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toberaheena
18 Dec 12 21:56
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Date Joined: 01 May 04
| Topic/replies: 2,644 | Blogger: toberaheena's blog
If you think Long Run is a horse who runs well in the King George on Boxing Day and now that Ad Ferof and Sizing Eorope are almost certainly non runners, then the 3/1 available just now here in Betfair is obvious value.
Pause Switch to Standard View Betfair best on Long Run by a mile.
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Report harry callaghan December 18, 2012 10:04 PM GMT
what price do you think he'll be on the day tober??
Report toberaheena December 18, 2012 10:22 PM GMT
Howdi Harry....there is a declaration stage the day after tomorrow. We will then have a market that just about will be indicative of the prices on the day. With wet weather forecast for the next week or so, we may see most of the Irish trainers giving Kempton a miss.There are option with Leopardstown and Limerick on, and barring a few races, the Irish prize money is still better than U.K. You may see McCoy et al getting instructions from their retainers to stand by for riding instructions a lot closer to the day. It is possible that we may see a reasonable King George field cutting up badly. That being the case I reckon Long Run to have an sp of about 9/4.
Report harry callaghan December 18, 2012 10:33 PM GMT
interesting whats on at limerick then?? didn't have it cutting up as much as yourself but good luck with the price edge...will be very interested to see how it materializes...
Report toberaheena December 18, 2012 10:39 PM GMT
Usual annual 4 days ( I think )  Christmas meeting at Limerick. Both Leopardstown and Limerick should drain well if necessary. New Limerick course is a joy to attend. Top class facilities there. Will post a whisper if I have one.
Report harry callaghan December 18, 2012 10:43 PM GMT
sorry was talking about, what relevance limerick was in regards the king george....
Report toberaheena December 18, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
@harry again....I mentioned Limerick racecourse as an option for Irish trainers if travel to any U.K. tack became problematic. Most trainers will leave an Irish entry stand even though their intention is to travel accross the Irish Sea. Obviously we will not be talking King George class, but for other engagements.....now are we on the same wavelenght ..lol.....by the way I see some money around the place now for Long Run . Watch oddschecker.
Report tinkler December 19, 2012 4:40 PM GMT
You could be right Tobe ,since his Gold Cup win he's started at 6/5,evens,4/7,7/4 and 11/8. Only won one of those races though.
Report toberaheena December 20, 2012 5:51 AM GMT
The more I think about it, I keep ending up with one proven horse under course and distance who will travel through muddy conditions.Not once, mind you, but on 3 or 4 occasions. And they do not mess their horse around as they are well off people with a liking for horse racing . Stable in form also which is a major plus. Guess what horse for nil points.
Report toberaheena December 20, 2012 5:55 AM GMT
Henderson's yard out of form should be a red flag for punters after Christmas. I may be wrong and he is holding back the good ones but recent stats are a worry.
Report toberaheena December 20, 2012 5:57 AM GMT
This looks like being a very average King George to me.
Report buddeliea December 20, 2012 7:36 AM GMT
The way the weathers going,you could well be right.
Thats if its on!!
Report harry callaghan December 22, 2012 8:01 PM GMT
race cutting up a treat for you tober...well predicted the price is contracting accordingly...

are you micheal fish in disguiseGrin
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