International Handicap Ascot Saturday ( Any thoughts )

Jockey booking just checked on Global Village is 0/4 on him doesnt fill one with confidence, will wait till day re going might have some more on Nathaniel instead.

Won't be soft enough for Global Village if the forecast is correct, or for any other runner that prefers it soft.

Excellent Guest
Not clear run 2f out in last year's Bunbury Cup. Imo would have won with a clear run.

This year's Royal Hunt Cup, going better than the winner 2f out to 1f out, but just outpaced near the finish. This drop back in trip looks ideal. Proven on the course, Frankie on-board. Think he can handle the 4lb extra. 16/1 Coral, 12/1 anywhere else.

hawkeyethenoo will have better ground this time and likes ascot

Thought Bonnie Brae won well easily last weekend. 3lb rise not overly harsh.

Hawkeyethenoo was my 5 day pick and happy to secure some 16/1, bigger now than Monday.

Castles In The Air likes the track and is now becoming well handicapped, plus jockey takes off a further 3lb. Massive weight pull with Edinburgh Knight from race over c/d at back end of last season.

Selections

Bonnie Brae E/W 9/1 5 places
Hawkeyethenoo E/W 16/1 4 places
Castles In The Air E/W 33/1 4 places & 25/1 5 places

Agree that ground is likely to be slightly quicker than currently is unless they get all the showers that are a possibility. That won't be Bonnie Brae's favour and if it is soft I think she would be a worthy favourite.

I have played Hawkeyethenoo also and Van Ellis. I think Hawkeyethenoo is coming into form and his last two races face up to the closest scrutiny in terms of this race the only thing that prevents me more confident is the draw.

Whilst I suspect many 3yos will have too high a rating in all aged handicaps, Van Ellis is at least unbeaten at the trip, ran well enough at the Royal Meeting and is at least berthed in either a very high/low draw ( who knows where or if there will be a bias ). With the possible exception of Highland Colori ( who may keep himself ahead of the handicapper due to his run style )not sure that there are any progessive older horses so worth a stab in a very open race.

Global drifting all day Friday not good sign? Phs had saver on your selection given jock booking and Ascot form, not sure re draw.

Backed ExcellentGuest aswell. I never thought a mile suited him so his effort last time was very good. A drop back 1furlong on better ground should be plum. Obviously he has gone up 4lb for it and the draw can be a pain but with Frankie on and 14/1 it's worth a risk. Stable form a query.

Have chucked a few quid at Capall Liath based on course form/trip form also.

I agree with Terry V.

Castles In The Air is a standout on weight pulls with Eton & Knight. 7lb lower than when winning 2 years ago and another 3Lb for the jockey who got one home yesterday. Fahey's horses are absolutely flying 7 winners from last 10 runners and the other 3 were second. Surely must have a very strong e/w chance only negative is age as most of the previous winners are 4yr olds but 33/1 is more than fair. I think it may start 16/1 to 20/1.

If yesterday's racing and the latest stick reports are to be believed, don't want to be drawn high

Agree with roobuck, if they all end up racing in one group 1/3rd off the far rail, it's unlikely anything drawn 21 to 29 will win.

...so they might as well stay where they are.

Well they'll be idiots if they drift over. Ruth Carr's are drawn 28/29 and I'd be gobsmacked if they don't go for the near rail. Ascot is notorious for seemingly changing from day to day anyway.

Ha ha! - that 1:35 has put the cat amongst the pigeons. They'll most likely split high and low now.

Done 3 in the race for small ew ££.
Exellent Guest, Hawkeyethenoo, Castles in the Air.
Gd ground will help them 2day, hopefully there will be a gd pace far side (low)
All the best.

You were saying Roo! Idiots it must be then.

What did you make of the ride on our hope Phs? Thought it rather poor myself.

Well, it started by them all coming up the middle. If you back one on the far side, you'd hope those on that side stay there, but no let's negate any advantage there may be in being far side. Then held up behind a wall of horses in the centre of a pack of 25 or so. What chance have you got unless the sea parts and they suddenly let you through. If your going to hold up like that, you need to position on one of the wings of the group so you can pull out. I think once he realised he wasn't going to get through, he understandably made no effort with the horse, to save it for next time.

Not so sure it would have beaten the winner anyway though; too well handicapped. Had the winner in my notebook, but as it came late over a mile, couldn't really fancy it dropping back.

18 6    2½      Excellent Guest 10/1    5    8-10     George Margarson    98    *    *   
b g Exceed And Excel (AUS) - Princess Speedfit (FR) (Desert Prince)
Frankie Dettori
   
Held up towards rear, travelling well enough but never a clear passage from 2f out, some progress entering final furlong, soon stopped again, eased when no chance inside final furlong (op 14-1)

Harry Bently rode bertiewhittle with verve and inteligence today ,won't be long before he is riding for a top stable imo

reminded me of Man Of Action.

Excellent guest , Eton forever , Hawkeythenoo to name but three, did not get a run yesterday
The going stick readings ( as far as i know)   indicated  a centre field bias  so that is where they all headed
and it will happen again for some other big handicap soon , probably at Goodwood . So check
the all readings before parting with your money there is my advice.The course executive could make the decision not to issue readings across the course it would be the sensible option to take

So you would rather punters didn't know where the faster ground is ?!?
Giving the stick readings across the track is one of the better policies.

my friend , I would rather no one knew , just have one centre  field reading for the entire Course   if the reading was say 8.5  then jockeys  and trainers could  not assume it was slower on either wing , Horses would be more likely to get a run and race-form  would be less skewed imo

mac, the stick reading for the far side was saying that was fastest, yet hardly anyone went there.

The jockeys/trainers walk the course form their opinions,and then go for the piece of ground they think is fastest, don't think they pay too much attention to official stick readings tbh. And then when the evidence actually seems to indicate that stands side is riding as well as anywhere after the first race, like lemmings they stick to their original thoughts not wanting to be seen to be different and be blamed accordingly.

Do you honestly believe that if official reading was say 7.5, but it was in reality 6.5 one side and 8.5 on the other, they would actually race across the track?

Of course they wouldn't and so if you then backed something high and they all went the other side wouldn't you be slightly miffed that this information had not been available to you?

hey roo, got this from Turftrax archive

Ascot
Meeting Date    Official Going    GoingStick Index
22-Jul-12    Straight Course: Good
Round Course: Good to Soft    Standside: 8.2
Centre: 8.5
Farside: 8.3
Round: 6.6
on Saturday at 10:00


I think what you say was the case until a year or two  ago, they are clued up now , too clued up imo

On your other point  I think they would as in  the past walk the track and make a judgement
tat race yesterday  should have consisted of at least two groups

OK fair enough, I was sure I read that far side was .1 quicker than centre, but accept that I got that wrong.

Of course the field should have split, but I still don't think that is anything to do with the official readings mac and I want as much info as possible when it comes to day of race betting. Agree to differ on that one I guess

The answer is I believe is to take all  three readings as now  but to issue only a centre of Course reading  on the day/days of the races  , the other readings can be added to the archive for future  guidance and help  to  all interested  parties

So have the information but withold it...that's worse!

but the information as you have already said is very often inaccurate by the time these cavalry charges get started, so for the sake of  a reading taken from a piece of wood stuck in the ground a Jockey will sacrifice a perfectly  viable position  for a sometimes  less good position and will tack his Horse left or right across the Track to do so

Didn't know about this:

Margarson revealed: "Excellent Guest is on course for the Betfred Mile. He seems in good form after his non event at Ascot, when he head-butted the stalls and lost his race at the start."