Horse Antepost
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Some interesting entries this year.
http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2012-10/news_2012102901349.html
http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2012-10/news_2012102901349.html
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Replies: 64
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Love this meeting. Have a go at the fourfold on the G1s every year - never won much though!
Excelebration in the mile at anything over 6/4 would be nice, assuming it's a target. |
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Will be my 4th year, Happy Valley on the Weds night for the jockey challenge prior to this is a must too. Will be an interesting mile if they run Ambitious Dragon in it, he looked back to his best last Sunday.
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AD's trainer is running a bit scared of Cirres Des Aigles and may duck the Cup as a result . Not quite sure why as CDA is vulnerable over 10f with a crawl of a gallop as he showed last year. Hopefully the Aussie sprinter Sea Siren comes through the Patinack Classic ok later on today and makes the trip for the Sprint along with Singapore star Super Easy ( runs in the trial race at Sha Tin next week ).
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Not too sure Millard's running scared, I think they believe AD is just a better horse over the mile. I would tend to agree at HK level but not too sure against top class - he looked fantastic the other week and is down to run in the trial next week, I think he runs better fresh so not too sure why he needs the run next week when the main event it only a month away.
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Glorious Days is going to be an interesting runner on Sunday now he's tried in blinkers.
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Final noms announced last night at HV http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2012-11/news_2012112102010.html
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No Europeans in the Sprint is a shocker but they have been a standing joke in terms of their ''success'' rate for a long number of years . Never seen a stronger contingent from Europe in the Vase which they always win . Plenty of Japanese in the Mile and the Sprint with the Euros a bit light on quality in the Mile where the locals look strong
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Glorious Days looked very smart in the mile trial the other day, but was getting 5lbs from AD, think he won with something in hand though. Lucky Nine looks to have the sprint at his mercy, beat everything very well on Sunday and they had left something to work on. It was well known though that Little Bridge hasn't been working very well. Vase looks a very tricky race indeed.
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If you want to watch replays of the trials from last Sunday http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meeting/Results/English/Local/20121118/ST/7
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Sprint = Curren Chan, Little Bridge, Lucky 9
Mile - Ambitious Dragon Cup - Cirrus, Calif memory Vase - Foog, Sea Moon The Cup is a very interesting field. Suspect CDA will be around 6/4 with british bookies so there could be e/w value in some others. |
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At the prices published at the moment I would take Glorious Days at 4-1 for the mile. I can't see Lucky Nine getting beaten and at 7-2 is a massive price, can't see it being that price on the day. CDA priced up at 11-8.
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Xtension each way at 11's too for me in the mile. Wait until nearer the time for Vase and Cup.
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Totally with you regarding Lucky Nine HK, he is just so tough and consistent. The draw is the only worry for me!
Zaidan is one horse I will be keeping an eye on as well, I think he could be a bigger price with the UK bookies and will probably be my EW bet for the Cup if he runs. |
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MR D - I wouldn't be too worried about the draw, he won from 9 last week. Zaidan is a decent animal, not too sure he's completely up to this standard though. I'm not convinced about CDA either, he's had a couple of cracks at Sha Tin and hasn't run that well though the lack of pace last year wouldn't have suited him - still wouldn't take 11-8 against last years winner at 9-2 who looks as good as ever. The cup and vase are both day of race bets for me - though they all will be as we don't get AP with the HKJC!! I'm leaving AD out of the mile too as I think he's reached his peak now.
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Xtension is a great e/w price. Shame no bookie is going 1/4 odds.
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We've had rain for 2 days with more to come, the forecast was for more until Sunday but it looks like drying out now. Was going right up CDA's path but he will get good going now.
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I'm hope there ain't much rain coming HK, it will not suit my two horses I backed Antepost. I took the plunge on Zaidan for the Cup at 20-1 EW and my old mate Master Of Hounds, also at 20-1 EW for the Mile.
I took on board what you said HK regarding Zaidan and agree he probably isn't good enough to win but the fact he was only a head behind California Memory last time and the big price difference between the two swayed me. I just hope it doesn't rain too much, quicker the better. There are some good horses running in the Cup this year and it looks a tough one to predict. Cirrus is the real class act and super consistent performer but his record at Sha Tin is very off putting. Master of Hounds is a seasoned globe trotter now and I think Sha Tin will suit him a lot, especially if he gets an uncontested lead!!! His ability to ping from the gates quickly could be a big advantage and IMO getting to the front will be his best chance of getting a win or a place! He looked in good condition from the photographs I viewed on the HKJC website a couple of days ago and I'm just hoping for a good draw now. If he does he could have a cracking chance. The two other ones I like in the race are Packing Whiz and Grand Prix Boss but I can't make my mind up which one to go with yet. I'm going to wait for the draw before I make any other bets but I'm really looking forward to Sunday, it's always a great meeting. Keep us posted on the weather conditions HK.  |
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Some more rain today,not really heavy though. More rain forecast for tomorrow morning and then some on Friday but it will be dry on Sat and Sun so should still be good going. Good luck on Zaidan, he's one of my favs as I had him last year when he won a HKGP1 race at 15-1, he may have been a head behind but was getting 5lbs. They seem very happy with Cirrus and if he gets a better run will be nigh on impossible to beat but that's the IF and the Sha Tin factor and would you take 6-4 (come Sunday and drunk I probably will!!), I think the locals will smash into it though.
I really can't see past Lucky Nine in the sprint. I'll wait on the draw tomorrow for the mile before committing to Glorious Days, I think there's a lot more to come from him now the blinkers are on - I do agree with Packing Whizz though, he looks a cracking horse. The vase is nigh on impossible though!! Tomorrow night at Happy Valley is fun for the jockey challenge. On another note Pausanias - now called Helene Fun Star - is trying to break his HK duck in a class 3 over 1200m on Sunday, he's had 12 goes so far!!! |
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Fato - check this out before backing Xtension http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2012-12/news_2012120401608.html
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Cheers Accie, very interesting.
