Horse Antepost
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While I've been an AP backer of Bobs Worth 6's and Saint Are 16's for this I have one more thing to add..
My case for one last chance for Diamond Harry.
In the Betfair Chase last year he was the only one who could go with Kauto at the business end, his breathing problems meant he quickly emptied then, but he'd been travelling and jumping well. He was a big dissappointment after the Argento where his breathing problem was diagnosed. He then had a breathing op mid season and went to the Gold Cup where he suffered some hock problems and clutching at straws he was pulled up on his final start at Aintree.
Optimism was about this season having hopefully put a troubled season behind him. But a knock meant he missed his intended target at Wetherby and instead ran right handed for the first time in the Badger Ales where he was not going a yard. So with 45PP-P form in his last 5 runs you'd be mad to back him for the Hennessy.
Possibly, but there are reasons not to consider a bold run at Newbury beyond the realms of possibility for 3 reasons.
Firstly, he had breathing problems followed by mid season operation followed by hock problems last season. We could chalk it down to an unfortunate one, look at Kauto Stars rise from the ashes at the age of 11.
Secondly, his record at Newbury 11121 is impressive. He likes left handed galloping tracks, and he'll like this ground.
Finally, his mark is now down to 143 after his latest pulling up when going right handed for the first time. It means he will race off 7lb lower mark than when he won the Hennessy and also will race off a feather weight 10-3 for the first time since that day 2 years ago.
Call me mad, by Odins beard it's an accurace statment. But I'm giving this horse one final chance, If he can't produce the goods with everything possible in his favour then he has to be finished.
Backed @ 34.0 and will add e/w day of the race.
My case for one last chance for Diamond Harry.
In the Betfair Chase last year he was the only one who could go with Kauto at the business end, his breathing problems meant he quickly emptied then, but he'd been travelling and jumping well. He was a big dissappointment after the Argento where his breathing problem was diagnosed. He then had a breathing op mid season and went to the Gold Cup where he suffered some hock problems and clutching at straws he was pulled up on his final start at Aintree.
Optimism was about this season having hopefully put a troubled season behind him. But a knock meant he missed his intended target at Wetherby and instead ran right handed for the first time in the Badger Ales where he was not going a yard. So with 45PP-P form in his last 5 runs you'd be mad to back him for the Hennessy.
Possibly, but there are reasons not to consider a bold run at Newbury beyond the realms of possibility for 3 reasons.
Firstly, he had breathing problems followed by mid season operation followed by hock problems last season. We could chalk it down to an unfortunate one, look at Kauto Stars rise from the ashes at the age of 11.
Secondly, his record at Newbury 11121 is impressive. He likes left handed galloping tracks, and he'll like this ground.
Finally, his mark is now down to 143 after his latest pulling up when going right handed for the first time. It means he will race off 7lb lower mark than when he won the Hennessy and also will race off a feather weight 10-3 for the first time since that day 2 years ago.
Call me mad, by Odins beard it's an accurace statment. But I'm giving this horse one final chance, If he can't produce the goods with everything possible in his favour then he has to be finished.
Backed @ 34.0 and will add e/w day of the race.
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Replies: 36
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Because I agree with every word you have written
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CV,you are mad
 Wish you Good luck though,anythings possible in this game,even DH coming back to his best form. At least hes a price where you can take a chance,unlike the shorter prices hes been in the hope hes been deceiving us with his poor form. |
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Look at it this way, at the best morning price on the day he'll be 25/1 or 20/1. At those odds it ain't gonna hurt that much giving him one more chance given in racing terms a horse has never ever has as much in his favour before. Of course odds are he's finished. But he's priced up as such.
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Good luck CVB. He's obviously quirky - like many Sir Harry Lewis's - and one time talented. I will not be playing in the race, so hope he delivers for you.
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Bud if you write off last season given he had 2 seperate problems and take it he hated going right handed on his run this season. He may be on an absurdly low mark of 143. We'll see, but year not gonna hurt the bank if I'm wrong.
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yeh,i agree,for once hes a sensibleish price for his form,unlike previous times when his fans have chosen to ignore his form.
seems now even those have now taken note of what hes been telling us. i may be wrong,but i think the horse was gone some time ago. saturday without doubt is last chance saloon. |
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I did back him AP for the Charlie Hall, but left him alone in the Badger Ales.
A bit twitchy, but surely we'd have seen more first time out? May do, but will have to be when NRNB and be 25/1 + |
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Ridden with the pace from the start, up there with Fruity O'Rooney. Hopefully combined with he light weight, soft ground and fav track will see him interested.
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I can see the reasoning CV, but having to forgive a horse 3 consecutive abysmal runs has never been my preferred approach ! Good luck tho ...
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Have already gone over the cliff with DH and i am officially dead. Would kill me a second time if he wins and spoil my beer on Saturday.
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Tempted to having a saver on him myself.
