cut a corner with this race, as missing the RPR data for that trend, but have simply assumed they all satisfied that criteria.

On this basis, here are the ratings:

Back In Focus 100%
Dedigout 100%

Mount Benbulben 92%
Texas Jack 84%
Tofino Bay 82%
Lyreen Legend 82%
Benefficient 74%
Pride Of The Artic 74%
Jenari 73%
Cootamundra 71%
The Westener Boy 71%
Aupcharlie 61%
Tusa Eire 41%

Joint top rated Back In Focus and Dedigout.

Selections: Back In Focus & Dedigout

OK, at current odds, only a very small profit if Back In Focus wins, and a better profit if Dedigout wins.

Mount Benbulben to give them most to do.
Report festivalfanatic December 28, 2012 10:19 AM GMT
Not good enough JOCI....you're watching too much football!!Grin
Report JOCI Club December 28, 2012 8:29 PM GMT
Topaz Chase

Had to cut a corner with this race, as missing the RPR data for that trend, but have simply assumed they all satisfied that criteria.

On this basis, here are the ratings:

Back In Focus 100% 1st @ 6/4
Dedigout 100% 6th

Mount Benbulben 92%
Texas Jack 84%
Tofino Bay 82%
Lyreen Legend 82%
Benefficient 74%
Pride Of The Artic 74%
Jenari 73%
Cootamundra 71%
The Westener Boy 71%
Aupcharlie 61%
Tusa Eire 41%

Joint top rated Back In Focus and Dedigout.

Selections: Back In Focus & Dedigout

OK, at current odds, only a very small profit if Back In Focus wins, and a better profit if Dedigout wins.

Mount Benbulben to give them most to do.


A hard fought win for Back In Focus, with Dedigout disappointing, so small profit overall.

Profit £50.00

Running Profit £999.14
Report JOCI Club December 28, 2012 8:31 PM GMT
Lexus

Sir Des Champs 100%
Flemenstar 93%
Hidden Cyclone 88%
First Lieutenant 82%
Tidal Bay 82%
Quito De La Roque 80%
Sizing Europe 70%
Bog Warrior 65%
Midnight Chase 57%
Rubi Light 57%
China Rock 46%
Pandorama 41%

Selection: Sir Des Champs

A blanket finish with Tidal Bay's admirable staying qualities winning the day. Sir Des Champs a close up 4th.

Loss (£100.00)

Running Profit £899.14
Report JOCI Club December 28, 2012 9:43 PM GMT
Istabraq Festival Hurdle

Hurricane Fly    100%
Unaccompanied    76%
Thousand Stars    54%
Captain Cee Bee    45%
Tilabay    36%

No surprise there, but the clear trends favourite is the excellent Hurricane Fly who proves to be virtually unbeatable on his home soil. You won't get rich backing him, but he's the selection. Trends suggest Unnacompanied for the exacta, but I wouldn't advise that given her lack of a hurdles spin this season.

Selection: Hurricane Fly
Report JOCI Club December 29, 2012 2:07 PM GMT
Istabraq Festival Hurdle

Hurricane Fly    100%
Unaccompanied    76%
Thousand Stars    54%
Captain Cee Bee    45%
Tilabay    36%

No surprise there, but the clear trends favourite is the excellent Hurricane Fly who proves to be virtually unbeatable on his home soil. You won't get rich backing him, but he's the selection. Trends suggest Unnacompanied for the exacta, but I wouldn't advise that given her lack of a hurdles spin this season.

Selection: Hurricane Fly

Routine, facile victory for Hurricane Fly. The trends actually got the first 5 home in the correct order!

Profit £20.00

Running profit £919.14
Report JOCI Club December 30, 2012 3:56 PM GMT
Been busy last couple of days getting my spreadsheet ready for the Cheltenham Festival, so I just have to slot all the runners in, and do the research in the last few weeks leading up to the event. Just finished Day 1 and working on day 2 now. Will be a bit of a marathon effort, but hopefully worth it when the time comes. Anyone interested in the trends angle, and need a copy closer to the time, let me know.

