Horse Antepost
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16 Jul 12
22:31
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03 Feb 11
Ok so its a long way off and there are many things that can go wrong, not least of all not having an entry but here is a horse who I am convinced is upto winning a group one sprint and there are not many left, I checked if its entered for the Nunthorpe but it ha sno entry it is entered in the Haydock Sprint over 6f but for me if its not going for the Nunthorpe then it has to end up having a pop at the Abbeye.
Now at present this horse is only rated 109 and has been beaten a few times lately but in all honesty it has by its run in the King Stand took its form to a new level and then the run at Sandown was an excellent one if you watch it carefully, it really is an improved sort and whatsmore its also very quick, the sprinters as we got to see on Saturday are a much of a muchness so keep an eye on this and try to get a big price for the abbeye, I tell you its got an excellent chance as its not yet peaked and has a tonne of improvement, a real speedster, the key to its improvement is not oly the King Stand but the sandown race when it got beat, watch that race carefully and look to the abbeye for a real good ante post and ew bet.
Now at present this horse is only rated 109 and has been beaten a few times lately but in all honesty it has by its run in the King Stand took its form to a new level and then the run at Sandown was an excellent one if you watch it carefully, it really is an improved sort and whatsmore its also very quick, the sprinters as we got to see on Saturday are a much of a muchness so keep an eye on this and try to get a big price for the abbeye, I tell you its got an excellent chance as its not yet peaked and has a tonne of improvement, a real speedster, the key to its improvement is not oly the King Stand but the sandown race when it got beat, watch that race carefully and look to the abbeye for a real good ante post and ew bet.
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You've made some very good posts on here Manuel, but this is pie in the sky stuff. Medicean Man is a passive runner who needs a strong pace up front which forces the pace horses to collapse so that he can stay on and pick up the pieces. This is why he has had success at Ascot, as there are usually competitive fields and an uphill finish. In the abbaye, the front runners don't tend to tire as quickly and it has been very hard to come from off the pace. Even so, I don't think he's good enough anyway. He's only ever won handicaps. Better horses don't fade as quickly.
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Firstly thanks for the compliment regarding past posts, this though is far from Pie in the sky, this is a very qucik horse, its improving, if you look at its King Stand run how far away from the top of the tree is he really, there is no stand out at all in the sprint division and hey look at Mayson that says it all.
There is no crystal ball but this view does have substance if you look closely enough, the newmarket run was decent over 6f which is not his best and with the uphill finish over 6f not helping, if he was to win over 6f it maybe the Haydock Sprint, look back at Abbeye results and you will see anything is possible, that Sandown run is the one i like the most, drawn terribly in a competitive race, nowhere to go and finishes hard held, there just is not that much between top sprints and group sprints and he is improving, who knows we shall see, its not like i am putting up a even money favourite but he does have the ability to win a group one in my opinion, Prohibit was a handicapper and he turned the corner late on also as an example. regards, manuel |
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Obviously no odds yet, but certainly not the worst bet in the world.
However Longchamp is a pretty quick 5F and I don't think that plays to MM's strengths. I backed him AP for the Wokingham and I now think his ideal distance is 5.5F Actually would love to see Hamish go for the Abbaye - think he would be perfectly suited to the race and course |
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Hamish is another prime example of a horse that is group three at best on form but would we all fall over if he turned up and won the abbeye, look at last years result Tangerine Trees beats Secret Asset, so if people think that horse like Medician Man or Hamish cannot win a race like the abbeye then in order to change that view your just need to look at the top sprints over the last few years and also the abbeye itself.
