Horse Antepost
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The Betfred Sprint Cup takes place at Haydock on Saturday 8th September. It’s a six-furlong group 1 open to horses aged 3 and above. The winners of 2 of the 4 group 1 sprints in Britain this season, Mayson and Ortensia, could lock horns in this along with interesting entries from the O’Brien yard such as Excelebration, Power & Starspangledbanner.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-4-35
4yo: 2-10-42
5yo: 3-2-31
6yo+: 1-4-34
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Prix Maurice de Gheest on previous start.
All 4 winners aged 5+ ran in the King’s Stand or Golden Jubilee earlier that year.
Breeding
9 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winners over 1M or shorter
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 7.8F to 9.7F
6 of 10 winners were by a sire that won a group 1 over 5F or 6F
3 of other 4 winners were by a sire that finished 1st or 2nd in the QEII
Gender
Fillies/mares (2-4-18) have done well in this group 1, gaining 2 wins and filling 20% of the places from just 12.7% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 116+ in last 3 runs
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 starts
9 of 10 winner had won a listed race or higher (exception was 2nd in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F (exception won Nunthorpe on previous start)
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Prix Maurice De Gheest: 5921321466 (2-3-10)
Nunthorpe winner (Ortensia): 2021 (1-2-4)
Hackwood Stakes winner (Soul): 10336 (1-2-5)
July Cup winner (Mayson): 6205261 (1-2-7)
Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 31040 (1-1-5)
Duke Of York Stakes winner (Tiddliwinks): 175000200 (1-1-9)
City Plate winner (Majestic Myles): 1 (1-0-1)
Greenlands Stakes winner (Tiddliwinks): 019 (1-0-3)
Ballyogan winner (Fire Lily): 2 (0-1-1)
City Of York Stakes winner (Gordon Lord Byron): 20 (0-1-2)
Wokingham winner (Dandy Boy): 53 (0-1-2)
Stewards' Cup winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 03 (0-1-2)
Hopeful Stakes winner (Hitchens): 357 (0-1-3)
Leisure Stakes winner (Markab): 8002 (0-1-4)
Abernant Stakes winner (Mayson): 64 (0-0-2)
Criterium De Maisons-Laffitte winner (Restiadargent): 70 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 518
3 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 649
3 of 10 winners ran in Prix Maurice De Gheest last time, finishing 227
2 of 10 winners ran in the Nunthorpe last time, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the King's Stand Stakes, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hackwood Stakes, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in July Cup, finishing 31
Trainers
Roger Charlton (1-3-7) trained 1st & 3rd in 2004 and also saddled a placed finisher in past 2 years.
Tim Easterby (1-1-5), Henry Candy (1-1-7) & David Simcock (1-0-1) have all trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Irish-trained horses (0-0-9) have not fared well in this, with all 9 of their representatives finishing unplaced (6 were trained by Aidan O’Brien).
Since 2000 the 5 French-trained runners have produced 2 winners and 1 second, both unplaced runners were priced bigger than 16/1.
Draw (excluding 2008 running at Doncaster)
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 2-7-45
Horses drawn in middle: 2-5-37
Horses drawn top 5 stalls: 5-6-45
5 of 9 winners at Haydock were drawn in top 5 stalls.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 9/1 and 25/1
No very strong trend on prices.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.25.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group 1 winner over 5F to 1M
· Sired with a stamina index of 7.8F to 9.7F
· Run at least twice in 2012
· Achieved an RPR of 116+ in last 3 starts
· Won a listed or group race
· Finished in first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 starts
· Won over 6F or 7F
· Finished in first 6 in or Golden Jubilee, Temple or Hackwood Stakes
· Finished in first 4 in Nunthorpe or Maurice Du Gheest last time
· Trained by Roger Charlton or in France
Trends courtesy of Racecaller
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-4-35
4yo: 2-10-42
5yo: 3-2-31
6yo+: 1-4-34
3 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Prix Maurice de Gheest on previous start.
All 4 winners aged 5+ ran in the King’s Stand or Golden Jubilee earlier that year.
