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Anaglogs Daughter
11 Jul 12 22:33
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John Gosden's Gatewood installed  Joint Fav

July 12, 2012
Michael Sharkie


EXCITING English stayer Gatewood has been installed as joint favourite for this year's Melbourne Cup after news that Victorian-based OTI Racing has added the four-year-old to its growing arsenal of spring carnival contenders.

While competitors fight over the limited supply of European staying horses already qualified for the Caulfield and Melbourne cups, OTI has elected to target less-exposed horses in an attempt to avoid the crush at the head of the European market, with Gatewood a perfect example of the type of horse they have sought.

''I've loved the horse for a while now and tried to buy him outright twice but was knocked back,'' OTI director Terry Henderson said yesterday.

''I spoke to [trainer John] Gosden again at Royal Ascot and he told me that the horse's owner, George Strawbridge, was interested in bringing the horse to Melbourne and wanted to know if we would be interested to do it with him. We jumped at the chance to buy a 50 per cent stake.''
Considered to be one of the most promising handicap stayers in Britain, Gatewood has won four of his six starts and achieved a career peak when winning the listed Wolferton Handicap (2000 metres) at Royal Ascot. Despite his sparkling form, Gatewood is yet to pass the first ballot clause for the Melbourne Cup and must win a group or listed race at 2300 metres or beyond, or place at group level at that distance do so.

But so lofty is his reputation in Europe that Sportsbet immediately installed Gatewood as joint Melbourne Cup favourite alongside Lucas Cranach, on the strength of reports from analysts at parent company Paddy Power.

''Our form analysts hold Gatewood in the highest regard and on their recommendation we had to put him at the head of the market,'' said Sportsbet's Matt Campbell. ''He's going to be a fascinating runner if he can qualify for the race.''

Usually a horse of Gatewood's promise would not be available for purchase but Henderson believes OTI's track record of dealing with European owners and agents helped to secure the deal.

''It certainly helps when you have had successful relationships with owners like Earle Mack,'' he said. ''We raced in partnership with him and some Europeans consider him difficult to deal with. We also raced Bauer on a half-share with success so we've got a good track record.''

Henderson said profiteering by some Australian agents who were buying and on-selling European stayers was a worrying trend, and one that had forced up the asking price of cups-qualified horses to incredible levels as European connections attempt to compensate for the discrepancy between sale and syndication prices.

Intense competition for qualified horses has also forced prices to new peaks, making it largely uneconomical to buy at that end of the market.

''Some of it just makes no sense,'' Henderson said. ''Some of these guys will just pay anything for a horse and then on-sell for big profits. The fellows over there [Europe] aren't silly and they see what these guys are on-selling for.''

Gatewood joins an exceptionally strong team of European and New Zealand-bred stayers owned by OTI, which includes Australian Cup winner Manighar, Queensland Derby winner Brambles, French group 2 winner Prairie Star, recent English group race placegetters Ibicenco and Quest For Peace, and lightly raced European three-year-olds Police Gazette, Martinvast and Studio.

Although not all will be targeted towards this year's Caulfield and Melbourne cups, OTI's imports remain poised to have a significant impact on the spring carnival


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/oti-strengthens-spring-arsenal-with-gatewood-20120711-21w95.html#ixzz20M7S8GGp
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Report Anaglogs Daughter October 20, 2012 6:38 AM BST
1.5kg around 3lb
Report bazzar October 20, 2012 6:42 AM BST
Thanks Anaglogs.
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 20, 2012 7:11 AM BST
Melbourne star Dunaden claims Caulfield Cup
By Nicholas Godfrey raicngpost.com 20 OCT 2012 Report: Australia, Saturday

Caulfield: BMW Caulfield Cup (Group 1 hcap) 1m4f, turf, 3yo+

LAST year's Emirates Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden (Mikel Delzangles/Craig Williams) flew home from miles back to claim the BMW Caulfield Cup for France.

Australian-trained pair Alcopop and Lights Of Heaven took second and third from Americain and the Luca Cumani-trained My Quest For Peace.

Dunaden, who also won the Geelong Cup in 2011, was taking his record in Australia to three out of three for Sheikh Fahad's Pearl Bloodstock as he overcame the widest draw in a 18-runner field.

Craig Williams dropped him in last of all from the gate and the six-year-old still had just two behind him as they left the final turn before being switched out wide and taking the race with a tremendous charge down the straight to overwhelm Alcopop.

"Wow - this is a remarkable horse," said Williams, who could not ride Dunaden in the Melbourne Cup owing to suspension, leaving Christophe Lemaire to take over.

Dunaden, the third European-trained winner of the Caulfield Cup after Taufan's Melody (1998) and All The Good (2008), can now expect a penalty before defending his Melbourne Cup - for which he is now favourite in Australian lists.

"He's had a heard race here with a big weight so I hope he doesn't get too much weight for the Melbourne Cup," said Williams.

"He's an amazing horse and we seem to have a great connection," added the jockey, in the saddle when Dunaden won in Geelong and Hong Kong, and also when he was sixth behind Danedream in the King George.

Alcopop, who hit the front a furlong out, was clear second from Lights Of Heaven with 2010 Melbourne Cup hero Americain, who shared top-weight with the winnerm, staying on for fourth in promising fashion.

My Quest For Peace (who raced as just Quest For Peace in Britain) also showed up pretty well, though he had the run of the race on the rail just off the pace set by heavily fancied Glencadam Gold.

Although the Cumani runner briefly showed in front as they entered the straight, he was swamped by the principals, while the Marco Botti-trained Jakkalberry was caught wide throughout before fading to finish 13th.

>>>Gatewood was a non-runner, not making it off the reserve list.
Report DoesntMatter October 20, 2012 12:20 PM BST
If Dunaden can give 11 lbs to Mount Athos ... well a) I'll be suprised & impressed and b) he will deserve a second Cup
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 20, 2012 7:40 PM BST
Dunaden's hefty task

Date October 21,

Andrew Eddy

Racing Editor for The Age


FABULOUS French galloper Dunaden entered the record books yesterday when he became the first original topweight to win the Caulfield Cup, but he will have to extensively re-write history if he is to win a second Melbourne Cup in 16 days.

No horse since the metric system was introduced in 1972 has been able to carry more than 58.5 kilograms to win the Melbourne Cup but that is the task that faces Dunaden, who is certain to attract a penalty for yesterday's remarkable win. He already has 58 in the $6.2 million race but looks certain to be allocated at least another kilogram.

But after yesterday's run - in front of a crowd of 36,809 that was up more than 6000 on last year - when he unleashed a jaw-dropping sprint to overhaul South Australian Alcopop near the line, few would doubt he can do it. His jockey, Craig Williams, said as much after collecting his second consecutive Caulfield Cup. ''History is going to show that he can't do it - carry that sort of weight - but he's just an amazing horse,'' he said.

Bookmakers agreed. Despite the record books telling them that only Think Big (58.5kg in 1975) and the three-time winner Makybe Diva (58kg in 2005) have carried 58 or more to win, Dunaden was last night installed as the $6.50 favourite to become the first horse to win two Melbourne Cups and a Caulfield Cup in between.

Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter will announce a penalty tomorrow but said that many factors came into play when assessing Dunaden. ''Notably, he will have horses like Mount Athos and Green Moon waiting for him there so it will be a new challenge from today,'' he said.

In England, there were some shouts for joy in the early hours as although Dunaden's owner, Sheikh Fahad al-Thani, could not be in Melbourne because of world's best horse Frankel's final start at Ascot overnight, he clearly enjoyed the victory. His racing manager, David Redvers, tweeted: ''Just had Sheikh Fahad call me in shock and possibly tears.''

But while Dunaden and fourth-placed French star Americain, who finished the race without his front shoes, furthered their cause for a second Melbourne Cup win, the dream is over for several of the beaten horses yesterday.

For the second week in a row, Gai Waterhouse saddled the feature race favourite and again things did not go her way. Jockey Jim Cassidy said the $4.40 favourite, Glencadam Gold, who was unbeaten in four previous runs in Sydney, changed stride a few times in the run but was disappointing as his run finished at the top of the straight. He struggled into 15th. His place at Flemington is now in doubt and he was out to $41 in the latest market.

The $7 second favourite, December Draw, continued a nightmare run in Caulfield Cups for trainer Mark Kavanagh. December Draw ranged up on the home turn to take the lead after taking an on-speed role. ''But he just didn't stay the trip,'' jockey Michael Rodd said.

Corey Brown, who replaced Damien Oliver on fifth-placed My Quest For Peace, said that Dunaden and Americain were not the only imports who would challenge in the Melbourne Cup. ''Once he gets to Flemington and he's got a lot longer to chase and can get into his rhythm on the big track, I don't think he'll have any problems with the two miles.''

Dom Tourneur, who rode brave runner-up Alcopop, who looked certain to win at the 200-metre mark, said: ''He put his heart and soul into it but unfortunately he was beaten by the best mile-and-a-half horse in the world.''

Nick Hall will miss Wednesday's Geelong Cup and the Cox Plate meeting after he was suspended for careless riding on Electric Fusion in the Norman Robinson Stakes.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/dunadens-hefty-task-20121020-27yjq.h...
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 20, 2012 7:58 PM BST
Dunaden's hefty task

Date October 21, 2012


Andrew Eddy Racing Editor for The Age

FABULOUS French galloper Dunaden entered the record books yesterday when he became the first original topweight to win the Caulfield Cup, but he will have to extensively re-write history if he is to win a second Melbourne Cup in 16 days.

No horse since the metric system was introduced in 1972 has been able to carry more than 58.5 kilograms to win the Melbourne Cup but that is the task that faces Dunaden, who is certain to attract a penalty for yesterday's remarkable win. He already has 58 in the $6.2 million race but looks certain to be allocated at least another kilogram.

But after yesterday's run - in front of a crowd of 36,809 that was up more than 6000 on last year - when he unleashed a jaw-dropping sprint to overhaul South Australian Alcopop near the line, few would doubt he can do it. His jockey, Craig Williams, said as much after collecting his second consecutive Caulfield Cup. ''History is going to show that he can't do it - carry that sort of weight - but he's just an amazing horse,'' he said.

Bookmakers agreed. Despite the record books telling them that only Think Big (58.5kg in 1975) and the three-time winner Makybe Diva (58kg in 2005) have carried 58 or more to win, Dunaden was last night installed as the $6.50 favourite to become the first horse to win two Melbourne Cups and a Caulfield Cup in between.

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Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter will announce a penalty tomorrow but said that many factors came into play when assessing Dunaden. ''Notably, he will have horses like Mount Athos and Green Moon waiting for him there so it will be a new challenge from today,'' he said.

In England, there were some shouts for joy in the early hours as although Dunaden's owner, Sheikh Fahad al-Thani, could not be in Melbourne because of world's best horse Frankel's final start at Ascot overnight, he clearly enjoyed the victory. His racing manager, David Redvers, tweeted: ''Just had Sheikh Fahad call me in shock and possibly tears.''

But while Dunaden and fourth-placed French star Americain, who finished the race without his front shoes, furthered their cause for a second Melbourne Cup win, the dream is over for several of the beaten horses yesterday.

For the second week in a row, Gai Waterhouse saddled the feature race favourite and again things did not go her way. Jockey Jim Cassidy said the $4.40 favourite, Glencadam Gold, who was unbeaten in four previous runs in Sydney, changed stride a few times in the run but was disappointing as his run finished at the top of the straight. He struggled into 15th. His place at Flemington is now in doubt and he was out to $41 in the latest market.

The $7 second favourite, December Draw, continued a nightmare run in Caulfield Cups for trainer Mark Kavanagh. December Draw ranged up on the home turn to take the lead after taking an on-speed role. ''But he just didn't stay the trip,'' jockey Michael Rodd said.

Corey Brown, who replaced Damien Oliver on fifth-placed My Quest For Peace, said that Dunaden and Americain were not the only imports who would challenge in the Melbourne Cup. ''Once he gets to Flemington and he's got a lot longer to chase and can get into his rhythm on the big track, I don't think he'll have any problems with the two miles.''

Dom Tourneur, who rode brave runner-up Alcopop, who looked certain to win at the 200-metre mark, said: ''He put his heart and soul into it but unfortunately he was beaten by the best mile-and-a-half horse in the world.''

Nick Hall will miss Wednesday's Geelong Cup and the Cox Plate meeting after he was suspended for careless riding on Electric Fusion in the Norman Robinson Stakes.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/dunadens-hefty-task-20121020-27yjq.h...
Report MrDinos October 20, 2012 9:44 PM BST
Dom Tourneur, who rode brave runner-up Alcopop, who looked certain to win at the 200-metre mark, said: ''He put his heart and soul into it but unfortunately he was beaten by the best mile-and-a-half horse in the world.''

They really are Round The Twist Down Under, Dunaden the best mile-and-half horse in the world! LaughSilly

Talk about trying to make yourself feel better, another deluded jockey. I think he must have had a few Alcopop's before he said that!!!
Report FatoteSport October 20, 2012 11:56 PM BST
Who do you fancy for this Glogs?
Report ta1 October 21, 2012 11:20 AM BST
not far off mrdinos
Report MrDinos October 21, 2012 12:32 PM BST
Far enough ta1, I wouldn't put him in the top 10 on this seasons form. He is a top quality stayer that can perform to a good standard at 1m 4f! Beating some Aussie plodders doesn't make him the best horse in the world. Laugh
Report MrDinos October 21, 2012 9:44 PM BST
After much deliberation I've backed Galileos Choice at 20-1 EW with the Stoke City bookies, that price was too big for a Dermot Weld runner.

