Japan Cup 2012

I don't fancy the Arc 1st or 2nd in this.  Iirc Orfevre's trainer was talking about building him back up after his Arc exertions.
Where do you get the race card / form?

You can find all the race info at japanracing.jp, very good website!

Try this link for a form guide, click on last 5 runs. http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/...

No Japan Cup market on Betfair, and few bookies offering prices.  Will it improve nearer the race?

Thanks for the info above.

I like Gentildonna although herself Orfevre & Solemia all drawn wide

Any thoughts on Dark Shadow? SHould stay on breeding. Actually started just 4/1 in the Tenno Sho and looks huge at 20/1 here. Has a good jock in Demuro on board who has won this race before. He's something of a course specialist too. Will need luck in running but at his price 20/1 is worth a few quid on him. Cheers

what time is this uk time please ?

6.40 AM I think turnip. It should be on ATR!

thanks Dino

No Japan Cup market.
I have forwarded your request to our market operations team, unfortunately, on this occasion they cannot offer these markets as they are not commercially viable.

What costs?  Just type in the runners and let us bet.

Surely the market can be set to close at a specified time?

ie create market and then set it to be automatically suspended at 6AM on Sunday. Settle the bets lunch time or whenever.

Orfevre is easily the best horse here. He may not be drawn well but then he wasn't in the Arc. It was the ****g ground which cost him.

I'll go with Gentildonna. 8/1 seems a fair price to me considering her achievements this season. C&D win in the Oaks was top quality for what it was.....I've got no angle how good the 3yr old fillies are and how it translates vs older male horses so we'll just have to see on Sunday how it all works out. But in the Oaks she was drawn out wide, dropped back early and settled way off the pace before flying home nicely to win going away. Her little unbeaten streak she's got going since the Guineas surely has her down as a decent enough horse for this sort of race.   

and

Eishin Flash did rather well last time and might be back to his best. He was only beat 3parts of length by Orfevre in the Arima Kinen and maybe just keeping it simple might be a good idea ie If he's back to his AK form and Orferve decides to blow his lines again then that 12/1 will look awfully good.

If Mount Athos wins this like Alkaassed did I'll be really cross. melbourne cup failure was all on ryan. knew after the first furlong I had done my money. great draw and blows it completely. why blow the draw??? why? :(

I still don't think the ground was the problem, it was Soummy getting his timing wrong and going for home too soon!

The comments below from the monsters trainer rub more salt into the Arc wound!

Yasutoshi Ikee (trainer)

"In the very end of the Arc his bad habit came out. After he crossed the finish line, he accelerated so much that the rider couldn’t even shake hands with Peslier. To think that he still had so much left just makes it all the worse. After coming back to Japan and going through quarantine, we took him to Northern Farm Shigaraki. During the trip from France he’d lost 20 kg but he quickly regained that and from outer appearances looked back in shape. He came back to Ritto on Nov. 17. Last week Ikezoe rode him up the hill course and, like in his last race, he moved in to the rail when he got out in front. There was no other problem with his workout and I think his movement was pretty good. I’d say he was in almost too good of shape for the Arc so he wouldn’t have gotten back to that point in such a short time, but he has slowly put on muscle. The main thing is that he can be able to run balanced and straight. If he can do that, we should be able to get results. This week's fast work was the same and rain the night before had the ground soft. I think it was hard for him and that's why he hung left, then right. But his wind is good. In any case, I hope he can run a race fitting for a horse that represents Japan."

I agree Sint, Orfevre should win this race and in my eyes he is one of the best I've seen but I'm really worried about the record of Arc runners in this race. The great Montjeu tried and failed, Danedream didn't show her best form and also Nakayama Festa ran a stinker. There are more as well and at a short price I'm not prepared to risk the monster this time.

Deep Impact won the JC after his Arc run so it can be done and Orfevre's trainer Yasutoshi Ikee is the son of Deep Impact's trainer so he will know how to get the preparation right! In many ways I hope the monster wins, I won't be disappointed!!!

