Horse Antepost
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22 Dec 12
09:51
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Date Joined:
06 Feb 10
MY Grandad told me that in the 1950s a Opinion poll showed that over 50PC of the UK population thought the the Queen descended from God !!! I was amazed at how gullible people must have been ! Well God in a sense ran yesterday beating a horse he was rated 5 stone better that over hurdles !! The layers on Betfair came out hidden as always pretending they were everyones mate " Hey Dave you on that machine simonsig dont go to William hill take the 11/5 here before it goes he's a F******* Machine WOW what JUMPING never seen anything like like it since Arkle WOW what A BEAST FILL YOUR BOOTS - Sad that some believe it just like the 1950s really
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Anyone that backs Simonsig at 11/5 for the Arkle based on yesterdays training gallop is off their trolley
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haha Yes i know
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it might be the best price you see for him before he wins at Cheltenham. Of course that does not mean you should be taking it now. The VC ante post offer is worth taking though as you get to have the bet on something else should he not run in the Arkile
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Yes i agree about VC in this case But why do people queue up at odds under the bookies on here its just lazy or addiction to betfair
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Just to add the number of horses pulled out of top races over the last week would make anyone mad taking those odds on simonsig - AL and Overturn count for a start - and you cant say he will win at cheltenham after one a non race
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no I was referring to the price not getting bigger between now and the Festival, whether he wins is still unsure of course, but I doubt he will ever be a bigger price than he is now
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Sorry i misunderstood but the ground is a unknown factor as we dont know the weather for march !!!!!! I respect Barry G and he thinks a lot of overturn and ask him if 2s and 7s add up
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Barry G thinks a lot of Overturn? huh?
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YES
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why is that even in the slightest bit relevant?
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Captain Conan did it well there in Sandown the last day. He'd have a great chance in the Arkle.
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Captain Conan is not being aimed at the Arkle
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So where is he going then?
My interest in him is the Sadler's Wells angle. |
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You all may say its bad value etc but where are the same people when it comes to laying it? Lost the courage of their convictions? There's 400 quid at 3.25 and less and considering VC are offering 2/1 with a run albeit to small stakes you have to think it should be bigger on here with all these shrewd people convinced its bad value.
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Why put bigger prices up when people will take less !!
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people want money on at 3.2 which is less than most bookies are giving and No Commission !! ha so when betting tax comes back they wont be moaning
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As far as im aware no decision has been made re Captain Conan and i suspect wont be till very near the festival.
Trainers would be a tad silly to do that this early,especially with the weather as it is. |
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Agreed budd and hopefully owner might have some input in decision rather than trainer simply choosing the race for his benefit.
Back to the topic of the thread and I can understand why people may take a position on here rather than bookies prices. Firstly it may simply be to liquidity. But also if you have a bank on here, and want to take a position simply to enable a trade, it would involve using additional monies that would be tied up until the day of the race. That for some might actually be more costly that the commission involved. |
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roobuck i 100 PC understand the bank point and i didnt say CC was DEFO not going in the Arkle just that is NOT his target
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buddeliea
23 Dec 12 09:37 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 7,477 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog As far as im aware no decision has been made re Captain Conan and i suspect wont be till very near the festival. Trainers would be a tad silly to do that this early,especially with the weather as it is. goes to the dipper on new years day so first big signs he is going up in trip |
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But why do you think that is harry?
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Why do I think that is...
well tricky question and obviously they have simonsig which is what you wanted to hear... but on a personal note think the horse is a mudlark until he proves me otherwise and he isn't an arkle horse so makes sense to see him go up in trip as think he has plenty of stamina...his run in the tolworth last year on bottomless ground showed he could be a better horse over a trip...the dipper will tell us the answer and whether they are making a mistake in regards the arkle but I see the jewson as a more likely target as don't think he will have the speed to win an arkle on the likely better ground...if for some reason the arkle was to come up bottomless I may change my view |
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That's fair enough reasoning harry though I don't agree. Ran well enough at Aintree on quicker ground and over 2 miles. One thing is sure that at Cheltenham, especially in the best races, its beneficial to get further.
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agree staying further is key but speed is also key...I'm just not sure about him as an individual (aren't about a lot so don't worry about that) but what I do know in regards to coming up with a wager is I want most things in my favour and don't believe captain conan unless it is soft will have his ideal conditions, his run at aintree should be treated with a tad of caution even if the winner proves to be a champion hurdle horse as most horses had had a long campaign by then except conan who had missed cheltenham
like you say it doesn't conclude he is a complete mud lark but he is for me to be seen at his best...we will see and i certainly wouldn't tear up my ticket for the arkle but he isn't for me and don't look at the jewson till nearer the day so that isn't an option either for me anyways... |