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I posted on another thread a few weeks ago about the Gordon & Great Voltigeur as trials for the St.Leger and after yesterday's puzzling & messy affair, I decided to do some deeper investigation.
Noble Mission (who connections surprisingly dispensed with the hood yesterday) pulled for over half the contest as there was not much of a gallop.
To a lesser degree, Encke & Thomas Chippendale were keen as well, and as the winner was Gosden's apparent FOURTH string before yesterday (and given a canny ride to boot) can we really come to any definite conclusions?
Over the years, the Gordon Stakes & Voltigeur have a mixed record (concerning who won them) where it comes to finding the St.Leger winner, but there's no question that here is where virtually all the clues are;
Five colts, Minster Son (1988) Nedawi (1998) Millenary (2000) Sixties Icon (2006) & Conduit (2008) have all won the Gordon and followed up at Doncaster.
Another five colts, Reference Point (1987) Bob's Return (1993) Milan (2001) Rule Of Law (2004) & Lucarno (2007) have won the Voltigeur and followed up in the final Classic.
Since 1980, horses to have done the 'trial double' include another five colts, Prince Bee (1980) Electric (1982) Bonny Scot (1992) Stowaway (1997) & Bandari (2002) and all bar Stowaway (who missed the gig) were beaten at short odds at Town Moor!
It's clear that these are the trials to concentrate on but it's telling that no winner of the two main trials has been able to confirm the form over the longer trip.
Take a look at how many St.Leger WINNERS have been beaten fair & square in one of those two trials over the last 30 years or so;
1980 Light Cavalry
1982 Touching Wood (beaten in both trials)
1986 Moon Madness
1997 Silver Patriarch
1999 Mutafaweq
2002 Bollin Eric
2003 Brian Boru
2009 Mastery
2010 Arctic Cosmos
As a vast majority of the time, the winners of these trials do run at Doncaster, you have to ask yourself why are the found out?
Obviously there is an extra 2f & 132 yards to negotiate and also, by September, the ground is invariably different to what's been encountered at Goodwood & York.
I wouldn't be giving up hope just yet on the beaten horses from yesterday.
Noble Mission (who connections surprisingly dispensed with the hood yesterday) pulled for over half the contest as there was not much of a gallop.
To a lesser degree, Encke & Thomas Chippendale were keen as well, and as the winner was Gosden's apparent FOURTH string before yesterday (and given a canny ride to boot) can we really come to any definite conclusions?
Over the years, the Gordon Stakes & Voltigeur have a mixed record (concerning who won them) where it comes to finding the St.Leger winner, but there's no question that here is where virtually all the clues are;
Five colts, Minster Son (1988) Nedawi (1998) Millenary (2000) Sixties Icon (2006) & Conduit (2008) have all won the Gordon and followed up at Doncaster.
Another five colts, Reference Point (1987) Bob's Return (1993) Milan (2001) Rule Of Law (2004) & Lucarno (2007) have won the Voltigeur and followed up in the final Classic.
Since 1980, horses to have done the 'trial double' include another five colts, Prince Bee (1980) Electric (1982) Bonny Scot (1992) Stowaway (1997) & Bandari (2002) and all bar Stowaway (who missed the gig) were beaten at short odds at Town Moor!
It's clear that these are the trials to concentrate on but it's telling that no winner of the two main trials has been able to confirm the form over the longer trip.
Take a look at how many St.Leger WINNERS have been beaten fair & square in one of those two trials over the last 30 years or so;
1980 Light Cavalry
1982 Touching Wood (beaten in both trials)
1986 Moon Madness
1997 Silver Patriarch
1999 Mutafaweq
2002 Bollin Eric
2003 Brian Boru
2009 Mastery
2010 Arctic Cosmos
As a vast majority of the time, the winners of these trials do run at Doncaster, you have to ask yourself why are the found out?
Obviously there is an extra 2f & 132 yards to negotiate and also, by September, the ground is invariably different to what's been encountered at Goodwood & York.
I wouldn't be giving up hope just yet on the beaten horses from yesterday.
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The trends paint a mixed picture dont they? Trial winners have a good record of following up as do horses who were beaten in them. Logic makes sense or is unsurprising for both types.
Sint - in the main I'm definitely NOT one for stats & trends.
However, there is a certain 'path' that 98% of St.Leger contenders follow when it comes to the principals involved in the betting or at the business end of the Town Moor Classic.
