Couldnt find a thread for this race and it's obviously one of the trickier races to get involved in ante-post due to the strong draw bias.
Early fancy is for Godolphin's Con Artist, who has done most of his racing over 10f but isnt really bred for that far (by Invincible Spirit) and has always shown plenty of pace in his races. Emerged with plenty of credit dropped back to 8f at Sandown on Eclipse day, receiving a positive ride from his wide stall and still bang there until tiring in the last 150 yds (other frontrunner Stage Attraction well beaten off and in-form Spas Dancer only getting past him in final strides).
The winner of that race Trade Commissioner is a warm fav for this and obviously progressive but Con Artist isnt without a squeak of turning those tables on 7lb better terms for 2¼l if ridden with a bit more restraint (TC was able to sit in probably the ideal position the way the Sandown race developed and the margin between the pair may well have been different if their draws had been reversed anyway).
Currently 25/1 and i've no idea if he's an intended runner!
Always go to this day and one of my fav races. Would disagree with the notion of horses stepping back down in trip for this event(none of the last ten winners had won over 10f prior to winning this event, a few had stepped up from winning 7f races!!)
Its a tricky event to punt on AP because of the draw, and unless they keep the rail out(is taken in for the friday and saturday usually, probably why its been such a draw race)nthings happen in a hurry and you have to have a lot of toe, imo the fav is far to be suited by this, maybe it was the ground but i wouldnt like to be taking a short price about one who has won over 10 and looked to be needing the hill at Sandown.
Always go to this day and one of my fav races. Would disagree with the notion of horses stepping back down in trip for this event(none of the last ten winners had won over 10f prior to winning this event, a few had stepped up from winning 7f races!!)
A few have won over 9f previous, dont get me wrong im no slavish follower of trends except when they can be explained, its an easy Mile around a bend usually run on quickish ground and Unless you are one of the best 7-8f handicappers with a telling turn of foot(Laa Rayb) you are in a bad place being drawn wide or not racing in the 1st ten.
All im saying is that its a place where Stamina doesnt play as big a part as in many top mile handicaps, if you are coming from behind imo you need 7-8 pace to win this event
A few have won over 9f previous, dont get me wrong im no slavish follower of trends except when they can be explained, its an easy Mile around a bend usually run on quickish ground and Unless you are one of the best 7-8f handicappers with a telling t
hear what you're saying, zil...dont think Con Artist lacks pace at all tbh, just think he's been running over wrong trip...as you say, draw is pivotal but there's always a chance the fav will be drawn 20 aswell!
hear what you're saying, zil...dont think Con Artist lacks pace at all tbh, just think he's been running over wrong trip...as you say, draw is pivotal but there's always a chance the fav will be drawn 20 aswell!
I cant have this fav at all tbh, racing here will be a bit different than outclassing 85-95 rated handicappers off 86 like he did at Salisbury, i thought he looked as if he wanted further at Sandown myself and wouldnt bank on him being able to do it instantly over this c/d
This along with his trainer being red hot could see him in "Green Destiny" price territory and thus one to take on if he's drawn low
I cant have this fav at all tbh, racing here will be a bit different than outclassing 85-95 rated handicappers off 86 like he did at Salisbury, i thought he looked as if he wanted further at Sandown myself and wouldnt bank on him being able to do it
i dont know, roo...i've had a few bob on! i'm sure the cynics amongst you will think i've plaguarised Segal's column here- that's upto you! (backed it on monday fwiw)...have actually just opened my Weekender for the first time in the bath 20 mins ago and was most taken aback to see him giving it a mention...let's hope he's right for once!
i dont know, roo...i've had a few bob on! i'm sure the cynics amongst you will think i've plaguarised Segal's column here- that's upto you! (backed it on monday fwiw)...have actually just opened my Weekender for the first time in the bath 20 mins ago
Fair point duncan, if you've had more than a tenner on at this stage the price will collapse
Good luck with your bet, one race I couldn't possibly get involved in at this stage
Fair point duncan, if you've had more than a tenner on at this stage the price will collapse Good luck with your bet, one race I couldn't possibly get involved in at this stage
Segal thinks like I, the draw is irrelevant when backing ante-post as is the going, we expect to have got all of the pointers and believe we have it right, there's no point otherwise and I have won more money ante-post than any other method. Backed SUNDEW on the Monday after the Grand Naional of 1956 for the 1957 race, took 100/8 or 12.5 to 1, it won at 20/1 but never put me off, I was 18 at the time.