Breeding
9 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winners over 1M or shorter
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 7.8F to 9.7F
6 of 10 winners were by a sire that won a group 1 over 5F or 6F
3 of other 4 winners were by a sire that finished 1st or 2nd in the QEII
Gender
Fillies/mares (2-4-18) have done well in this group 1, gaining 2 wins and filling 20% of the places from just 12.7% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season
8 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 116+ in last 3 runs
6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 starts
9 of 10 winner had won a listed race or higher (exception was 2nd in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F (exception won Nunthorpe on previous start)
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Prix Maurice De Gheest: 5921321466 (2-3-10)
Nunthorpe winner (Ortensia): 2021 (1-2-4)
Hackwood Stakes winner (Soul): 10336 (1-2-5)
July Cup winner (Mayson): 6205261 (1-2-7)
Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 31040 (1-1-5)
Duke Of York Stakes winner (Tiddliwinks): 175000200 (1-1-9)
City Plate winner (Majestic Myles): 1 (1-0-1)
Greenlands Stakes winner (Tiddliwinks): 019 (1-0-3)
Ballyogan winner (Fire Lily): 2 (0-1-1)
City Of York Stakes winner (Gordon Lord Byron): 20 (0-1-2)
Wokingham winner (Dandy Boy): 53 (0-1-2)
Stewards' Cup winner (Hawkeyethenoo): 03 (0-1-2)
Hopeful Stakes winner (Hitchens): 357 (0-1-3)
Leisure Stakes winner (Markab): 8002 (0-1-4)
Abernant Stakes winner (Mayson): 64 (0-0-2)
Criterium De Maisons-Laffitte winner (Restiadargent): 70 (0-0-2)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 518
3 of 10 winners ran in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 649
3 of 10 winners ran in Prix Maurice De Gheest last time, finishing 227
2 of 10 winners ran in the Nunthorpe last time, finishing 14
2 of 10 winners ran in the King's Stand Stakes, finishing 02
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hackwood Stakes, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in July Cup, finishing 31
Trainers
Roger Charlton (1-3-7) trained 1st & 3rd in 2004 and also saddled a placed finisher in past 2 years.
Tim Easterby (1-1-5), Henry Candy (1-1-7) & David Simcock (1-0-1) have all trained the winner in the past 10 years.
Irish-trained horses (0-0-9) have not fared well in this, with all 9 of their representatives finishing unplaced (6 were trained by Aidan O’Brien).
Since 2000 the 5 French-trained runners have produced 2 winners and 1 second, both unplaced runners were priced bigger than 16/1.
Draw (excluding 2008 running at Doncaster)
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 2-7-45
Horses drawn in middle: 2-5-37
Horses drawn top 5 stalls: 5-6-45
5 of 9 winners at Haydock were drawn in top 5 stalls.
Price
7 of 10 winners were priced between 9/1 and 25/1
No very strong trend on prices.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.25.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group 1 winner over 5F to 1M
· Sired with a stamina index of 7.8F to 9.7F
· Run at least twice in 2012
· Achieved an RPR of 116+ in last 3 starts
· Won a listed or group race
· Finished in first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 starts
· Won over 6F or 7F
· Finished in first 6 in or Golden Jubilee, Temple or Hackwood Stakes
· Finished in first 4 in Nunthorpe or Maurice Du Gheest last time
· Trained by Roger Charlton or in France
Trends courtesy of Racecaller
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Replies: 36
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Trends would point to Ortensia and Bated Breath, as does the form book.
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See BJG saved me, and has done a far better job than I would of!
Anyway agree that granted decent ground, BB and Ortensia are the obvious one and if GF over 6F at the prices I would prefer BB purely on price grounds but would back neither. I had thoughts about Mayson being underated and missed the 10s Korals were offering last night. I see he has been tipped up in the Weekender hence now only 6s. Would have played at 10s e/w esp as Joes are 1/4 odds but not interested at 8s unless I am more sure of the ground. I don't think he is as ground dependent as some might think though it will be a disadvantage to others. His July Cup win was indoubtedly helped by the heavy conditions but I also think he seemed to really enjoy bowling along in front. A couple of shrewdies like Strong Suit but not for me. He also wants decent ground and if it is he will run well but I cannot see him being quick enough. If it came up very soft I think Soul wouldn't be the worst e/w bet if aimed at it. At a price the other one I like is Slade Power. He also would appear to like decent ground but is totally unexposed and progressive. Unlike the other 3yo Pearl Secret he has been targetted at this race and the Nunthorpe seemed to show he wasn't quite ready for this grade - can't believe some books have him at 8s whilst SP is double the odds |
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Slade Power out. Missed a few days training due to back abcess.
