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duncan idaho
18 Jul 12 09:23
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Date Joined: 08 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 25,635 | Blogger: duncan idaho's blog
Couldnt find a thread for this race and it's obviously one of the trickier races to get involved in ante-post due to the strong draw bias.

Early fancy is for Godolphin's Con Artist, who has done most of his racing over 10f but isnt really bred for that far (by Invincible Spirit) and has always shown plenty of pace in his races. Emerged with plenty of credit dropped back to 8f at Sandown on Eclipse day, receiving a positive ride from his wide stall and still bang there until tiring in the last 150 yds (other frontrunner Stage Attraction well beaten off and in-form Spas Dancer only getting past him in final strides).

The winner of that race Trade Commissioner is a warm fav for this and obviously progressive but Con Artist isnt without a squeak of turning those tables on 7lb better terms for 2¼l if ridden with a bit more restraint (TC was able to sit in probably the ideal position the way the Sandown race developed and the margin between the pair may well have been different if their draws had been reversed anyway).

Currently 25/1 and i've no idea if he's an intended runner!
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Report zilzal1 July 18, 2012 11:04 AM BST
Always go to this day and one of my fav races. Would disagree with the notion of horses stepping back down in trip for this event(none of the last ten winners had won over 10f prior to winning this event, a few had stepped up from winning 7f races!!)

Its a tricky event to punt on AP because of the draw, and unless they keep the rail out(is taken in for the friday and saturday usually, probably why its been such a draw race)nthings happen in a hurry and you have to have a lot of toe, imo the fav is far to be suited by this, maybe it was the ground but i wouldnt like to be taking a short price about one who has won over 10 and looked to be needing the hill at Sandown.
Report duncan idaho July 18, 2012 11:49 AM BST
3-way photo last year...2nd and 3rd had won over 9f previously, so that trend only just alive!!


No worries...i dont do trends. Enjoy your day out.
Report zilzal1 July 18, 2012 12:18 PM BST
A few have won over 9f previous, dont get me wrong im no slavish follower of trends except when they can be explained, its an easy Mile around a bend usually run on quickish ground and Unless you are one of the best 7-8f handicappers with a telling turn of foot(Laa RaybLove) you are in a bad place being drawn wide or not racing in the 1st ten.

All im saying is that its a place where Stamina doesnt play as big a part as in many top mile handicaps, if you are coming from behind imo you need 7-8 pace to win this event
Report duncan idaho July 18, 2012 12:37 PM BST
hear what you're saying, zil...dont think Con Artist lacks pace at all tbh, just think he's been running over wrong trip...as you say, draw is pivotal but there's always a chance the fav will be drawn 20 aswell!
Report zilzal1 July 18, 2012 1:09 PM BST
I cant have this fav at all tbh, racing here will be a bit different than outclassing 85-95 rated handicappers off 86 like he did at Salisbury, i thought he looked as if he wanted further at Sandown myself and wouldnt bank on him being able to do it instantly over this c/d

This along with his trainer being red hot could see him in "Green Destiny" price territory and thus one to take on if he's drawn low
Report Howellsy July 18, 2012 5:59 PM BST
I'll have whatever's in stall 1 please, and if that's a hold up horse I'll have a saver on the lowest drawn pace horse.
Report TINnotaTON July 18, 2012 6:55 PM BST
having read your post duncan, think it's defo worth a bet, lot of blue on oddschecker to ive noticed, you may have started the gamble Wink
Report zilzal1 July 18, 2012 7:33 PM BST
Given a favourable mention by Segal in this mornings weekender the more likely reason!!
Report roobuck July 18, 2012 7:34 PM BST
Think he was mentioned by Tom Segal in the Weekender - more likely reason tbh with the greatest respect to Duncan naturally
Report duncan idaho July 18, 2012 8:51 PM BST
i dont know, roo...i've had a few bob on! i'm sure the cynics amongst you will think i've plaguarised Segal's column here- that's upto you! (backed it on monday fwiw)...have actually just opened my Weekender for the first time in the bath 20 mins ago and was most taken aback to see him giving it a mention...let's hope he's right for once!
Report roobuck July 19, 2012 8:05 AM BST
Fair point duncan, if you've had more than a tenner on at this stage the price will collapse Laugh

