Horse Antepost
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25 Sep 12
15:34
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03 Feb 11
I was waiting for the prices to settle down and to see if there was a chance of getting a double figure for Cirrus des Aigles against Frankel but as yet that is not the case, then whilst looking a noticed that PASTORIOUS was 20-1 with the bookies and I tell you what thats a heck of an EW shot as the race is going to have little strength in depth with Frankel in it and with it being so close to the arc.
This horse has turned over a new leaf and as a fast improving three year old who knows how far it could go, the connections have already said that they are coming over and why not you should never be scared of one horse.
So at 20-1 this thing looks excellent value in a potential small field, I have not checked yet as to any bookies pricing up at a quarter but i guess it will be a fifth, even so 20-1 at a fifth will do for me.
This thing has won two of its last three, both group ones and one by 8L over 10f and furthermore in its last race it was only 1L behind Danedream in Germany over 12f, you just never know with a fast improving three year old and as I say connections are not running scared of Frankel.
Also in my opinion with this horse and Cirrus Daes Aigle in the race this is Frankels stiffest test to date as last time up SNA would not of given too much hope of 10f and Farr whilst being decent is no top notcher, whereas it appears that this German three year old is and we already know that Cirrus over 10f is probably the best out there Frankel aside.
Best wishes,
Manuel
This horse has turned over a new leaf and as a fast improving three year old who knows how far it could go, the connections have already said that they are coming over and why not you should never be scared of one horse.
So at 20-1 this thing looks excellent value in a potential small field, I have not checked yet as to any bookies pricing up at a quarter but i guess it will be a fifth, even so 20-1 at a fifth will do for me.
This thing has won two of its last three, both group ones and one by 8L over 10f and furthermore in its last race it was only 1L behind Danedream in Germany over 12f, you just never know with a fast improving three year old and as I say connections are not running scared of Frankel.
Also in my opinion with this horse and Cirrus Daes Aigle in the race this is Frankels stiffest test to date as last time up SNA would not of given too much hope of 10f and Farr whilst being decent is no top notcher, whereas it appears that this German three year old is and we already know that Cirrus over 10f is probably the best out there Frankel aside.
Best wishes,
Manuel
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I also forgot that some of the potential runners could also end up going in the QE2 making the field even smaller, the likes of Farhh for instance
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oh and excuse my spelling of farhh in the original post, in a rush
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i backed this fella for the arc at big prices for peanuts, as he is not going for that i will have a go each way on the champion ,cheers and good luck manuel
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44s on here but no place market
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I think this is NOT gonna be worthwhile as Frankel can't lose, and the value is usually ransacked on the place market with long odds-on favourites.
It's likely to cut up if Frankel goes, but there is a chance that we could have some numbers as the prize money for second place is attractive, and if there's deep ground then some trainers could see Frankel as vulnerable over this C&D. Sorry Manuel, I have to disagree as at the short place price Pastorius is likely to be, running for the other two places (if 8 make the gig) doesn't appeal - furthermore, a 20/1 shot E/W at a fifth (with the bookies) returns as a 6/4 shot if placed, and that doesn't sound too good as an ante-post proposition before we know what might turn up. It's difficult to know exactly what the connections of the field are thinking at the moment, so we're in 'no-man's land' as to what's gonna show, but as you stated, his trainer seems keen to come over and forego the Arc. If we have a half-decent field (numerically) there are many others who are likely (on official ratings) to be within striking distance (at least) of the German raider, so I wouldn't mind being a layer, even though I do like the horse! Out of interest...what price do you figure you'd get on here (place only) if there was a market available? It's hard to say, but if there were prices right now, I think CDA is an odds-on shot, and Pastorius wouldn't be much above evens, as they, along with Frankel, are the only runners (as far as I'm aware) that are supposed definites for Ascot. Hopefully a few will emerge from the woodwork and make it a real test. |
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Mr Gazer you know my opinion on how good frankel is and whilst its fair for people to ridicule the idea of taking him on, this time for the first time i intend to do so with the german horse and also cirrus.