Found some decent winners / placed horses last season when I put my thread up here. Past performance is no guarantee of success this time round though. Blush
Report gutfeeling December 30, 2012 11:39 PM GMT
Would love a copy,Should i pm you a e-mail address?
Report JOCI Club December 30, 2012 11:58 PM GMT
Sure - but closer to the Festival, as it's still work in progress. Just getting all the trends together for all of the races in one document. Then when the decs come out, need to evaluate all the runners against those trends. Doing some work in advance now will ease the burden closer to the time.
Report gutfeeling December 31, 2012 3:20 PM GMT
Thanks for the reply,I'll send it over at the beginning of March,Do my own stuff but as it's start point is dosage a lot of people write it off but have found it to be a useful tool myself and gives me more manageable numbers to apply the general stats too before the hard form study begins.
Best of luck and Happy New Year.
Report JOCI Club December 31, 2012 6:51 PM GMT
Welsh National

An update on the Welsh National following the revised declarations:

Michel Le Bon 87%
Viking Blond 81%
Teaforthree 73%
Alfie Spinner 70%
Major Malarkey 64%
Monbeg Dude 64%
Universal Soldier 63%
Royal Charm 63%
Across The Bay 63%
Quartz De Thaix 63%
Katenko 62%
Sona Sasta 54%
Soll 50%
Our Island 50%
Incentivise 50%
Mon Mome 49%
Master Overseer 49%
Giles Cross 40%
Cool Operator 38%
Jadanli 36%
Triggerman 36%
Harouet 36%
Arbor Supreme 29%

Selection: Michel Le Bon

Once again, despite the trend, have some doubts about the hardiness of Michel Le Bon, and will be looking at others too, namely main bet Teaforthree, and Viking Blond.
Report JOCI Club January 1, 2013 9:25 PM GMT
Coral.co.uk Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle

Just need one additional piece of information to finish off this analysis (need the betting forecast when it comes out), but here are the preliminary ratings:

Handazan 92%
Feb Thirtyfirst 84%
Vasco D´Ycy 79%
Dalmo 71%
Ruacana 68%
Swnymor 68%
Valco De Touzaine 65%
Caid Du Berlais 63%
Megalypos 52%
Zamdy Man 27%

Final ratings before the weekend.
Report JOCI Club January 4, 2013 9:28 PM GMT
Tolworth Hurdle

Ratings based on tredns are as follows:

Melodic Rendezvous 100%
Royal Boy 100%
Poet 89%
Golden Hoof 84%
Pendra 84%
Court Minstrel 63%
Le Reve 52%

Slight preference would be for Royal Boy, as he's trained by Henderson who has decent record in this race, but could feasibly back both around the 7/2 mark.

Selections: Melodic Rendezvous & Royal Boy
Report JOCI Club January 4, 2013 9:50 PM GMT
Coral.co.uk Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle

Just need one additional piece of information to finish off this analysis (need the betting forecast when it comes out), but here are the preliminary ratings:

Handazan 92%
Feb Thirtyfirst 84%
Vasco D´Ycy 79%
Dalmo 71%
Ruacana 68%
Swnymor 68%
Valco De Touzaine 65%
Caid Du Berlais 63%
Megalypos 52%
Zamdy Man 27%

Well, from the original ratings above, Hamdazan was a non-runner, so the final ratings are given below:

Vasco D´Ycy 82%
Feb Thirtyfirst 72%
Ruacana 72%
Swnymor 72%
Caid Du Berlais 68%
Dalmo 61%
Megalypos 58%
Zamdy Man 24%

Although the betting suggests Nicholls' Caid Du Berlais might be the one to beat, the trends favourite is Vasco D'Ycy, and looks like it could go off at a working man's price too (currently 8.4 on here).

Selection: Vasco D'Ycy
Report JOCI Club January 5, 2013 2:10 PM GMT
Vasco D'Ycy easily outclassed at Chepstow, with joint 2nd rated Ruacana taking the spoils.

Loss (£100.00)
Report JOCI Club January 5, 2013 2:35 PM GMT
Tolworth Hurdle

Ratings based on tredns are as follows:

Melodic Rendezvous 100%
Royal Boy 100%

Poet 89%
Golden Hoof 84%
Pendra 84%
Court Minstrel 63%
Le Reve 52%

Slight preference would be for Royal Boy, as he's trained by Henderson who has decent record in this race, but could feasibly back both around the 7/2 mark.

Selections: Melodic Rendezvous & Royal Boy

Good battling qualities by Melodic Rendezvous to win at 7/2, and Royal Boy faded into 3rd after cutting out the running.