The form of some of the horses he's beaten over the last couple of years has worked out pretty well and he ticks a lot of boxes. The G3 he won at Leopardstown (10f) in 2011 he gave a lot of weight away to Mutahadee and Kissable and these two have ran very well this year in Graded races in Dubai and America respectively. The fact he won over 10f shows he has good speed as well as stamina which I think you need to have to win a Melbourne Cup.

He also won his last two races at Leopardstown beating Massiyn in his final start (G3). Massiyn upheld that form nearly winning the Irish St Leger with Aiken close behind. Aiken ran well again at Ascot yesterday in the Long Distance race.

Dermot Weld knows how to win this race and he looks to have a well weighted horse this year IMO. Having winning form on a left handed track is also a big positive!
Report ta1 October 22, 2012 11:19 AM BST
Galilieos should go close as long as it overcome its setback it had early on.

dunaden didnt get beaten far by danedream, also not far in the hardwick i think its called. did beat a few non aussies horses giving them weight.
people get caught up in the moment, nothing wrong with that,
just listen to teh Frankel talk. he is super horse but never travelled anywhere.
Report bazzar October 22, 2012 12:21 PM BST
The fact that FRANKEL didn't travel, MAY have been because of HENRY's
illness, another thing that comes to this observer, is that KHALID ABDULLAH
has great respect and admiration for HENRY and treats him as a personal
friend.
Report gamerawins October 22, 2012 2:53 PM BST
Hmmm it's fairly obvious that European Middle Distance and staying horses are significantly superior to those in Austrailia.

Dunaden the best 12f horse in the World?

He is a decent Group 2 horse, nothing more. If he ran in 10 standard European Group 1's at 12f he would do well to be placed in one of them. A proper Group 1 horse will always have 4 to 5 lengths minimum on him at this distance.

Absolutely every formline indicates that even at level weights that Mount Athos has the beating of Dunaden. Considering that he now has to give him 11 pounds it seems highly unlikely that the French horse can beat him. 16/1 prior to Caulfield was too big for sure but after winning it he should of drifted in price, not the other way. He showed nothing in Caulfield that he hadn't before. With the Cumani horse close up I'd say Luca is licking his lips as he knows Mount Athos is a superior animal to Quest for Peace. The onlt thing that can beat Mount Athos is the Montjeu factor. Although it didn't affect him in the race, he did sweat up at Newbury the last day. The heat and preliminaries in Flemington will be far in excess of anything he will have experienced before. I just hope he doesn't boil over. If he can avoid doing so and if Moore can get a reasonable run through then he wins if reproducing his bare English form. And that's not even taking into account the fact that he hasn't been tested at all in any race since joining Luca, plus he is bred to improve for the step-up (forget his running in English Ces last year as he is a different horse since joining the genius Cumani).

Really, Cumani is only starting to get to grips with this horse. Shows what a clown John Hills is, also doesn't paint D Watchman in a flattering light.

So yes, if they stay out of his way (not guaranteed) and if he doesn't fizz over (not guaranteed) then he wins.

Anyone know if Luca is out there yet? The sooner he gets there the better. I would like to know how the horse has acclimatized.
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 22, 2012 3:13 PM BST
Imports are putting Australian-bred runners to the test

by: Nathan Exelby
From:The Courier-Mail
October 23, 2012


ANOTHER big Cup, another Northern Hemisphere benefit.

Hot on the heels of imports filling the first seven places in last year's Melbourne Cup, three of the first five home in Saturday's Caulfield Cup carried a suffix pointing to their origins.

Tomorrow's Geelong Cup comprises a disappointing turnout of just seven runners, three of which are Europeans. Punters are bracing for a similar result in the Melbourne Cup in a fortnight.

So what has happened to the Australian stayer? Are they as bad as recent results suggest?

While traditionalists lament the Euro domination, it's worth noting Aus-breds have still won two of the past four Melbourne Cups. Viewed and Shocking held at bay a host of imports to stake their claim on history.

The best middle distance and staying horses from Australia (and New Zealand) have always been good enough to compete with the best. Horlicks and Better Loosen Up won Japan Cups, Elvstroem won a Group 1 in Dubai, Mummify won in Singapore and So You Think was a near champion in Europe.

It's just that our staying ranks lack depth. They probably always have, it's just that now with huge numbers of imports running here, that depth is being exposed more ruthlessly.

To truly get a grip on why locally bred stayers are being trounced by the Europeans, you need to understand the workings of the Australian breeding industry.

Aussie breeders pride themselves in being the speed kings of the world.

Choisir, Takeover Target, Miss Andretti, Scenic Blast and most notably Black Caviar all conquered Royal Ascot over the sprint courses. Hong Kong's International Sprint, which attracts speedsters from all corners of the globe, was taken out in its first 11 years by Aus-breds.

Black Caviar's ranking as the highest-rated sprinter ever is the accolade Aussie breeders strive for.

There have been attempts to boost the staying ranks in Australia. Breeders have had access to the finest middle distance horses in the world but, curiously, most have failed down here.

Galileo is on his way to becoming one of Europe's best sires, with his most notable runner being Frankel among a growing tally of 122 stakes winners. But in Australia, he was a relative failure, with nothing coming close to looking like a champion.

Commercial reality in Australia means breeders don't have an incentive to breed staying horses. Consider this. Golden Slipper winner Sebring's first yearlings averaged $116,362 in sales across Australia and NZ this year.

Yet progeny of Duke Of Marmalade, the Champion Older Horse of Europe over distances from 2000m to 2400m in 2008, averaged just $60,976. Similarly, it's dearer to buy a flashy son or daughter of Redoute's Choice than it is to buy one by Zabeel.

The marketplace would prefer to throw a dart at getting a colt that may make a valuable stallion than take the same risk on progeny of a sire that has produced four Cox Plate and three Melbourne Cup winners.

Our Kiwi cousins have had the wood on us in breeding horses that can run over a trip. But with Zabeel in his twilight years, many feel there's not a lot to be found in NZ. Hence, buyers are now looking north of the equator and in addition to the European-trained runners, we have a growing number of imports trained by Aussies.

The Caulfield Cup included six such horses; last year's Melbourne Cup seven. It's not a new phenomenon.

Melbourne Cup winners Beldale Ball (1980), At Talaq (1986) and Jeune (1994), the Cox Plate winner Almaarad (1989) and Caulfield Cup victors Fraar (1993) and Tawqeet (2006) all started life in the north before blossoming under the Hayes family's Lindsay Park regime.

It seems everyone has conceded the Melbourne Cup will again fall the way of an import, be it the Euro-trained Dunaden, Mount Athos and Americain, or the now Australian-owned Irish-bred Green Moon.

But don't give up. Don't forget Shocking and Viewed. Lights Of Heaven, the NZ-bred, Queensland-owned mare trained by Peter Moody turned in a cracking Cup trial on Saturday. It only takes one.

nathan.exelby@news.com.au
Report MrDinos October 22, 2012 7:20 PM BST
Track Notes Werribee International Horse Centre, Werribee, Monday 22 October 2012.
Information taken from racingvictoria.net.au


Americain - Trainer Alain de Royer Dupre

Trackwork: Slow canter for a lap then a strong canter over 2000 metres.

Assessment: Continues to improve and was very fresh after his work this morning.



Brigantin - Trainer Andre Fabre

Trackwork: Cantered for a lap then had a strong gallop over 1400m...

Assessment: Has progressed well and is ready for his Australian debut in Wednesday’s Geelong Cup.



Dunaden - Trainer Mike Delzangles

Trackwork: Walked around the compound but did not go onto the track.

Assessment: Is following the same after race routine as last year. Stable happy with the way he’s come out of the Caulfield Cup.



Galileo's Choice - Trainer Dermot Weld

Trackwork: Cantered strongly over 2000m having worked at Geelong on Saturday.

Assessment: Improving each day and looks on target for the Melbourne Cup.



Gatewood - John Gosden

Trackwork: Had an easy canter.

Assessment: Looks up to the mark and needs to win the Geelong Cup to confirm his place in the Melbourne Cup.



Ibicenco – Trainer Luca Cumani

Trackwork; Galloped wih Mount Athos over 1600 metres the reverse way of going.

Assessment: Looks well but we won’t get a true indication of his ability until the Moonee Valley Cup on Saturday.



Jakkalberry - Trainer Marco Botti

Trackwork: Walked and then had a slow canter after racing on Saturday.

Assessment: Some onlookers thought he would benefit from the run in the Caulfield Cup and looks to have taken no harm.



Mount Athos - Trainer Luca Cumani

Trackwork: Worked with Ibicenco over a circuit the reverse way of going,

Assessment: Continues to work well within himself. Looks on target for the Melbourne Cup.



Prairie Star - Trainer Danny O'Brien

Trackwork: Walked and trotted a lap and then had an easy canter over 2000 metres

Assessment: Improved a lot by his run last Saturday and will run in the Mackinnon or Lexus Stakes on Derby Day at Flemington.



My Quest For Peace - Trainer Luca Cumani

Trackwork: Another quiet morning after his prominent showing in the Caulfield Cup.

Assessment: Given time to get over his good run on Saturday before being wound up again for the Melbourne Cup.



Shahwardi - Trainer Alain de Royer Dupre

Trackwork: Worked the reverse way over 2000m.

Assessment: Looking very keen in his work.



Tac De Boistron - Trainer Mick Kent

Trackwork: Walked a lap and then had an easy canter over 1600m.

Assessment: Has progressed through two gallops at Geelong over the past 10 days and will return there Wednesday for the Cup.


Positive vibes coming from the Weld camp regarding Galileos Choice progression since arriving in Australia. He did sustain a knock traveling over from Ireland but he is a lot better now and working well!!!

I'm going to have another nibble, the Stoke City boys have pushed him out to 22-1 for some strange reason.
Report gamerawins October 23, 2012 12:41 AM BST
For sure Galileo's choice can go well and Weld in great form.

I do have some doubts about him though. I'm not sure he has improvement in him and I'm not sure he can beat the market leaders at 2 miles.

Many will disagree with this but Galileo progeny are actually not that durable in comparison to say Saddlers Wells progeny. Yes, they win classics and Group 1's but you don't see too many hardened handicappers by him who come back season after season. I'm talking about say 5 or 6 year old handicappers who have ran 30 plus times and have say 8 wins and another 8 placed efforts. There aren't really any Galileo's like this. Overall the progeny don't keep going year after year and very few hold their form as 5 or 6 year olds. They generally tend to stop progressing after a max of 12 runs or so, many of them before this. Okay the Group 1 and classic winners usually retire after about 10 runs but the one's who haven't often show a dip in form after about 10 runs, several Galileo Stakes winners have been kept on the go too long and subsequently gave the game up.

Galileo's Choice is 6 year old, has ran 16 times including 5 runs as a 3 year old. He was also favourite at Cheltenham and didn't run to form. In a real tough stamina test like this I'm not sure he can go through with it, just like he didn't at Cheltenham.

Just my opinion.
Report bazzar October 23, 2012 4:34 PM BST
An interesting viewpoint, which is the point of this forum, obviously you
have studied the offspring to come up with the conclusions that you have,
although I have never studied sire lines in depth, there MAY be something
in your viewpoint worth considering.
We wait for further evidence.
Report MrDinos October 23, 2012 8:00 PM BST
I agree with Baz, some interesting comments gamerawins but Galileo's Choice is hardly regressing, he has won his last four flat starts and some of the horses he's beaten over the last two years have won Graded races and got placed in Group 1's. As I posted earlier the form stands up pretty well and at the end of the day you need a Group class horse to win the Melbourne Cup not a handicapper!

Regarding his run at Cheltenham, I think you can forgive him that one because not every horse acts around there, also Dermot Weld has a shocking record at the Cheltenham Festival!!

All of Galileo's Choice's best wins have come at Leopardstown which is a big plus point and I think Flemington will be right up his street. I know the trip is 2 miles but I don't think it's a massive stamina test, a lot of horses that have performed well at 1m 2f to 1m 4f have ran well in the race over the years.

I respect Mount Athos's chances and he deserves to be near the head of the market, Cumani has worked his magic again but I like to look for some EW value and GC looked over priced.

All the Mount Athos fans will be hoping the rain stays away as well, if it comes up Soft I wouldn't be that confident regarding his chances.

Good luck with your bets!
Report Shiekh Me Hand October 23, 2012 8:20 PM BST
Are you ready for the worst piece of judgement in my gambling career...well, here goes:- 140/1 for the 7/1 fav and lays it off !! idiot!!

AUS / Flem (AUS) (ANTEPOST) 6th Nov / Melbourne Cup 2012    Mount Athos    Lay    1975465191    21-May-12
10:38         90    6.00        90    21-May-12 10:38   
    AUS / Flem (AUS) (ANTEPOST) 6th Nov / Melbourne Cup 2012 Mount Athos    Lay    1974181235    20-May-12
15:53         90    9.00        76.06    20-May-12 15:53   
    AUS / Flem (AUS) (ANTEPOST) 6th Nov / Melbourne Cup 2012 Mount Athos    Back    1972294204    19-May-12
14:46         140    8.98        140    19-May-12 14:46
Report gamerawins October 23, 2012 9:56 PM BST
Hi Dinos,

I know he is not a handicapper, he is a Group horse for sure but I was using the handicappers i.e. the mainstay bulk of any progeny, as an example of the lack of durability of Galileo progeny. All his best progeny are Group and Classic types most of which retire before durability issues come into play. The moral of the story being that up to now Galileo progeny have shown a distinct lack of durability and as a 6 year old I'm not sure this horse will do things mentally that he or other Galileo's will do at 3 or 4. He may have progressed physically but when push comes to shove has he progressed mentally? Enough to win a Melbourne Cup?