I would rather have 100-1 for Medician Man or Hmaish than 5-1 for Bated Breath in that race thats for sure, its all about value for me and horses with a chance and if your getting one thats showing an improved level of form then all the better as both these horse have done so far this season and strangely had Mayson also. Its all opinion but also dont forget the value point. Manuel |
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Manuel i backed Medicean Man for the Kings stand as he felt he would outrun his odds due to the prevailing conditions (fast pace and stiff finish, quite similar to Prohibit the year before in many ways) but i agree with Howellsy the horse simply hasnt shown enough on flat quick tracks to suggest it would get near winning the Abbaye. Prohibit was a handicapper but 6 months before winning a G1 he was showing very smart form in Dubai and 4 weeks before was a fast finishing 3rd in the Temple behind proven G1 performers. It was reasonable to assume that if he ran a similar race at ascot, and overdose, tangerine trees et al took each other on up front again that he might get there before the line.
Totally agree with your methodology - i think there are some juicy prices to be had with improving top class sprint handicappers in group races. For me though they have to have their conditions. If Hamish is drawn on the rail at longchamp, there is a bit of cut in the ground and its previous run(s) are satisfactory (or its price is) i think you would have to give it a chance. Im pretty certain Medicean man wont be winning it though. |
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Well Mackies a good post and i respect your opinion, its a long way off and its jjust a feeling i got adfter the sandown race, he may not even go, he may fall way short, but i tell you this if he was mine he would be prepped for it and give it a go as there is no stand out against him and other similar handicappers.
best wishes, Manuel ps onto the next bit of value to be found now |
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See Hamish confirmed being aimed at Abbaye - so wish there was a market. If he goes and gets drawn close to the rail, convinced he will go very, very close
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Anyone care to take a close look at just what gets in the shake-up in your average Abbaye?
Invariably the winners are worse than many of the also rans! I grew up remembering the class acts like Moorestyle, Marwell, Sharpo, Habibti and later Dayjur, and the last couple of decades has seen some dreadful sprinters who wouldn't be within a stone of the aforementioned handful. Since Lochsong won it in 1994, the only proper sprinter to have won it is Marchand d'Or, though I suppose I'd have to include Agnes World as well because like the French grey, he also followed up in the July Cup. In the future, I think the race's group one status could be in serious jeopardy if come October, there are only two REAL group one performers to have won this in TWENTY renewals! It's getting desperate and ANYTHING is in with a shot - I'm surprised some of the Aussie handicappers don't have a go at this! As much as I don't like Medicean Man, it's likely that a sprinter of his ilk will be at the very least, bang there! |
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I totally agree with the general points being made on this thread about the race, and I'd definitely be giving Hamish a shout given a decent draw. However, if you look at Medicean man's win record he does seem to have found his niche at Ascot, which is a very different track to Longchamp. Nevertheless, I also agree in principle that value is the key and who knows, there could be an absolute burn up this year up front and something could win from the mid div.
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Well stage one has been accomplished as my little abbeye horse has been entered for the race at one of the latter stages, cant get prices just yet, but at least stage one is done
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Hi Manuel don't know where you have seen the entries but can you confirm that Hamish is also entered
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Roo - I messaged Manuel with his good news...here are the other acceptors;
http://www2.france-galop.com/fgweb/Domaines/Courses/course_detail.aspx?aaCrse=2012&spCrse=P&numCrsePgm=01035 Your old friend Hamish is there too  |
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Cheers navel, that's great. Now you have been known to lay horses....50s?
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I was speaking to Manuel earlier, and although I don't fancy it at all, I haven't got a book on it so I WON'T be laying it!
In fact...I'll contradict myself and if there's a three figure price available when the market opens (which is feasible) I'll actually be backing it!  When I lay horses, I don't do so individually...I lay them collectively at the shorter prices, as I'm a cowardly 'green merchant'  |
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Obviously things can change in a couple of weeks but it actually looks a much stronger than usual entry though I'd imagine a few will wait for Ascot
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Manuel has seen something that I haven't/can't despite watching the replays, but I think it's significant that at the first two entry stages, Medicean Man wasn't there, so I'm assuming he's been supplemented.