I am willing to pay to find out this time unlike in any other of his races in his career, it may seem madness to everyone but i just have an itch i want to scratch. In cirrus des aigle he faces the best horse has has faced in my opinion, this horse i the best 1m2f horse out there and the form of last years win will mean frankel may have a harder time than normal, it could be folly but unlike any other time i am intending to pay to find out. As for the german horse its a bit of the david junior syndrome and you know how hard that got to me, for others who dont, i swore that david junior was not a group one horse after he got beat in a group three at haydock and he then came out and won the champion stakes making me look very silly, so any fast improving three year old gets my respect let alone one that cann get within a length of danedream and win another group one by 10L. I dont think there will be a lot of runners with the proximity of the arc and also the qe2 on the same day so therfore the 20-1 now with first three as an option is something i am looking at as on the day it could be first two, i may wait and see if theres some 25-1 thrown around, i undersand the 6-4 that you mentioned but then sometimes 6-4 is a good bet. As for what price in the place market i am sure betfair wont have a place market until the day of the race market and even then it would depend on the amount of runners and the bookies will remove the place betting once they get wind of the likely number of runners, so i am trying to get 25-1 now first three on the basis there wont be a first three on the day but a first two. If i am wrong then so be it, I am for once looking forward to watching a frankel race |
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Manuel - if your tactic is in anticipating a 4 or 5 horse field, and you're getting THREE places ante-post, then I can see your thinking that 6/4 may be a gift on the day, as he looks a sure-fire runner, even though he's dipped in the Arc betting again - last matched at 85 having been that big recently, he'd even reached the 1000 ceiling!
 As I said...if there's really testing ground then many trainers will want to have a crack at Frankel thinking he could be vulnerable, and that could mean a large field - I haven't got a clue if we're looking at 4 runners or 17...it's ground dependent - what's your theory? Also, a few people on here have mentioned reservations Henry might have if the ground gets heavy, and there's the remote possibility that Frankel could switch to the QE II instead - that'd put a smile on your boat! I can't see it myself, but Cecil can be over cautious at times...Noble Mission was closely matched on two runs with an impressive St.Leger winner and he withdrew that after an inconclusive trial! As for this being Frankel's toughest assignment...I'm with you on that score, but it'll still be a canter - the only thing that beats Frankel is Frankel himself, but he's getting more bombproof with every run, and it's very difficult to see that happening - even on heavy ground. For the stick he gets, Tom Queally has done a fantastic job on Frankel, and nobody could have done better - last year's St.James' Palace will be vivid in his head right now, and he WON'T make a balls of it again! He already knows how he'll ride the colt (we don't) and he'll be mulling over the variables with Cecil, and formulating plans B/C/D/E depending on field-size, ground & pace - the opposition really isn't a concern to Henry in my opinion. |
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There will be no Nathaniel, St Nicholas Abbey, Snow Fairy, So You Think and there is every possibility that Farhh my go for the 1m race, as far as 1m2f horses what does that leave apart from the two i intend to back, its possible that trainers with bums such as wigmore hall or sagramore may throw them in hoping to get a place and then theres frnakels pacemaker.
This race will have little or no depth in my opinion and there is more chance of 7 running than 17 especially witht he arc and the qe2 to help detract from the field. I am looking forward to watching this one, perhaps the only frankel race i have been interested in since the fantastic place bet on the o brien horse in the queen anne, i know everything points to another canter but well im going to risk a few pennies against him for the first time in his career, just a hunch but then nothing more, i will back both of them in the win market and then back ew also, i do want 25-1 for the german horse though |
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Frankel drifty drifty
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Manuel - a word of warning...this Cologne business with Danedream could be affecting Pastorius too, and as he's got a far lower profile than the filly, we're likely not to hear about it if he is tangled up in that mess
I think one of the reports mentioned a three month quarantine, which would rule out those horses involved for every international event! |
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Pastorius is trained in Krefeld, which is 50 kilometers away from Cologne.
