Horse Antepost
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A great race to watch and and even better from a betting front there is almost always and overhyped ‘superstar’ that make the market for everybody else.
Now don’t get me wrong this race has been won by some cracking horse in the last 10 years: Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, Ryan Air winner’s Our Vic & Fondmort, Exotic Dancer & Celestial Gold. Yet Only two of these started Fav.
More recently the race has been won by some decent sorts but bar Imperial Commander they haven’t shown to be anything special.
This years ’superstar’ and market maker is the David Pipe trained Grand Crus, there’s not much we don’t know about the horse so I wont bore you like most do with a run down of his career but what I will say is ‘I’m not convinced’.
Yes he was the 2nd best staying hurdler a couple of season back but he wouldn’t be the first horse to do that and no replicate it over fences (Punchestown, Time For Rupert).
Last season he won first time out beating Champion Court with ease, some may say that form is good but Champion Court improved as the season went on and I don’t rate this run much.
His next race was a bit of a non event, he then won the Feltham at Kempton. That’s great form with Silviniaco Conti and RSA winner Bobs Worth in behind surely? Not in my book.
Bobs Worth ran no sort of race and is a completely different horse at Cheltenham, Silviniaco also looked of the pace.
At Cheltenham he cruised into contention and looked to have a good chance before getting down and battling with the front two, folding tamely this may not be his true running but it doesn’t give me much confidence that he is ready for one of the toughest Handicaps of the season.
There will be many better 5/2 shots this season and anybody taking this price in the most competitive renewal of the race I can remember looks in trouble.
Anyway that’s why I don’t fancy the Fav now why I do Fancy the 33/1 (50/60ish on Betfair) Aerial.
Arriving from France he made his UK debut in Feb 2011 at Wincanton, looking back he was a shoe in winning of an Official Rating of 126.
Next time out he ran 2nd after a blunder at the first, excusses were made about his breathing and he subsiquentaly received an operation before the start of the next season.
Last season he started of with a good 4th in this race make a few mistakes he finished well held but showed a good level of potential. Next time out he slammed Giorgio Quercus (won nto) by 10L on Soft at Ascot.
4th back over C&D next time out he again travelled like a class horse but when push came to shove he couldn’t put up a stong challenge and faded. That run might not have been to bad as he was coming up against the future Gold Cup 2nd of 145.
He then scored his 2nd win this time on Good Ground at Newbury, staying on strongly he looked in need of further to be seen at his best but that would be a positive for me with the normal frantic pace in the Paddy Power.
His last race in my eyes was the most impressive, travelling well he made a mistake 4 out before being outstayed by the Racing Plus 2nd Hectors Choice. Yet again he showed he handles Cheltenham and with another summer on his back I feel he can show further improvement this season.
Considering he went up11lbs last season you would hardly view him as well handicapped but I truly believe that he has bundles of talent and with some rain expected tonight the trip, track and ground should be perfect.
This is without doubt an ultra competitive race but I could pick hole in most of thse and At 33/1+ I think Aerial is rock sold and a massive e/w selection.
I hope to be proved right tomorrow.
Stay Lucky
Abbott
Now don’t get me wrong this race has been won by some cracking horse in the last 10 years: Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, Ryan Air winner’s Our Vic & Fondmort, Exotic Dancer & Celestial Gold. Yet Only two of these started Fav.
More recently the race has been won by some decent sorts but bar Imperial Commander they haven’t shown to be anything special.
This years ’superstar’ and market maker is the David Pipe trained Grand Crus, there’s not much we don’t know about the horse so I wont bore you like most do with a run down of his career but what I will say is ‘I’m not convinced’.
Yes he was the 2nd best staying hurdler a couple of season back but he wouldn’t be the first horse to do that and no replicate it over fences (Punchestown, Time For Rupert).
Last season he won first time out beating Champion Court with ease, some may say that form is good but Champion Court improved as the season went on and I don’t rate this run much.
His next race was a bit of a non event, he then won the Feltham at Kempton. That’s great form with Silviniaco Conti and RSA winner Bobs Worth in behind surely? Not in my book.
Bobs Worth ran no sort of race and is a completely different horse at Cheltenham, Silviniaco also looked of the pace.
At Cheltenham he cruised into contention and looked to have a good chance before getting down and battling with the front two, folding tamely this may not be his true running but it doesn’t give me much confidence that he is ready for one of the toughest Handicaps of the season.
There will be many better 5/2 shots this season and anybody taking this price in the most competitive renewal of the race I can remember looks in trouble.
Anyway that’s why I don’t fancy the Fav now why I do Fancy the 33/1 (50/60ish on Betfair) Aerial.
Arriving from France he made his UK debut in Feb 2011 at Wincanton, looking back he was a shoe in winning of an Official Rating of 126.
Next time out he ran 2nd after a blunder at the first, excusses were made about his breathing and he subsiquentaly received an operation before the start of the next season.
Last season he started of with a good 4th in this race make a few mistakes he finished well held but showed a good level of potential. Next time out he slammed Giorgio Quercus (won nto) by 10L on Soft at Ascot.