Also, while Galileo has sired Ledger winners (the surest signs of stamina in a sire line) many of them don't fulfill potential as stayers....after the 10 to 12 runs I mentioned. Those Ledger winners had few miles on the clock. Like my example of handicappers, look to the jumps game. Several fancy-ass Galileo's have worked the house down at home (including GC) and gone to Cheltenham and other big NH meetings strongly fancied and almost all of them have failed to deliver. There are a LOT of well-bred Galilleo's who have looked the part and gone to NH stables where they worked the house down and convinced shrewd trainers there was loads in the tank only to never reproduce it on the track. In ten years time count how many Galilleo's have been placed in Champion Hurdle, Coral Cup and County Hurdle. Won't be nearly as much as it should be ;) Again I'm talking about jumpers in context i.e. a guide to the progeny as a whole when trying to determine how a particular horse might perform when faced with a unique test at a particular stage in it's career i.e. GC in Melbourne Cup.

As for GC; I give him a big chance, he is for sure good value, he can for sure win. He stays for sure, I wouldn't doubt his inherent stamina being by G out of a Sir Ivor mare, I just think he may have resilience issues at this stage of his career if asked for a huge effort at 2 miles. It might not be a stiff 2 miles but it will still take a big effort to win it. I would of rathered see him go for this last year or the year before...before he had too much time to think about the game and it's ponderables.

As for his possible progression or regression; It's hard for me to explain exactly what I mean but let's say it wouldn't surprise me if he was down the field in Aus but came back next year and won a few nice Group 2's over 12f at Leopardstown in smaller fields when guts are less of an issue.

As for Mount Athos;  he likes it faster? Well, again I am going to be controversial and say that might not exactly be true. I have made a lot of money over the years by disregarding trainers (even the best ones) opinions when they say a horse doesn't act on a particular surface. If MA doesn't like a bit of give then he is a rarity among Montjeu offspring. Also his damn, Ionian Sea has produced several winners on soft to heavy ground, including Imperial Monarch (by Galileo) winner of this years Sandown Classic Trial on Heavy and a Group 1 in France on soft. Yes, MA has twice run on soft ground and was well beaten both times.....but but but this was when he was trained by John Hills. Excuse my manners but John Hills is a clown who knows nothing about horses, wouldn't train ivy up a wall! There are any number of possible reasons as to why a horse might not run to form if trained by John Hills. There are also any number of reasons as to why a horse might start winning races on faster going when trained by John Hills. It doesn't necessarily mean he needs it fast. I've seen it so so many times; A trainer expects a horse to run well and when he doesn't well it was the ground, "must of been the soft ground, jockey said he was never happy". Few horses are actually happy on soft, doesn't mean they won't race on it. The horse might of been unhappy for other reasons. (trust me, John Hills doesn't know why a horse might or might not be happy) Soon the horse starts winning on a faster surface and the conclusion is "he needs it fast". Not always true. Listen to me; the biggest guide to what surface a horse might like is it's breeding, not what any human tells you. Okay, if it's by say Pivotal (love soft) out of a Saddlers Wells (love soft) mare and has run bad 5 times on soft then yeah it's an exception but in this case two bad runs for John Hills mean nothing! You can disregard the horses previous showings as he has improved stones since coming to Luca. It is my contention that there is thus far little or no evidence to suggest that the horse won't act on a softer surface, in fact there is plenty of evidence (breeding breeding breeding)to suggest he will act on it, if he needs to.

I'll tell you one thing; if it comes up soft and he starts drifting then I'll be steaming in again!

Anyway, thank's for the feedback and opinion.

I respect your selection, Dinos. Just pointing out why I went elsewhere with my $$. I'm on at 12's 10's and 8's. Happy with that.

Also, just to clarify I'm Irish from Tipperary. Nothing against Coolmore or Galileo....but when backing horses there is no room for sentiment, just hard facts!
Report MrDinos October 23, 2012 10:38 PM BST
Some good stuff there gamerawins, I never really took to Galileo as a racehorse or sire betting wise, personal preference always pushed me to other horses for one reason or another but on this occasion I've been swayed. I like GC's style of racing and battling qualities on the flat, which sort of goes against your theory regarding Gelileo's older progeny. He wasn't stopping at Leopardstown last time out and he went for home a fair way out.

Nothing is set in stone with horse racing, not all Pivotal's like soft and not all Green Desert's like fast that's the beauty of this game, it's never easy! Montjeu didn't have a winner at Cheltenham for years then two go and win. Stats can be a good guide but not always accurate and can be broken! I like stats as well.

I can see where you are coming from regarding Mount Athos and Soft ground but it would worry me that he ran two stinkers on Soft ground. The chances of it being Soft ground are probably on the slim side anyway but it would be a negative for me! MA does look to have a serious chance and is one of the horses I'm worried about, he looked superb at York and Newbury.

As you say it's all opinions and I respect yours because you clearly know what your talking about.

All the best! Cool
Report gamerawins October 23, 2012 10:48 PM BST
Yeah, best of luck mate. It's a tough old game! All any of us are doing is looking for an edge!

Bottom line is it's a tough race to win. No point in getting sucked in too much. An 8/1 winner at Kempton tomorrow night will be just as sexy as backing a Melbourne Cup winner :)
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 24, 2012 11:43 AM BST
Shut the gate: British raider stakes claim for Cup

Date October 24, 2012
Michael Sharkie

British import Gatewood produces a brilliant turn of foot to take the group 3 Geelong Cup and potentially win his way into the Melbourne Cup.

GATEWOOD will attempt to become the fourth horse in 11 years to complete the Geelong Cup-Melbourne Cup double when he heads to Flemington in 12 days after sprinting to victory in yesterday’s crucial group 3 race.

The British-bred-and-trained stayer needed to win yesterday’s Geelong Cup to receive a sufficient penalty to elevate him into the final field for the Melbourne Cup and is expected to leap from 41st position on the order of entry after Racing Victoria’s general manager of racing Greg Carpenter announces a penalty of 1.5 or 2 kilograms today.

While Gatewood should enter the safe zone for a Cup start, the connections of chief rival and eventual third placegetter Brigantin must wait to see if their stayer can sneak into the final field as the horse is reliant on the attrition rate to climb from 30th on the order of entry.

For the connections of Gatewood, the prolific OTI Racing Syndicate, the victory was sweet revenge for a luckless Australian debut in the Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield when their horse was hopelessly held up for runs from the 800 metres, eventually running to the line untested.

There were no such concerns in the small field of seven yesterday however, as jockey Glen Boss sat outside the leader, Back In Black, on an extremely slow tempo before letting the John Gosden-trained five-year-old loose from the top of the straight.

“He ran the last 600m very, very quick, he was really quick through the line. They just went so slow up to that point it was always going to be a sprint home,” Boss said.

“He just plateaued for a furlong after he went but then he got going again and was so strong again at the finish. He’s a very nimble horse and that’s going to take him a long way at Flemington in a hustle and bustle race like the Melbourne Cup.”

The worst fears of the connections of Brigantin were realised when the horse was quickly pocketed away against the rails in third place, and from there the handsome chestnut was never able to threaten the winner, which was able to establish a winning break when the sprint went on, eventually staying on strongly into third just behind the Peter Moody-trained Chateau Margaux.

“We don’t see the real Brigantin today,” jockey Umberto Rispoli said. “It was not the race for him, the race was too slow. I just hope he can go into the Melbourne Cup because for sure the pace will be a little bit faster ... it can help him more than today. The horse run well and I’m happy about the horse.”

OTI Racing is no stranger to Geelong Cup success and won the race in 2008 with the Luca Cumani-trained Bauer, but the team is hoping for a better result than Bauer’s nose defeat in the Melbourne Cup when Gatewood steps out at Flemington.

“Today was just his 10th race start so he’s still learning his craft,’’ part-owner Simon O’Donnell said.

‘‘To run so well in two very different races in a foreign country when still so inexperienced gives us a lot of confidence that he is going to be really competitive for us at the top level for a longtime.”


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/shut-the-gate-british-raider-stakes-...
Report bazzar October 24, 2012 11:48 AM BST
For many years I have ignored what anybody has said about going preferences and
my theory is that MOST horses can cope with differences in going, unless they are the extremes, exceedingly heavy or very hard, the horse is a flight animal and in the era of
the dawn horse they had to cope with ALL sorts of terrain when fleeing from predators,
hence their ability to clear obstacles and why puny humans can boss them.
Just a theory I have held for many years, but these little nicks help me to keep ahead of the game, I think.
Size is not a criteria either, some great horses have been very small, so really it is about
heart and ability, DANEDREAM is a pony compared to most but she is exceptional.
Report roobuck October 24, 2012 2:57 PM BST
gamerawins - an interesting angle that you put forward.

However do you have any examples of horses that meet this theory? ie Galileo 5/6 year olds that have dogged it? Statistically is it very different from any other stallion of is it simply in focus purely because how good a stallion of stakes horses he is?

You draw comparison with Sadler's Wells but how many racing crops did he have? Galileo has only have had 4 crops that are now 6 including this year.

I don't have any evidence at all to disprove you - just would be wanting to have some to necessarily buy into your theory.
Report gamerawins October 24, 2012 7:35 PM BST
Okay, off the top of my head, as I'm not really a stats man and go by what I see day in day out in the form
book.

Some of the high profile Galileo's that have totally dogged it and given the game up;

Golden Lilac
New Approach
Sixites Icon
Lush Lashes
Roderick O Connor
Gan Amhras
Red Rocks
Treasure Beach
Seville (yes, he was recently 2nd in a Grade 1 in Aus but it was a donkey Derby in comparison to his 3 year old form in France)
Midas Touch

To answer your other questions, Roobuck; Again, these findings are not based on stats that one can find at the click of a mouse, they are based on observations gleaned from the form book over a period of years. "Statistically different from other stallions?" Not really. Many sires progeny show similar traits, though all are of course different. There are also examples of many by Montjeu who have chucked it. But overall it's a certain trend of Galileo's to not come back season after season. That is why I originally gave the example of the handicappers as they are the "backbone" of a progeny. Yes, of course he has thus far only a few crops in comparison to Saddlers Wells and of course many by SW dogged it too but they were tons of them that were hard as nails, year after year. It's my contention that Galileo has been around long enough to indicate that his progeny lack durability. Where are the 5 & 6 year old Handicap Hurdlers with 15 races on the flat and 15 over hurdles with 10 wins & 6 seconds bewteen both codes? Where are they? There should be loads of them, they have the ability, they have the size, they have the stamina, there are enough of them out there that have tried. Where are they? His best jumps horse has been the Nicholls horse (Celestial Halo)that won the Triumph and he has dogged it too, though to be fair to the horse, and probably mostly to his trainer, he did show better form at times last year. Also, strictly on the Flat there are not as many hardcore handicappers by G as there should be. The above list is of the good ones that chucked it, the Gosden, Bolger, Fabre & AP etc trained ones. If they can't keep the good ones going then what chance have the lesser trainers with the 90 and below rated horse?

"is it simply in focus purely because how good a stallion of stakes horses he is?". The answer to this question is no. Every horse I look at I know it's breeding before I know anything else about it. I give equal focus to every bloodline but as there are so many by G it's easier and quicker to spot things. After several years you start to notice trends developing ;) Takes a while though!

The moral of the story is; I would be very careful about backing a Galileo in a handicap or over jumps, especially when they start getting on a bit in age and have ran more than say 12 times. When I say this I'm talking in general and not necessarily specifically  about Galileo's Choice in Melbourne, I just don't like that it's at 2 miles, he is 6 and has flopped before when expected to win. Yes, M Cup is a handicap but it's not really what we consider a handicap as it takes a Group 2 horse (or better) to win it. You can back them to win Derbies and Group 1's, maybe even put the house on them, but when you start dropping down the class ladder be very careful. They will let you down!

Just one other thing; it's not all necessarily giving it up mentally, though for certain several of them have done that. It might be physical also sometimes.

Other recent examples are Nathaniel & Great Heavens. Yes, N had a problem recently and didn't exactly disgrace himself on Saturday and the filly should never of gone to France....nonetheless, neither looked happy to me, especially the colt. I'm telling you there is something slightly off with him, be it mental or physical I don't know but he's not in love with the game anymore.
Report roobuck October 24, 2012 8:53 PM BST
That's a really great post and you clearly know your stuff.

I won't go in to too much detail as its a thread about the Melbourne Cup after all and I would question a couple of horses you put up. As far as the NH is concerned I personally would pay no attention as it costs £200K+ to visit Galileo and so we are talking about the very best flat bloodlines - never automatically going to be in love with jumping a hurdle.

However I must ask how you came up with New Approach?
Report gamerawins October 24, 2012 9:29 PM BST
Haha fair enough after reminding myself of New Approach form he can hardly be accused. He was a brilliant horse who pulled like a train all the way round Epsom, it was the best Derby performance I have personally ever seen when one considers how crazy keen he was. Fair enough he held his form but by God he pulled so hard and definitely had temperment issues, even in the Guinneas he had the head to one side and basically lost it by being too keen, even at a mile. I doubt he could of sustained that attitude for much longer. But yeah he shouldn't be on that list. I just always had him in mind as a brilliant but tempermental beast. I know Bolger had huge problems conrtolling him at home and he got very agressive towards the end, unlike Frankel who calmed down as he got older.