Profit £250.00

Running profit £1,069.14
Report JOCI Club January 5, 2013 3:57 PM GMT
Welsh National

An update on the Welsh National following the revised declarations:

Michel Le Bon 87%
Viking Blond 81%
Teaforthree 73%
Monbeg Dude 64%
Universal Soldier 63%
Royal Charm 63%
Across The Bay 63%
Sona Sasta 54%
Soll 50%
Our Island 50%
Incentivise 50%
Mon Mome 49%
Master Overseer 49%
Giles Cross 40%
Jadanli 36%
Triggerman 36%
Harouet 36%
Arbor Supreme 29%

Selection: Michel Le Bon

Once again, despite the trend, have some doubts about the hardiness of Michel Le Bon, and will be looking at others too, namely main bet Teaforthree, and Viking Blond.


My suspicion that Michel Le Bon would be too soft for this race proved correct. Excellent run by my fancy Teaforthree, just finding the concession of over a stone to Monbeg Dude too much to cope with.

Loss (£100.00)

Running Profit £969.14
Report flannybhoy. January 7, 2013 7:49 PM GMT
Still going great guns Joci , keep up the good work .
Report roadrunner46 January 7, 2013 8:14 PM GMT
Stats for christmas hurdle no 4 year old winning in 14 years, that was excellent info.good thread
Report JOCI Club January 11, 2013 8:47 PM GMT
Betfred Classic Chase

Benheir 91%
Universal Soldier 89%

Major Malarkey 84%
Bradley 82%
Quentin Collonges 79%
Godsmejudge 74%
Restless Harry 72%
Flying Award 69%
Pete The Feat 68%
Auroras Encore 66%
Wellforth 66%
Sea Saffron 57%
Rigadin De Beauchene 46%

Interestingly (well, to me at least), the trends throw up a couple of top rated horses that are available at very tasty prices on here.

The Rebecca Curtis (miaow) trained Benheir will have 7lbs taken off by a claimer, is pretty consistent, and looks set to run well. Add to that, Universal Soldier, who disappointed in the Welsh National, but could well bounce back.

Selection: Benheir (each way)

Selection available here at 22/1 for the win and 4.9 for the place.
Report JOCI Club January 12, 2013 4:02 PM GMT
Betfred Classic Chase

Benheir 91%
Universal Soldier 89%
Major Malarkey 84%
Bradley 82%
Quentin Collonges 79%
Godsmejudge 74%
Restless Harry 72%
Flying Award 69%
Pete The Feat 68%
Auroras Encore 66%
Wellforth 66%
Sea Saffron 57%
Rigadin De Beauchene 46%

Interestingly (well, to me at least), the trends throw up a couple of top rated horses that are available at very tasty prices on here.

The Rebecca Curtis (miaow) trained Benheir will have 7lbs taken off by a claimer, is pretty consistent, and looks set to run well. Add to that, Universal Soldier, who disappointed in the Welsh National, but could well bounce back.

Selection: Benheir (each way)

Selection available here at 22/1 for the win and 4.9 for the place.

No luck for Benheir. Loss (£100.00)

Running profit £819.14
Report JOCI Club January 22, 2013 9:36 PM GMT
Thystes Chase

Here are the ratings for the currently engaged runners for Thursday.

Belle Brook 92%
Murchu 83%
Whodoyouthink 82%
The Westener Boy 81%
Medical Card 81%
Panther Claw 74%
Toon River 74%
Saoirse Dun 74%
Tofino Bay 73%
Caduceus 73%
Boland´s Corner 73%
Son Amix 72%
Sole Witness 72%
Call The Police 65%
Glenquest 64%
Tullintain 64%
Sweeney Tunes 63%
Outlaw Pete 56%
Ros Brin 56%
In Great Form 55%
Sumkindasuprstar 55%
Bishopsfurze 54%
Sweet My Lord 53%
Jadanli 47%
Come To The Party 46%
Tarquinius 46%
Shakervilz 45%

Belle Brook currently available 26/1 on here!
Report The Jacks are Back! January 22, 2013 11:51 PM GMT
Great thread - just read it tonight and delighted you are doing well. Would be very interested in being copied in on the Festival spreadsheet and best of luck with fantastic work.
Report JOCI Club January 22, 2013 11:54 PM GMT
No probs, will be work in progress right up to the last week, but happy to forward you a copy closer to the time if you message me your e-mail.