Also, as he hasn't raced for a while and missed about six eminently plausible targets, connections could be priming it for the Abbaye, and after what I've posted about how 'classless' the average winner has been over the last 20 years, I'd look pretty silly laying it for buttons whilst potentially having a big liability - in that case...I don't mind throwing a few quid at a rag (at huge prices) for possible big profits. I'm sure you guys have seen on here...Manuel know his stuff and it's not often we're at different ends of the scale. Something similar happened a few years ago that I couldn't see and he put me onto a rag at 200/1 SP (didn't use Betfair then so I'd assume it was a lot bigger) that was third at the Cheltenham festival, and I backed it E/W. |
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Navel I'm not particularly interested in MM either but I take your point about Manuel and if its anywhere near 3 figures I'll throw a few quid at it as well.
Hamish is, as I said earlier, the one I'm very interested in for this at hopefully a very decent price |
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Roo - he had a pumped fist when I told him Medicean Man had been supplemented
 Hamish is EXACTLY the type that has been on the premises over the years and is a far better proposition, though I couldn't envisage treble figure odds about him. Surely everyone at some time has threw a couple of quid on a massive outsider at someone else's urgings? I didn't listen to him a few years back when Flashman's Papers won at Royal Ascot and he'd pleaded with me to back it at 100/1 - it was around 370 on here and I was gutted  For the sake of a small stake, I won't let it happen again. |
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My idea of a real sporting outsider in the Abbaye is Wizz Kid if she gets her ground.
She travels well, has a potent finishing burst, and is seemingly well held on the form book which should ensure a decent price - given cut in the ground she could be bang on the premises, and her last two disappointments can easily be overlooked. Really looking forward to seeing how this is priced up and I'm praying for some soft ground for the Arc meeting, as I have a few friends on my side that could provide an upset. |
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I like Wizz Kid as well, but she has cost me a few quid this year. However she may not be the best of travellers apparently so that might be the reason for her poor form. Not sure she will be that much of an outsider however.
Sole Power will surely be favourite and if he raced closer to the pace he would take an awful lot of beating. The Abbaye will never suit the way he ran at Donny and he was clearly the best horse in last year's renewal. Spirit Quartz is also likely to be bang there. |
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Roo - I'm under no delusions that I'll be getting a three figure price on here for Wizz Kid, but if there was a book out right now, I could see her being a 20/1 shot as there are horses like Bated Breath, Sole Power & Mayson (on July cup form) around that she HAS TO be longer than in the market.
I like to find value by excusing disappointments, having been impressed on a prior occasion or two, and I like the way she really quickened well at Chantilly over 5f - another one in that race (Noble Hachy) was very highly rated and as we haven't seen him for a while, he might have had excuses - he looked to have had that race sewn up (probably traded very short) has terrific speed and might be better than he's shown so far. I don't know what it is about that Longchamp 5f track, but it's very difficult to peg back the leaders, and as you mentioned...Sole Power was desperately unfortunate last year. From memory, I think only Marchand d'Or has won this from out the back over the last couple of decades, and a wide draw makes things even more difficult! It's turned into a weird race over the years  |
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I actually think a wide draw would be better for Sole Power at Longchamp - inside draw would give him massive traffic problems like last year and if he was drawn wide his price would be better as well.
It seems to me that the race is almost like a 4.5F race and that's why its so beneficial to be front rank. It seems almost as if those normal strong finishers just run out of time. Funnily enough that's why I don't see it as the right race for MM |
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I get your point about Sole Power and a wide draw, but if the ground is slow, he'll have his work cut out.
As I mentioned earlier...pegging back the front-rank bums is very difficult on this track, and maybe one reason could be that there are no furlong markers! The jockeys must use the trees as their points of reference WTF are the French up to? Surely this can't be too difficult to address? |
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Agreed if its worse than good in this company forget SP
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I guess Manuel is now pleased there wasn't an early market.