I see your point about the NH but their should still be plenty of them about. I mean, all NH horses come from flat bred sires though to be fair Galileo didn't get any specific NH mares but still he did get many that should of been fine and done better at jumping.

Look at the flat. I would like to see the % of Galileo winners in handicaps on the flat. I don't have a stat but I have studied a lot of races, they don't win often and there are loads of them that should of done well. Nice looking horses, well bred as only top dams can afford the stud fee, invariably from a good yard as they have the owners who can afford them, nice types working well at home and expected to progress physically and mentally, apple of the trainers eye, so many of them go off as favourites, the "could be anything" tag. Could be a dog!

Stay away from them if they are not top class, especially if they have had a bad run or two, don't listen to the excuses or that it's thriving! Bookies drive Jaguars because of these types!

OK. As you said, this is about Melbourne Cup. Well off topic at this stage!
Report gamerawins October 24, 2012 9:59 PM BST
Just to expand a tiny bit further on the not bred for jumping theory; as I said, all NH horses come from flat bloodlines.

Look at Synchronised, winner of the last Gold Cup, by Saddlers Wells (American bred, hardly jumping stock!) out of a Bob Back mare, Bob Back was by Roberto who was also 100% American bred in Kentucky before coming to Baldoyle and coming 2nd in the Guinneas and winning Epsom Derby, all flat breeding.

Champion Hurdle winner Rock on Ruby, by Oscar (also by Saddlers Wells) out of a Tirol mare and Tirol was by the sprinter Thatching, sire of many a precocious 2 year old.

Not to mention The Giant Bolster, runner up to Synchronised in the Gold Cup and by Black Sam Bellamy who is a full brother to Galileo himself! and out of a Lomitas mare from German bloodlines indicating stamina but they don't jump any fences in Krautland ;)

For me the best example of all is a Turtle Island (Seabass) nearly winning the Grand National! That shocked me, every year we are going more and more for speed, in 20 years time there will be hardly any stoutly bred horses left. It's to compete for USA stud fees and they want speed, hence we can't beat US horses at sprints but thrash them over further. In 20 years the gaps in both spheres (sprinting & staying) will be smaller bewteen us and USA breeds.

So yeah, sorry again for the too long a post in the wrong thread but once I start I can't stop! I'm not trying to specifically disagree with what you said I'm just pointing out that I really believe it is significant regarding durability that his progeny are not doing as well as they might over the jumps. I think it's a good correlation based on facts.

Cheers mate. All the best.
Report MrDinos October 24, 2012 9:59 PM BST
Thought provoking stuff again gamerawins, I'm starting to get worried about my GC bets now!!! I had a look at his last two races again and he seems a pretty straightforward horse who likes a good gallop. Maybe he is one Galileo who wont spit the dummy out, well that's what I'm hoping for!

The one horse who is nagging away at me at a big price is Jakkalberry! The weight he has to carry is the main negative but apart from that he looks like he could improve a bit running over a longer trip. He didn't seem to handle the tight track at Caulfield and I think Flemington will suit him a lot better. His two runs earlier in the season at Meydan were pretty decent, especially when staying on well from the back for third in the Sheema Classic. That form would put him in the mix and at 50-1 I might have a dabble, probably wait till the day of the race because he wouldn't want Soft ground.
Report gamerawins October 24, 2012 10:19 PM BST
Jakkalberry has a squeak for sure and is too big a price. Hard to see him actually win it though.
Report MrDinos October 24, 2012 10:30 PM BST
Yep, your probably right gamer. Another EW one for me, the price is too big!!!
Report roobuck October 24, 2012 10:43 PM BST
Anyway happy with the play on Gatewood providing he gets in.....but he's by Galileo LaughCry
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 25, 2012 11:58 AM BST
Gatewood gets 1kg(2.2lb) Melbourne Cup penalty

October 25, 2012 -
Andrew Eddy Racing Editor for The Age

Wednesday's Geelong Cup winner Gatewood is all but out of the running for a place in the November 6 Melbourne Cup after rising just five places to 36th in order after he was given just a kilogram penalty today.

The John Gosden-trained stayer needed to attract a 1.5kgs or even two kilogram penalty to make it into the Melbourne Cup’s final field of 24 and now looks likely to be stranded outside the field unless there is a rash of injuries to fellow contenders.

The past two Melbourne Cup winners Americain (2010) and Dunaden have won the Geelong Cup 13 days before the Melbourne Cup, but it appears that Gatewood has paid the price for a small field and an agonisingly slow pace in this year’s Geelong Cup.

Gatewood’s winning time of 2.34.10 for the 2400-metre trip was almost seven seconds slower than Garud, a restricted class galloper, recorded in an earlier 2400-metre race. Gatewood did finish off in a slick 32.9s for his final 600 metres.
Racing Victoria's general manager of racing Greg Carpenter said he had given account to the merit of the performance, the quality of the race, the manner in which it was contested and also the relevant weights of Gatewood’s opposition.

‘‘Gatewood had two kilograms less than Brigantin (on Wednesday) and with the penalty issued he now has 0.5kg less than him in the Melbourne Cup representing a turnaround of 1.5kg for a margin of three quarters of a length.

‘‘With respect to beaten runners Maluckyday and Tac de Boistron, who are inside the top 24 for the Melbourne Cup, Gatewood now meets them 2kg worse than in yesterday’s contest,’’ Carpenter said.

Gatewood’s connections could opt to run him again in the hope of attracting another penalty but the only race left is next Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup. If he was to run it would mean the international galloper will have to start three times in two weeks.

He could also run in the ballot-free Lexus on Victoria Derby day but again that is just three days out from the Melbourne Cup and is unlikely to be considered


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/gatewood-gets-1kg-melbourne-cup-pena...
Report roobuck October 25, 2012 12:03 PM BST
Disappointing but not altogether surprising.

Call me cynical, but as another strong overseas contender was he ever likely to get any more?
Report ta1 October 26, 2012 1:11 PM BST
shouldnt have got any penalty let alone 1kg.
Ran 7secs slower than a low grade race same day.
Ran slower last 600 than the 2 placed behing it.
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 26, 2012 8:18 PM BST
Damien Oliver to ride Americain in Melbourne Cup

BY: LEO SCHLINK From: Herald Sun October 27, 2012
http://www.theaustralian.com.au

EXCLUSIVE: DAMIEN Oliver has grabbed the prized Melbourne Cup mount on 2010 winner Americain following the bombshell sacking of French jockey Gerald Mosse.

Under investigation for alleged illegal gambling, dual Cup winner Oliver has secured the ride on the French star after reviews of Mosse's Caulfield Cup ride.

Owners Kevin and Colleen Bamford and Gerry and Val Ryan believe Oliver can guide Americain (inset) to a second Cup.

"Gerald's done a great job in the past," Gerry Ryan said. "But, after taking advice from analysts and other racing people, we felt we needed an Australian jockey.

"Damien's record speaks for itself and we believe he can get the job done."

Oliver was overjoyed at gaining the ride on the $8.50 Melbourne Cup second favourite, little more than a week after he was sacked from My Quest For Peace in the Caulfield Cup following betting allegations.


"It's a great opportunity to ride a horse of Americain's calibre in the Melbourne Cup," Oliver said. "I think he can win the race.

"I'm very grateful that people of Gerry Ryan and Kevin Bamford's standing would give me this opportunity.

"Hopefully I can repay their faith in me in spades."

Oliver has had a tumultuous spring. Last week he won the Thousand Guineas on Commanding Jewel only days after he was accused of placing a $10,000 bet on a horse he was riding against, Miss Octo****, when she won at Moonee Valley in October 2010.

He is now at the centre of a Racing Victoria inquiry.

The champion rider said he struggled to watch the Caulfield Cup.

"It was difficult. It was probably a little more gut-wrenching the way (co-owners Terry Henderson and Simon O'Donnell) went about their decision (to sack me)," he said.

"I've been friendly with them for a long time and, because I've had a lot of success with them, it felt uncomfortable," Oliver said.

Oliver has demanded the jockey's percentage from My Quest For Peace's fifth in the Caulfield Cup as well as whatever the English stayer earns in the Melbourne Cup.

Americain was a luckless fourth in the Caulfield Cup after bumping another horse at the start.

With Mosse seemingly intent on keeping him out of trouble, he was outridden by Craig Williams on Dunaden.

Oliver will ride Americain for the first time in trackwork on Wednesday.

"He's such an imposing horse and from what I hear from the camp, he's still improving," Oliver said.

"I'm very excited about riding him in the Cup."

Ryan said Americain's French trainer, Alain de Royer Dupre, had agreed to the switch. He was last night trying to contact Mosse
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 28, 2012 5:38 PM GMT
Galileo's Choice gives Dermot Weld another shot at winning the Melbourne Cup for third time

by: Leo Schlink
From:Herald Sun
October 28, 2012

IRISH trainer Dermot Weld first ambushed Australian bookmakers with Vintage Crop in the 1993 Melbourne Cup, the bagmen were left to muse over the credentials of a part-time hurdler/progressive stayer.

Almost two decades later, Weld returns in search of a third Cup with Galileo's Choice, a lightly-raced seven-year-old who, like Vintage Crop, mixes hurdling with flat racing.

Galileo's Choice did not travel well to Australia, but Weld ensure the gelding was given the maximum time to acclimatise.

He has steadily blossomed at Werribee, gaining weight and fitness almost by the day.

A useful juvenile, Galileo's Choice won twice at three before jumping to Group 1 company the following season.

He then switched to jumping, winning over 3200m and 3400m, before winning a 2000m Group 3 on the flat at Leopardstown.

Fiorente has potential to surprise

More jumping followed before Weld switched Galileo’s Choice back to flat racing, winning first-up in the Listed Challenge Stakes (2800m)

That success led to a brave win in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes (2400m) at Leopardstown on August 9, showing tremendous grit to hold off his rivals with 61kg.

The Money Train: Where the money is going in the Melbourne Cup

A proven weight-carrier, Galileo's Choice will shoulder only 53.5kg in the Melbourne Cup, having carried no less than 61kg in his past eight starts.

GALILEO'S CHOICE

Bay g 7-year-old

Galileo (Ire)-Sevi's Choice (USA)

Trainer: Dermot Weld (Ire)

Emirates Melbourne Cup odds: $21

Assessment: Heading straight to the Cup, Galileo's Choice is the hardest of the Flemington entrants to assess. Trained by Irish master Dermot Weld and boasting a similar profile Vintage Crop, so must be a huge chance.
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 28, 2012 5:39 PM GMT

Ethiopia appears Australia's best hope of being a local hero in Melbourne Cup


by: Matt Stewart
From:Herald Sun
October 29,

MORNINGTON trainer Pat Carey could carry the hopes of a nation in the Melbourne Cup.

Carey is grappling with a Cup start for the rapidly improving Ethiopia, who leapt up Melbourne Cup charts with an eye-catching fourth in Saturday's Cox Plate.

The effort has most bookmakers convinced Ethiopia is the best placed local to combat an international swarm of up to 14 Cup runners.

Carey will decide later this week if Ethiopia takes his place, with his West Australian owner/breeder to pay the $3000 second declaration fee today.

Carey declared the Cup off the agenda after Ethiopia's barnstorming Derby win in April, but the four-year-old's outstanding trial in the Cox Plate has Carey wavering.

He said he had no doubt Ethiopia was a rare Australian-bred, in that he was good enough to match strides with the all-powerful Europeans.



"We believe he has that sort of profile, certainly," Carey said. "The question is whether we take them on this year or next year.

"We'll monitor the horse, I'll have a chat to the owner and the owner will make the decision based a fair bit on what I tell him about how the horse is going.

"Effectively we've got until 4.30pm next Saturday to decide, but I think we owe it to people to make a decision before that."

Ethiopia is a $17 chance in most markets, with just the Hawkes-trained Maluckyday shorter among the few remaining local hopes.

Other fringe locals, like bush champs Moudre and Exceptionally, will be balloted from the Cup if they cannot gain last entry via victory in Saturday's Lexus Stakes at Flemington.

The squad of traditional local force Lloyd Williams is in tatters, with Midas Touch injured and out of the Cup and Green Moon under an injury cloud.

International raiders take seven of the first nine spots in the TAB's Melbourne Cup markets - and 14 of the top 20 spots.

French stayers Dunaden and Americain, winners of the past two Cups, head betting at $6.50.

The TAB's Glen Munsie says Ethiopia could start the shortest-priced local if Carey decides to run.

"Punters are getting premium odds about Ethiopia right now because he's not a certain runner," Munsie said. "If Carey says yes, he's running, then they are at least quoted the same price at about $14."

Ethiopia has shortened to $14 with Centrebet and Sportingbet.

Sportingbet's Bill Richmond said: "Punters will come for him more than Maluckyday if he runs. He is the young, emerging horse who might be the top Aussie hope."

Michael Felgate, from Centrebet, said Ethiopia could start as short as $10 and be possibly the only genuine local chance.

Carey said local trainers will have to become accustomed to European dominance in the Cup.