Some of the major races will be ready earlier, but the handicaps will be more 'last minute'.
Report Michrich January 23, 2013 9:38 AM GMT
Hi JOCI, are you classing her PTP win as winning over 24F? What do you have Glenquest failing on? He matches all my trends which are age, OR, weight, Irish Bred, won a chase over 24F+, won class 3+ and raced since Xmas.
Report JOCI Club January 23, 2013 7:59 PM GMT
Yes, I do (rightly or wrongly) include the PTP win for Belle Brook.

Factors against Glenquest centre around age (just a bit too old) and a bit too exposed (more than the ideal number of races / handicap runs etc).
Report JOCI Club January 23, 2013 8:24 PM GMT
Thystes Chase

Updated ratings following final declarations and the rise in weights:

Belle Brook 83%
Murchu 83%
Panther Claw 74%
Toon River 74%
Saoirse Dun 74%
Medical Card 73%
The Westener Boy 73%
Boland´s Corner 73%
Son Amix 64%
Sole Witness 64%
Tullintain 64%
Outlaw Pete 56%
Ros Brin 56%
Glenquest 55%
In Great Form 55%
Sumkindasuprstar 55%
Bishopsfurze 54%
Jadanli 47%
Come To The Party 46%
Tarquinius 46%


Selections: Belle Brook & Murchu

Belle Brook was available @ 26 on here last night, now 22s! Murchu now 17.5.

Split stakes £50 win on each.
Report JOCI Club January 23, 2013 11:23 PM GMT
In view of the odds, the £25 e/w both would perhaps be more advisable.
Report JOCI Club January 24, 2013 7:47 PM GMT
Well that was extremely unsuccessful.

Fell and pulled up.

In fact, two of the three bottom rated ended up fighting out the finish! Blush

Loss (£100.00)

Running Profit £719.14
Report flannybhoy. January 24, 2013 8:51 PM GMT
It was a totally unpredicatable result given the ground no surprise , keep up the good worj , they say class is permanent Joci sure the good results will be back soon fella .
Report Arklearkle January 24, 2013 10:06 PM GMT
Agree with Flann and the Thyestes is always a difficult race anyway. Keep up the good work.
Report JOCI Club January 26, 2013 11:03 AM GMT
Could anyone be so kind as to let me know which of the runners in the Cleeve Hurdle achieved their best RPR in either of their last 2 hurdles races?

Thanks.
Report pebbles2 January 26, 2013 11:43 AM GMT
OW
Reve
KGL
Report pebbles2 January 26, 2013 11:47 AM GMT
Add Carrithers to that Joci,but was in 2008!!
Report JOCI Club January 26, 2013 12:00 PM GMT
Thankyou....ratings coming up.
Report JOCI Club January 26, 2013 12:09 PM GMT
Cleeve Hurdle

Fascinating race in prospect, if only for it being the acid test for Oscar Whisky's ability to stay 3 miles. My view is that he will, and that there was something amiss when he ran in the World Hurdle. Also, I'm sure many of these will have the Festival in mind, and I don't think they will want to sacrifice the Festival by having a gruelling slog here today (which is why I think they might go a sensible gallop).

The ratings:

Oscar Whisky 92%
Reve De Sivola 84%
Carruthers 80%
Kentford Grey Lady 75%
Walkon 74%
Crack Away Jack 72%
Kauto Stone 72%
Lovcen 64%
Knockara Beau 64%
Cross Kennon 55%

Selection: Oscar Whisky
Report JOCI Club January 26, 2013 2:45 PM GMT
Leopardstown Handicap Chase

Apt Approach28 t     77%
On The Way Out31     75%
Organisedconfusion28     70%
Ballyadam Brook20     69%
Glam Gerry30     67%
Thegreatjohnbrowne30     63%
Hidden Cyclone29     61%
Like Your Style30 t     59%
Jack Absolute30 p     59%
Questions Answered30     51%
Canaly26     50%
Carrigmartin30     49%
Farrells Fancy30     42%
Klepht20 t     35%
Carlingford Lough31     35%
Sweeney Tunes69     34%
Dancing Tornado57     32%
Sweet My Lord57     23%

Apt Approach and On The Way Out are favoured by the majority of the trends. Not putting them up as bets as I didn't get to finish all the trends.
Report JOCI Club January 26, 2013 3:48 PM GMT
Cleeve Hurdle

Fascinating race in prospect, if only for it being the acid test for Oscar Whisky's ability to stay 3 miles. My view is that he will, and that there was something amiss when he ran in the World Hurdle. Also, I'm sure many of these will have the Festival in mind, and I don't think they will want to sacrifice the Festival by having a gruelling slog here today (which is why I think they might go a sensible gallop).