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Slade Power has suffered a setback that will rule him out of the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock on Saturday week.
Edward Lynam's progressive three-year-old has missed several days work because of an abscess, which means he will not be ready to compete in the six-furlong Group One on Merseyside. The County Meath trainer will now aim Slade Power at the Qipco British Champions Sprint at Ascot on October 20. "He's had a slight setback. He's had an abscess on his shoulder and he's not going to make the Betfred," said Lynam. "He's going to go to Ascot for the Champions Day Sprint in October. "It's nothing serious, but he's missed work the last few days. He's fine, but he's just not going to be ready in time." Slade Power, who has registered two Listed successes among four wins and two seconds from six starts, was a top-priced 16-1 for Haydock's prestigious event. |
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Thanks for the heads up
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Fahey on Mayson
The Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock on Saturday week remains the target for Mayson and he worked well in midweek. It was always a case of going here or the Nunthorpe at York as they are relatively close together and we decided to wait for the six-furlong race. He'll be going there in grand form. |
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Probably worth noting that there set to run the race on the outer Haydock track for the first time since the infamous 2007 race when
the ground was listed as Good to firm yet rode on the soft side . Sakhees secret the short priced favourite floundered in the ground prompting his trainer Hughie Morrison to have a fit at he Clerk of course for overwatering. In 2009 when they raced on the inner track the ground was listed as good to soft yet the outer track was described as soft(heavy in places). Of this you'd say the inner track drains a lot better and produces a quicker surface but to complicate it even further the outer track hasn't been raced on that much this year and is thus less likely to be churned up. |
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An interesting point raised today. Buick may be in Ireland to ride Nathaniel?
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i shall be keeping an eye on the weather with bated breath
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will spittin mick be getting hoof it back for this
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Interesting point about Ortensia's jockey - the Irish one is at 5.45 so could he make it in time? He would be in the right part of the world to make the short hop across but would Johnny G allow it? Obviously she is still a very good mare but surely to her advantage to have a jockey who knows her to be able to ride
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They've changed the race time of the Haydock race to give Buick more time.
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Pearl Secret wont run. Not a surprise really.
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Racing Post @Racing_Post
Excelebration, Hoof It, Pearl Secret and Power among those taken out of Saturday's Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock at five-day stage. |
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1 28-126 Bated Breath15 5 9-3 Roger Charlton100 118 128 132
2 829403 Confessional7 5 9-3 Tim Easterby47 106 111 121 3 992190 Dandy Boy15 6 9-3 David Marnane43 — 121 128 4 607105 Elusivity7 4 9-3 Brian Meehan33 106 111 118 5 8-9400 Genki56 8 9-3 Roger Charlton100 109 100 118 6 203421 Gordon Lord Byron14 4 9-3 T Hogan50 — 121 127 7 03571 Hawkeyethenoo35 6 9-3 Jim Goldie43 103 111 124 8 124431 Hitchens14 7 9-3 David Barron75 112 114 128 9 06740- Kingsgate Native371 7 9-3 Robert Cowell 113 — — 10 323164 Majestic Myles21 4 9-3 Richard Fahey39 108 119 125 11 311051 Mayson56 4 9-3 Richard Fahey39 110 128 133 12 00-353 Society Rock56 5 9-3 James Fanshawe89 117 106 128 13 106416 Soul21 5 9-3 Saeed Bin Suroor43 Frankie Dettori 115 132 132 14 10-082 Strong Suit21 4 9-3 Richard Hannon55 Richard Hughes 123 127 137 15 290704 Es Que Love14 3 9-1 Mark Johnston60 107 111 123 16 13-300 Reply56 3 9-1 A P O´Brien46 — 111 125 17 19411 Ortensia15 7 9-0 Paul Messara — 125 135 18 2-5102 Wizz Kid34 4 9-0 Robert Collet — 118 127 |
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11/4 Ortensia
5/1 BB 10/1 SS 12/1 Whizz Kid 12/1 Hithcens 14/1 Society Rock 16/1 Hawkeye Of the outsiders, I think Hawkeyethenoo is the one who could frame. 6f on Good ground are his ideal conditions. |
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You really don't like Mayson do you?