"It's just the way the Cup has developed. Our job is going to have to be to come up with horses that are good enough. We really think Ethiopia is that sort of horse," he said
Report bestmate October 28, 2012 7:56 PM GMT
Luca Cumani fears his Melbourne Cup runners face a tough task against the French raiders Dunaden and Americain, the last two winners of the famous race.
Cumani's Mount Athos has been prominent in the ante-post lists for some time, while My Quest For Peace shortened in the betting having finished a close fifth in the Caulfield Cup.
However, given last year's winner Dunaden defied a poor draw to win the Caulfield Cup and Americain also ran well in the same race, the Newmarket handler is wary.
"I thought he (My Quest For Peace) ran extremely well. Especially as because we had a good draw we went quite handy and all the others that raced up with the pace dropped right away," Cumani told Racing UK.
"We were only beaten a length and a half and he ran very well, however, I have to say that I was very impressed with Dunaden and Americain, too. At the moment I think the French have the upper hand.
"Mount Athos is very good, too, so far I can't complain. I'm flying out on Saturday and I'll get there Monday morning and I hope they are all in as good a form as they tell me they are.I've been very close twice but I think those French horses are a pain in the neck!"
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 29, 2012 3:49 PM GMT
International embarrassment: owner hits out

Date October 30, 2012

Michael Sharkie Racing Writer


AUSTRALIAN racing runs the risk of international embarrassment if emergencies are not added to future Melbourne Cups, according to one of the country's most respected owners.

Terry Henderson, director of OTI Racing who could have three Melbourne Cup runners, said it was farcical that emergencies were not allowed for the Melbourne Cup.

''How silly would we look if we have a year when European runners miss out, only for there to be three scratchings on race day?'' Henderson said. ''We've finally come to grips with the fact that the race is a handicap and you have to earn weight to make the field but horses are still scratched and others miss runs.

''We can put a man on the moon and fight wars in Afghanistan but apparently we can't have emergencies in the Melbourne Cup.''

The pari-mutuel system operated by Tabcorp restricts maximum field sizes in Australia to 24 runners but the decision to add emergencies to the Melbourne Cup field does not rest with the wagering operator.

In 2010, the Victoria Racing Club after consultation with Tabcorp and Racing Victoria elected not to make changes to the system through the pursuit of Melbourne Cup emergencies, citing negative impacts on wagering locally and internationally as a determining factor, and VRC chief Dale Monteith said nothing had changed since then.

''We [VRC] can't do it unilaterally; we don't control the tote systems or the betting agencies,'' Monteith said. ''We couldn't get the support of RVL and tote systems around Australia are engineered around 24 runners, and because so much pre-race betting on Sunday and Monday occurs, it just doesn't make sense [to change the system].''

A full field of 24 runners has started in only two of the past 10 Melbourne Cups, with a peak of three scratchings from the race in 2007. Mourayan was a race-day scratching last year.

Two of Henderson's potential Melbourne Cup contenders, Gatewood and Prairie Star, must win either the Mackinnon Stakes or Lexus Stakes on Saturday to secure a place in the final field, but although in contention for a berth, neither horse is certain to take its place - even if able to win its way into the race - due to the short time frame before the Cup field is announced.

''We would need to be 110 per cent confident that the horses have come through with no issues and absolutely in perfect health [before confirming a start] and we have all of four hours to do that [after the Mackinnon and Lexus are run],'' Henderson said.

''The hustle and bustle of that Saturday afternoon calls for a quick decision to be made because there are no emergencies, you're either in or out. It would be far more ideal and fair on the horse to see how it pulls up the following day after the run but we can't do that, we're being dictated to by a computer system.''

Henderson has been on both sides of the final field border; OTI Racing has missed spots in the field with horses in good form and they have secured runs only to be forced to scratch their runner before the race due to injury, leaving another fit and healthy contender in Cup limbo; 2008 Melbourne Cup runner-up Bauer was scratched on race morning from the 2010 Cup after failing a vet inspection.

''You really do feel sick because you know that you've kept someone out of the race but we weren't to know the horse would not make the race. It's a terrible position to be in,'' he said.

With one runner, My Quest For Peace, 19th on the order of entry and therefore guaranteed a place in the 24-horse field, OTI Racing will attempt an 11th-hour bid to get Prairie Star and up-and-coming staying star Gatewood into the Cup but Henderson said that it would be a big ask for either horse to back up in the gruelling 3200-metre test just three days after a race.

''It's not the European or American way, to back a horse up so soon after racing, this is why we are so circumspect about whether they [Gatewood or Prairie Star] will run even if they win,'' he said.

''It [a Melbourne Cup start] has to be taken on a horse-by-horse situation. We've all seen horses that have been cooked and never come back, and we've all seen horses that race and recover like they've never been around, I don't know enough about either of our horses to say which category they fall into.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/international-embarrassment-owner-hi...
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 29, 2012 3:51 PM GMT
Australia's true-blue hopes

Date October 30,

Andrew Eddy

Racing Editor for The Age


AFTER last year's demoralising result when international horses filled the first seven positions in the Melbourne Cup, the locals are poised to strike back with the country's most famous stables armed with multiple entries for next Tuesday's $6.2 million Melbourne Cup.

After second declarations yesterday, where only three of the top 38 ranked horses dropped out of the race, 16 of the top 24 horses are trained in Australia by the likes of Bart Cummings, Gai Waterhouse, Peter Moody, John Hawkes and for owner Lloyd Williams.

The low attrition rate has placed the Melbourne Cup at least temporarily out of reach for four well-ranked internationals - Lost In The Moment (Saeed bin Suroor), Brigantin (Andre Fabre), Shahwardi (Alain de Royer Dupre) and Gatewood (John Gosden).

The local prospects of a defence of the Cup this year looked poor when entries closed on September 1. French horses have won the past two and last year it was Niwot who was the first Australian-trained horse home in eighth place.

While it provided great reading for the promoters of the Melbourne Cup, last year's placings were depressing for the locals when French galloper Dunaden nosed out English stayer Red Cadeaux, with the German horse Lucas Cranach in third place and French star Americain in fourth. Then followed English horse Manighar, Godolphin's galloper Lost In The Moment and English stayer Fox Hunt.

Among the 46 horses remaining in the Cup are multiple entries from the most famous names of Australian racing such as Bart Cummings (Sanagas, Precedence), Waterhouse (Glencadam Gold and Fiorente), Moody (Lights Of Heaven and Voila Ici), Team Hawkes (Niwot and Maluckyday), Michael Kent (Unusual Suspect and Tac De Boistron) and those from the Williams yard including Green Moon and Mourayan.

There are two races remaining that offer a ballot-free run to the Melbourne Cup. They are Saturday's group 1 Mackinnon Stakes and group 2 Lexus Stakes.

Cummings especially will take a keen interest in the result of the Lexus Stakes as he hopes to qualify a third runner, Dare To Dream, who comes off a disappointing run earlier this month when unplaced in the Tatts Cup at Randwick.

Ethiopia's owner-breeder Trevor Delroy and the connections of last year's Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed were happy to pay the non-refundable $3850 second declaration for the Cup yesterday despite queries remaining over both horses.

Ethiopia, who ran a brave fourth in last Saturday's Cox Plate and was last season's Australian Derby winner, is the second-highest-ranked Australian horse at No. 7 on the updated elimination order.

''It is now up to the trainer Pat Carey and [jockey] Rhys McLeod who will give the horse a light gallop later in the week and if he is in good order we would probably proceed, but we won't unless we are totally happy with the horse,'' he said.

It is a similar story for the Southern Speed camp after she ran home quicker than any horse in the Cox Plate last Saturday.

Tomorrow's Bendigo Cup will have no bearing on the make-up of this year's Melbourne Cup field with only two runners remaining in the hunt. Spechenka, who is 39th in order and 43rd-ranked Excluded will run but neither will come into the Melbourne Cup picture if they win as both need massive re-handicaps to make the final field.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/australias-trueblue-hopes-20121029-2...
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 29, 2012 6:04 PM GMT
2012 Melbourne Cup Ballot Nominations Order of Entry FAQs:
Q: How is the final field of the Melbourne Cup decided, what are the ballot  conditions?

A: The final field of the Melbourne Cup is determined by the board of the VRC subject to certain conditions. The VRC board, at its discretion, may eliminate a horse(s) from the final field of 24 in certain circumstances. If such discretionary elimination does occur, replacement of such a horse will be according to the balloting order with the next horse in the order of entry making its way into the final field of 24. Horses outside of the top 24 will not be promoted over other horses.

Q: Why are there no emergencies in the Melbourne Cup?

A: The Australian totalisator (TAB) simply does not have a facility to accommodate more than 24 runners in a field, so there can be no number 25 or 26 etc. In other countries this is overcome by giving an emergency runner the saddlecloth number of a scratched horse, but this is not permitted in Australia as it is believed it would a negative impact on turnover.

Q: When are final acceptances for the 2012 Melbourne Cup?

A: Final Declarations will be taken by 4.30pm on Saturday 3rd November 2012. The final field and barrier draw are announced a short time later. Final acceptances are taken on the understanding the horse would be fit enough to race if the Melbourne Cup were held on the day of final declarations. The final field and barrier draw for the 2012 Melbourne Cup will be published here.

Q: Are the winners of certain races guaranteed entry to the Melbourne Cup?

A: The winners of the following races are exempt from ballot and permitted an automatic entry to the Melbourne Cup should they decide to nominate:

VRC Lexus Stakes
VRC Victoria Derby
VRC Mackinnon Stakes
MVRC Cox Plate
MRC Caulfield Cup
Irish St Leger
Tenno Sho (Japan)

The remaining final acceptors shall be eliminated in the following order until the limit of 24 is reached:

Horses (other than those above) that:

A) since 1 August 2010 inclusive have won, or been placed 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further; OR

B) since 1 August 2010 inclusive have been placed 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run, OR

C) since 1 August 2010 inclusive have won an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further, OR




D) since 1 August 2010 inclusive have won or been placed 2nd or 3rd in the York Ebor (UK), Northumberland Plate (UK), Cesarewitch (UK), Champions & Chater Cup (HK) or Queen Mother Memorial Cup (HK), OR

E) have been placed 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2011 MRC Caulfield Cup, OR 2

F) have been placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2012 MVRC Cox Plate, OR

G) have been placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2012 VRC Mackinnon Stakes, OR

H) have won the 2012 VRC Turnbull Stakes

MELBOURNE CUP ENTRIES FIRST 24 GUARANTEED A RUN

DUNADEN (FR) Mikel Delzangles (Fr) 59

AMERICAIN (USA) Alain de Royer Dupre (Fr)  58

RED CADEAUX (GB) Ed Dunlop (GB)  55.5

WINCHESTER (USA) John Sadler  55.5

JAKKALBERRY (IRE) Marco Botti (GB)  55.5

VOILA ICI (IRE) Peter G Moody  55

SOUTHERN SPEED Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas 54.5

MOUNT ATHOS (IRE) Luca Cumani (GB)  54

SANAGAS (GER) Bart Cummings  54

CAVALRYMAN (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor  54

GREEN MOON (IRE) Robert Hickmott  53.5

MOURAYAN (IRE) Robert Hickmott  53.5

FIORENTE (IRE) Gai Waterhouse  53.5

GLENCADAM GOLD (IRE) Gai Waterhouse  53.5

GALILEO'S CHOICE (IRE)Dermot K Weld (Ire)  53.5

MY QUEST FOR PEACE (IRE) Luca Cumani (GB) 53.5

TAC DE BOISTRON (FR) Michael Kent  53.5

ETHIOPIA Pat Carey 53.5

MALUCKYDAY (NZ) Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes  53.5

NIWOT Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes  53.5

LIGHTS OF HEAVEN (NZ) Peter G Moody  53

UNUSUAL SUSPECT (USA)Michael Kent 53

PRECEDENCE (NZ) Bart Cummings 53

SHAHWARDI (FR)Alain de Royer Dupre (Fr) 53


BRIGANTIN (USA)Andre Fabre (Fr) 53

MOUDRECiaron Maher 53

PRAIRIE STAR (FR)Danny O'Brien 53

LOST IN THE MOMENT (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 53

TANBY Robert Hickmott 52.5

PERMIT (GB) Chris Waller 52.5

GATEWOOD (GB)John Gosden (GB)  52.5

IRONSTEIN Gerald Ryan 52.5

ZABEELIONAIRE (NZ) Leon Corstens  52

IBICENCO (GER) Luca Cumani (GB)  51.5

SABRAGE Michael Moroney 51

VATUVEI Peter G Moody 51

KELINNI (IRE) Chris Waller 51

SPECHENKA Ben Ahrens 50.5

BACK IN BLACK (NZ)John Steffert 50

EXCLUDED (NZ)Robert Hickmott  50

EXCEPTIONALLY (NZ) Terry & Karina O'Sullivan 50

FICTIONAL ACCOUNT (IRE) David Hayes 50

DARE TO DREAM (IRE) Bart Cummings  50

PEAL OF BELLS Gwenda Markwell  50

REUBEN PERCIVAL (NZ)Gai Waterhouse 50

DAME CLAIRE (NZ)Pat Carey 50
Report Hollymount Hero October 30, 2012 8:47 AM GMT
Thanks for such a great reference Anaglogs Daughter, definitley a great post to refer to as we watch the field take for over the next 4 days!
Report roobuck October 30, 2012 9:07 AM GMT
Clearly very much an in and out performer, but cannot help thinking that the race may bring the best out of Fiorente. 25/1 general is very fair imo
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 30, 2012 12:31 PM GMT
http://betfred.chromaagency.com

RED CADEAUX in the clear


Red Cadeaux has been involved in a virus scare at his quarantine barn in Australia but Ed Dunlop was able to breathe a sigh of relief after he was given the all-clear.

Last year's Melbourne Cup runner-up is stabled in the same yard as the former John Oxx-trained Hartani who has struck up a temperature. The three-year-old has been bought to take part in next year's carnival but thankfully Racing Victoria officials confirmed there was no cause for alarm.

