Welsh national - Cannington Brook

Why? Was well beaten last year off a lower mark on ground that suited.

That was coz he was exhausted from his Haydock exploits a week earlier, the doubt being he was doubtful to get in. Still ran a v good race all things considered.

Yeah but he had only run about 2 weeks before iirc. If they target the race and protect his mark i think he's the ideal type. Whilst he was well beaten last year, he at least completed as a novice which says quite a lot imo.

The only caveat being, we need Tom on board rather than r Joe

Defo target liam ? and when are the entries out ?

Ah ok thank you.

I'd be happier if they kept the ride with Brendan jnr

If BP can claim 5, im wiv u roo - roo do the maff

Sorry mate already down to claiming 3

I prefer Tom then, seems to be alot cooler nowadays, San Telm as a good a ride as u'l see recently. Also alot stronger than BP at ze mo, cud prove vital if CB ever comes off the bridle

prefer his stable mate Hey Big Spender

Cannington Brook wouldn't stay 3m 6f in a taxi.

whens the decs out for this anyone know??

Apparently considering the Betfair Chase if looks like it may cut up - risk surely of completely blowing his handicap mark if they take that route

Has he sorted out his jumping Liam?

I thought he jumped fine at Ascot Sint, the key to him is Heavy ground, barely put a foot wrong on it. More of a concern is his potential appearance at Haydock on sat, but that could work in his favour i suppose.

See Joes have priced him up at 20s, decent price imo at this stage. Might hover over the button while he races Sat

As an aside they have priced up Giles Cross - outrageous. Not sure how long they have to close down for, but surely won't be taking part?

Alfie spinner backed @20,likes the course and the mud

I guess I'll have to take that back about Giles Cross - didn't realise the entries were out

Not a bad shout tt. If PFN runs Tidal Bay,( he won't though will he ? ) he'll be about the last one in the handicap proper as well.

My eyes keep getting drawn back to LBB, 14/1 is fair

Had my eye on him since he won at the track last season Teets.

138 though? Possibilities

Lie Forrit wud be a serious rival off 130 if this is the plan (runs this weekend i fink). Unless Cannington wins the Betfair, which is unlikely, i presume he'l stay on 145 for this ?

But what if he finishes in front of TGB which I think is entirely possible on very testing ground? Handicapper raised Wayward Prince £8 for finishing 11L 2nd to SC presumably because he beat Midnight Chase and TFR. Don't think SC will be at his best on very soft ground either, so finishing close to him and the handicapper will have to look at that as well.

Really do think in terms of Welsh National, they are taking a real gamble

Dunno if Phil Smith has the power to raise them in these early closing races Roo. Obv a mandatory penalty applies for any winners in the interim. Would appreciate any enlightenment ...

No weights released yet are there...just the entries?

I would have thought that when the weights are framed the official marks at that time will be used? To be fair I may be making an incorrect assumption here.

Yep, ur prob right roo - just the entries out innit.

Cannington could have a real chance on Saturday if this rain continues

Why ?
Is it a two and a half mile race now ?

Tbh, i'm ****g gobsmacked people are taking 20/1 about this horse. Sometimes the issue of ground can be overplayed.

For this or tomorrow sint?

tomorrow Roo.

As you know I have taken a small bet on him @25s. If LR is on his game, no contest. All the others on very soft ground I really can see him beating them whatever their rating

A little surprised on the strength of your feeling tbh

I have to agree with Sint. Top 3 in the betting all have form on soft ground. I can't see them all under performing.

I would lay TGB as well.

He's a handicapper Roo, in a Grade 1.

Of course one or two blunders with the ground the way it is can level the playing field but he should be 50's.

Only Imo.

If he wins I shall congratulate you, as per normal.

No you are probably right. Maybe he should be 50s and tbh he needs more as having now watched yesterday's Haydock racing, the ground didn't look too bad.

Obviously it's a speculative punt but one I'd prefer over a shortie, will always be that way.

So do I normally Roo.

Prepared to give Long Run a chance today at 7/4 as he overall form is stronger than the rest. I don't see why he cant still be on the upgrade.

good luck,

Good luck sint, see you've gone in again. On all known form he should win....but excuse me after that guff on C4 today I hope he doesn't

Didn't see it. Never watch programmes like that.

I think the Long Run race is a match between the front two in the market. My worry with Long Run is that he's not at his best FTO but it's quite hard to gauge how good SC is.

Livid with that yesterday tbh. The pace was incredibly slow and they made little use of LR's stamina. Can't see why he is Fav for Kempton he'll need it Soft again imo.

Cannington ran quite well I thought.

I'm afraid you have to factor the jockey into the price I'm afraid though again he was simply out jumped and that was important in the finish.

Cannington did run ok but now not sure he's the horse for the Welsh National. Definitely would want the connections to confirm it as the target and not run again before.

Pricewise makes his pick on Thursday so must assume the weights will be released on Wednesday

^^ I'm afraid

Peaked a few days early - know how he feels

lol know how you feel pal