I've backed Rulership EW at 9-1 and he is my main bet, that price was too big as I would have had him a lot shorter than that. If there is any cut in the ground it will be a major plus for this fella and I think he is the one who could get close to Orfevre. His run in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) was a nice prep for the JC and his trainer is expecting a big run.

Jakkalberry is more of a throw away EW bet at 33-1, the track and stiff finish will suit him down to the ground and if the pace is fast and true I can see him running well. More than likely not good enough but I'm prepared to take a chance since he ran so well in the Melbourne Cup.

Good luck with your bets, it should be a great race.

I forgot to say Sadamu Patek who finished 8th in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) won the G1 MIle Championship race at Kyoto last week boosting the Sho form! The first three in that race, Eishin Flash, Fenomeno and my pick Rulership.

Going off track here but as we are talking Japanese racing I thought I would mention the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup G1 (1m 3f) race a couple of weeks ago at Kyoto. Pixie Princess really caught my eye, she came from an absolute mile back and finished like a very good filly. She should have won (3rd), Mirco Demuro cost her the race thinking he was on Pegasus. Pixie could be Dubai bound next year because she is owned by Sheikh Mohammed and I get the feeling the Princess will be a big player at the Carnival if she turns up!!!

interesting race as always very competitive....ground would be fast enough for the french filly and you would have to question ofevre a tad for throwing the arc away.. a wide draw here is not ideal either...i quite like the 3 year old fenomeno ew here who looks a real improver...a nice prep over a mile and 1/4 last time should put him spot on...he was mugged in his prep run behind eishin flash who got a lovely run up the rail and fenomeno had no time to respond(a nice prep)...a mile and a half should be much more his liking and from a plum draw i like him...any thoughts?

No bet for me as Betfair don't have a market.
My guess.  If betting Fenomeno at about 10/1.
1 Orfevre
2 Fenomeno
3 Eishin Flash 
4 Tosen Jordan
5 Rulership

2012 Japan Cup (G1) - comments from Japanese runners' connections
Info taken from japanracing.jp

Beat Black(5yo, horse)

Hitoshi Nakamura (trainer)
"In his last race, he got blocked in just when we needed to make a move. He got pushed back to about sixth position and that hurt in the end. He was carrying more than the winner and I think if he’d been able to get out into about third position he could have made second place. He was carrying 59 kg and for the kind of trip it was, I’d say he really gave it his all and showed us good ability. He was also well-toned and in good condition last time out and he’s still that way. His movement in fast work this week was actually not as good as last week, but that's because the ground was heavy. He's in good shape. It not being a handicap this time is a plus but the lineup is a strong one. We’ll try to move up early and see how well we can hold on."

Dark Shadow (5yo, horse)

Noriyuki Hori (trainer)
"He was already in good shape last week so this week I just concentrated on keeping his wind up good. I instructed Demuro to just push him a bit and not let him lose concentration in the finish and I think all went well. He's had enough training. And Demuro has a nice handle on him. I kept him sharp so he could handle the extra distance because when it's longer than 2,000 meters the finish gets a bit dull. He is good on the Tokyo course so that will help."

Atsunori Hashimoto (assistant trainer)
"He was 8 kg heavier for the Sapporo Kinen than he’d been the race before and he was in good shape. But, maybe he was a bit too big and he didn’t quicken as well as he usually does. So, to sharpen him up, we kept him at the stables and worked him on the woodchip course. He was 518 kg on the 13th. The lineup is strong, maybe the best ever and I’m really looking forward to it. He handled the distance in the Kyoto Kinen and he likes the Tokyo course so I don’t think there will be any problems."

Mirco Demuro (jockey)
"Because of the short-term license, I couldn't ride Eishin Flash as I had in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and I was disappointed but getting a ride on Dark Shadow has made me really happy. I rode (Dark Shadow) in work for the first time and he looks good. I was instructed to just go lightly. We worked in tandem on the woodchip course and in the end I pushed him a bit and his responses were good. The members are strong, to name Orfevre for one, but I think my horse has early speed and we can get a position early on."

