Dawn Approach 2000G

He seems a very genuine horse, who though as you say doesn't appear to have a particular turn of foot, does have the best form, especially the Coventry. That being said I don't think the VOB and Dewhurst were good races at all.

Personally I have looked elsewhere and if it were me with fancy prices I'd have traded at least some of it out by now as 7/2 is too short.

Good luck however

thanks roobuck, I think the dewhurst was average at worst with  George Vancouver going onto the bleeders cup and preforming very well on favoured good ground. i have already traded out half my stake at just less than that but im tempted to trade the lot out after looking at the likes of the recently deceased Spartacus and Johannesburg never training out out after being very early as 2yr old. althought DA gives every impression of a 3yr old in the making it the burst of speed i can see doing him. But i guess my question was is 7/2 too short

DMCK

Well he does have the best form. He is bred to be a miler and although he may lack instant acceleration, a number of very hard to beat horses had a different style to the "turn of foot" sorts who I like personally. Dawn Approach has been betting from start to finish faster than all comers in all the right 2yo races and he must have a decent chance of doing so again at the start of the season especially. I would sit tight for now and panic nearer the time.

7/2 about the champion 2yo for the Guineas is about right maybe. He hasn't been winning like Celtic Swing, Frankel or Zafonic, but they were odds on come Guineas day.

I think Jim Bolger is the most likely to get him to the race in decent form just to please his new owners so you may be able to lay off your bet at a profit nearer the time.

In terms of the opposition I liked personally the Hannon horse Olympic Glory. He is said to be likely to go the france though - a huge error in my opinion as he looks very useful indeed, and came from a mile back to take second in the Coventry.

Kingsbarns is another obvious one but he has been drifting and he may need a bit further to show his very best.

I think if dawn approach shows up on the day he will be a lot shorter than 7/2.Obviously we wont know if he has trained on but if he does make it there he will be trained to the minute.Unlikely to improve for the run anyway.
One observation about bolgers recent guineas runners is that many had their best run of the season in the race or were perceived to have run above themselves,Gan amhras,cuis ghaire and gile na greine spring to mind.

Dawn Approach to me is almost a blueprint of his sire. Both unbeaten as 2 year olds while finishing with the Dewhurst. He takes his time to get in top gear but he then maintains it and stays on really well. They will have to commit early in the 2000G but it will take a good one to beat it. New Approach just got touched off by Henrythenavigator but i think Dawn Approach has more fire power.

Also i think he is a real price for the Derby.

Angel, I got some 33/1 from PP on the 2,000/Derby double (last Autumn). Ambitious I know but he would be a hell of a lot shorter if he wins the 2,000 as I think he will.
I could see him being ridden similar to STS.

John

I see absolutely no reason why he will not make into a Derby horse. New Approach by Galileo etc and would be odds on to be effective around Epsom.

Kingsbarns is yet to race on good ground which will surely benefit him and could be head and shoulders above everything else over 10/12f but also Dawn Approach could keep on improving and prove a tough nut to crack.

GL

my only doubts about the derby for DA stem from the  Equinome Speed Gene test which JSB is a partner in. he has done it on DA and the rumor is that his chance of staying the derby is less than New Approach's so i think that might have a bearing on if he goes, but with his natural cruising speed i wouldnt lay him if he is sent for it. i think i was merely over thinking the situation and im going to avoid any trade on him till later in the year.
A big plus for me is this mild irish winter vs a very cold UK winter. i think that must be a big positive. Last time there was a proper big freeze in both UK and Ireland the french horse Makfi came over and won the 2000G. always worth bearing in mind

I'd have question marks on both on quick ground

only for it making others to kick and use a turn of foot. i dont think any going condition will affect him

A big plus for me is this mild irish winter vs a very cold UK winter

What? We've had 2-4 days of cold weather and all of a sudden its a very cold winter.

Last time there was a proper big freeze in both UK and Ireland the french horse Makfi came over and won the 2000G.

Wasn't last year bad in both Ireland and UK?

no there was a big freeze in the christmas of 2009 early 2010, held up Ballydoyle in  a bit way that year. Last year we had no snow and not a excessive amount of rain to my memory.

the way i have been told from my sister who studies not all that far from newmarket is that there has been  a lot of snow for nearly week now and if that pushes into next week it could hold up the start of their work. Not a huge factor but a factor none the less.

DMCK - not all horses are trained in Newmarket.