Segal thinks like I, the draw is irrelevant when backing ante-post as is the going,we expect to have got all of the pointers and believe we have it right, there's nopoint otherwise and I have won more money ante-post than any other method.Backed SUND
NO. DRAW HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR 116 41-215 Prince Of Johanne5 p 6 9-10 Tom Tate60 Darren Egan5 106 107 114 221 31311 Trade Commissioner27 4 9-9 John Gosden67 William Buick 105 111 115 313 600471 Field Of Dream13 3xb 5 9-6 Jamie Osborne69 Jamie Spencer 102 100 117 418 200404 Bannock5 3 9-4 Mark Johnston59 Silvestre De Sousa 107 106 116 514 7-0341 Smarty Socks69 8 9-4 David O´Meara43 Kieren Fallon 100 88 113 615 682070 Belgian Bill20 t 4 9-3 George Baker42 Johnny Murtagh 99 114 115 722 1151-0 Boom And Bust44 5 9-3 Marcus Tregoning50 Hayley Turner 99 81 98 820 230318 Memory Cloth20 5 9-3 Brian Ellison44 Dale Swift3 99 99 116 93 20-020 Excellent Guest13 5 9-2 George Margarson50 Tom Queally 98 98 115 1019 21103- Johnny Castle331 4 9-0 Amanda Perrett40 Ryan Moore 96 88 117 1112 410313 Madam Macie15 5 9-0 David O´Meara43 Daniel Tudhope 96 108 112 1211 510-55 Decent Fella20 tv 6 9-0 Andrew Balding55 Jimmy Fortune 96 91 115 134 701-50 Xilerator69 5 8-13 David Nicholls45 95 116 120 1410 000308 Mabait13 6 8-13 David Simcock74 Alice Haynes7 95 88 116 157 95904 Sir Reginald20 4 8-13 Richard Fahey58 Paul Hanagan 95 92 105 168 010611 Fulbright6 6x 3 8-13 Mark Johnston59 Joe Fanning 102 125 128 171 26-211 Swiftly Done36 5 8-12 Declan Carroll33 Graham Gibbons 94 109 116 1817 250325 Mister Music22 3 8-11 Richard Hannon72 Richard Hughes 100 111 122 195 4-8505 Albaqaa27 7 8-11 P J O´Gorman Kieran O'Neill 93 109 120 206 41082 Captain Bertie20 4 8-11 Charles Hills53 Michael Hills 93 102 115 219 945322 Vainglory13 8 8-10 David Simcock74 Martin Lane 92 113 117 222 4-146 Kahruman43 3 8-9 William Haggas60 Paul Hanagan 98 98 114
NO. DRAW HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR116 41-215 Prince Of Johanne5 p 6 9-10 Tom Tate60 Darren Egan5 106 107 114221 31311 Trade Commissioner27 4 9-9 John Gosden67
Of those drawn low Excellent guest could have the best form .His second in the hunt cup would give him a decent chance off a level playing field , the draw advantage could give him a favourites chance. Could need some luck in running and unsure if a turning track will be ideal. 14/1 best price handles these doubts estimated true price 7/1 and backed it.
Of those drawn low Excellent guest could have the best form .His second in the hunt cup would give him a decent chance off a levelplaying field , the draw advantage could give him a favourites chance. Could need some luck in running and unsure if a t
Surprise surprise - Gosden withdraws the favourite after getting a shocking draw. He says the horse hasn't eaten up - what a load of b**locks.
At least it means my fancy Vainglory gets a run.
Surprise surprise - Gosden withdraws the favourite after getting a shocking draw. He says the horse hasn't eaten up - what a load of b**locks.At least it means my fancy Vainglory gets a run.
I think Belgian Bill deserves one more chance , he had not run for 102 days before his initial at Ascot in June ,that was a very hot race Dimension ,the fav , only managed seventh that day but went on to win a good race last weekend, he was prominent six furlongs then a lack of race fitness told , his next run just two days later on soft at the same course can be ignored , his last run was on heavy so will forgive him that.....might be his day tomorrow Vain Glory has a lively chance if not leaving it too late, as do a host of others
I think Belgian Bill deserves one more chance , he had not run for 102 days before his initial at Ascot in June ,that was a very hot race Dimension ,the fav , only managed seventh that day but went on to win a good race last weekend, he was
Memory Cloth is a huge price on here and I've also had a saver on Decent Fella. A wide open handicap with the inevitable traffic trouble, so sometimes if a horse is held-up, it's maybe not too disadvantageous to have an outside draw.
The pair I've gone for run off marks they're capable of winning from (as do many others in the race) and as usual with sizeable fields on this track, there's gonna be a lot of luck involved.
PS - unlucky for Duncan to have his horse a late NR
Memory Cloth is a huge price on here and I've also had a saver on Decent Fella.A wide open handicap with the inevitable traffic trouble, so sometimes if a horse is held-up, it's maybe not too disadvantageous to have an outside draw.The pair I've gone
Had only a small interest in the race, Alabaqaa 12s, chance on the best bits of his form, and a gd draw, which is norm vital in this race. Gd luck all.
Had only a small interest in the race, Alabaqaa 12s, chance on the best bits of his form, and a gd draw, which is norm vital in this race. Gd luck all.