Eishin Flash (5yo, horse)

Hideaki Fujiwara (trainer)
"We hadn't gotten results up until his last run but all the work and efforts of everyone until then finally paid off. And of course the efforts of Eishin Flash, I think it was everyone's victory. We then aimed for this race. I don't know how he is feeling on the inside, but everything looks fine on the outside. Lemaire rode him for fast work last week and concentrated on forming a connection with him. This week he let him settle and then pushed him in the end. I think he looked the same as he did for the Tenno Sho (Autumn). He'll have no problems with the Tokyo 2,400 and he's more relaxed than he was for his last race. I've got my hopes up."

Nobuyuki Tashiro (assistant trainer)
"In the fall of his Derby year, then last year and then the first half of this year, he had all the chance to win but Lady Luck just wasn’t smiling on us. Not getting the run you want is just part of racing, but this time even with the outside draw he was able to get to the inside by the first bend. The whole way he maintained a great rhythm and was then able to accelerate sharply. I didn’t think we’d be able to move up like that on the rail, but luck was on our side this time. After that race, as always, we just walked him and from the next weekend we exercised him in the trotting ring and he recovered quickly. His fighting spirit is back and that was what gave us those good results. He’s still the same. Last year we were No. 15, so I hope this year we can get an inside draw."

Christophe Lemaire (jockey)
"He felt really strong last week and this week I had him settle and wait. He wasn't overly worked up or excited after the workout. This year’s Japan Cup has Orfevre and Solemia meeting and the eyes of the world will be on the race. I hope all the fans will come out to cheer us on."

Fenomeno (3yo, colt)

Yoshinori Saito (assistant trainer)
"The St. Lite Kinen was highly competitive and he had been in great shape so we were expecting a lot from him. He gave us a well-balanced run and he had ample power but was holding back just a touch. The winner stuck to the inside and I think his not being close to us were both factors in his winning. The results were unfortunate but it was his first race against older horses and a fair race and I think his being able to clinch second place was a good honest indicator of his ability. After that race, his breathing was back to normal immediately and he came out of it well all around so we were right back in training. Masayoshi Ebina rode him last week in fast work and (Fenomeno’s) responses were good. He’s in the same shape as he was for the Tenno Sho (Autumn). The lineup is even stronger for this race and top-level horses are here from overseas. But, he has good racing ability and can handle anything. The extra distance shouldn’t be a problem either. I’m looking forward to the race."

Gentildonna (3yo, filly)

Sei Ishizaka (trainer)
"After her last race, we gave her a mini rest at Northern Farm Shigaraki and then aimed her here. Her last race hadn’t taken too much out of her and she recovered well. She’s handled all the work well that we’ve given her. Over the summer she grew quite a bit. She had won the Oaks strongly but she got even better. This will be her first race with older horses but I think she is right up there with the best of them. She’ll have only 53 kg to carry and I’m not worried about the going, but ideally we’ll have a fast track. I’m looking forward to it."

Yasunari Iwata (jockey)
"Her last race was mainly a race of the last 2 furlongs and she actually finished a lot stronger than the margin would indicate. There wasn't any major damage from that race and we were able to work her hard enough. She is responding well and I think that with a weight of 53 kg, we have a big chance. For a 3-year-old filly to win the Japan Cup would be a great honor. I'm aiming for that and will do my best."

Jaguar Mail (8yo, horse)

Noriyuki Hori (trainer)
"He tried his best in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), I think. I can’t say he was blocked in front but maybe if he’d been behind a horse that had quickened better, like Eishin Flash, he may have been able to gain more ground. He came out of the race well and though he’s not as supple as he was in his best years, I think he has some very nice tone. It's the fall of his eighth year but he is full of vigor and in better shape than ever before. The year before last he was fourth and last year he was third. He’s given us better results each year. The other members are strong to be sure and I hope he’ll give us his best."

