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Smart Predator
11 Nov 12 12:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 93 | Blogger: Smart Predator's blog
A friend of mine has an entry in this race from a small yard and with Big Bucks in the race will put him way out of the h'cap. PN said the money is better at Haydock than at Newbury.

Could be a great day out if he doesn't run but if he does it'll ruin the chances of many to win a nice pot.

Don't do it PN
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Report willie the milk November 11, 2012 6:50 PM GMT
No chance of running at Haydock
Report willie the milk November 11, 2012 6:51 PM GMT
imho
Report Roger The Butler November 12, 2012 11:49 AM GMT
Absolutely will not happen. Just a publicity stunt before he goes the normal route anyway. Perhaps this will help explain how this entry has come about:

Paul Nicholls recently revealed on his Betfair column: “Big Buck's has been given an entry in the Betfair Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle
Report JOCI Club November 12, 2012 12:13 PM GMT
Aha Rog!
Report sintonian November 12, 2012 1:30 PM GMT
The clues are all there.
Report noflapleft November 13, 2012 6:52 PM GMT
More chance of Ryan Moore smiling
Report Roger The Butler November 16, 2012 12:46 PM GMT
Shocking news breaking today that after managing to get some column inches from his assertion in his Betfair column that Big Buck's could run in the Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle, Paul Nicholls isn't going to drag Big Buck's up north to give away 2 stone all round in a handicap, and it's the Long Walk after all as a starting point.

I hope he has made the right choice, not sure the Long Walk is an ideal starting point for a season you hope is going to culminate in the World Hurdle.
Report Roger The Butler November 16, 2012 12:47 PM GMT
Sorry, Long Distance Hurdle, not Long Walk.
Report Smart Predator November 16, 2012 5:00 PM GMT
Great news roll on next Saturday
Report harchibald November 20, 2012 7:23 PM GMT
Who do we like for this race chaps ?
Report ilikewavingatbuses November 20, 2012 7:31 PM GMT
sivola de sivola would be my guess.
Report roobuck November 20, 2012 8:46 PM GMT
I like Saphir River but the problem with the race is that the Pipe French import could be absolutely thrown in off 124
Report harchibald November 20, 2012 9:18 PM GMT
Fixed Brush Hurdle    Outright Ante Post, Sivola De Sivola, 10/1
Single £250.00 E/W (Pot. Ret. £3,625.00)
Report harchibald November 20, 2012 9:18 PM GMT
NAP
Report Reefer 2001 November 20, 2012 10:40 PM GMT
I can smell a big gamble on Sivola De Sivola.  The 10's with Billys is too good to miss.  Looks well handicapped.  Ground is the only issue.
Report ilikewavingatbuses November 20, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
gl harchi
Report stevo1 November 21, 2012 1:37 AM GMT
Sivola owes me from Festival last year when getting balloted out, well handicapped not sure if soft going will help, will wait till day.
Report harchibald November 21, 2012 8:03 AM GMT
Guys thanks, SdS WANTS it soft so Haydock on Saturday is going to be ideal.
Report roobuck November 21, 2012 9:32 AM GMT
Good luck also from me harchi though personally I though the posting of the bet was a little unnecessary - just saying you'd had a good e/w bet at 10s would have been enough
Report Workforce November 21, 2012 11:44 AM GMT
Going to have a bit on Barafundle. Win only as has the potential to completely bomb out. Been dropped to 133 after his absence. Finished runner-up to Grands Crus off 130 two years ago, before going on to win at Newbury. Not a huge fan of Sivola de Sivola, looked a bit uncooperative at Cheltenham last time.
Report harchibald November 21, 2012 2:16 PM GMT
Yes ok, apologies for posting the amount of the bet to all those who may have taken offence (none intended.

I see Paul Kealey has tipped up Barafundle. He makes no mention of SdS in the piece at all.

Generally I think Pipey's horses are a little overbet in this (see the drift now on Knight Pass, he won't like the ground) but I see Katkeau is now only 4/1 with Vickta.

He's unproven for me though and over bet - if it wasn't a Pipe horse and the trainer didn't have the record he has in this race I'd chalk him up at 12's.

For me it's a shortlist of these -

Sivola De Sivola (obvious chance on soft, target trained for this race, nice mark)
Saphir River (yard bang in form, trounced inferior oppo over fences, had this in mind for him, LR does well here)
Holywell (Jonjo, coming to the boil but young, but is this slog really what he wants, ground issues?)
Bear's Affair (nice mark given previous demonstration of ability)

SdS for me though.

Fingal Bay form over too short a trip saw him account for African Broadway well enough at Cheltenham off levels. That field had too much pace for him that day. Forget his last Cheltenham run of last season, trainer on record as saying he had a diagnosed salt deficiency that day.

I think the improvement will be there after his pipe opener at Cheltenham and with Tom George's evidently in fine fighting form I can't see him out of the first four home on the likely ground.
Report ilikewavingatbuses November 22, 2012 1:31 PM GMT
'I see Paul Kealey has tipped up Barafundle. He makes no mention of SdS in the piece at all. '


big positive imo.
Report liam the lips November 22, 2012 1:56 PM GMT
SdS was an early fancy here, dunno if he wants boglike tho, Holywell appeals more especially in Linehan gets the nod.
Report roobuck November 22, 2012 2:07 PM GMT
McLernon jocked up at the moment, interesting if that changes.

I have played Saphir River with a very small saver on Kakteau. Goes against the grain to back a horse without seeing it run but the stable clearly in form and won it the last two years after all so a pot they like
Report stevo1 November 22, 2012 3:57 PM GMT
Sivola has only won on good/soft so would be question mark against very soft, but well handicapped and may even improve for softer surface? Will wait for going on day.
Report Mystic Wind November 23, 2012 8:25 PM GMT
Carrying top weight on the likely heavy ground is going to be a big ask, but Trustan Times won a decent race in style lto and is entitled to improve. Should cope OK with the obstacles as he's mixed chasing and hurdling. Worth a punt at a big price imo.

0.5pts e/w Trustan Times @ 20/1
Report harchibald November 23, 2012 9:29 PM GMT
Looks like I've had a decent bet at 10's and the old Weasel Wise himself has put it up at 5's tonight - do I lay off ? Er ... Mmmmmmmmm maybe not.

Faint heart never won Fair Maiden and all that ...
Report Mystic Wind November 24, 2012 2:44 PM GMT
Christmas sorted!
Report turnip turns November 24, 2012 4:36 PM GMT
well done MysticCool you still got itMischief
Report Mystic Wind November 24, 2012 6:45 PM GMT
Cheers tt, not sure 'er indoors would agree!

Couldn't resist re-investing 1pt on Teaforthree @ 8/1 for the Welsh National. Just don't run in him the Hennessey! In Rebecca we trust.
Report Howdi November 24, 2012 6:46 PM GMT
well done
Report turnip turns November 24, 2012 6:51 PM GMT
Mystic Laugh Alfie Spinner wins that btwMischief
Report ilikewavingatbuses November 24, 2012 11:38 PM GMT
pipes wouldve gagged up imo.

wd winners.
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