Good luck with your bet, one race I couldn't possibly get involved in at this stage
Report bazzar July 19, 2012 8:14 PM BST
Segal thinks like I, the draw is irrelevant when backing ante-post as is the going,
we expect to have got all of the pointers and believe we have it right, there's no
point otherwise and I have won more money ante-post than any other method.
Backed SUNDEW on the Monday after the Grand Naional of 1956 for the 1957 race,
took 100/8 or 12.5 to 1, it won at 20/1 but never put me off, I was 18 at the time.
Report duncan idaho August 1, 2012 11:22 AM BST
Cry
Report turnip turns August 1, 2012 11:43 AM BST
NO. DRAW    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
116     41-215    Prince Of Johanne5 p      6    9-10    Tom Tate60    Darren Egan5     106    107    114
221    31311    Trade Commissioner27      4    9-9    John Gosden67    William Buick     105    111    115
313     600471    Field Of Dream13 3xb    5    9-6    Jamie Osborne69    Jamie Spencer     102    100    117
418    200404    Bannock5    3    9-4    Mark Johnston59    Silvestre De Sousa     107    106    116
514     7-0341    Smarty Socks69      8    9-4    David O´Meara43    Kieren Fallon     100    88    113
615    682070    Belgian Bill20 t      4    9-3    George Baker42    Johnny Murtagh     99    114    115
722     1151-0    Boom And Bust44      5    9-3    Marcus Tregoning50    Hayley Turner     99    81    98
820     230318    Memory Cloth20      5    9-3    Brian Ellison44    Dale Swift3     99    99    116
93     20-020    Excellent Guest13    5    9-2    George Margarson50    Tom Queally     98    98    115
1019     21103-    Johnny Castle331    4    9-0    Amanda Perrett40    Ryan Moore     96    88    117
1112     410313    Madam Macie15      5    9-0    David O´Meara43    Daniel Tudhope     96    108    112
1211     510-55    Decent Fella20 tv      6    9-0    Andrew Balding55    Jimmy Fortune     96    91    115
134     701-50    Xilerator69    5    8-13    David Nicholls45         95    116    120
1410     000308    Mabait13      6    8-13    David Simcock74    Alice Haynes7     95    88    116
157     95904    Sir Reginald20    4    8-13    Richard Fahey58    Paul Hanagan     95    92    105
168     010611    Fulbright6 6x    3    8-13    Mark Johnston59    Joe Fanning     102    125    128
171     26-211    Swiftly Done36      5    8-12    Declan Carroll33    Graham Gibbons     94    109    116
1817     250325    Mister Music22    3    8-11    Richard Hannon72    Richard Hughes     100    111    122
195     4-8505    Albaqaa27      7    8-11    P J O´Gorman    Kieran O'Neill     93    109    120
206     41082    Captain Bertie20      4    8-11    Charles Hills53    Michael Hills     93    102    115
219     945322    Vainglory13      8    8-10    David Simcock74    Martin Lane     92    113    117
222     4-146    Kahruman43      3    8-9    William Haggas60    Paul Hanagan     98    98    114
Report tinkler August 1, 2012 12:17 PM BST
Of those drawn low Excellent guest could have the best form .His second in the hunt cup would give him a decent chance off a level
playing field , the draw advantage could give him a favourites chance. Could need some luck in running and unsure if a turning
track will be ideal. 14/1 best price handles these doubts estimated true price 7/1 and backed it.
Report unclepuncle August 1, 2012 5:08 PM BST
Decent Fella @ 22 and Vainglory @ 30 (if he gets in being 1st reserve) for me - good luck.
Report roobuck August 1, 2012 6:03 PM BST
Agree re Decent Fella and with the Johnston team in such form, Fulbright has to have a chance as well
Report unclepuncle August 2, 2012 11:55 AM BST
Surprise surprise - Gosden withdraws the favourite after getting a shocking draw. He says the horse hasn't eaten up - what a load of b**locks.Cry

At least it means my fancy Vainglory gets a run.Grin
Report mac99 August 2, 2012 10:27 PM BST
I think Belgian Bill deserves one more chance , he had not run for 102 days before his initial   at Ascot in June ,that was a very hot race    Dimension ,the fav ,  only managed  seventh that day  but went on to win a good race last weekend, he was  prominent six furlongs  then a lack of race fitness told , his next run just two days later on soft at the same course  can be ignored , his  last run was on heavy  so will forgive him that.....might be his day tomorrow
Vain Glory has a lively chance if not leaving it too late,  as do a host of others
Report mac99 August 2, 2012 10:28 PM BST
initial run*  at Ascot
Report Navel-Gazer August 3, 2012 1:57 PM BST
Memory Cloth is a huge price on here and I've also had a saver on Decent Fella.
A wide open handicap with the inevitable traffic trouble, so sometimes if a horse is held-up, it's maybe not too disadvantageous to have
an outside draw.

The pair I've gone for run off marks they're capable of winning from (as do many others in the race) and as usual with sizeable fields on this track, there's gonna be a lot of luck involved.

PS - unlucky for Duncan to have his horse a late NR Sad
Report Millerracing67 August 3, 2012 3:12 PM BST
Had only a small interest in the race, Alabaqaa 12s, chance on the best bits of his form, and a gd draw, which is norm vital in this race. Gd luck all.
Report tinkler August 3, 2012 8:38 PM BST
Impressive win from Fulbright ,good pick Roobuck.
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