Horse Antepost
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Entries out. The flat must be nearly over 
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http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?Listowel-Kerry-National-Entries-2012-150
.http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?Listowel-Kerry-National-Entries-2012-150
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David Pipe is the sole British trainer with an entry in this month's Guinness Kerry National, to be run at Listowel on Wednesday, September 19th.
The 10-year-old Premier Dane has won all three of his starts since joining the Pipe yard earlier this year, most reently when hacking up in a handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot yesterday under A.P. McCoy. Formerly trained by Nicky Richards, Premier Dane has been alloted just 9st 10lb in the Kerry National and looks certain to get a place in the line-up if declared as he needs just three defectors from those above him to make the cut. His Irish rating of 129 is just 5lb above the mark he raced off when winning a Stratford Handicap Chase last month. The top weight is multiple Grade 1 scorer Follow The Plan and he is 6lb clear of the locally-trained Forpadydeplasterer. Other interesting entries include Cross Appeal (Noel Meade) and the Pat Hughes-trained Caduceus. Oddly, Willie Mullins has just one entry - Themoonandsixpence, who has not raced since finishing second in the 2010 Galway Plate. Paddy p: 8 Casey Top, Premier Dane, 10 Out Now, Caduceus, Cross Appeal, 12 Wellforth, Themoonandsixpence, Devil's Elbow, Daffern Seal, Alpine Eagle, Muirhead, 14 Carlito Brigante, 16 Nearest The Pin, Forpadydeplasterer, Fosters Cross, Shinrock Paddy, Questions Answered, Start Me Up, 20 Gala Dancer, Whodoyouythink, Campbonnais, Ponmeoath, King Ali, Shabra Charity, Jamsie Hall, Our Victoria, Follow The Plan, Deal Done, 25 Lenabane, Finger Onthe Pulse, 33 Healys Bar, Save My Blushes, Faltering Fullback |
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10-year-trends for Kerry National (http://tinyurl.com/8n4srfs) below:
Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 0-0-1 6yo: 2-1-13 7yo: 4-8-36 8yo: 3-6-46 9yo: 1-11-48 10yo+: 0-4-31 Horses aged 5 to 8: 9-15-96 Horses aged 9 or older: 1-15-79 The last 9 winners were all aged 6 to 8. No horse aged 10 or over has won this in last 10 years from 31 runners (17.3% of total runners). Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 7-10-59 Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 3-20-116 Horses carrying 10-10+ have won 6 of the last 8, and in the 2 other runnings since 2004 there was just one runner carrying 10-10+, both top weights carrying 11-10. Top Weight: F731F05656 (1-1-10) Official Ratings Horses rated 126 or more: 9-19-99 Horses rated 125 or less: 1-11-76 Horses officially rated 135 or higher have won the last 4 renewals and filled 10 of 16 places since 2008. Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners won or placed on last start 8 of 10 winners had gained 2 to 4 previous wins over fences 8 of 10 winners (last 8) had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases 9 of 10 winners (last 9) were second or third season chasers 10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days 9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 3F or further 7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 16K+ 9 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase 8 of 10 winners had won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival (1 exception had never run at Listowel before) 6 of 10 winners had their previous start over hurdles Other Races Highest placed finisher from previous year's Kerry National: 174P961651 (3-1-10) Highest placed finisher from Galway Plate: BU17130034 (2-3-10) McSweeney Arms Hotel Handicap Chase winner (Casey Top): F90F2 (0-1-5) Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase winner (Caduceus): UU (0-0-2) 4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Kerry National, finishing 2311 3 of 10 winners ran in the Galway Plate, finishing 665 2 of 10 winners ran in the Topham Chase, finishing 2F 2 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Munster National, finishing 34 6 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival, finishing 544044 Trainers Willie Mullins (2-2-14) has won the race twice in the last 7 years as has Eric McNamara (2-1-8) who trained Ponmeoath to win it in 2007 and 2008. Tony Martin (1-1-5) saddled the 1st and 3rd in 2009 and the 5th in 2010 while Shark Hanlon (1-0-1) trained Alfa Beat to win this for a second time