The ratings:

Oscar Whisky 92%
Reve De Sivola 84%
Carruthers 80%
Kentford Grey Lady 75%
Walkon 74%
Crack Away Jack 72%
Kauto Stone 72%
Lovcen 64%
Knockara Beau 64%
Cross Kennon 55%

Selection: Oscar Whisky

Top 2 rated fought out a titanic struggle up the hill, but Reve De Sivola wanted it more.

Loss (£100.00)

Running Profit £619.14
Report JOCI Club February 8, 2013 11:32 PM GMT
Betfair Hurdle

An extremely competitive handicap that often gives good pointers to the Festival, here is my trends based assessment of the Betfair Hurdle:

Swing Bowler 85%
Lyvius 72%
Ingleby Spirit 72%
Court Minstrel 72%
Into Wain 72%
Claret Cloak 70%
Cotton Mill 66%
Cause Of Causes 64%
My Tent Or Yours 64%
Manyriverstocross 64%
Baby Mix 63%
Caid Du Berlais 62%
Pearl Swan 58%
Cash And Go 58%
Princeton Plains 56%
Dark Lover 56%
Village Vic 56%
First In The Queue 56%
Home Run 55%
Petit Robin 50%
Ronaldo Des Mottes 50%
The Betchworth Kid 40%
Punjabi 34%

One horse leads the pack on the trends and that's David Pipe's Swing Bowler. A few equally rated just behind him.

Selection: Swing Bowler £50.00 e/w
Report JOCI Club February 9, 2013 11:23 AM GMT
Dr PJ Moriarty Chase

The stats are against the hot favourite today:

Texas Jack 91%
Lyreen Legend 77%
Lord Windermere 67%
Star Neuville 66%
Boston Bob 50%
Klepht 45%

Selection: Texas Jack £50.00 e/w
Report jasey February 9, 2013 3:00 PM GMT
So cruell,
Report jasey February 9, 2013 3:00 PM GMT
cruel
Report JOCI Club February 9, 2013 3:02 PM GMT
Yes, just chinned on the line. No damage done, as each way thankfully. Just outstayed in the end.
Report JOCI Club February 9, 2013 4:02 PM GMT
Dr PJ Moriarty Chase

The stats are against the hot favourite today:

Texas Jack 91%
Lyreen Legend 77%
Lord Windermere 67%
Star Neuville 66%
Boston Bob 50%
Klepht 45%

Selection: Texas Jack £50.00 e/w

2nd at 9/2 reulted in a tiny loss of £5.00. Bad luck getting done on the line. Sad
Report JOCI Club February 9, 2013 4:04 PM GMT
Betfair Hurdle

An extremely competitive handicap that often gives good pointers to the Festival, here is my trends based assessment of the Betfair Hurdle:

Swing Bowler 85%
Lyvius 72%
Ingleby Spirit 72%
Court Minstrel 72%
Into Wain 72%
Claret Cloak 70%
Cotton Mill 66%
Cause Of Causes 64%
My Tent Or Yours 64%
Manyriverstocross 64%
Baby Mix 63%
Caid Du Berlais 62%
Pearl Swan 58%
Cash And Go 58%
Princeton Plains 56%
Dark Lover 56%
Village Vic 56%
First In The Queue 56%
Home Run 55%
Petit Robin 50%
Ronaldo Des Mottes 50%
The Betchworth Kid 40%
Punjabi 34%

One horse leads the pack on the trends and that's David Pipe's Swing Bowler. A few equally rated just behind him.

Selection: Swing Bowler £50.00 e/w

3rd at 8/1 so the each way (place) landed.

Profit £50.00

Running Profit £664.14
Report JOCI Club March 16, 2013 10:52 AM GMT
Midlands Grand National

Will be a tremendous stamina sapping slog today, which might throw out a strange result, but here are the rankings in any case:

One In A Milan 94%   
Chac Du Cadran 93%   
Big Occasion 88%   
Global Power 88%   
Bradley 72% NON RUNNER
Fill The Power 69%   
Monbeg Dude 56%    NON RUNNER
Cool Operator 56%   
Major Malarkey 49%   
You Know Yourself 48%   
Rebeccas Choice 47%   
Master Overseer 45%   
Carruthers 37%   
Silver By Nature 31% NON RUNNER

Have backed the top 2 highest rated.