In previous years when Cathay was the sponsor, there was a specific website for these races (cxphkir.com or something). I cant find anything like that this year? Looking forward to the barrier draw now :) |
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Try this http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2012-longines-hkir/2012-lgir-index.aspx
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That's the stuff!
I'm quite liking the look of Packing Whiz - upwards trajectory so could find his peak here. Glorious Days also looks tempting with Ambitious Dragon seemingly regressing over the last 18m. I can certainly make a case for the Japanese sprinters, and Sea Siren doesnt loook like a mug. Really struggling with that one tbh. Sounds like Dunaden has travelled well so I'd fancy him to be in the mix. I'm not interested in the French challengers at the head of the market. Sea Moon deserves his current odds, and the other one that could be a spot of value is Dancing Rain. That means putting a line through her Ascot Run on the basis that she needed it... Might do some perms with 2 from each race and 3 from the sprint :) Just need to narrow it down Sprint - Sea Siren, Lord Kanaloa, Lucky Nine, Time after Time Mile - Glorious Days, Packing Whiz Cup - Cirrus, Calif memory Vase - Dunaden, Sea Moon, Dancing Rain |
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Weather is perfect now, no more rain forecast and should be sunshine all the way at the weekend - there will be no ground excuses! I can't argue with your selections there Fato though Carlton House is interesting me. Will know more once the draw is made a bit later today
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Little Bridge out of the sprint
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Lucky nine in 12......that's halved my bet!! Glorious Days in 3 has doubled that onen
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Lucky nine in 12......that's halved my bet!! Glorious Days in 3 has doubled that onen
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Lucky Nine has not been very lucky with the draw, that's a bit of a nightmare HK. Hopefully his price might drift now, if it does I will play! Prebble will have to use his magic out of the gates and hope the gaps appear!!!
I made a bit of a error with Zaidan HK, I didn't notice he was getting 5lbs off California Memory in his last race.  Alain de Royer-Dupre sounded bullish about Giofra in the Cup yesterday, she might be my back up bet. He has had some great success over the years at this meeting and she might be able to emulate one of my favourite mares Pride. She will love the drying ground as well. "She did well this morning on the turf course. She might be slightly underrated in the Cup but I warn you, she is an exceptional filly. Look at her form! The only blip is her 6th place in the Prix Jean Romanet last summer at Deauville, but the course was not good there and she stumbled going out of the stalls, and then injured herself. Last time, she finished third in the Prix de l'Opera (G1) on a ground she did not like at all. But don't get it wrong, it takes a very good horse to beat the Brits in their backyard like she did in the Falmouth Stakes in July. Giofra has travelled very well to Hong Kong and I am expecting a very good performance from her on Sunday. The horse I fear the most in the Cup is Saonois. I don't think that his age is a problem. When they are that good, age does not matter, and he should like the way races are run here." |
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Fownes is disappointed but says he's not had the horse in better shape - I'm dubious as last year he said that about all of his horses for this meeting!! I am disappointed as this was my banker so now it's back to the form guide!!! I may have to nail Glorious Days to the floor instead. Still can't decide on Vase or Cup, think I may wait until 5 mins before the off.
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Saonois does look a live threat if CDA does have a Sha Tin issue. He's a fair price too.
I'm a bit stumped on the Vase. Sea Moon travelled well to last season's BC and is fairly lightly raced. He beat Dunaden fair and square IMO, but Dunaden obv has C&D form. Can't help thinking that Dancing Rain is a big price. Am I mad? |
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Not mad at all Fato, good fillies/mares do run well here - my fav live performance of all time was snow fairy 2 years ago, that was amazing. Was just thinking we've mentioned a lot of horses and come Sunday won't have a winner between us all! This year I'm not changing my mind on the day like I did last year and missed backing CM and L9 after telling everyone in our party to back them both!! I will make my decision on selections on Saturday night. I may be with you on DR!
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This is a decent form guide http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20121209_starter_all.pdf
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CDA out of the cup
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Shame as it would've been nice to see whether or not it was the Sha Tin factor that was coming into play in previous years. On the punting side it makes the decision easier plus bumps up the returns on any 4folds :)
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Those who like conspiracy theories may point to 2 favs from overseas injured in the week before the cup race 2 years in succession - both with similar injuries. BTW - we've had rain this morning with some more to come over the day, bright sunshine and 20 degrees tomorrow. will post my final selections later once I've changed my mind many times!!!
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Sea Moon out too now
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WTF is going on......The Club's Veterinary Regulation Department has this morning (8 December) advised that an examination of AMBITIOUS DRAGON has found that horse to be moderately lame in the right hind leg.
AMBITIOUS DRAGON will again be examined tomorrow morning (9 December) at which time a decision will be made as to the horse's suitability to race in the LONGINES Hong Kong Mile. |
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Always do a cheeky ew acca and trebles on these, with the hope of waking up to a bulging betting account on Sunday morning. Managed to hit 3/4 last year! This year's...
Red Cadeaux Siyouma Lord Kanaola Giofra |
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Will back Giofra in the Cup on track if the price holds with the JC, currently 15/1, some of the French horses are silly prices at the moment - do like the longshot Military Attack with UK books though
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Doumen and Mosse rolling back the years...anyone remember Jim and Tonic? they know how to jet set a horsie and still win in hong kong. Siyouma will be interesting because Doumen had the option of either the Cup or the Mile and went for the Mile even though the Cup is slighlty below its usually level.
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