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ThunderRoad
13 Dec 12 20:46
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Date Joined: 09 May 12
| Topic/replies: 6,295 | Blogger: ThunderRoad's blog
Zarkandar, Rock on Ruby or Grandouet?

I really liked Grandouet last year, and think he can do the business here.  Having won the race in the past doesn't do it any harm either. Zarkandar is undoubtedly dangerous with 4 pounds in hand and a stiff 17 furlongs, but this is arguably too sharp? Rock on Ruby will run well, but was undoubtedly flattered by his CH win (and I backed him Laugh)

Will take 5/2 on Grandouet I think.

I would probably have booked it...

Rock on Ruby 2/1
Zarkandar 2/1
Grandouet 2/1

So, Grandouet looks the value?

Verdict?
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Report ThunderRoad December 13, 2012 8:49 PM GMT
Actually, I would probably have priced Zarkandar slightly shorter with hindsight - maybe 7/4, with Rock on Ruby a slightly longer price.
Report sintonian December 13, 2012 9:30 PM GMT
I don't know about this race.

I think Zarkandar deserves to be favourite based on the fact we have seen him this season, where he won, and he receives 4lb from the other 2.

Grandouet is returning from a tricky injury so personally would like to see him run first, but obviously connections are happy with him.

ROR I have a feeling will be seen to better affect in March, but the trainer says he is ready to go full tilt so we'll see.

The going is GS,S in places, and likely to be Soft on Saturday.
Report booster December 13, 2012 9:59 PM GMT
Surely if you think Rock On Ruby nicked the Champion Hurdle from the front that will be easier in this race?
Report roobuck December 13, 2012 10:30 PM GMT
Fancy Zark for the big one so on that basis I obviously see him as the likely winner being race fit and receiving the 4lbs.
Report GoldCupWinner December 13, 2012 10:53 PM GMT
Isn't ROR best when fresh though? I think he'll be ready to win tomorrow if good enough. Very interesting contest. My choice would be to lay Grandeout after the injury. Tough ask to win a race of this quality after such a long lay off.
Report booster December 14, 2012 6:40 AM GMT
It is and I won't be having a bet but Rock On Ruby gave loads of weight and a big beating to Raya Star first time out last season and didn't run between Kempton at Christmas and Cheltenham. Can't see him running again after tomorrow until March. On Newbury handicap form with Raya Star, he's a better horse over 2 miles than Zarkandar and showed it in last year's Champion and I don't see why Nicholls' horse, who I think wants a trip, is favourite.
Report buddeliea December 14, 2012 7:42 AM GMT
Think it simply depends on the fitness of ROR,hes the best in the race imo,but hes to give 4lb to a horse thats already been out,that could be crucial.
To me its a watch race and hopefully ROR will run well and come March will prove to be best again.
Report roobuck December 14, 2012 9:45 AM GMT
Whether Zarkandar deserves to be favourite for this is a moot point as i think most would agree its a very tight race, one to watch with interest and not invest in.

I'm not sure we can take his form last year at face value as he had problems prior to the Betfair and then coughed etc. Much of price may be due to PFNs confidence in the horse.

I didn't watch the CH live last year and was listening on radio. At a time when most horses are primed to the max, it was noteworthy that at the time the paddock said he looked awful. Given that I thought his performance was striking. Trainer has made a point of saying how good he looks this year and whilst the Elite was not much of a race, he at least won over he distance on a sharp track.

ROR may well beat him at Newbury, but on each run at HQ Zarkandar has seemed to absolutely relish the hill and so a strong 2 miles there is right up his street.

I can easily see the arguments for the other two, hopefully the ground won't spoil things and they all stand their ground.
Report bazzar December 14, 2012 1:48 PM GMT
Rock on ruby did not win the champion hurdle last year, it was Hurricane Run.
Report duffy December 14, 2012 1:59 PM GMT
I couldn't really pick between ROR and Zark, I have an inkling though that with it looking to maybe a real test in the conditions that , that might find grandouet, the other two look like stronger stayers if things get tough, ROR will surely be hard fit, very impressive first time up last year, and i reckon the young lad will want him ready to do himself justice, perhaps though the race fir coupled with the weight concession will just allow Zarkandar to edge it.
Report duffy December 14, 2012 2:00 PM GMT
^
Can't even understand that mess myselfLaughCry
Report roobuck December 14, 2012 2:14 PM GMT
If you really want to be pedantic bazz then might I suggest that the winner was actually Hurricane Fly.
Report bazzar December 14, 2012 2:52 PM GMT
Correct ROO, it's the weather y'know.
Report sintonian December 14, 2012 3:41 PM GMT
Has Bazzar come on to spoil the thread?
Report booster December 14, 2012 4:42 PM GMT
Andre Fabre's only ever runner at Cheltenham?
Report roobuck December 14, 2012 4:53 PM GMT
He came on sint being a bit of an arse saying actually last years winner of CH wasn't ROR - obviously we all understood it to be last season. He then said the winner was Hurricane Run Laugh