Selections: Once In A Milan £50.00 win & Chac Du Cadran £50.00 win
Report JOCI Club March 23, 2013 12:14 AM GMT
My third rated horse won the Midlands National - close but no cigar.

Cumulative profit £564.14
Report JOCI Club March 23, 2013 12:17 AM GMT
The Lincoln

On the off chance that it beats the weather, here are my trends ratings:

Chapter Seven 94%
Strictly Silver 85%
Solar Deity 76%
Memory Cloth 72%
Hit The Jackpot 70%
Lahaag 70%
Gladys´ Gal 70%
Shamaal Nibras 65%
Captain Bertie 64%
Justonefortheroad 59%
Belgian Bill 58%
Capaill Liath 57%
Eshtibaak 57%
Muffin McLeay 57%
Brae Hill 53%
Majestic Myles 48%
Monsieur Chevalier 48%
Swiftly Done 47%
Dance And Dance 46%
Arsaadi 41%
Prince Of Johanne 39%
Global Village 37%

Selections: Chapter Seven (14) & Strictly Silver (12) £50 win bet on both
Report JOCI Club March 23, 2013 12:18 AM GMT
The Lincoln

On the off chance that it beats the weather, here are my trends ratings:

Chapter Seven 94%
Strictly Silver 85%

Solar Deity 76%
Memory Cloth 72%
Hit The Jackpot 70%
Lahaag 70%
Gladys´ Gal 70%
Shamaal Nibras 65%
Captain Bertie 64%
Justonefortheroad 59%
Belgian Bill 58%
Capaill Liath 57%
Eshtibaak 57%
Muffin McLeay 57%
Brae Hill 53%
Majestic Myles 48%
Monsieur Chevalier 48%
Swiftly Done 47%
Dance And Dance 46%
Arsaadi 41%
Prince Of Johanne 39%
Global Village 37%

Selections: Chapter Seven (14) & Strictly Silver (12) £50 win bet on both
Report JOCI Club March 30, 2013 12:29 PM GMT
Irish Grand National

Lots and lots of trends around this race, and after analysing all of them, here is my assessment of the chances of the current 30 strong field.

Panther Claw 96%
Competitive Edge 91%
Rich Revival 90%
Muirhead 86%
He´llberemembered 82%
Sweeney Tunes 81%
Jacksonslady 79%
Home Farm 77%
Magnanimity 76%
Quietly Fancied 75%
Cross Appeal 74%
Romanesco 73%
Liberty Counsel 73%
Jadanli 73%
Start Me Up 70%
Questions Answered 70%
Blazing Beacon 68%
Away We Go 67%
Our Victoria 67%
Whodoyouthink 67%
Cootamundra 66%
Carlingford Lough 66%
Goonyella 66%
Junior 65%
Carloswayback 64%
Imperial Shabra 64%
Rapidolyte De Ladalka 63%
Marasonnien 63%
You Must Know Me 60%
Paddy Pub 44%

Selection: Panther Claw

Rich Revival & Competitive Edge would also come under consideration.
Report JOCI Club March 31, 2013 12:35 PM BST
Irish Grand National

Lots and lots of trends around this race, and after analysing all of them, here is my assessment of the chances of the current 30 strong field.

Panther Claw 96%
Competitive Edge 91%
Rich Revival 90%

Muirhead 86%
He´llberemembered 82%
Sweeney Tunes 81%
Jacksonslady 79%
Home Farm 77%
Magnanimity 76%
Quietly Fancied 75%
Cross Appeal 74%
Romanesco 73%
Liberty Counsel 73%
Jadanli 73%
Start Me Up 70%
Questions Answered 70%
Blazing Beacon 68%
Away We Go 67%
Our Victoria 67%
Whodoyouthink 67%
Cootamundra 66%
Carlingford Lough 66%
Goonyella 66%
Junior 65%
Carloswayback 64%
Imperial Shabra 64%
Rapidolyte De Ladalka 63%
Marasonnien 63%
You Must Know Me 60%
Paddy Pub 44%

Selections: Panther Claw (£50.00 @ 15.5), Competitive Edge (£25.00 @ 19), Rich Revival (£25.00 @ 11.5)
Report Night Sight March 31, 2013 1:53 PM BST
Interesting stuff Joci.

The Irish National is usually a good trends race.Panther Claw and Rich Revival are the two which the trends give for this year on the stats I use.

