Horse Antepost
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A very popular 6 furlong sprint handicap that will see a lot of the usual suspects turn up.
It now seems the favourite will not turn up and that Hawkeyethenoo will now head the market. Hasn't run well the last couple of years off lower marks so makes no appeal to me though he would undoubtedly be a very popular winner for some.
Another two at the head of the market, Duke of Firenze and Prodigality, are very progressive but highly unlikely to get in due to the popularity of the race ( there are two consolation races for those ballotted out )
To my mind this leaves it with a nice shape from an AP point of view. I have played Maarekat 20/1 at this stage as I believe he is very fairly treated on the balance of his form. His run in the Wokingham reads even better after Dandy Boy's run in the Group 1 at the weekend.
Whilst soft ground will certainly improve his prospects, and the draw will play a part, he will do for me at this stage.
Anyone else any thoughts?
It now seems the favourite will not turn up and that Hawkeyethenoo will now head the market. Hasn't run well the last couple of years off lower marks so makes no appeal to me though he would undoubtedly be a very popular winner for some.
Another two at the head of the market, Duke of Firenze and Prodigality, are very progressive but highly unlikely to get in due to the popularity of the race ( there are two consolation races for those ballotted out )
To my mind this leaves it with a nice shape from an AP point of view. I have played Maarekat 20/1 at this stage as I believe he is very fairly treated on the balance of his form. His run in the Wokingham reads even better after Dandy Boy's run in the Group 1 at the weekend.
Whilst soft ground will certainly improve his prospects, and the draw will play a part, he will do for me at this stage.
Anyone else any thoughts?
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Replies: 48
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Hi roo, with u on Maarek, form with DB and GLB make him feasible off 106, ran well in the silver last year when marooned in the middle of the track. His finishing surge at HQ was alot better than the winning distance would suggest and he has an envious record in these big field hcaps winning 4 out of 8 in fields of 20+. Prob get 14s+ afer decs so hanging fire at ze moment.
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Sounds like he's sticking to group races Roo, dunno if he'd get a penalty 4 Ayr - probably
 . I see he's off 109 now as well ! Gotta love Phil Smith  |
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So I see Liam. Not been about this weekend not seen any racing and didn't really look too heavily so gutted that I missed the fact Maarek was running.
Whilst the penalty would just about be possible it would have made things a lot harder. Possible they may leave him in at the 5 day stage in case it is a bog but highly unlikely so I'll just have look for another one |
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Really sweet on Ian Semples cheviot in this one. Semple seems to have found the key to this lad. I thought he was quite impressive last weekend at Haydock winning off top weight just outside track record. That form was franked in yesterdays portland with doc hay and face the problem 1st and 2nd. Both were behind Cheviot last weekend. Fast ground would be ideal but any rain shouldnt be a problem as he has run well in ireland on soft an impressive run behind eton riffle caught my eye. Hes top priced 20/1(16/1 with most after yesterdays portland) at the moment and I think hes worth a good each way bet. I got some 25/1.....
Good luck guys..... |
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Cheers for that PP, like u say, fink firm in the going description wud be preferred, no doubt he's looking well in now.
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Continue to be very impressed by Face the Problem and he looks likely to be even better over six.
Mopped up 50/55/60/65 last night - dont know why they were laying such prices! (if it seems too good to be true then it usually is.) Have to hope he sneaks in off 95! |
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If you cant dream aft, wot can u do ! Realistically, silver looks the probable, keep reading the cards tho ya never know !
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Just in case you didn't see this in the papers today PerthPunter...
Cheviot, a 20-1 shot trained near Strathaven by Ian Semple, arrives for his date with destiny, hot-foot from an impressive victory at Haydock last weekend. Semple said: “He’s fresh and well and he’s a live contender with a chance. “The Haydock run was meant to blow the cobwebs away yet he had everything stone cold by halfway. Robert Winston has been booked to ride and he was bought to win at Ayr.” |
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Isn't Cheviot strictly 1lb 'wrong'?
A horse in form no doubts and decent odds you got PP. Just a concern that the recent improved form has been at 5F on firm but as you say seems to handle cut OK so not without a chance. Plus added to that he can make his own pace so unless there is a noticeable ground bias, this takes away some concerns about the draw. Thinking about it may be a very useful one to be drawn close to. G/L |
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At this early stage I'm favouring a little dabble on Waffle to finally have his day in the limelight on the big stage.
The 20/1 available is a fair price given the nature of the race. He's comfortable on any ground and looks like he's been kept fresh for a crack at this, unlike last year. That's my early play and only ante post bet on the race. |
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I agree VK that Waffle is pretty consistent in this type of race and certainly deserves to get his head in front.
As a side note there don't need to be many more defections to allow horses off 95, such as Face the Problem, to get in. Not sure if they are listed in ballotting out order ( how is this worked out btw? )but if they are, then Jamesie would have a massive chance. This course is going to suit him a lot better than Goodwood so going to have small bit e/w in the hope he gets in and if he doesn't that they at least declare him |
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Pleased to see that connections have had a change of mind re Maarek and are looking for a 5lb claimer to put up....could someone suggest Brendan Powell to them please
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Trainer said he's probably going to use mark enright roobuck on the ruk site.
maarek appears to carry big weights well, is bang in form,will love the likely ground,has a touch of class and is a winner. Some of the others have been running well on a lot faster ground and could get stuck in the mud. estimated true price at this stage 10/1 taking into account possible draw biases and chance they may not run and backed at present best price 20/1. |
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Don't know much about him..any good? Assume part of the reason he's being chosen is because he's quite heavy so less dead weight?