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Manuel - he's entered in a listed race on Saturday at Ascot over 5f, with good/soft ground expected...maybe his trainer thinks Longchamp would be a bridge too far?
They may well be his optimal conditions and he could be worth keeping an eye on, even though he's not been seen for three months. |
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Wizz Kid and Hamish in the 22 that remain.
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Have got to say after the first two books have priced up I was expecting slightly bigger than 12s
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Roo - 12's for Sole Power?
Considering the defectors, even on softer ground that deemed unsuitable, I think that's huge! He's the best horse in the race (no Bated Breath I notice) and just because he's mostly raced (and shown his best form) on faster surfaces, there's no real evidence to suggest he WON'T go on the ground. I'm guessing if he's not favourite then possibly Mayson is? Also, I doubt there'll be any fancy prices about Wizz Kid now, with the ground in her favour. |
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Roo - nothing on Oddschecker...where are these prices?
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No Navel not SP - Hamish. PP have now priced up and he is 16s with them....better.
I love SP but ground I fear will be too soft and at the moment he is best priced 11/2. Wizz Kid is best priced 14s so far and that's about the price I expected |
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I got them from Oddschecker Navel....
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That's certainly good value for Wizz Kid...hopefully I'll find a bigger price
 As much as Hamish fits the bill for this race, he doesn't have the touch of class of Sole Power - any thoughts about the ground for him? As I said...there's no definitive evidence he won't go on it, but with such concerns he could go for a walk in the market. Bated Breath retired to stud That's a crazy decision as he's not injured as far as I'm aware - he was well capable of winning a group one, and I think that's very premature. |
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You are right, he isn't a 'classy' horse like SP. I think actually he would prefer good ground, though G/S or perhaps soft won't inconvenience him too much.
The problem at Longchamp for SP is his run style. The ground obviously is a concern but everything wants to be on the near side and as SP is a closer he will always be subject to traffic problems. His price makes it difficlt to therefore back him as the reward doesn't outweigh that risk As much as anything that's why I like such a genuine horse like Hamish for this particular race as given a decent draw he will close to the pace from the off. Wizz Kid is another who does her best work at the finish. However she will like soft ground and her price does make more appeal. |
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I wish there had been an ante-post market on this race over the months, as 14/1 with conditions in Wizz Kid's favour, and many defections would have made it possible she'd have traded at huge prices on here, especially as faster ground was thought very likely until recently.
Nevertheless, I'll be all over her (happy with that price) and I'll hope to snatch a big price about Sole Power too - he's sure to lengthen. PS - that Noble Hachy I mentioned earlier in the thread isn't amongst the acceptors which is a blow  |
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Navel I will be backing both Hamish and WK. Ideally hoping that Hamish gets a rail draw and that WK gets one in the middle.
Do you know when the final decs and draw are for this race? |
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It should be tomorrow AM, but The Headmaster seems more conversant with what goes on in Europe than I am.
I'm starting to hallucinate about a double digit price for Sole Power as there will be plenty who'll doubt his prospects on softer ground. Here's what's left at the moment; http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=565150&r_date=2012-10-07#raceTabs=lc_ |
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Ok if he goes double figures I will also back SP....what are you taking by the way?
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If he's double figures I'll definitely be on!
Given good ground, he'd be 11/4 fav, so if he's 10/1+ I won't be able to pass it up, especially as it's a toss of a coin if he goes in the soft. He should've pissed up last year...he was by far & away the best horse in the race. I just have an inkling he'll drift as surely everyone knows how difficult it is to win the Abbaye from off the pace, and ally that to him running on perceived unfavourable going, he's likely to go for a walk - as someone else mentioned...if being drawn wide, that would be seen as another disadvantage but that might prove beneficial. Wizz Kid will come from off the pace too so it could be difficult for both, but if the combined odds of the pair are around 11/2, I think that's a cracking bet, as they're the class in the race - I'm very suspicious about the July Cup form in that quagmire, so Mayson isn't too much of a concern. |