Competitive Edge only fails due to not having a win at 3m+.Having said that it does look to have a similar profile to Organisedconfusion which as far as I can see was the only winner in the past 14 years not to have done so.

I'll add it to my bets on Panther Claw and Rich Revival.....just in case.

Good luck tomorrow.
Report JOCI Club April 19, 2013 9:14 AM BST
Scottish National

Here are my trend based rankings:

Monsieur Cadou    85%
Lively Baron    84%

Rebeccas Choice    78%
Rigadin De Beauchene    72%
Auroras Encore    70%
Knockara Beau    67%
Relax    67%
Neptune Equester    67%
Rival D´Estruval    66%
Problema Tic    65%
Cool Operator    65%
Captain Americo    65%
Big Occasion    64%
Garleton    63%
Mister Marker    63%
Rose Of The Moon    61%
Bradley    59%
Godsmejudge    59%
Pentiffic    58%
Always Right    54%
Nuts N Bolts    53%
Fill The Power    53%
Tour Des Champs    52%
Lion Na Bearnai    51%
Silver By Nature    50%
Our Mick    46%

Just working on a slightly different approach by focussing on horses who qualify for all the '100%' trends to see if that gives a different view.
Report JOCI Club April 19, 2013 9:22 AM BST
There were 6 of the 16 trends which had been satisfied in all of the last 10 runnings of this race, and if you just look at these, then this is how the runners fare:

Monsieur Cadou     6.00
Lively Baron     6.00
Auroras Encore     5.00
Rival D´Estruval     5.00
Knockara Beau     5.00
Rose Of The Moon     5.00
Problema Tic     5.00
Rigadin De Beauchene     5.00
Nuts N Bolts     5.00
Relax     5.00
Neptune Equester     5.00
Rebeccas Choice     5.00
Our Mick     4.00
Always Right     4.00
Garleton     4.00
Godsmejudge     4.00
Bradley     4.00
Mister Marker     4.00
Big Occasion     4.00
Fill The Power     4.00
Cool Operator     4.00
Captain Americo     4.00
Lion Na Bearnai     3.00
Silver By Nature     3.00
Tour Des Champs     3.00
Pentiffic     3.00


Selections: Monsieur Cadou £25 e/w @ 16.5 & Lively Baron £25 e/w @ 30
Report Ilnamar April 19, 2013 10:56 AM BST
Interested to know what your 100% trends were Joci....I only had 3, mainly because Joes Edge busted so many
Report Ilnamar April 19, 2013 11:04 AM BST
Also surprised you don't have Neptune Equester higher....came out 3rd on my trends
Report JOCI Club April 19, 2013 11:11 AM BST
The 100% trends were:

Age 8-11

Top 6 finish last time out

Last run less than 61 days

3-6 seasonal runs

Horse's debut race was a bumper or a hurdle

Did not run in the Grand National
Report GoldCupWinner April 19, 2013 2:58 PM BST
Shouldn't Always right hit 5 trends then or do u mean hasn't ever ran in the GN?
Report JOCI Club April 19, 2013 3:10 PM BST
I have him hitting 4 trends on account of not having 3-6 seasonal runs (I excluded his run on 11th May) and also due to the fact that his debut appears to have come in a novice hunter chase (i.e. not a bumper of hurdle).
Report JOCI Club April 20, 2013 5:18 PM BST
The mug on board Monsieur Cadou never ever ever ever ever had any intention of putting the horse in the race. Sad

Even worse, I really fancied, and backed Godsmejudge at Cheltenham. SadSad
Report GoldCupWinner April 20, 2013 5:23 PM BST
Monsieur has never ran any race on good ground, I knew but didn't have funds to lay off as was on Ante post. I too was on Godsmejudge for Cheltenham and it was his run there and that put me off for her. Not sure if it was the better ground or less testing track but he didn't look like stopping today, although the race did fall apart.
Report JOCI Club April 20, 2013 5:27 PM BST
But that ride was shocking. Put him way at the back, and never even give the horse any enouragement. Should have pulled the horse up before the first fence if he was just going through the motions. Trainer and connections decided to run the horse knowing the state of the going, so the horse should have been given a fair chance of winning.
Report GoldCupWinner April 20, 2013 8:04 PM BST
Oh I agree on the ride, I'm not totally sure what the point was except to get it's handicap mark down for the future. Would the handicapper put him down more for running like a drain before pulling up than if he just pulled up before first fence?
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