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Agree with VK & Roo. I like Waffle tho only one win from 25 starts is a little bit of a worry re the win part of the bet. 20s is generous tho. Won't be that on Sat. More like 12s. I was down at Ayr today. They told me it will be no faster than g/s, which will be fine. Well weighted with Hawkeye, Maarek, Our Jonathan so nice draw needed. High?
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Maarek for me too. Won well on Saturday and has continued improving over the last year. Goes extremely well on heavy but showed in the Wokingham and again on Saturday he is capable of top class performances on good ground. Will run off 109 if 5lb claimer rides and weight range as stated likely to mean he is giving max of a stone to any rival (plus any jockey claims). His form with Gordon Lord Byron, Dandy Boy and My Girl Anna is rock solid and he is consistent and used to large field handicaps. 20/1 still available with Corals looks excellent value to me. Good luck to all.
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Don't know anything about Enright, though he has ridden maarek before. Maarek is a very willing animal who has won for a variety
of jockeys including joseph O'brein and is probably a good ride for an apprentice. Lochsong won the race 20 years ago under a 7lb claimer called Arrowsmith. Draw last year on soft ground silver cup 1st 2 home drawn 21,24 Gold Cup 12,16. |
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The concern for me now about Maarek is that whichever way you look at it he will be carrying 5lbs more than he needed to. As crusader says it is such a compressed handicap, 5lbs in this context is massive. I think this race, and ones like it, need to be a target as everything needs to be in your favour. Running on Saturday showed a desire to win a decent race ( and I have no problem with that ) but perhaps a lack of foresight to future engagements.
I am pleased he is running and having got him at 20s I will leave it that for now. If he gets drawn close to the likely pace I may well go in again accepting that I won't get the current price. |
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He won't be carrying 5lb more if they use a 5lb claimer ,he'll carry the same weight as if he hadn't run on Saturday. It then boils
down to what effect a 5 lb claimer will have on his chances over a decent pro jockey. In this horses case I think very little. If he was to run without the claimer on and carrying 10-0 I think it would be too much. It's probably not ideal running in a race a week before but he ran in the silver cup on soft ground last season and just over a week later won a race on heavy at the Curragh. Being a hold up horse in such a big field there's always going to be an element of luck involved, but if things go his way then hopefully he'll win. |
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tinkler I also hope he wins but if he hadn't run on sat and they put a claimer on he would be carrying 5lb less.
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Mark Enright is a very capable claimer. Has been riding in both flat and jumps this summer in Ireland. Has had 10 flat winners and a further 13 over jumps.
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maybe NRNB soon??
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after decs tomorrow. Cannot see many of the principals pulling out at this stage though a couple migh pull out post decs if the ground turns really soft......which I hope it does
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Didn't realise that so much rain was forecast so have added a bit on Maarek despite my concerns on his weight
Also played Sholaan as he is obviously still unexposed but yet is one of only a few that has shown he can go on deep ground. I appreciate that it will still be a very stiff task for a 3yo. |
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Rodrigo de Torres anyone ? Followed him closely since day one, although not the most consistent and appears to prefer firmer ground, he does go on soft. Love the dandy factor and that he's had 10 weeks to work with him, travels like a dream, back to six - DONE ! Is this number 7 for dandy
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I know there is the dandy factor to consider, but his run in last year's Silver Cup is fairly off putting.
Another option for a soft ground horse at bigger prices for me is Mirza who also can go well fresh. Waiting for the Silver Cup now, could actually be a far more interesting race |
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Missed by one!
Goldarnit! Don't they have reserves in case of late defectons? C'est la vie! |
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Aft I personally think that might be good news for you as I'm not at all sure about FTP on the ground - obviously would have been compensated by the prices you got
With Mirza added have one low,middle and high |
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Wise words as uusual.
The going was a big worry as he is uproven on it. Have had a little on Sholaan as conditions should suit him. |
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Boastful @ 36 and Shropshire @ 42 for me - just hope a high draw isn't a big disadvantage. Probably back something drawn lower on the day just in case.
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Really hard to be too dogmatic about the draw. History on soft ground I believe seems to indicate if anything a high draw is preferable. Looking at potential pace and those at the front of the market I wouldn't be too surprised if things developed up the middle.
The two I like for the Silver Cup are drawn next to each other and low - not sure what to do at all |
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Looks as wide open as ever this year. I always look forward to this one, was hoping to get up there this year but alas, it was not to be.
Two against the field for me. Sholaan looked like a good animal at York and could be open to improvement, and Colonel Mak is back off the same mark as when 4th last year and has put up some good performances this year. Soft ground shouldn't inconvenience either of them. I've done a full write up on www.layingthefield.com. (I'm not spamming, this is a website I've been tasked with setting up as part of a uni masters project. Feel free to take a look). GL all. |
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Took you at your word FBK and had a look, as you say really inoffensive, hope it stays this way.
G/L with your bets and you get the necessary 'hits' on the website |
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Thanks roobuck, as I say it's just a project, and will hopefully find a few winners along the way.
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Warming to Shropshire now - still to av a bet but i fink he'l be in the perm.
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Captain Ramius for me at a price,(draw slight concern )
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i have bet boastful and captain ramius both 33's and one on either side both will go on the ground
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The only sprint hcap of the year i have a bet in (The Ayr Gold Cup)
Used to go every year, until they started getting greedy with the members entry fee. Plus is gone a bit "sprint Cup crazy" with now 3 on the Sat  its just not my idea of a punting card now.Its been a lucky race for me over the years, for a bit of betting fun only tho (£10 ew) I will stick with last years winner (Our Jonathan 20s  ) about the same hcap mark & ground as last year, great chance of going in again if at his best (below par last couple of runs) They must fancy it tho, see its been backed into fav the last few days. |
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any opinions after todays 4 oclock race re draw ?
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