Meisho Kampaku (5yo, horse)
Jun Sato (assistant trainer)
"The pace suited him well in the Kyoto Daishoten and that was a big help. He was able to draw on everything he had and he was in good shape. I think it was a great race for him. There were traffic problems in the All Comers and he couldn’t run his race but still he was able to move up so it wasn’t a bad run. He has definitely shown steady improvement. There was no sign of any problems after his last race and he seems as usual. It’s a G1 so the competition is high. But more importantly is if he can get the kind of pace he likes. He's not good with a fast pace from the start, so I hope he'll be able to pick it up somewhere along the way."

Oken Bruce Lee (7yo, horse)

Hidetaka Otonashi (trainer)
"He had done better than I’d expected in the Kyoto Daishoten and so I’d been expecting more last time out. But the front runners stayed, which made it hard to come up from the rear. He tried to move up quickly going into the final turn but there was no catching the front runners. And with him carrying 58 kg there was no chance. His movement wasn't the best in this week's fast work, but the heavy track made his time a lot slower too. His condition seems to be about the same as then and when you consider his age you can’t really expect any great improvement. If we were invited to the Hong Kong Vase we were going to go there, but with this his last race and the lineup so strong, we may have to settle for a race like the last time. It’ll be interesting to see what he can do amid such competition."

Orfevre (4yo, colt)

Yasutoshi Ikee (trainer)
"In the very end of the Arc his bad habit came out. After he crossed the finish line, he accelerated so much that the rider couldn’t even shake hands with Peslier. To think that he still had so much left just makes it all the worse. After coming back to Japan and going through quarantine, we took him to Northern Farm Shigaraki. During the trip from France he’d lost 20 kg but he quickly regained that and from outer appearances looked back in shape. He came back to Ritto on Nov. 17. Last week Ikezoe rode him up the hill course and, like in his last race, he moved in to the rail when he got out in front. There was no other problem with his workout and I think his movement was pretty good. I’d say he was in almost too good of shape for the Arc so he wouldn’t have gotten back to that point in such a short time, but he has slowly put on muscle. The main thing is that he can be able to run balanced and straight. If he can do that, we should be able to get results. This week's fast work was the same and rain the night before had the ground soft. I think it was hard for him and that's why he hung left, then right. But his wind is good. In any case, I hope he can run a race fitting for a horse that represents Japan."

Kenichi Ikezoe (jockey)
"His breathing was better this week than it was last week. And he wants to run. I can only compare him to his run in the Takarazuka Kinen and he had room for improvement then and is better now than then. But today, when he was alone he wavered some but that's the way he always is, so I'm not worried."

Rose Kingdom (5yo, horse)

Kojiro Hashiguchi (trainer)
"In the early stages of his last race he was a bit keen but it wasn’t enough to cause problems. He finished sixth but was only 0.2 seconds off the winner. I don’t think it was that bad a race. We gave him a short rest at Northern Farm Shigaraki and then brought him back and gave him the usual work. This year the rotation is not as tough as last year and he’s maintained good condition right along. No longer having one race a month has made a difference. He tends to hang to the right, so the left-handed track is good. The main thing will be being able to stay balanced but if it comes down to a final spurt at the end, he won’t embarrass us."

Yutaka Take (jockey)
"He felt good in work this week. He gets keen in a race but this morning he was quiet."

Rulership (5yo, horse)

Katsuhiko Sumii (trainer)
"His last race was the first race in a while and even though he was slow out of the gate, he made up ground in the end. Because he ran well he was nice and lean after that race and he recovered well. His tone is very nice now too. Last week, fast work went well and this week I just made sure not to overwork him. He used to get a bit too keen, but recently he's not doing that. We won't have a problem with 2,400 meters. He's in good shape and really has a sheen on him. He's in his best shape yet and I think he will be extremely competitive."

Ryohei Yamada (assistant trainer)
"In the Tenno Sho (Autumn) he leapt up out of the gate and wasn’t able to make a good dash. We had schooled him in the gate on the Friday before the race and he’d been quiet then, so it was unfortunate on race day that he wasn’t the same. The winning horse had a great run on the inside, while we had to run on the outside. You do have to have some luck. We’ve been working him on the hill and on the flat and gave him some fast work on the 14th. His overall time was slow but we pushed him in the final furlong and, with something still in the tank, he gave us a fine run. The next day he was at 518 kg. He’s the kind of horse that gets himself ready and he’s been maintaining a high level of condition. Now, even if we push him early on in the race he can still maintain a good rhythm. We think that 2,400 meters is within his ability and we’ve been giving him gate practice twice a week. I think he can start well this time and I have a lot of expectations."

