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dtamutants
12 Sep 12 15:52
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Date Joined: 15 Jan 08
| Topic/replies: 148 | Blogger: dtamutants's blog
1    SHARETA (IRE) F.PS. 4 A.    58    ***         S.A. AGA KHAN    A.DE ROYER DUPRE    1.526.209
2    SARAH LYNX IRE F.PS. 5 A.    58    ***         MME ROBERT G. EHRNROOTH    J. HAMMOND (S)    782.652
3    LA POMME D'AMOUR GB F.PS. 4 A.    58    ***         GUY REED    A. FABRE    139.800
4    GALIKOVA F.PS. 4 A.    58    ***         . WERTHEIMER & FRERE    F. HEAD (S)    753.595
5    SOLEMIA (IRE) F.PS. 4 A.    58    ***         . WERTHEIMER & FRERE    C. LAFFON-PARIAS    199.550
6    PIRIKA (IRE) F.PS. 4 A.    58    ***         TERUYA YOSHIDA    A. FABRE    55.750
7    ROMANTICA GB F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         KHALID ABDULLAH    A. FABRE    121.700
8    SAGAWARA (GB) F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         H.H. AGA KHAN    A.DE ROYER DUPRE    197.280
9    YELLOW AND GREEN GB F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         CHEIK ABDULLAH BIN KHALIFA AL T    N. CLEMENT    114.550
10    WAS IRE F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         . D.SMITH/MME J.MAGNIER/M.TABOR    AP. O'BRIEN    348.066
11    SALOMINA GER F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         . GESTUT BONA    P. SCHIERGEN    268.000
12    SEDICIOSA (IRE) F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         MAURICE LAGASSE    Y. BARBEROT    80.000
13    PRINCESS HIGHWAY USA F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         . MOYGLARE STUD FARM LTD    DK. WELD    193.367
14    GREAT HEAVENS GB F.PS. 3 A.    54,5    ***         LADY ROTHSCHILD    J. GOSDEN    312.977
15    SYDARRA F.PS. 3 a.    54,5    405         . WERTHEIMER & FRERE    F. HEAD (S)    32.100

This looks a ludicrously strong race if all of the above are confirmed, does anyone have any thoughts how we get to grips with it?

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Replies: 32
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Sep 12 16:32
A little bit.

If it is Soft ground then i'd rule out Princess Highway and Shareta.

Great Heavens MUST have it Soft to have any chance, but I dont rate her that much anyway.

Galikova was very impressive when winning this last year on very soft ground, so is to be respected if conditions suit.

But if the going is Good, i'd be with Princess Highway.

Was fluked an Oaks and is not that good imo.

Sagawara lightly raced. Headmaster will know more.

Basically, on Soft Galikova for me, on Good Princess Highway. Easy. LaughCool
By:
A_T
When: 12 Sep 12 16:48
Nor convinced any of these are all that good. Should be a competitive race though.
By:
roobuck
When: 12 Sep 12 16:50
Agree completely with sint re PH if good or faster.

Disagree completely re GH as that would be my pick if soft.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 12 Sep 12 18:49
Check this out...La Pomme d'Amour is a 4yo filly trained by Fabre and owned by GUY REED! Shocked

Anyone got an idea what the going is likely to be?

I must agree with the thoughts about Princess Highway as she looked really special at Ascot, and Weld was more than forthright (saying she'd HATE the deep ground) about her prospects before the Irish Oaks - she was quite possibly flattered by the winning margin over The Fugue & Shirocco Star as they were both reappearing after hard races at Epsom, but visually, she was very impressive - it should be remembered that Ascot was on good to soft.

Despite being much longer for the Arc than a few in this field, I think she could well start favourite for this race if there's decent ground, but forming a tissue on this race is very difficult as it's hard to get an angle on some of the French fillies - it's a storming race.

Don't laugh guys, but at what I'm surmising will be a very big price, Oaks winner WAS could be the forgotten horse in this race, as although she was slightly fortunate to win at Epsom, she shows a very game attitude, and sometimes these trials can be messy - she's likely to lead, and could possibly get an easy time of things up front...a definite squeak for me and I'll be on at what I'm anticipating will be a tasty price, and with a very likely I/R lay at much shorter - I think she's an easy free bet.