"As part of the quarantine process, each horse's temperature is checked twice daily. It was established that Hartani had an elevated temperature last night and as a precaution the horse was moved to the isolation box at the Vintage Crop stables," said RV's head of equine welfare and veterinary service, Brian Stewart.

"The horse was treated promptly and his temperature had returned to normal. A blood test was performed and the initial reports are that the horse is suffering from a mild viral infection and appears to be recovering quickly.

"As a routine precaution, veterinarians will monitor the horse's progress over coming days, but at this time, we don't expect this to have an impact on the preparation of the international horses being trained from the Vintage Crop Stables."

Red Cadeaux's jockey Michael Rodd feels Dunlop's charge is stronger this year as he aims to go one better, telling www.racingvictoria.net.au: "He's bigger and wider than he was last year and I could really feel it out on the track.

"Last year is still hurting and I've had 12 months to relive it and how I might be able to turn the tables this year. He's been going quite well but just seems to like it here. Hopefully he can go one better than last year."


Cumani thrilled with Melbourne duo



Luca Cumani has arrived in Australia to put the finishing touches to the preparations of Mouth Athos and My Quest For Peace ahead of Tuesday's Emirates Melbourne Cup.

Mount Athos has been one of the ante-post favourites for some time after winning his last three races, and Cumani has been keen to keep him fresh.

My Quest For Peace ran a fine trial in the Caulfield Cup when beaten just over a length into fifth and the Newmarket handler has two good chances to claim a race he has come so close to winning on a couple of occasions.

"They look very well. Most of the time when I've joined them they have had trouble eating or look light and I haven't been happy but this time I am happy, they look great," Cumani told www.racingvictoria.net.au.

"Mount Athos won first up for us in the spring not having raced for six months and was very impressive. He didn't race for two months and then won again in a Listed race and then had 45 days off before winning the Geoffrey Freer at Group Three level. He's done his best by racing sparingly.

"They are both equally as good (as each other). Both have Group form in England and are in good form. I haven't got a favourite, may the best horse win. Both my horses like it fast, but fast by English standards, not fast by Australian standards."

Dermot Weld's Galileo's Choice is another major European contender and he came through a piece of work in company with a horse of Geelong trainer Rick Page's, who strapped Media Puzzle for the Weld's when the horse won the 2002 Melbourne Cup.

"We just wanted a nice sharp piece of work and what we saw just there you would have to be happy with," said Weld's son, Mark.

"He did some really strong work at the Welsh's Hill gallop at the Curragh before coming out here and we just need to keep him ticking over now."
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 30, 2012 1:21 PM GMT
Weld wants wet track for welfare, says son

Date October 31, 2012
Michael Sharkie Racing Writer


FOR as long as Dermot Weld has been sending horses to the Melbourne Cup he has been calling for more water to be applied at Flemington, but the last thing the Irish maestro is chasing is an advantage.

According to Weld's son and stable representative Mark Weld, his father's pleas are made with the welfare of his horses in mind.

''It's not so much about horses not performing at their best [on firm ground], it's about how they pull up afterwards,'' Weld said. ''All we have ever asked for is a safe track and Flemington will present … a safe track, but on top of that some rain would be nice. I just don't want to bring home an injured horse, it has happened in the past and it's nobody's fault but it's just fact. If we don't get rain I'm hoping that Flemington would water extensively.''

''Being completely honest, what you call a good track would be too quick for all the European horses.''

Weather forecasts aside, Weld could not be happier with the form of Galileo's Choice a week from the Cup after the horse initially took time to recover from the trip from Ireland to Melbourne.

Working strongly with Geelong-trained mare Loves Long Journey over 2000 metres at Werribee, Galileo's Choice thrilled Weld yesterday with his fast work.

''We had a little company for the horse and I was very, very happy. He quickened up well, worked well and we can do no more now, just keep things ticking over.''

Like former Weld-trained Cup winner Vintage Crop, Galileo's Choice has had experience over the jumps in Ireland and was runner-up in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse in December last year after winning a group 3 race at 2000m on the flat.

He then took a hurdle race at Fairyhouse by four lengths in February before a winning double at listed and group 3 level on the flat at Leopardstown before entering quarantine in Ireland.

''He's slightly different to all the others, he's not a group 1 winner but I don't think that matters,'' the trainer said. ''He's a horse that we like a lot and had he run in the Irish St Leger this year he probably would have won it, but then he'd be carrying a fairly substantial penalty and would be at the other end of the handicap.''

Weld will accompany Galileo's Choice to Flemington this morning for a familiarisation exercise.

❏ Racing Victoria officials are confident a virus that has been picked up by a horse at Werribee will have no effect on the preparations of 16 Cup hopefuls stationed there.

Racing Victoria's international manager Leigh Jordon said the routines of all horses will not be disrupted after the Lloyd Williams-owned import Hartani was isolated from the other horses after he was found to have had an elevated temperature on Monday night.

''There is absolutely no alteration to trackwork,'' he said.

with ANDREW EDDY and PATRICK BARTLEY


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/weld-wants-wet-track-for-welfare-say...
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 31, 2012 11:45 AM GMT
Gai Waterhouse has confirmed that beaten Caulfield Cup favourite Glencadam Gold will not run on Saturday in the Lexus Stakes as he battles to overcome a minor injury.

Waterhouse still intends in racing the horse in next Tuesday's Melbourne Cup but will not take the risk of inflaming a hood complaint before the race.

"He won't run Saturday, he's been at the beach all week and is improving but he won't run" she said.

"I still intend on running him on Tuesday, but we will know more in the next few days"


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/gais-glencadam-gold-set-for-cup-desp...
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 31, 2012 1:52 PM GMT
Cumani lacks confidence but not class in pursuit of glory

Date November 1, 2012
Chris Roots


LUCA CUMANI has been a regular visitor to Australia in his quest to lift the Melbourne Cup, and knows not to get too confident about his chances of finally claiming the grand prize on Tuesday.

Purple Moon and Bauer have filled the stall next to the winner in 2007 and 2008, which has further fuelled the Newmarket trainer's passion for Australia's biggest prize.

He has Mount Athos and My Quest For Peace as confirmed runners in the Melbourne Cup, and is hoping it will be seventh time lucky in Melbourne. But he is not foolish enough to predict a victory.

''I always say that with horses and women I'm never confident, just hopeful,'' Cumani said. ''On a nought to 10 scale, I probably say I'm a six out of 10 but I'm never a confident person."

Mount Athos was backed in to favourite for the Melbourne Cup after his third win under Cumani's care, but has drifted to be third favourite at $8.50 behind French raiders Americain and Dunaden.

Cumani deflected any doubts about the fitness of Mount Athos despite not having raced since his 3½-length win in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury on August 18.

''If you go through his form since he joined me, he's won all three of them with big gaps in between each race. He's a horse that likes to run fresh,'' Cumani said. ''He's been training regularly, just the same as normal. All he's missed out on is racing.''

Mount Athos has scored three romping wins for Cumani, starting with a handicap in May. He stepped up to the listed Silver Cup at York in July and produced a devastating burst to win by four lengths. It is enough to have Cumani comparing Mount Athos's attributes to those of Purple Moon, which beat home all but Efficient on the first Tuesday in November in 2007.

''He has a good turn of foot, which is exactly what you need,'' he said. ''You need the ability to see out the 3200 metres, the ability to settle well and get a good position to be handy and responsive to the jockey and then an ability to quicken over the last 800m.''

While Mount Athos has been quietly going about his business at Werribee, My Quest For Peace was one of the only on-pacers to keep going in the Caulfield Cup, in which he finished fifth.

Mount Athos and My Quest For Peace had a serious hit-out in front of Cumani, who seemed pleased with what he saw, and said the warmer weather had brought out the best in them.

"They left Newmarket in very good shape, and they are in very good shape here," he said. "Horses like heat. Like humans, we prefer to be in warm weather than cold weather, and I always find with horses when they go to warmer weather, they thrive.''

When asked why he kept coming back in pursuit of the Melbourne Cup, Cumani's answer was simple: ''I'm a glutton for punishment.''


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/cumani-lacks-confidence-but-not-clas...
Report bestmate October 31, 2012 7:50 PM GMT
see Cumani's horses work today

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxXYHm3jo6Y&feature=youtu.be

Look a solid piece of work to my eyes. MA a bit fresh early & then gallops well to come up on the inside of MQFP. Should come on for this gallop
I had MA @10's & putting a few bob on MQFP as well
Report gamerawins October 31, 2012 9:22 PM GMT
Hmmm MQFP looked much the happier of the two to me, flicking the ears and well within himself. MA certainly didn't look as happy.

They went a good clip for about the last minute which would be about 6 furlongs.

It's a bit late now to be needing a gallop, if he "needed" it per say. I just hope MA is ready and happy. I hope it rains as his best run was on the good ground at York when he ran 4.6 seconds slower than standard. They usually give the description "good" for Melbourne Cup but for Americain's win it was "soft" and a time of only 6 seconds slower than last year. It would seem that "soft" ground over there is probably like good in England and good to firm in Ireland. I would rather it rains for MA as it's possible he will not fully letting himself down on the ground out there.

Oh well, Luca says he is ready and my faith is in him. Hopefully what I just saw and my subsequent conclusions mean nothing.
Report bestmate October 31, 2012 10:04 PM GMT
gamerawins
dont loose faith.
Here is something to cheer you

MOUNT Athos has beaten the Melbourne Cup handicapper, according to the Dermot Weld stable.

Mark Weld, representing his father, believes Luca Cumani's stayer has got under Racing Victoria handicapper Greg Carpenter's guard for next Tuesday's Cup.

Mount Athos will carry 54kg in the Cup - 5kg less than topweight and 2011 winner Dunaden.

"If you asked me to pick out one horse that has got away on the handicapper, it's Mount Athos - there's no question,'' Weld said. "It was the reaction at home when the weights came out was the guy that had been really favourably treated was him.

"If he's got another half a kg, that would be been fair. You would have a smile on your face if you were the Cumanis.''

Weld, who will saddle up Irish raider Galileo's Choice, revealed the family stable had tried to buy Mount Athos with a view to winning a third Cup.up...
Report gamerawins October 31, 2012 11:00 PM GMT
Oh I don't need convincing on his form. If he reproduces his English form he wins. If they were all at level weights he would still be the clear form pick, but seeing as the French horses have to give him upwards on a stone then he really is the business. I'm just worried about the ground. "Good" out there is like hard going here and with the water-table so low it would take a lot of rain for the ground to be what we would call good and I'm certain he is a better horse on our good. Six weeks working on hard ground can convince a horse to start looking after himself and not put down and stride out properly. He didn't look happy in that gallop and no one will convince me different! I was ready to back him again but now I think I'll just sit on what I have and hope for the best.

Fingers crossed, yeah :)
Report sintonian November 1, 2012 11:53 AM GMT
Cavalryman far too big at 50/1 imo. He beat Aimm To Prosper conceding weight earlier this season. He's won 2/4 this season and finished a decent 2nd at Newmarket last time out when likely to be prepping. Could be Dettori's last big payday for Godolphin!

Hope he gets a decent draw as it is all important.
Report gamerawins November 1, 2012 1:20 PM GMT
The draw might not be as significant as everyone thinks;

2011 6 of the 1st 7 home came from a double figure stall.
2010 5 of the 1st 8 home came from a double figure stall.
2009 the 1st 6 home all from a double figure stall.
2008 single figures did best but Bauer in 2nd was only beaten a nose from stall 13.

If you look at previous runnings, they race differently to European races regarding the bends. Probably because of the predominance of tracks with tight bends, it seems that in Austrailia jockeys rightly view it as paramount to not get caught wide. Even for a big field you rarely if ever see a horse stuck 3 or 4 horses wide around the bends as the whole field always goes to indian file or close rounding the corners. This is in contrast to Europe where jockeys seem to be largely oblivious to the tangent phenomenon and you will regularly see horses have their chances seriously negated by being caught far too wide. The Aussies are more aware of this and races are run accordingly. Personally I wouldn't worry too much about a wide stall and would actually prefer 8 to 12.

What is essential is to be held up. All the placed horses have come from a fair way back, the exception being the mighty So You Think who raced relatively prominently in "6th or 7th" in 2010 and finished 3rd. You want to be held up and swing relatively wide into the straight and quicken past the pace setters. The most important part of a staying race is the 1st furlong. What you do with your horse as soon as it leaves the gate is of paramount importance. Getting a horse settled is the main priority. With jockeys pre-occupied with not getting caught wide you will very often see horses scrubbed up or let run far too free early on so to get a position. Ever run a two mile time trial or race yourself? If you go too fast for the 1st 200 meters then you will pay for it later, doesn't matter how good you are or how fit you are. When the best runners in the World go for world records at 1 mile or 5km the splits must be perfect, if they run the 1st lap 2 seconds too quick they are in trouble and the attempt will fail. Same goes for a horse except it is even more important as with a horse their head starts to spin. They are asked to go faster from the gate, then asked to slow and it can be confusing and they run with the choke slightly out and don't get home. The best example is the Cesarewitch in England where the draw is huge due to 34 runners. People think it's due to the one bend but it has nothing to do with that. It's because of the size of the field those drawn wide have a longer distance to run to join the others and in addition to this they get fizzed up as jockeys try too hard to get them up there and get across. Then they don't get home while those drawn lower have had a much easier time through the 1st furlong. In a staying race the 1st few furlongs and what a jockey asks his horse to do, are vital.