Tosen Jordan (6yo, horse)

Yasutoshi Ikee (trainer)
"This summer we had to sit out the Sapporo Kinen because of hoof problems and after that we gave him more time off to take care of that. And that turned out to be quite different from last year’s run in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). He hadn’t really gotten back up to speed in his fast work last week, but that has gotten a lot better this week. He’s been given the training he needs though and I think he’ll be able to do better this time. But mentally, he doesn’t seem to be quite on his game yet. Compared to his best times, he does seem a bit lacking. The extra distance will be welcome. I didn’t get the improvement I wanted from his last race and we may need this one more race for him to really improve. A bit of spring to the track would be best for him."

Good call on Gentildonna folks- She gave Orfevre a sideways knock at about the furlong pole but she was flying- Best horse (Filly) won the race in my opinion and the stewards did right to keep it as is. Jockey's stylings leave a little to be desired - Orfevre sluiced into the lead and this time kept straight just got outfinished by the gal - maybe he likes to see the fillies backsides (Solemia in the Arc and now Gentildonna!)

Two Triple Crown winners going head to head, tough call this one! It will be harsh on Gentildonna if she loses the race but Iwata is comical in the saddle and his style of riding probably caused most of the problems. Orfevre literally bumped into another filly who wouldn't give up, he ran a belter again and knowing the Japanese stewards will more than likely get placed first!!!

Rulership blew the start again and cost him big time just like in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). He finished like a train from the back after being switched off the rail costing him even more ground. Very unlucky in defeat but a great run for 3rd.

The UK runners finished where they should of, not up to this class and I should know better!!!

I didn't realise Gentildonna won, started watching the KP show. Well done Gooner and all Gentildonna backers. Orfevre unlucky again but would have been harsh on Gentildonna losing the race!

We should be starting an Arc 2013 thread soon. It could get exciting.

Nice win...very very lucky the stewards didn't award it to Orfevre. very close thing.

Gentildonna's win today shows that the Japanese fillies look a very good bunch! It's always difficult to weigh up the Japanese 3 year old form but her performance today has made me even more confident Pixie Princess (4 year old) could be a major force as well. Her form with Verxina (2nd four times to Gentildonna) in the Queen Elizabeth II Commemorative Cup G1 (11f) at Kyoto puts Pixie right up there with the best IMO. Pixie Princess last performance really blew me away with the amount of ground she made up from a horrible position (last and wide). I know I've posted about Pixie on this thread already but I think she could be something special and I don't think we have seen the best of her yet!

Her trainer Kenji Nonaka made these comments before her last race:
"She's only had a week in between starts so she wasn't worked very hard. But her movement was good, and she's quickly putting back on the weight because her appetite has been solid. The jockey (Mirco Demuro) has her figured out which is very reassuring. Her best race is still further down the road but I'm looking forward to it. There are some strong horses in the field but we'll just have to see how she stands against them."

Gentildonna! The quality of Japanese horses should not be underestimated now and even more so in the future. They are breeding some brilliant racehorses and doing it the right way. I love the fact that their big races are so competitive and when they find a champion among them they really are world beaters. She interests me a lot for next seasons Arc. It's only a matter of time before they win it.

An important consideration MM, is that the top races there are nearly always run on very fast, even firm ground. I've looked at the times recorded by Deep Impact and Orfevre over their careers and fast ground was key. Even when they post SOFT ground descriptions, the times suggest that it would be described as our GOOD ground at worst. Sunday's race was a very fast time too. Orfevre showed in the Arc that he handles soft but he would probably have won on good or faster ground.

Interesting that the best performances by Japanese horses in the Arc have been on very soft ground which they rarely get at home . El Condor Pasa , Nakayama Festa and Orfevre are all cases in point