No snow last year? Really? One of our memories has gone. It could well be me

well maybe donegal and ulster but Leinster and north Munster were mild by my memory!!

i appreciate that Roo but its just a working Hypothesis i work off for the Guineas. has no bearing on the Derby in my view! I was told before (dont remember who) that Guineas types begin in 2nd/3rd week of Jan

Bolger seems adamant that he will be an out and out miler who will struggle to get 10f. He says he is built like a sprinter but he is confident he will become a top miler.

Don`t forget his gallops are a replica for the Rowley Mile with an identical dip.

Trading Leather will be his Derby hope so perhaps any suggestion Dawn Approach will tackle the Derby is premature. Insightful interview here with JB.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GO7ui2OEnTU

saw that awhile back Angel. What really intersts me at the moment is Leitir Mor who i have been told has always been thought of highly. I can see him winning the Irish Guineas if DA sidesteps it. JSB has a few strings to his bow for next year with the very nice son of Teofilo Loch Garman winning a Group 1 in France. Both Trading Leather and Loch Garman are derby types in my book. be very interesting to see who Manning picks come the time.

Just looking at the breeding of all these animals and Galileo seems to have monopoly on everything. It`s a one stallion show at the moment.

anyone have an opinion on van der neer? was really impressed with him last year, didn't seem to act  in rp trophy but still ran a blinder. think he is a big guineas contender

Would have at least Toronado & Olympic Glory ahead of Van from his own stable to start with Tascro.

well DMCK,your horse could well become one of the 98.75% club.Which means statistically he has only a 1.25% chance of winning an English Classic in 2013.
Henry The Navigator bucked the trend,and we know that stats get broke,but you'll need some luck,best of luck anyway.

my grip with van der neer, is that he has been breed to be a quick 2yr old likes its sibling Goodwood Treasure who was a 6F 2yr old and the fact that he got a mile at 2 on soft doesnt tell me he has bundles of speed and it will be interesting how he develops over the summer, the way i read him is that he wont be a group 1 horse. Hannon will send him to a 7F trial i expect

Pipedreamer, im not following your stat on Dawn Approch v Henry. I as a rule think the Coventry is the most telling 2year old race of the year and the winner is always one to keep onside. Henry needed the good group and thats what restricted him being all he could be as a 2year old. He had a serious turn of foot which killed out New Approach in newmarket in the Guineas.But the way DA won the Coventry screamed he wanted further and i dare say Henry could have done 7F easy that day even tho he showed a true burst of speed.

Is there any French Colt that might be overlooked?

DMCK, I used to think that about the Coventry and backed Power antepost for the 2000G on the strength of it last year. Have you ever read ahead of the handicapper by Jon Gibby? He has a table in there that shows that 2 year olds who come out and win a listed or better race later in the season are more likely to make better 3 year olds than horse who win at Royal Ascot. I have kept it up myself from 2009+ and since then 2yo winners at RA have raced 75 times aged 3 or older and only 4 have won at group 1 level. One is Canford Cliffs, 2 others are Samitar and Power who both won in Ireland last year in what I thought was a weak crop of 3 year old milers and Zaidan who won in Hong Kong. In Power's 2000G the horses who finished 8th, 9th and last where the only ones to win during the rest of the season and Samitar was followed home by the winner of the Jersey Stakes who was 2nd and Yellow Rosebud who a group 3.

If you compare that to a list of horses who won a listed race or higher, over a mile+, after RA and within the first 3 races of their career, the number of runs at 3 years plus is 87 with 28 wins at group 1. The horses include Frankel, Camelot, St Nicholas Abbey and Blue Bunting, 3 of whom won a guineas. Another was White Moonstone who was favourite for the 1000G. Current qualifiers I have are Go Angelica, Battle of Marengo, Certify, Trading Leather, Kingsbarns and Willie the Whipper.

I always find it a difficult guessing game about which horses are the main contenders from Ballydoyle for the classics. They usually have a racecourse gallop that has been live on ATR the last couple of years in March time and also the  entries for the Irish classics are usually out and they are strong pointers to their thinking. I had also backed Apollo for the Derby and he didn't race all season. I think their main Guineas horse this year could be George Vancouver who AOB thought good enough to race in the Prix Morny, the Dewhurst and then the Breeders Cup. I have backed him @26. I also thought Tawhid was impressive at Newbury and the only other horse I have backed is Montiridge after his debut although I think he is to be aimed at the French Guineas.