last year. Dessie Hughes (0-2-4) & Charlie Swan (0-2-5) have both saddled 2 placed finishers since 2002. British–trained runners (0-1-11) have gained 0 wins and just 1 place from 11 runners in past 10 runnings. Jockeys Ruby Walsh (4-1-9) has a super record in this in past 10 years, riding 4 of the last 8 winners. Barry Geraghty (3-2-8) has gained 3 wins and 2 places from his 8 rides in this since 2002 while Paddy Flood (2-0-4) won the race twice on Ponmeoath in 07 & 08. Racing Style 8 of 10 winners (last 6) settled in mid-division or tracked leaders Price 8 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 10/1 Favourites (1-6-11) gained their first win in the race for over 10 years in 2009. Level stakes loss of 5.00 since 2002. Summary: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Aged 6 to 8 • Carrying 10-10 or more • Officially rated 135 or higher • Won or placed last time out (in last 50 days) • Ran over hurdles last time out • Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases • Second or third season chaser • Gained 2 to 4 previous chase wins • Won over 2M 3F+ • Won a chase worth 16K+ • Won or placed at a previous Listowel Festival • Finished in first 4 in a chase at 2012 Cheltenham Festival • First 5 in 2011 Kerry National and/or Munster National • Finished in first 6 in the 2012 Galway Plate • Trained by W Mullins, E McNamara or A J Martin • Ridden by Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty • Priced between 4/1 to 10/1 |
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1 4412-P Follow The Plan49 9 11-12 Oliver McKiernan50 159 150 170
2 33464- Forpadydeplasterer159 10 11-6 Thomas Cooper100 153 153 168 3 180-61 Muirhead7 9 10-9 Noel Meade67 142 150 176 4 35P-13 Carlito Brigante86 6 10-8 Gordon Elliott100 141 63 158 5 336-12 Casey Top49 9 10-7 Leonard Whitmore 140 153 159 6 0F7-36 Finger Onthe Pulse50 11 10-7 T J Taaffe100 140 151 163 7 0-012P Whodoyouthink49 7 10-7 Oliver McKiernan50 140 114 166 8 11122/ Themoonandsixpence784 9 10-3 W P Mullins46 136 — — 9 331P-4 Cross Appeal14F 6 10-2 Noel Meade67 135 148 164 10 5-12F5 Alpine Eagle49 8 10-1 Mrs John Harrington50 134 148 164 11 138411 Wellforth19 8 10-1 Paul John Gilligan67 134 123 162 12 S35P-4 Start Me Up30 8 10-0 C F Swan60 133 126 166 13 326-04 Nearest The Pin27 7 9-13 A J Martin 132 132 167 14 6-F821 Fosters Cross7 10 9-12 Thomas Mullins 131 81 175 15 P-9230 Campbonnais49 7 9-11 John Joseph Hanlon17 130 114 166 16 996-7 Deal Done49 8 9-11 D T Hughes43 130 143 149 17 3-111 Premier Dane17 10 9-10 David Pipe33 129 157 166 18 171-1 1 Caduceus134 8 9-9 P Hughes 128 137 170 19 152P62 2 Jamsie Hall29 9 9-9 Gordon Elliott100 128 144 163 20 46-533 Our Victoria73 7 9-9 Colin Bowe 128 135 172 21 26/9-9 4 Questions Answered19 7 9-5 E McNamara 124 — — 22 17U0-3 3 Quietly Fancied134 8 9-5 Oliver McKiernan50 124 136 164 23 576-04 5 Ponmeoath16 12 9-4 E McNamara 123 97 124 24 3-0312 7 King Ali19 10 9-2 Patrick G Kelly100 121 74 143 25 070-04 6 Save My Blushes19 6 9-2 Denis Gerard Hogan 121 114 155 26 731354 8 Shabra Charity7 7 9-0 Patrick O Brady64 119 147 154 27 057-08 9 Faltering Fullback19 9 8-12 E McNamara 117 140 155 |
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Cant believe there's only been 3 posts on this ! Questions Answered is well hcapped if returning to his 2010/11 form and has excellent form in Heavy which will be essential 2day, times were ridiculously slow there yday. Whether 10s is value anymore, i doubt. Start Me Up has been well flagged up on the NH fred and it's easy to see why, on his Limerick 3rd to Seabass, being nutmegged by Lion na Bearnai, his Navan win or the Kim Muir run he is quite feasible off 133 and also proven in somme like conditions. The other one i like is Our Victoria who is a consistent mare who has run very well in these conditions but not faced them very often, her run behind Cloughmile over 2m 4f on Heavy making her very interesting off 128.
3 singles and comby f/c's the play. |
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Im on Willies too big 14.5 and Our Victoria 23s, good luck all
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I'm a sheep with Start Me Up at 20s - that was a stand out price considering the company he kept last season. Well found now however
I also played Alpine Eagle small e/w as he is still unexposed and at Galway hinted that there may be a lttle more improvement at 3M - did come in but now drifted like a barge and that isn't the best sign for a JP animal. As well as QA and SMU, it looks like King Ali is expected to run very well. Good luck all |
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