Great Heavens looked very short of pace at the Curragh and I wouldn't think a possible crawl over 12f would see the best of her...maybe she should have headed to Doncaster instead as she looks a sure-fire stayer - I'll be laying her (for a place too) even if the ground is soft, as it's hugely competitive.

I think the French fillies, however good, are relatively exposed in the top grade, and none have the promise of Princess Highway in my view.
There's one piece of outstanding American form from Sarah Lynx and some on here have made big noises about that mare, but her overall profile is far from impressive.

Running through the French form, I don't think there's a single filly that could readily be discounted, and all are in with a shot of at least the frame.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 12 Sep 12 20:32
On gd ground i would like the chances of Princess Highway on Sunday.
Took a small bit of the 95.0 for the Arc, just in case she wins well this wk/end.
On gd ground i think she is the best 3yo filly over 1m4f.
By:
Bisbee
When: 13 Sep 12 09:38
I see Salomina has been bought by Katsumi Yoshida, brother of Teruya (of Danedream fame)
By:
roobuck
When: 13 Sep 12 10:00
Clearly the best German middle distance 3yo filly but at this stage really hard to weigh up her form in a European context.

However Japanese clearly looking at long term breeding as well as racing so this is very interesting. She may well be a tempting enough price to have as a saver though books are gradually becoming wiser to German horses
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 13 Sep 12 14:43
Back to that Sarah Lynx...this was very impressive and quite possibly the best single piece of form amongst all these runners.
T didn't see this race last season, but after watching it on youtube, it's easy to see why some of the shrewdies on here had her earmarked as one to note, even opposing colts - she was the only filly in a strong renewal of the Canadian International, and she hammered them!

I'm a late convert, and I see some have availed themselves to the 1000 on here for the Arc...I wish I'd listened Sad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWyCSmKL2Tk

Anyone DARE to predict the betting for this cracking Vermeilles?
Will Princess Highway be favourite?
By:
RozelKid
When: 13 Sep 12 16:07
sarah lynx Wink
By:
roobuck
When: 13 Sep 12 16:17
Don't get the fuss about Sarah Lynx at all, must be missing something.

Yes she won the Canadian International well, but it was hardly a vintage race was it? Treasure Beach at the end of a long season was beaten 6L off the back of being beaten by 18L in the Arc.

Moreover she did very little before and has done nothing since
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Sep 12 09:07
What is the final field for the Moulin? No Excelebration..
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Sep 12 15:50
Great Heavens is Out. Blood is abnormal according to trainer and will now wait for the Mares race on Champions Day, no Arc bid it seems.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 15 Sep 12 16:32
would be surprised if Sarah Lynx was up to winning in this company,surely there are better horses in the race
By:
Millerracing67
When: 15 Sep 12 16:39
Does Princess Highway line-up?  Have not seen the final decs. cheers.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 15 Sep 12 16:41
Out now to 7/2 from an opening 11/4 fav on Racing Post site;

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=564179&r_date=2012-09-16#raceTabs=sc_
By:
bazzar
When: 15 Sep 12 19:22
Navel, did you ever sort out the France Galop site with headmaster?
By:
sintonian
When: 15 Sep 12 19:49
What is the ground?
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 15 Sep 12 21:29
Baz - The Gopher put them up for me, so many thanks to him.

The Headmaster's a more than helpful dude and maybe he'll let me into his little secret of how to find the dec's - the only way I've made progress, is in searching for a horse I suspect may well be in the field, and then finding out the rest - it is a truly appalling website, and maybe we should complain to the Racing Post & ATR websites about their lack of interest/coverage.
By:
Navel-Gazer
When: 15 Sep 12 22:37
I see the ground in France is good - soft, but that won't necessarily be against Princess Highway, even though she's by Street Cry.
It was officially good - soft at Royal Ascot and that was a great performance.

The bottomless ground at the Curragh was never gonna suit her, and Weld said BEFORE the race, but there's only one Irish Oaks and their hand was forced.
She's out to 9/2 from an opening 11/4, but that drift doesn't concern me too much.
By:
sintonian
When: 16 Sep 12 09:03
It was only an opening 11/4 from PP when no one else had priced it up.

I agree Good to Soft will be fine for her.