Sometimes a horse shortens in the betting during February or March based on a good piece of work on the gallops (can't remember who it was last year, Top Offer I think?) but I think it is really hard to judge due the terrible weather we had last year. The fact that DA has been in Ireland over the winter could be a bonus as I would imagine he will be starting his work for the race now where as the British based runners might not be out yet because of the snow.

Laast winner of Coventry to win an English Classic?,Mill Reef 40 years ago.Lots of luck!!!.

Henrythenavigator?

Yes Henrythenavigator won the Coventry and the 2000 Guineas. Rock of Gibraltar was 6th in the Coventry and then won it.

lets be clear that im not saying that the Coventry is a race that throws up 2000Guineas winners but throws up good racehorses that are G1 standards.
staring from 2005 (only made G2 in 2004). Red Clubs wasnt a miler but proved a useful highclass sprinter. Hellvelyn: wasnt a miler or a sprinter at 3 and its logical to say he was a very forward 2year old at time of Coventry and by far the weakest to win the race since it was a G2. Henry was a top drawer horse although he needed the ground to be like a road to get the best out of him and won both Irish and Newmarket Guineas. Art Connoisseur was a good 2year old and went on to be a G1 winning sprinter at 3 and i think he'd have been even better as a 4yr old sprinter. Canford was very good at 2, 3 and 4 although he had some of his own ideas and needed to be ridden a certain way. Strong Suit from the same connections as Canford was a good 2 yr old but had his problem, needed a wind op over winter fro m2 to 3 and also needed good ground and still Hannon wasnt sure his ideal trip and flirted with 6F 7F and a mile with him. Power was a lovely 2 year old, might not have been fully fit for Guineas after having a swet back in December/Jan in his Guineas prep and the soft didnt help him but he bounced back and race a great race and solid time winning the Irish Guineas but had a few training problems from there and its not known how solid he was.

from all these bar Hellveln the winners of the coventry have been very high class and its important to note how the race has become much more important in the racing calender. The Coventry is very fashionable on a stallions CV in these modern times where breeders want a quick 2 year old and the max stamina they want is a mile and half.

Michrich i also agree that the weather is in favour of IRE trained horses who will have 2 weeks more work done than UK rivals.

Surely there will be no turf work done on either side of the water - all just conditioning work on the all weather. I think you'll find those gallops open at Newmarket for example at the moment

George Vancouver drifted on here last few days to 40. I can't find anything to say there has been a set back but I am guessing it will come out at some point.

sure didnt power have some set back around the xmas and we only got told on the 1st day of the Curragh. Not the most forthcoming but why should they be.

I think that is a side of horse racing that could be argued either way DMCK. My personal opinion is that part of the sport is to do with betting and that if there is a problem with a horse they could issue a small press release saying why. I know that Anne-Marie O'Brien is on twitter and she could even issue news on that. Someone obviously knows something and that is why the horse has drifted on the exchanges and they are profiting from that inside information. Is that fair? I have had my bets down since the Breeders Cup but some people must have had bets matched in the last week or so and now that money is more than likely lost. When Big Bucks and Al Ferof were injured we found out through the trainer and not because of any price movement on here.

im not sure anyone in Ballydoyle is profiting more like friends of friends are profiting, wasnt 2 stable staff brought up on laying horses from the stable but their accounts were net losing and not for a substantial sum of net matched stakes. (although one does wonder what their accounts with tradition bookmakers look like).

I stand on the issue that those who pay the bills ultimately make the decisions but i think that if like the case of big bucks the future race is 100% out of way they should announce it, but a setback of something small should not. (also the flat game with so much breeding at stake the new of a "weakness" or injury is a negative and can affect a stallion at this time of year) (although i expect most nominations to be signed and sealed by now)

Fair point.

On a different note, if GV is out who out of Kingsbarns, Mars or Cristoforo Coloumbo do you think is their leading contender for the race?

one would have to think cristoforo tho going for the 6f G1 in his last race was puzzling. I think we have to take Pedro the Great into account tho, if we have good ground most of HTN stock should improve.

I am very much of the opinion that Mars is a hype horse who put in a few nice gallops early in year and a few of the staff wanted a nice price on him, 33s or 25s was fair but i think IF he is though of in some regard it will be over a derby trial he'll first be out.

Kingsbarn didnt hit me as having enough speed, St Nic and Camleot should much more toe when taking the RP.