This is an undeniable trend as the only real trial over 14f is the March Stakes at Goodwood, which over the last decade or so has degenerated into a glorified handicap, which is a shame as I recall Commanche Run hosing up in it!
The Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket (formerly a handicap) has proved a fair guide over the years in throwing up a decent stayer, as have a couple of French races over extended distances.
Maybe there's something wrong with the otherwise excellent pattern system in this country, and it needs to be further addressed.
However, there is a certain 'path' that 98% of St.Leger contenders follow when it comes to the principals involved in the betting or at the business end of the Town Moor Classic.
This is an undeniable trend as the only real trial over 14f is the March Stakes at Goodwood, which over the last decade or so has degenerated into a glorified handicap, which is a shame as I recall Commanche Run hosing up in it!
The Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket (formerly a handicap) has proved a fair guide over the years in throwing up a decent stayer, as have a couple of French races over extended distances.
Maybe there's something wrong with the otherwise excellent pattern system in this country, and it needs to be further addressed.
As ever,the trials are trials.The extra distance of the Leger [after all A Classic] will usually find out none stayers.Every one talks about stamina issues before the 2,000 gns and Derby,but little has been said re the principles in the Leger.I have 'laid' Camelot as i cannot see him getting the trip,his dams side has little stamina in it.I wish i could have 'laid' him at 1-4.Mr Gosden has several entries,all stoutly bred.Interestingly,o'brien doesn't seem to have a serious 2nd choice for the race.Stoutly bred Imperial Monarch is reported to be dropping back to 10f.He is around 10-1 a/post, but 200-1 on betfair for the 'Leger'
Thought the most interesting race at York with regards to the Leger was the Melrose. Guarantee won by over 3 lehgths off 95, time 3 seconds faster than the Ebor and looks a proper stayer. The 3 year olds from earlier in the season were a disappointing bunch and Camelot didn't look like a horse who'd want a mile and six on testing ground at the Curragh. It's an unconventional route to the Leger but his trainer has just hit form and has an enviable Classic record.
And he wasn't going away at the Curragh. The horse he beat there is hardly top class and he's worth taking on. The Derby form doesn't look that strong either and early/mid season 3 year olds haven't been vintage. I think there's also a stat that horses ned to have run within the last month to win the Leger and, while I accept stats are there to be disproved, I've seen nothing to make me think he'll be better over an extra 2 furlongs and nothing to make me think he's unbeatable.
I agree he doesn't look unbeatable, but I do think he's the best of a fairly poor lot of 3yos and that he'll stay 14.5 f on likley decent ground. Obviously he's not a stats horse for the Leger but that's not always a great guide.
I also would want to take on Camelot...the problem is what with?
I was hoping Thomas Chippendale might have been the one to step forward and improve, and though the pace/ground were not ideal for him at York and he was carrying a penalty, he was still disappointing. Not sure they'll send him now.
Is Great Heavens going for this? SB are 14s and the last price on here before the suspension was 18
I was hoping Thomas Chippendale might have been the one to step forward and improve, and though the pace/ground were not ideal for him at York and he was carrying a penalty, he was still disappointing. Not sure they'll send him now.
Is Great Heavens going for this? SB are 14s and the last price on here before the suspension was 18
Apparently Thomas Chippendale was unsuited by the ground at York and his home work had been good so he's a possible. Camelot, as we all know, is the likeliest winner but never at the price he currently is.
I dont particularly think Camelot is extraordinary either but so far this season the cards have fallen his way and I get the feeling the same will happen at Doncaster. Most of the opposition comes from the same yard so they may not even run them all.
Unoriginal but Thought Worthy ran respectably in the Derby (for a stayer), has formed with Imperial Monarch, and is a half-brother to Lucarno. He looks the obvious one to me at this stage.
Unoriginal but Thought Worthy ran respectably in the Derby (for a stayer), has formed with Imperial Monarch, and is a half-brother to Lucarno. He looks the obvious one to me at this stage.