In the Melbourne Cup a strong trend is developing; horses drawn wide who are dropped in and settled in the early parts of the race are  not getting caught wide but are coming home strong as their pace chasing opponents tire off the last bend. The exact same thing happened in the recent Caulfield Cup with nothing getting caught wide and Glencadam Gold getting an awful ride as his jockey allowed him to totally blow it in the 1st furlong.
Report bestmate November 1, 2012 7:51 PM GMT
gamerawins
your comments are great but Mr Cumani has different views about ground preference for MA
"LUCA Cumani will not add his voice to the European call for a heavily watered track for next week's Melbourne Cup, saying Mount Athos and My Quest For Peace prefer fast ground.
Taking the opposite view to most international trainers, Cumani said he would not be "singing from the same hymn sheet" after Mark Weld expressed his concerns about a hard track.
"Both my horses, Mount Athos and (My) Quest For Peace, they like it fast," Cumani said."
Report oufies pal November 1, 2012 8:45 PM GMT
gamer, i wouldnt be too concerned about the look of ma working in the  utube clip .take a look at him in the last two furlongs of his last three races, looks ungainly , a little bit at sea ,ears back but boy does he take off when the gun is put to the head. finishes like a train . run in york especially taking ,to finish so well giving lots of weight to decent enough handicappers . heres hoping for a decent passage in  tuesdays race and a similar power packed finish. good luck with your bets.
Report gamerawins November 1, 2012 10:17 PM GMT
oufies; I agree with you, he never looks the best, that is true.

bestmate; I know what Luca thinks and I know he is wrong. The horse doesn't have to have it fast. His best run was at York when the ground was more gd/sft than good and if correlated to Australian going descriptions that would equate to something more like soft for them. And as stated earlier, everything the dam threw won with give and the full brother won a Group 1 in France on going officially described as "very soft" i.e. heavy in England and unraceable in Aus. Of course he can win it on fast but he doesn't need it fast to win this. Cumani is wrong. No one respects Luca more than I but in this instance he is wrong. There is outstanding evidence that says the horse would be perfectly fine on watered ground in Aus.

Anyway, I've backed the horse 3 times and will back him at least once more, maybe twice more. It's my bet of the year.

Best of luck to everyone!
Report sintonian November 2, 2012 11:58 AM GMT
saying double figures is generic. Last year I read some stats and something like the last 5 winners have been drawn between 12-17. That is a strong bias.
Report StevoDevo November 3, 2012 8:49 AM GMT
OFFICIAL 2012 Melbourne Cup field:

Number     Barrier     Horse Name     Trainer     Likely Jockey     Weight (kg)                            

1     16     Dunaden (FR)           Mikel Delzangles     Craig Williams     59                            
2     12     Americain (USA)       Alain de R Dupre  Damien Oliver   58                            
3     19     Jakkalberry (IRE)     Marco Botti     Colm O’Donoghue 55.5                            
4     18     Red Cadeaux (GB)     Ed Dunlop     Michael Rodd     55.5                            
5     22     Winchester (USA)     John Sadler     Jamie Mott     55.5                            
6     13     Voilà Ice             Peter Moody     Vlad Duric     55.5                            
7     6     Cavalryman (GB)     Saeed Bin Suroor Franki Dettori 54                            
8     8     Mount Athos (IRE)     Luca Cumani     Ryan Moore     54                            
9     4     Sanagas (GER)             Bart Cummings     Brad Rawiller     54                            
10     14     Ethiopia            Pat Carey        Rhys McLeod     53.5                            
11     2     Fiorente (IRE)           Gai Waterhouse     James McDonald     53.5                            
12     11     Galileo’s Choice (IRE)     Dermot Weld     Pat Smullen     53.5                            
13     7     Glencadam Gold (IRE)     Gai Waterhouse     Tommy Berry     53.5                            
14     5     Green Moon (IRE)     Robert Hickmott Brett Prebble   53.5                            
15     9     Maluckyday (NZ)     Team Hawkes     Jim Cassidy     53.5                            
16     3     Mourayan (IRE)     Robert Hickmott     Hugh Bowman     53.5                            
17     1     My Quest For Peace (IRE) Luca Cumani    Corey Brown     53.5                            
18     15     Niwot                     Team Hawkes     Dwayne Dunn     53.5                            
19     21     Tac De Boistron (FR)     Michael Kent     Olivier Doleuze 53                            
20     17     Lights Of Heaven (NZ)     Peter Moody     Luke Nolen     53                            
21     20     Precedence (NZ)     Bart Cummings     Steven Arnold     53                            
22     23     Unusual Suspect (USA)     Michael Kent     Glyn Schofield     53                            
23     24     Zabeelionaire (NZ)     Leon Corstens     Craig Newitt     52                            
24     10     Kelinni (IRE)             Chris Waller     Glen Boss     51

Could be a bit of rain before the Cup by the looks. Softer ground may suit some of the Internationals.
Report MrDinos November 3, 2012 9:02 AM GMT
Pretty happy with Galileo's Choice's draw position of 11. There is some rain forecast for Tuesday which might help take the sting out of the ground which will help GC's chances and a few others. Hopefully the weather men are right for a change!

I also backed Jakkalberry at 60-1 EW, that price was bonkers!!! As l posted last week, Caulfield wasn't his kind of track and he didn't look like he enjoyed it much. Flemington will suit him better and I thought 60-1 was a wee bit insulting considering he has got some good form on left handed tracks (Meydan). Jakk's has been drawn 19 which isn't great but he could have been drawn 1 so it ain't all that bad.

The Europeans were drawn as follows: Dunaden 16, Americain 12, Jakkalberry 19, Red Cadeaux 18, Cavalryman 6, Mount Athos 8, Galileo's Choice 11, My Quest For Peace 1.
Report MrDinos November 3, 2012 9:03 AM GMT
Beat me to it Stevo! Wink
Report Anaglogs Daughter November 3, 2012 9:37 AM GMT
Americain’s assault on Emirates Melbourne Cup favouritism strengthened after the popular French stayer fared slightly better than arch rival Dunaden at tonight’s barrier draw.

The 2010 winner tightened into $5 favouritism for the $6 million event after drawing barrier 12.

Co-owner Gerry Ryan was happy with that gate for the Alain de Royer-Dupre-trained eight-year-old, who will be ridden by Damien Oliver, and while respectful of the opposition is confident he can become the first dual winner in non-consecutive years since Peter Pan in 1932/34.

“We’re happy,” Ryan said after draw in the VRC committeeroom. “The horse is in great condition, Stephanie (Nigge, assistant trainer) is the most relaxed I’ve seen, she said it’s the most confident she’s been, so we’re going to be very competitive.

“We might be favourite with the bookies but there’s a lot of competition and just hopeful we’ve got the best horse on the day.”

Americain will start four slots closer to the fence than the Mikel Delzangles-trained Dunaden, whose quest for back-to-back wins will be carried out from gate 16.

The seven-year-old won the Caulfield Cup from the outside barrier in the 18-horse field, so owner Sheikh Fahad Al Thani remains confident Craig Williams can pull off another win.

“Perfect,” he said when asked his thoughts on the barrier. “I’m sure Craig will find a way to slot him in. I’m very happy with it.

“I feel the horse is a champion, he has a champion jockey on him and I wouldn’t swap him for another horse (in the race).”

Dunaden occupies the $7 second line in betting with Mount Athos ($8.50) next in line after coming up with gate eight.

Trainer Luca Cumani, who also has My Quest For Peace (Corey Brown, barrier one) engaged, was thrilled with the alley for Mount Athos, who will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

“That barrier is very good, I’m very pleased with that,” Cumani said. “I think we got a bit of luck with that and that will give Ryan plenty of options.

“I’m a little bit less happy (with My Quest For Peace). One could make things a little bit tight for Corey, but it’s still better than 20-plus.”

Among the other winners from the draw were Macedon Lodge, who drew barrier three with Mourayan and five with Green Moon.

Godolphin’s lone hope Cavalryman drew barrier six, Gai Waterhouse-trained pair Fiorente and Glencadam Gold landed gates two and seven respectively, the Dermot Weld-trained Galileo’s Choice will start from 11, one spot wider than Lexus Stakes winner Kelinni.

Bart Cummings and Team Hawkes had contrasting results with their two runners; Sanagas and Precedence drew gates four and 20 respectively for Cummings, while Maluckyday will start from nine with his Hawkes-trained stablemate Niwot to begin from 15.

Last year’s runner-up Red Cadeaux will begin from gate 18, lightly-raced Aussie hope Ethiopia has barrier 14, while Zabeelionaire had the misfortune of drawing the outside alley.

The full field for this year’s Emirates Melbourne Cup is available via the link with the TAB market accessible here

Story by Brad Bishop http://www.racingvictoria.net.au
Report RozelKid November 3, 2012 2:08 PM GMT
I think fiorente is very interesting to keep an eye on within the coming weeks .
Report StevoDevo November 4, 2012 6:28 AM GMT
Fiorente is an interesting one Rozelkid. Comfortable win at Newmarket two starts ago when he easily beat Joshus Tree and Red Cadeaux. Wouldn't mind it wet. Anyone think it's a chance in the Cup?

I'm leaning towards Mount Athos but Fiorente might be my roughie.
Report MrDinos November 4, 2012 8:42 AM GMT
Some news on the going for the Melbourne Cup

Flemington track manager Mick Goodie told Channel Seven on Sunday morning he was aiming to produce a Dead 4 rated track with the aim of getting it upgraded to a Good 3 early in Tuesday's 10 race program but the prospect of rain could result in the track being downgraded to at least a Dead 5 or even a Slow 6 come the start of the Melbourne Cup at 3pm.

I'm hoping the rain arrives for GC!
Report roobuck November 4, 2012 9:06 AM GMT
Yes I agree about Fiorente and played e/w at 25s. Considering that race at HQ, I think is price in relation to Red Cadeaux is all wrong especially as he's now getting £4.

Clearly his draw could have been better, has the stamina to prove ( not likely to be an issue considering he is Ballymacoll bred ) and hasn't the experience of a big field handicap but the price more than makes up for it. He is still young and just may prove to have the class edge
Report TINnotaTON November 4, 2012 3:39 PM GMT
why is the place market on here only 1-2-3, all bookies (except blue square...no surprise there, are first 4 ) should be 4 places as it is still rated as a h'cap..
Report RozelKid November 4, 2012 10:07 PM GMT
Thing is with Fiorente, it has all the characteristics of a typical melbourne cup coup with as number of winners within the last 10 years.

I think its a tip in itself that that an australian syndicate has quickly purchased the from from the ballcoyle stud .

Sureley this isnt just an afterthought and has been the long term plan for months.

well im hapopy with the 40/1 i acquired 2 weeks ago.
Report Anaglogs Daughter November 4, 2012 11:06 PM GMT
If you watch ATR during the night this chap reads the horse racing news, if anything happens he reports it as it happens always updating the European horses, if a horse sneezes he'll let you know Happy https://twitter.com/AndrewBensley
Report RozelKid November 4, 2012 11:33 PM GMT
thank you daughter
Report bazzar November 5, 2012 12:03 AM GMT
Do the Australian tabs have a forecast bet on the Melbourne Cup?
Report Joel November 5, 2012 3:59 AM GMT
What is a forecast?
Report Joel November 5, 2012 4:00 AM GMT
www.bom.gov.au has the forecast for today, tomorrow, and indeed the next week.
Report DoesntMatter November 5, 2012 5:38 AM GMT
Not sure which of you is being silly, but:

The TAB does of course offer forecast betting. 'Exacta' is Australian for straight forecast, 'quinella' for dual forecast
Report johnnyrant November 5, 2012 2:07 PM GMT
Not seeing much likelihood of rain on the weather forecasts available online - missing something?
Report Millerracing67 November 5, 2012 4:11 PM GMT
Granted the ground no faster than gd, i like the ew chances of Red Cadeaux for a small interest in the Great race.
Gd luck all.Cool
Report johnnyrant November 5, 2012 4:49 PM GMT
Really hope for a good even gallop & no hard luck stories - often a lot to ask for. Seen a few MCs in which they have crawled early on & it's got very messy.
Report Navel-Gazer November 5, 2012 5:09 PM GMT
I haven't read through the thread so maybe someone's already addressed it, but what's going on with MY Quest For Peace? Shocked

When was it re-named if at all?

Just checked on Racing Post site and it's called MY QFP, but on ATR it's got its normal name of just Quest For Peace!
WTF is happening? Surprised
Report Anaglogs Daughter November 5, 2012 5:13 PM GMT
Cup favourite jockey Damien Oliver admits to betting scandal

Nick McKenzie, Richard Baker November 06, 2012

AUSTRALIA'S top jockey Damien Oliver - who will ride equal favourite Americain in today's Melbourne Cup - has admitted to racing authorities that he bet on a rival horse in a 2010 race and expects to be charged soon.

Oliver has told his supporters he expects to be suspended for between nine to 12 months - but that he is also considering retiring in a move that could see him avoid a public hearing or a penalty from Racing Victoria.

In revelations that will rock the spring carnival, sources close to Oliver confirmed to Fairfax Media that the jockey last month had admitted to breaching the rules of racing by betting on a rival horse, Miss Octo****, at Moonee Valley two years ago. Jockeys are forbidden from betting on any horse, while betting on a horse in the same race is one of the gravest breaches of racing laws.

The admission by Oliver raises serious questions about why he has been allowed to continue riding, and why he hasn't been charged by stewards, after Fairfax first revealed details of the betting scandal just over three weeks ago.