No constructive suggestion on who might win the race or about the protaganists
Report festivalfanatic December 14, 2012 4:56 PM GMT
I've had a little bit on Grandouet for the CH but can see him ducking this race tomorrow becasue of the ground. It will be desperate. Xmas Hurdle?
Report roobuck December 14, 2012 5:07 PM GMT
They did say they'd give him an entry ff. If so what would he do with JP horses?
Report Fallen Angel December 14, 2012 6:03 PM GMT
This is a real tricky race and difficult to say there is much between the first three in the betting. Really excited to watch it live tomorrow easily the best race on the card and well worth the admission price. Thought that Grandouet would be the least suited of three to the conditions as looks the purest 2 mile horse in the race, Zarkandar has shaped like he would get further and ROR has run over further. Was a bit suprised to see ROR priced up the biggest of the three runners on the betfair AP market as a previous champion hurdle winner and best form in the book. In a match bet with Grandouet I would be on him considering the conditions.

With regard to Zarkandar he should be match fit and sounds like he will go on the ground. He is receiving a helpful pull in the weights which may be crucial.

Just a brilliant race and very difficult to call
Report sintonian December 14, 2012 8:13 PM GMT
flat french-breds usually handled Heavy going don't they.

ROR's sire has some winners on Heavy, like Oscars Well for example, but sometimes you just dont know until they run on it.
Report sintonian December 14, 2012 8:15 PM GMT
Aye Roo. We all knew what was meant then Bazza steps up with his pedantry again.
Report bazzar December 15, 2012 12:13 AM GMT
The FACT is that ROCK ON RUBY did NOT win the Champion Hurdle last year,
they made the same mistake in the WEEKENDER and I do NOT make a habit of forecasting
and THAT IS MY CHOICE, why should I point you lot anywhere?
Report duffy December 15, 2012 3:15 PM GMT
Initial gut reaction would be to say that zarkandar is the one i fancy least now out the 3 for the champion hurdle.
Report sisyphus December 15, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
I take Grandouet out of the race, both the first two would have liked more pace. Zarkandar scares me the way he just steps over the hurdles, nimble and fast at them when it comes off but can see how he fell at Aintree now.
Report roobuck December 15, 2012 3:34 PM GMT
I can understand your viewpoints and certainly Grandouet comes out of the race with an awful lot of credit.

Still believe that if Zarkandar turns up 100% and is thereabouts at the final flight, nothing will finish better than him. That could be a big 'if' however - will certainly need a fast pace.
Report GoldCupWinner December 15, 2012 3:59 PM GMT
I think Zarkander is one of those horses who needs rousting along. Did you notice the jockey on board was only concenred about Grandeout even though if appeared ROR was going better at the time? I thought it was very telling. Grandeout is very talented but not sure I've seen him find too much off the bridle as of yet.
Report sintonian December 15, 2012 9:13 PM GMT
That Zarkandar is a tough nut to crack. I'm nut sure he has the speed for a decent ground 2m championship race?
Report Fallen Angel December 16, 2012 3:36 PM GMT
Was there yesterday and it was a difficult race to judge, Grandoeut looked the first one beat and then stayed on again, ROR came upside Zarkandar, and I thought he was going to win before fading over / clattering the last. The ground was extremely tacky and out of three I took Grandoeut performance as the most taking, had been off a long time, would have preferred faster ground and will come along for the run. If it came up soft or heavy for whatever reason at the festival then I would probably want to be on Zarkandar as he was going away again at the end, although still think HF would be most suited to this type of CH.

Still incredibly difficult to draw any firm conclusions as the weight pull and going all cloud the picture. The time was 30 seconds + worse than Grandoeut in the International last year but the one thing you know is that at least that horse did seem to be showing any ill effects of all the time off the track
Report buddeliea December 16, 2012 5:01 PM GMT
Would have been very interesting had Oscar Whisky ran in that race instead of the Relkeel,think he would have won it to be honest.
Soft ground festival sees him in with a big chance.
Report roobuck December 16, 2012 5:07 PM GMT
Agreed budd with HF his main challenger. I'm just going to chip away with small amounts here and there

The more and more I think about the festival, the less likely I think the 'normal' conditions will prevail. The water is so high and going to remain that way for some time, its never going to take much rain to have a big impact on the going
Report tinkler December 16, 2012 7:10 PM GMT
Think you could be right about the ground Roo. Ground was particularly quick for last years CH and pretty quick when Oscar Whisky came
third the year before. Ground worst there's been on New course for at least 10 years yesterday and it's not like the Flat when you can get a warm spell to dry it out. Track drains well though, but still must be an above average chance they'll be more cut than usual.
Report sintonian December 16, 2012 7:21 PM GMT
before the PP meeting Simon Claisse was saying it was the first time in many years his staff were not required to water the track before the start of the season. The track has been irrigated naturally due to all the rainfall.
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