This is a no bet race for me but hope to see good performances from Galikova mostly and Princess Highway.

I still think Princess Highway needs supplementing for the Arc? So she must go close to winning today otherwise..
By:
RozelKid
When: 16 Sep 12 11:00
Gl all to everyone today at Longchamp.

After browsing through the markets today ive opted for the following as interest bets only.

Vermeille: Romantica £50 win 7/1, Sarah Lynx £25ew 33/1

Just interest bets  as im not particularly confident on the race being the main target for either of them.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 16 Sep 12 11:07
Stall 11 of 13 & g/s ground has put me off Welds filly PH.
Took the 9/2 about Galikova for a few ££, gd draw & she likes easy ground.
The step up to 1m4f will suit, after a gd run last time over 1m2f against Snow Fairy.
Galikova has always been very highly rated by F Head & has been brought along very steadly with this race & The Arc her main targets.
On softish ground, i rate her the 1 to beat.
By:
penzance
When: 16 Sep 12 11:53
hope Galikova runs well,on at nice prices
W&Pl markets on here.Head has had one target
for this horse all year,the Arc.He was adamant
she was wrong after her trial win last year and
is near her best again.Think she'll run well in
the big one in a few weeks,in a race which might
cut up a bit.
   GL ALL.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 16 Sep 12 12:16
Salomina sticks out like a sore thumb.

Unbeaten German Oaks winner bred on similar cross-lines to Danedream. The dam was highclass. 3rd in the German Oaks before a fine 4th in the German Derby behind Shirocco. Same conections as Danedream too with the Yoshidas buying into her (rp needs updating).

8/1 eachway is a solid price. My thinking is that they wanted to avoid a clash in the Arc so this race represents an easier more suitable assignment for her.

The worry would be that her style of race (slighly held up off the pace) from stall 2 would present a problems with slow pace / congestion but I'm hoping Starke will be more than aware of this a keep her in a decent spot so she can clear shot at taking the lead in the straight.
By:
RozelKid
When: 16 Sep 12 13:23
I cant stop thinking about this Sarah Lynx with how good she is .

I might be making a big mistake here but Ive been hammering it all morning at all silly prices , i dont care if she loses as i will get value and implied odds every time she runs.

I just cant ignore the hammering she gave 4 group 1 winners in Canada in the same style danedream did her rivals last year, it simply ties in with the best form around and i will be sick if i just have a small bet now,

I just cant get away from my opinion that she is the best horse in the race, if the ground is soft it will help her i think, its the first time she has raced on soft in the going description since the woodbine race
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Sep 12 13:30
Rozell please look at the form with JOSHUA TREE and treasure beach, WELL BEHIND DANEDREAM IN THEIR PREVIOUS RACES.
By:
RozelKid
When: 16 Sep 12 13:40
well thats what i mean Bazzar, whats your point?

its given those horses the same type of beating dandream did!

what are you saying?
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Sep 12 14:08
Danedream was 13 lengths clear of JOSHUA TREE and 18 lengths clear of TREASURE BEACH,
both horses within 5 lengths of SARAH LYNX.
By:
RozelKid
When: 16 Sep 12 14:39
Bazzar,

you are making a mistake of amateur proportions if making decisions on grading a horses ability in group races based on how many lengths a horse has won by on different races.

and then cross referencing the lengths they have won by , if thats what you are doing you are ignoring several factors,: ground, pace, and tactics to name a few.

Its never set in stone, whats important is the style that a horse has won against teh competition its faced.

eg Nathaniel got beat by treasure beach, and Nathanial gets beat a nose by danedream giving it weight!  now i know thats not important but thats exactly what you are saying to judge.

so its a big mistake to rate horses like you are doing, something experience has taught me.

Im not saying Sarah Lynx will win today or in the arc, all im saying is that she is in the top 1m4f horses in the world and on its best plot in a race its won its beaten the best by far, and thats how it should be rated!
By:
mightymoyes
When: 16 Sep 12 15:33
how did the race go?
By:
sageform
When: 16 Sep 12 16:10
Shareta always in the first 4, went for home on the last turn and won very easily. It would be very surprising if any of the others are placed in an Arc.
By:
bazzar
When: 16 Sep 12 16:12
Thanks sage.
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