 It does look like SS is going to get his ground and I see liam has gone in again. 5/1 about BB is beginning to look good. cannot see it being that price on the day given quick ground |
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I'd forgot about him tbh!
Wont win though  BB top priced 4/1 now .. |
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I agree its unlikely and SS at 10s may not be a bad bet e/w. I will wait re Mayson because if the ground is not too quick and he drift to double figures he'll be worth chancing.
If I was to choose an outsider I'd go for Dandy Boy. Everything happened too quickly for him in the Nunthorpe and he also will improve for better ground. That all being said if Buick rides, though the price doesn't appeal to me, Ortensia will be very hard to beat. May do her in a double with Snow Fairy |
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Given that the ground looks now like being on the quick side ,the race looks between Ortensia,bated breath and Strong Suit.
3 of Bated Breaths last 4 wins have come at Haydock and he clearly loves the place for some reason. Strong suit should get conditions to suit and must have a decent chance. The bottom line for me is that Ortensia out classes them all and is likely to improve for a step up to 6f and confirm herself as champion sprinter. Est true price 5/4 . |
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James Fanshawe is keeping an eye on the weather ahead of Society Rock's possible assignment in the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock on Saturday.
Society Rock: Haydock possible Related ContentLive horse racing resultsRacecards and formLatest non-runnersLatest video replays The talented sprinter was a close-up sixth in the race last year and has been running to a high standard in defeat this campaign. While he could not defend his 2011 win in the race now known as the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, he was a creditable fifth, finishing two lengths behind Black Caviar, despite enjoying no luck in running. The five-year-old also claimed third in a July Cup run on desperate ground last time. Profiles J R Fanshawe Society Rock (IRE) And while that was not ideal going, Fanshawe would not mind a drop of rain on Merseyside. "We are keeping an eye on the weather this week as he likes good ground," said Fanshawe. "There's nothing I can do about the weather, but he's got some good form at the track and the intention is to run on Saturday." Irish trainer Tom Hogan is looking forward to testing the water at the highest level with Gordon Lord Byron. The consistent four-year-old has enjoyed a fine campaign so far, registering his third win of the season in some style in the Listed City of York Stakes at the Ebor Festival. He looks set to encounter quicker conditions this weekend, but Hogan is not overly concerned. "He worked well this morning and, at the moment, the intention is for him to travel to Haydock," the Tipperary handler said on Tuesday. "I spoke to someone just down the road from the track and they tell me they've had a bit of rain this morning - I think it should be nice ground. "My preference would be for good ground, ideally." |
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Australian star Ortensia, winner of the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at York on her latest start, tops the list on 138, a pound clear of last year's runner-up Bated Breath.
Darley July Cup hero Mayson is alongside French raider Wizz Kid on 136 with Soul and Society Rock both on 135. Strong Suit has a rating of 133 for Saturday's race - but this includes a + symbol indicating the firm feel he could be capable of a higher mark. Timeform flat handicapper Stephen Molyneux said: "Saturday's race looks to be a very reflective Group One sprint, bringing together the King's Stand, Diamond Jubilee, July Cup and Nunthorpe form. Obviously with sprinters it is far harder to ascertain just who is top of the tree as draw, luck, and particularly this year, ground all play significant factors in the outcome but hopefully Haydock will give us a leveller playing field on those scores. "The condensed Timeform ratings highlight just how competitive a race it is this year with three pounds (the equivalent of a just under a length) separating the first six, and we have Ortensia narrowly coming out on top after her impressive wins in the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and the Nunthorpe at York. "There are definite reasons for believing that Bated Breath would have been bang there had he been drawn higher at York and he has obvious claims of bettering his second in this race 12 months ago. It's also worth pointing out that Strong Suit would have headed our ratings based on his win in the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket last year but obviously his form in 2012 has fallen some way short of that. "If he does return to his best, and six furlongs on fast ground could easily see him do that, then he is another that will enter calculations in what looks a very open and, indeed, strong renewal of the Haydock Sprint Cup." Weight-adjusted Timeform ratings for Betfred Sprint Cup: 138 Ortensia, 137 Bated Breath, 136 Wizz Kid, Mayson, 135 Soul, Society Rock, 133+ Strong Suit. |
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I cud see my old friend Wizz Kid running v well here if showing up, i feel her best form is on better ground, shes deffo no 16s poke. S all
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I cud see my old friend Wizz Kid running v well here if showing up, i feel her best form is on better ground, shes deffo no 16s poke. S all
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You could be right liam. Cannnot believe she is 16s, yesterday she was 12s across the board.