There are a lot worse bets/suggestions on here and if he does still retain any of his previous ability then is on a fantastic mark. Frisco Depot is my main bet in the race though. |
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Great post OP. I too will join in at these bigger prices. A lot to ask but if he somehow gets even close to what he used to be he'll have 20lb in hand!
Frisco Depot would be my bet too but have to factor in jockey. Travelled like a dream lto |
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I backed him at Wincanton, and knew after 1/2 mile I'd done my money.He jumped, or rather didn't jump, like a horse nursing an injury in my option. Very surprised to see him out again so soon, and I think he should be 33-1 to complete the course. Of course, if he runs to his best, he wins, but he doesn't look right at all to me.
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personally i think ,cv ,your on a wing and a prayer but gl anyway.i will be laying it for a place.
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I know odds are he's finished.
But he has a fair excuse for being poor last season he had 2 problems breathing and hock. While this season he either hated going right handed or he showed he has gone sour for the game. If it's the former, he got dropped a further 7lbs to a full 19lbs below the mark he rant to winning this race 2 years ago. If he's back to anything near his best he's chucked in off 143. He's got everything you could possibly pick for him to make ideal conditions. Fail to get in the first 5 or 6 and he has to be finished at the game. |
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dont know if this any consolation cv but mordin tips it in the weekender today!
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That's not helpful, as it'll reduce the price I get for him on Sat. I dislike tipsters. Do plenty well on my own with the help of good dicussion. Tipsters just hurt the prices we get for horses we're going to back regardless.
Thanks for the heads up btw. Will explain the blue on oddchecker. |
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Diamond was 50 on here a fortnight ago, wrongly assumed he would be that price or higher after the racing, so about 3 hours later went in to bet and the price had dropped to 23,
so I took the 33 with bookies. I would suggest the 25 with bookies is worth a bite, C.V. GOOD LUCK BY THE WAY. |
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If he fails this time he'll always be given one more chance over and over again , simply because he is one of those horses that people are afraid not to be with just in case we see him cantering and jumping away from fence to fence...his supporters wouldn't be able to live with missing the day he puts it all together one more time....we've all got those kind of horses.
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I came to the same conclusion CV
Diamond Harry 37.77 £13.43 £493.77 Also got 15e-w at 33s with 365. Not a horse you can trust but you don't need to risk much at these prices. GL £13.43 |
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Look, if he doesn't come in the first 6 he has to be finished. He's racing off 143. How can he have anything more in his favour.
Anyway. I took 34.0 and ew @ 25/1. I'd love to see him join the camp of 3. |
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Can't see any point at all backing him each way. If he's somehow miraculously back to health/form, he will win easily. If he runs like he has every time for the last year, he will be pulled up a mile from home. I can't see any scenario where he's 2nd, 3rd or 4th.
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What BarryM said. Either win twice as much or (more likely) save half your stake.
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yep,makes sense to me as well
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can see some kind of argument fore backing
but repeating what others have said there is no angle in betting him eway if he fancies it or whatever he WILL win if he doesnt he wont finish |
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well i cant believe that ive actually now backed him!! And thats before the day!!!!! must be mad.
Truth is i could not stand it if he does win,and CV starts banging on Minimum bet though. |
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Me too! Part of the rationale is that with the ground drying, a horse like Dirty, that potentially is so well in, might the only chance of preventing Bobs Worth winning
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well we will know our fate fairly early on i reckon,3 scenarios really.
1)he starts off prominent in which case we have a chance 2)starts off held up in which case he gets pulled up 3)dont start at all!! |
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Welcome aboard bud & roo
I hope he's racing prominently and it may make him interested. The one thing that sticks in my mind was his run in last years Betfair Chase where he was going with Kauto, they both jumped Long Run into a mistake down the back. Then he emptied, obviously due to his breathing problem. Anyway, as we've said, he's a price worth taking a minimum risk punting on. As for the ew, most of my bet is on the win side, just feel with two really classy horses in Bobs and FL in there, a return to some decent form may not be enough to win. |
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Signs were there for about the first 4 fences, hit one and seemed to lose all confidence. His jumping technique has never been great, just doesn't seem to sort his back end out. Last hope would be to put him back over hurdles imo
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I think the next tome you see DH (if ever) under rules will be in a hunter chase.
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yes i think we can say sadly that harry is well past his best and now has more letters than numbers next to his name ,love the horse and he gave me one of my best wins when he won the hennesy , hope your noting this ilwab (if that dont get me on to the aftertiming thread, i give up)sad to see this horse not hitting the hights he once promised !
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yes i think we can say sadly that harry is well past his best and now has more letters than numbers next to his name ,love the horse and he gave me one of my best wins when he won the hennesy , hope your noting this ilwab (if that dont get me on to the aftertiming thread, i give up)sad to see this horse not hitting the hights he once promised !
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Agree 100%
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