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Did what he had to in his prep race the other day and now for the champion, only thing is that some of the defectors from the arc may now line up which makes things more difficult but im already on at 70-1 so let the dice roll, now just need to get a good price for Cirrus if possible and see what they can do against the mighty one
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Confirmed as a sure starter by his trainer. Lanfranco Dettori will ride Pastorius.
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If i get this wrong then so be it, however unlike the arc where the going killed my long range shot St Nicholas Abbey it now looks like we may even get heavy ground on the round course and its at least going to be soft.
I predicted ages ago a small filed with little depth which is what we are going to get and yet some bookies are actually right now offering 33-1 at one quarter first two and 25-1 at one fifth first three, I managed to get 25-1 at a fifth and was pleased with that but that was ages ago and these prices are still available now its utter nonsense. How can he be four times the price of Nathaniel if you use Danedream as a line, maybe its because he is German, dont forget though that this rubbish German horse has been aimed at this for a long time knowing Frankel would be in the race, it has solid form and won a group one in soft ground three races ago by 10L or so. I managed to get a bet on Cirrus Des Aigles thankfully before Paris but not as high odds as i wanted but still 18,s was good value for me to win the race when i took it. The formbook says frankel will trot up and he may very well do so but these two horses as i stated ages ago are the best he has encountered and now he has to take them on over their trip on their ground, well seem to have got it right upto now, its now fingers crossed, only ever had one bet in frankels races and that was the certainty of excellebration to get placed,that came in so its fingers crossed for these two now. I have to say that for some weird reason i think that hype horse Carlton House might actually go close in the QE2 especially on a stiff track and with the possibility of bad ground and as for the GROUP TWO!!!! sprint well lets see how MEDICEAN MAN does on his track and on ground he can deal with, big price ew, at least this will answer the questions in terms of his overall ability as it looks like the stable have waited for this, lets just hope that its a fair race and the draw does not kill horses chances. Best wishes, Manuel |
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Good luck Manuel, especially with Medicean Man. If he is going to pop up in one of these sprints i think it will be at Ascot. If things fall right i think he can win a big one. Ive always felt it would be over 5f but he was staying on well in the Kings Stand and maybe 6 may suit better now. I will be backing him, and probably Sirius Prospect too.
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Sapphire, Side Glance & Marek are my 3 for Saturday
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Medicean Man is a better five furlong horse i think which is why i wanted them to try the abbaye, the course iwll suit which is a bonus and ew he has a decetn shot at a place
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60 on here to win,worth a small bet Manuel??
I reckon it is |
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Pastorius that is
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yes budd worth a shot at 60s imo
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yeh,i dont mind losing a fun bet to see a great champ win.......dont mind a 60's winner either!!!
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think theres a big chance of frankel being pulled out at the last minuet ,had a lot of constant rain in the south !
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All these TV pundits seem to be totally overlooking the chances of Pastorius in relation to Cirrus Des Aigles & Nathaniel - we all know if Frankel performs, he wins, but if (for any reason) he's under par, then Pastorius doesn't have much to find on the pair directly ahead of him in the betting...he's been trained for this and has his optimal conditions - it's as if his prospects are disrespected!
He's definitely being underestimated and Frankel aside, he has a realistic chance of beating the other pair, whose preparations have been far from ideal this season...CDA had some sort of abscess not so long ago (requiring medication) & Nathaniel's very recent blood troubles don't enhance their chances. I really want to see Frankel hose up by 10 lengths with the other trio virtually 'running to form' and there being only a couple of lengths between them at the line...as long as Pastorius makes the first THREE, ante-post place backers (I just couldn't resist a pony at a massive 5.38 ave after 2.54 had been laid) & Manuel will be content with that result...I'd HATE to see him win! C'MON FRANKEL!  |
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I got done because Nathanial was pulled out of the arc and ran here otherwise money in the bank, i said i had an itch i wanted to scratch and that was over frankel over 1m2f, he was simply amazing over 1m but had ony run once over 1m2f and beaten horses that are not the best over that trip and I wanted to see him do that to the top notches over 1m2f and that itch has now been scratched, didnt mind paying to find out especially with the value on offer with other horses and he would of trounced them on better ground, so 1m or 1m2f simpy the best.
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