Lucarno was probably the most impressive of all recent Leger winners and improved the most for the extra 2 furlongs so that can't harm Thought Worthy's prospects I guess.
lucarno was 4th to authorized at epsom ,won the great vol and even back then the st leger did not take much winning ,although whether lucarno was a true stayer is open for debate,gosden had it super fit ...almost overtrained it imo .
a derby winner should have the class to get past this years st leger field no problem.
doesnt need to "stay" imo ...its not exactly the gold cup .
should be putting a hurdle or two up in this race to make it a little less boring and help the jump breeders spot the best sire
classic cliche is a great jumps sire
although he was a proper stayer he easily won the st leger ,then the following year won the gold cup .
not many done that ...not a big fan of the race but moonax at a 66/1 was a big day .
moonax ended up over hurdles himself ....its usually the offspring
a derby winner should have the class to get past this years st leger field no problem.
doesnt need to "stay" imo ...its not exactly the gold cup .
should be putting a hurdle or two up in this race to make it a little less boring and help the jump breeders spot the best sire
classic cliche is a great jumps sire
although he was a proper stayer he easily won the st leger ,then the following year won the gold cup .not many done that ...not a big fan of the race but moonax at a 66/1 was a big day .
moonax ended up over hurdles himself ....its usually the offspring
the fact connections of camelot are going for the triple crown should be applauded and if it does win will be a decent training feat ...no doubt about it and it will show the beast is a proper horse and i think this is what the st leger is really about ...versatility .
How significant is the St Leger (full stop)? Looking at recent winners of the race, apart from Conduit, there were some reasonable but easily forgettable horses. For me, a triple crown winner does not have anywhere near the significance it would've had in the past. Particularly when you look at the level of performance it has required of Camelot if he accomplishes his target. The Guineas was the worst I've seen in recent years, I thought so at the time and nothing has happened since to change that view. His Derby win was up to the standard of a good winner and the Leger is at his mercy if he can run anywhere near that. I believe most decent Derby winners would be able to take the Leger if they were aimed at it and kept under wraps for it, as Camelot has. The fact is though, these days most connections of Derby winners do not show the slightest interest in the Leger.
Figgis, it's main significance is as a Triumph Hurdle trial. Look at the mighty Celestial Halo.
I put up Encke on another thread because of these reasons (I thought it was this thread) but I have to admit I did have reservations about his stamina.
I backed & laid Encke, Noble Mission & Thomas Chippendale several times, and for a nice change I've come up trumps.
In the main, I'm NOT a stats man, but when you're talking about lightly raced 3yo's with stamina concerns and no trials over the distance to go on, it's all guesswork - at the prices I backed the above three (for a total liability of a paltry £7) I've hit the jackpot for a relatively small punter and won over £1300
I backed & laid Encke, Noble Mission & Thomas Chippendale several times, and for a nice change I've come up trumps.
In the main, I'm NOT a stats man, but when you're talking about lightly raced 3yo's with stamina concerns and no trials over the distance to go on, it's all guesswork - at the prices I backed the above three (for a total liability of a paltry £7) I've hit the jackpot for a relatively small punter and won over £1300
Well done OP - runners in the Voltiger and Gordon do have a tremendous record in the Leger and this one had come 2nd and 3rd in them - maybe not such a shock after all?
Strontium - the only relative 'shock' was that Camelot seemed to fail with no real excuses, despite the criticism of his pilot.
My main 'confidence' stemmed from the fact I reasoned there was very little between EVERY other runner in the race, and I really believe Henry fcuked up in not running Noble Mission.
He ran him in both trials (short-heading Encke at Goodwood) and I'm assuming he decided to withdraw him because of the Voltigeur, which was a farce of a race!
Noble Mission pulled more than Encke & Thomas Chippendale at York, and only consented to race on the turn into the straight - it's bewildering
I'm a big fan of Cecil but sometimes his caution is frustrating...after seeing what Encke did on Saturday, I think BOTH are worth a crack at the Arc!
PS - Noble Mission also had a Niel entry.
My main 'confidence' stemmed from the fact I reasoned there was very little between EVERY other runner in the race, and I really believe Henry fcuked up in not running Noble Mission.
He ran him in both trials (short-heading Encke at Goodwood) and I'm assuming he decided to withdraw him because of the Voltigeur, which was a farce of a race!
Noble Mission pulled more than Encke & Thomas Chippendale at York, and only consented to race on the turn into the straight - it's bewildering
I'm a big fan of Cecil but sometimes his caution is frustrating...after seeing what Encke did on Saturday, I think BOTH are worth a crack at the Arc!
PS - Noble Mission also had a Niel entry.
I know the form stacks up, but honestly don't think NM would have stayed.
Roo - I too had strong reservations about his stamina though I had them about Encke & Thomas Chippendale too!
The point is that the trials tell a valid tale, and we never know until they try the trip.
The point is that the trials tell a valid tale, and we never know until they try the trip.
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