Horse Antepost
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12 Jul 12
22:07
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Date Joined:
03 Feb 11
This is a wide open race and as such I have tried to look for a horse with built in value whose price is bigger than it should be and who also has form to put it in the picture and that horse is AIDEN O BRIENS, REPLY.
First example on the value aspect is that this horse is the same price as The Cheka and yet Reply has been beaten recently twice by around a length in group one races and yet the cheka got turned over in group two class.
Next reason for optimism is that if you forget the horses last run then what price would it be in this race it wouldnt be anything like 33-1, we can forget its last run because the horse was knocked all over the place in that race.
Ok so what else, well lets not forget that they had a number of horses entered in this including two fairly high profile ones and yet the stable have left this one in on its own and furthermore they have thrown the visor on.
Its also got that potential to improve as a 3yo and this time of year is not that bad for the youngsters to take on the older horses.
Also if you look at its form you will see that it stays further but has the pace for this and there is a little bit of form early on last year when beating Slade Power 4L and that things now rated 108, its also finished second in the group one Middle Park and only beaten a length.
Perhaps a fastly run stiff 6f with an uphill finish on ground with cut may just help this one.
Its an ew selection and is 33-1 so its my view only and i do believe the price will go as its far to high.
again, best wishes.
Manuel, nearly put Bahoor then, hmmmm forgetting where I am.
First example on the value aspect is that this horse is the same price as The Cheka and yet Reply has been beaten recently twice by around a length in group one races and yet the cheka got turned over in group two class.
Next reason for optimism is that if you forget the horses last run then what price would it be in this race it wouldnt be anything like 33-1, we can forget its last run because the horse was knocked all over the place in that race.
Ok so what else, well lets not forget that they had a number of horses entered in this including two fairly high profile ones and yet the stable have left this one in on its own and furthermore they have thrown the visor on.
Its also got that potential to improve as a 3yo and this time of year is not that bad for the youngsters to take on the older horses.
Also if you look at its form you will see that it stays further but has the pace for this and there is a little bit of form early on last year when beating Slade Power 4L and that things now rated 108, its also finished second in the group one Middle Park and only beaten a length.
Perhaps a fastly run stiff 6f with an uphill finish on ground with cut may just help this one.
Its an ew selection and is 33-1 so its my view only and i do believe the price will go as its far to high.
again, best wishes.
Manuel, nearly put Bahoor then, hmmmm forgetting where I am.
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probably wants goodish ground but so does Bated Breath who would leave the Checka standing on good or firmer ....but the ground is not good it is soft ,what is his best performance on Soft ?
You raise a valid point regarding the ground, its something to be seen but dont forget that this kind of thing is built into the price of 33-1, we dont however have enough information to make a conclusive decision, was beaten 4l in a group one on good to soft, there will be negatives for all the horses but then sometimes it is better to look at the positives,in my opinion at least, hey he is 33-1 so that alone suggests he is up against it, but there are many positives as i pointed out in the initial post for a horse of that price, his price will go
he has got super form on good ground ,probably as strong as anything in the field with the exception of Sepoy and Strong suit , you may be on to something .It will all depend on the weather gl
agree manuel this is overpriced this stables pacemakers are useually this kind of price and the positives outweigh the negatives good luck, i am on !
bubble well and truly popped and reply ran a stinker and as a lot of posters noted the ground just got to bad for him, still cant win them all, bit of a joke group one when you think and the really bad ground changed everything, Mayson wins by 5L says it all i guess, well done king with the cheka being placed
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