4th back over C&D next time out he again travelled like a class horse but when push came to shove he couldn’t put up a stong challenge and faded. That run might not have been to bad as he was coming up against the future Gold Cup 2nd of 145.
He then scored his 2nd win this time on Good Ground at Newbury, staying on strongly he looked in need of further to be seen at his best but that would be a positive for me with the normal frantic pace in the Paddy Power.
His last race in my eyes was the most impressive, travelling well he made a mistake 4 out before being outstayed by the Racing Plus 2nd Hectors Choice. Yet again he showed he handles Cheltenham and with another summer on his back I feel he can show further improvement this season.
Considering he went up11lbs last season you would hardly view him as well handicapped but I truly believe that he has bundles of talent and with some rain expected tonight the trip, track and ground should be perfect.
This is without doubt an ultra competitive race but I could pick hole in most of thse and At 33/1+ I think Aerial is rock sold and a massive e/w selection.
I hope to be proved right tomorrow.
Stay Lucky
Abbott
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Great write up.
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Cheers Mr Eboue, been a while since I've stuck up on here.
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good man abbot
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Really good write-up and good luck with it. At 33s you can't complain even if it does turn out that he is not quite well handicapped enough.
There has been so much talked about Grands Crus so I'll not re-open another debate about him. I do think he's the real deal but completely understand why folk remain unconvinced at this stage. Much does hinge on the Feltham for sure. While I agree that Bobs Worth is hard to use to rate the performance, my interpretation is that Silviniaco looked off the pace because GC injected it and he couldn't cope. We'll all know a lot more tomorrow! I actually really fancy Divers off his mark and with Murphy up, but I suspect the rain will scupper his chance. He is a great example of a horse that can run completely differently on a better surface. |
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Cheers Plat, Tom you may be right but at his current price he is no sort of bet.
Just to add 2 things, Al Ferof was 50/50 to run a week ago if he hadn't run Ruby would have been on Aerial and Nicholl's would have been talking him up as an improve with course form. Also any rain tonight is a massive positive for my runner |
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the price is big because he has a stiff task off 155, needs to improve of course, but as a young horse they can always find a bit
certainly worse outsiders |
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fair write up abbott...very difficult to evaluate this horse for me...his end of season run was a good one and i so wish they hadn't ruined hectors choice mark but they did....he has a tough ask here off 155 and doesn't look well handicapped at all for me but he isn't without a chance of placing as last years race indicates off of a 11lb lower mark...
real heavy ground may sway me but still tough for this horse off his current mark...agree about your grands crus comments and he will have be every bit as good as everyone thinks he is to win this...but one thing is guaranteed the pipes would of trained him hard for this but the race hasn't cut up and is very competitive....i have walkon and have saved on quatitiveesing ew but it is going to be difficult to pick the candy up thats for sure but we can only be positive with the race just a day away and fully expect to collect(tongue in cheek) |
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gl abbott
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Interesting thoughts. GL abbott.
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Pissin at Chelt now fwiw
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Great write up. This years renewal looks very competitive, plenty of horses with chances on there current marks.I can see forpadytheplaterer running a huge race so will plump for a few quid e/w on him. This Triolo D'alenes of nickys looks interesting too but dont think itl be his day tomorrow but definatley one to keep an eye on this season imo.
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Great write up abbot I had similar thoughts about Aeriel yesterday you can never discount a supposed 2nd string from Nicholls. I don't think I will back him myself so good luck.
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Cheers guys, the ground should be perfect for my selection now.
Nicholl's comments are encourageing in today's Betfair column. Did well after finishing fourth in this race last year, but that means that he takes in this race off an 11lb higher mark this time around and it is not hard to see that there are more unexposed and better handicapped rivals in here. But he clearly is a very smart horse on his day, has blossomed in the last fortnight, and these are the races for him. |
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Cheers guys, the ground should be perfect for my selection now.
Nicholl's comments are encourageing in today's Betfair column. Did well after finishing fourth in this race last year, but that means that he takes in this race off an 11lb higher mark this time around and it is not hard to see that there are more unexposed and better handicapped rivals in here. But he clearly is a very smart horse on his day, has blossomed in the last fortnight, and these are the races for him. |
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that good i said it twice
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Why would you back Aerial and not Poquelin given Poqeulin is 8lb better off for finishing in front of him over CD?
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al ferof looks a better option to me, goodluck
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GoldCupWinner Aerial is on the way up Poquelin is on the way down. Also the ground is a plus for Aerial and a neg for Poquelin, pretty straightforward really.
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Why do you see the ground as a negative for Poquelin? CD form on ths ground is 2-1 and you can argue he was given far too much to do when he came 2nd. He hasn't even raced on soft ground since but has performed well on G/S.
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Should have just laid the FAV, decent run from Aerial ill be looking to get my money back on him later in the season
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hope you got cover bet in on time
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OK I'll accept the ground was a negative for Poquelin now :D Not at the races at all.
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poqueolin his best days are gone, still great horse, always new
stars coming through, usually ruby rides nicholls best chance in the race? |