The trainer seemed to indicate that she was coming earlier in the week |
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Big price if she travels well
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Ive backed Strong Suit @8-1 this morning.
To my Mind Ortensia had a hardish race at York making all that ground up, this will be her 5th race since RA and might catch up with her even though ground should suit, it reminded me of a long time ago when Habibti did the same in the Kings Stand when she just caught Anitas Prince and that bottomed her, even at her best shes around 1.5l in front of Sole Power on Meydan form, of course she can win, but i feel shes short now. Bated Breath of course can win, but it rarely pays to follow seemingly unlucky horses all the time. I just feel that SS has the pace to not be far off the leaders, Hughsie wont surely follow Ryans ride at Newbury and if hes back to his best id say hes a 9/2 Chance here. If they do go too fast i can see Dandy Boy picking them up and i'll have a saver at 16-1 |
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Plenty of us are on him Zil. Would be a popular winner.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8054243/paul-messara-q-a |
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A bloke called MARCUS BUCKLAND, writing in the WEEKENDER, thinks that
HAYDOCK is in Yorkshire and his editor did not correct him, probably never heard of the wars of the roses, fought in the middle ages, do these southerners know anything outside of London? |
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Yes, its colder.....
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Racing Post @Racing_Post
Leading Betfred Sprint Cup contender Mayson has been ruled out of race with dirty scope.  |
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Ortensia stall 15, BB stall 1.
Apparently BB has a poor draw ? |
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11 28-126 Bated Breath15 5 9-3 Roger Charlton63 James Doyle 118 128 132
25 829403 Confessional7 eb 5 9-3 Tim Easterby47 Paul Mulrennan 106 111 121 38 992190 Dandy Boy15 6 9-3 David Marnane23 Jamie Spencer 113 121 128 47 607105 Elusivity7 4 9-3 Brian Meehan47 105 111 118 514 8-9400 Genki56 b 8 9-3 Roger Charlton63 Hayley Turner 107 100 118 612 203421 Gordon Lord Byron14 4 9-3 T Hogan33 Richard Kingscote 112 121 127 710 03571 Hawkeyethenoo35 6 9-3 Jim Goldie33 Graham Lee 108 111 124 84 124431 Hitchens14 7 9-3 David Barron62 Graham Gibbons 114 114 128 911 323164 Majestic Myles21 4 9-3 Richard Fahey52 Frederik Tylicki 110 119 125 103 00-353 Society Rock56 5 9-3 James Fanshawe75 Kieren Fallon 117 106 128 116 106416 Soul21 5 9-3 Saeed Bin Suroor43 Frankie Dettori 117 132 132 129 10-082 Strong Suit21 4 9-3 Richard Hannon61 Richard Hughes 120 127 137 132 290704 Es Que Love14 3 9-1 Mark Johnston65 Joe Fanning 105 111 123 1415 19411 Ortensia15 7 9-0 Paul Messara William Buick 115 125 135 1513 2-5102 Wizz Kid34 4 9-0 Robert Collet Gerald Mosse 110 118 127 |
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I have no idea about the draw at Haydock, especially if as someone posted it is the 'old' track.
As far as pace is concerned there doesn't seem to be many natural front runners and those you can such as Es Que Love are low. I'm not sure this is going to be a complete burn up and so something like Society Rock who can lose ground at the start may not be too inconvenienced. I keep going round the houses with this race so its going to be a no bet race for me Good luck to all those that play or have already done so |
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On the likely fast ground I'm happy to give Bated Breath the nod @ 7/2 back at his favourite course.
Just hope the draw isn't a major negative. |
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The ground on the 6f track still looks mainly good, how it will ride is difficult to guage. If it rides no worse than good still
think it's ortensia's for the taking. Just in case for some reason she doesn't fire ,had a bit more than a cover bet on Gordon lord Byron @ 25/1 whose York run could signify a rapidly improving animal. |