Since then, Oliver has spoken to racing officials and admitted placing the bet. Publicly, Oliver has refused to deny placing the bet.

Oliver stands to earn hundreds of thousands of dollars if he rides successfully today, following his ride on Saturday's Victoria Derby winner, Fiveandahalfstar, which earned him $45,000
Report StevoDevo November 5, 2012 5:14 PM GMT
There's another horse in Oz called Quest for Peace, hence they had to change it over here.
Report roobuck November 5, 2012 5:14 PM GMT
Apparently there is an Aussie horse with the same name so it had to change. I think, but far from sure, that it will revert back in UK.
Report Anaglogs Daughter November 5, 2012 5:22 PM GMT
2012 Melbourne Cup form guide

By Racing correspondent Phillip Quay
http://tvnz.co.nz
Monday November 05, 2012



Racing correspondent Phillip Quay provides a horse-by-horse analysis as we count down to the Melbourne Cup.

2012 Melbourne Cup Preview
Tuesday November 6 2012
Race 7 5pm (NZ time)
A$6 million, 3200m

1 33261 Dunaden 7 h Nicobar - La Marlia. (16) 59kg. Trainer: Mark Delzangles. Jockey: Craig Williams.
French stayer who won this race last year and stormed home to win this year's Caulfield Cup in his first outing for three months. Is the logical choice even though he has a lot more weight to carry this year. TAB odds: $7.

2 32664 Americain 8 h Dynaformer - America (12) 58kg. Trainer: Alain de Royer Dupre. Jockey: Damien Oliver.
Contesting his third Melbourne Cup after winning the event in 2010 and running a meritorious fourth last year. Carries same weight as late year and meets Dunaden 4.5kg better off so in a position to turn the tables. TAB odds $6.

3 33510 Jakkalberry 7 h Storming Home - Claba Di San Jore. (19) 55.5kg. Trainer: Marco Botti. Jockey: Colm O'Donoghue.
Was the winner of the American St Leger (2700m) was placed over 2800m in Dubai in March. Won't help that he has mostly raced against small fields in Italy and that could count a lot against him. TAB odds: $51.

4 21233 Red Cadeaux 7 g Cadeaux Genereux - Artisia (18) 55.5kg. Trainer: Ed Dunlop. Jockey: Michael Rodd.
Was pipped in the Cup last year as well as the Hong Kong Cup. Has since been in the money in five races in England including placings in Group races at Ascot and Epsom. Will be doing strong work at the finish again and has each-way claims. TAB odds: $9.

5 39996 Winchester 8 h Theatrical - Rum Charger (22) 55.5kg. Trainer: John Sadler. Jockey: Jamie Mott.
Former American stayer who has been out of the winners' circle since he took out the Group 1 Sword Dancer Invitational at Saratoga in August, 2011. TAB odds: $41.00

6 36240 Voila Ice 8 h Daylami - Far Hope (13) 55kg. Trainer: Peter Moody, Jockey: Vlad Duric.
Looked very capable when finishing second behind Kiwi star Ocean Park in the Underwood Stakes and fourth to Green Moon in the Turnbull Stakes although he disappointed in the Caulfield Cup. Deserves to be at very long odds and hard to have. TAB odds: $126.

7 71142 Cavalryman
7 h Halling - Silversword (6) 54kg. Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor. Jockey: Frankie Dettori.
Comes in with a dangerous lightweight and has a very consistent record in top company throughout his career. Has raced over 3200m in his last three outings which have resulted in a decisive win at Sandown, a fourth at York and a second at Newmarket at the end of September. TAB odds $31.

8 84111 Mount Athos
(8) 54kg. 6g Montjeu - Ionian Sea. Trainer: Luca Cumani. Jockey: Ryan Moore.
Has struck a purple patch of form at exactly the right time and will take a power of beating here. Races best fresh which will be the case here given he has not appeared on a racetrack since August 18 when he showed real ability to win a Group III event over 2600m at Newbury in England. Has to be highly respected. TAB odds: $7.

9 60060 Sanagas(4)
54kg. 7 g Lomitas - Scota. Trainer: Bart Cummings. Jockey: Nicholas Hall.
Lightly raced US import who has not shown much in four starts in Australia. Even the Cups King Bart Cummings might struggle to get this horse to win the most coveted staying prize in the world. Has has yet so step out beyond 2400m which is also going to raise question marks over his ability to win. TAB odds $41.

10 21764 Ethiopia
(14) 53.5kg 4 g Helenus - Shona. Trainer: Pat Carey. Jockey: Rhys McLeod.
Inexperienced four-year-old who has a ton of ability and appeals as a top contender for this year's race. Proved his staying capabilities when winning the Australian Derby (2400m) at Randwick last autumn. Finished a game fourth in the Cox Plate last month and comes into this race with plenty of support despite his lack of racing. TAB odds: $18.

11 62614 Fiorente (2) 53.5kg. 5 h Monsun - Desert bloom. Trainer: Gai Waterhouse. Jockey: James McDonald.
Gives Kiwi jockey James McDonald a good chance of winning the race and will ensure the horse of plenty of NZ support. Won the Group 2 Princess Of Wales Stakes at Newmarket in July and is having first start for stable here. TAB odds: $26

12 21711 Galileo's Choice
(11) 53.5kg. 7 g Galileo - Sevi's Choice. Trainer: Dermot Weld. Jockey: Patrick Smullen.
Chasing hat-trick of wins here. Irish stayer who has won six of his last eight starts including two over hurdles at 3200m. His trainer previously won this race with Vintage Crop. Has won latest two outings on soft ground. TAB odds: $16.

13 11110 Glencadam Gold
(7) 53.5kg. 5 g Refuse To Bend - Sandrella. Trainer; Gai Waterhouse. Jockey: Tommy Berry.
Has picket fence formline before failing in the Caulfield Cup when favourite. Had heat in a hoof afterwards and has been taken to the beach since to provide relief and to keep his training on schedule for this race. TAB odds: $41.

14 15217 Green Moon (5) 53.5kg. 6h Montjeu - Grenn Noon. Trainer: Robert Hickmott. Jockey: Brett Prebble. Disappointed when only seventh in the Cox Plate as previous form was excellent, including a smart win in the Turnbull Stakes at his previous start. His two most recent winning performances have been at Flemington and he can compete well here. TAB odds: $17.

15 88025 Maluckyday
(9) 53.5kg. 6 g Zabeel - Natalie Wood. Trainer: Team Hawkes. Jockey: Jim Cassidy.
Finished runner-up behind Americain in this race two years ago and and latest efforts have suggested he is back to that sort of form again at the perfect time. Include in combinations. TAB odds: $14.

16 39421 Mourayan
(3) 53.5kg. 7 h Alhaarth - Mouramara. Trainer: Robert Hickman. Jockey: Hugh Bowman.
Irish import who signalled his prospect for this race with his last-start win in the Craven Plate at Randwick. Has not yet been tried over this distance but is always running his races out nicely. Not the worst chance. TAB odds: $31.

17 40115 My Quest For Peace
(1) 53.5kg. 5 h Galileo - Play Misty For Me. Trainer: Luca Cumani. Jockey: Corey Brown.
UK stayer who is highly rated who suffered interference in the Caulfield Cup at a crucial stage and should be given chance to make amends here. Has won at Goodwood over ground and has to be considered a solid lightweight chance here. TAB odds: $21.

18 10080 Niwot (15) 53.5kg. 8 g Galileo - Too Darn Hot. Trainer: Team Hawkes. Jockey: Dwayne Dunn. Forgive last-start failure in Caulfield Cup as much better than that and has shown best form over 2500m or further. Sydney Cup winner who finished eighth in this race last year. TAB odds: $51.

19 35216 Tac De Bolstron
(21) 53.5kg. 6g Take Risks - Pondiki. Trainer: Michael Kent. Jockey: Olivier Doleuze. A wet track would enhance his chances considerably. French import who was unplaced in the Geelong Cup last start. Has won over longer journeys including 3200m. TAB odds: $51.

20 10633 Lights Of Heaven
(17). 53kg. 5m Zabeel - I'm In Heaven. Trainer: Peter Moody. Jockey: Luke Nolen.
Has peaked at the right time for this after finishing third in the Caulfield Cup. Has wide draw to contend with but has the "Z" factor in her favour being by champion New Zealand sire Zabeel. Real prospects: TAB odds: $21.

21 41064 Precedence (20) 53kg. 7g Zabeel - Kowtow. Trainer: Bart Cummings. Jockey Blake Shinn.
Has failed each time in four starts over 3200m and will struggle again. Is part-owned by Sir Patrick Hogan of Cambridge Stud. Fourth in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last week and could be a bolter. TAB odds: $81.

22 89005 Unusual Suspect (23) 53kg. 9 h Unusual Heat - Penpont. Trainer: Michael Kent. Jockey: Glyn Schofield.
Former American galloper who has yet to score in 10 starts in Australia and doesn't appear to be in the type of form to be a threat here. Hard to have. TAB odds $201.

23 97065 Zabeelionaire
(24) 52kg. 4 h Zabeel - Kisumu. Trainer: Leon Corstens. Jockey: Craig Newitt.
Won the South Australian Derby last season on rain-affected footing. Is by champion NZ sire Zabeel but will need to show sharp improvement on latest efforts. TAB odds: $51.

24 14121 Kelinni (10) 51kg. 5g Refuse To Bend - Orinoco. Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Glen Boss.
Irish import who stormed into Cup contention with his fine win in the Lexus Stakes at Flemington on Saturday which secured his place in the field. He drops 6kg in weight on Tuesday which will prove a vital factor in his chances of success. TAB odds: $21.


Selections: Lights Of Heaven, Dunaden, Americain.
Others to include: Kelinni, Mount Athos, Ethiopia, Galileo's Choice, My Quest For Peace.
Longer odds: Fiorente.
Report Anaglogs Daughter November 5, 2012 5:26 PM GMT
LIVE COVERAGE

http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/
Report Navel-Gazer November 5, 2012 5:39 PM GMT
Thanks guys for clearing that up...it's bananas!

What's wrong with a simple (UK) suffix? Confused
I can't see a problem unless the 'original' Quest For Peace (Aussie version) was running in the Melbourne Cup!

I've actually seen two horses racing against each other with the same name, in the same race!

Anyone remember Ginistrelli(USA) running against Ginistrelli?
Or Susanna(USA) against Susanna?

Both were from the early 80's...Ginistrellis were in a 2yo race at Yarmouth (I think) in 1980 (the USA version was Henry's and the other was Ryan Price) and the 'Susannas' ran against each other around 1982 if memory serves - one of them was Harry Wragg's (possibly Geoff if in '83) and the other I've forgotten.

I'm really showing my age now Grin
Report bazzar November 5, 2012 7:20 PM GMT
Thanks for the viewing info Anaglogs.
Report alansure1 November 5, 2012 10:40 PM GMT
Thanks anaglogs for all the updates and info,pray tell what have you whittled the race down too ??? im on ethiopia and kellini but really getting a fancy for mount athos after studying the trends although he doesnt fit the run in the last 17 days ?? thanks again and good luck .....
Report gamerawins November 5, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
Anyone know where I can get a live stream?
Report kincsem November 6, 2012 1:56 AM GMT
Cavalryman carrying 8-7 and Frankie riding.
Report RMB © November 6, 2012 4:11 AM GMT
Had a very large bet on Fiorente, fkn crossbar :(
Report StevoDevo November 6, 2012 6:08 AM GMT
Me too. Still, place paid nice.
Report johnnyrant November 6, 2012 6:15 AM GMT
johnnyrant 05 Nov 12 16:49 
Really hope for a good even gallop & no hard luck stories - often a lot to ask for. Seen a few MCs in which they have crawled early on & it's got very messy.

Prophetic words Cry
Report MrDinos November 6, 2012 6:58 AM GMT
Well done to Green Moon backers, Brett Prebble once again showing he's one of the best big race jockey's around!

The rain never came and the ground was too firm for Galileo's Choice, he never looked comfortable coming around the last turn when the pace picked up. Smullen put him in great position but he wasn't good enough on the day.

Jakkalberry ran a great race and I was confident he would be staying on strongly at the end. The pace of the race was probably a bit too slow for him and Marco Botti suggested this wouldn't of helped but I'm really happy he managed to get placed and I will take that!
Report roobuck November 6, 2012 8:01 AM GMT
If may have been beneficial in previous runnings to be dropped in as per gamerawins analysis, but today it didn't pay off at all. OK Americain may have found the going too quick, but I thought the first 3 in the betting were given poor rides. If MA had been ridden more prominently he surely would have gone very close.

I accept everyone cannot get the perfect pitch but the distance from last to first in the back straight was startling. As such, though I only watched the race live and one replay, I couldn't see any hard luck stories other than problems caused by their own jockey. Had the 2nd but best horse on the day won imo and given a simple and effective ride
Report RozelKid November 6, 2012 12:49 PM GMT
Well , suppose i cant grumble. On another day i think Fiorente could prove to be a better horse than Green Moon.

All in all, i think that Fiorente could have won if the ground had been a tad softer, but very happy surprised with the 14/1 place that was being offered this morning.

Be interesting to see if Gai Waterhouse goes to Hong Kong with him, a very good horse im my opinion , might not be the classiest but a great stayer.


Just shows what a great betting race the melbourne cup is, as soon as Glencadam Gold pacemaker hit the front for waterhouse i was confident Fiorente would be placed , Stoute and Waterhouse almost pulled it off!
Report gamerawins November 7, 2012 3:17 PM GMT
Unfortunately excuses and near misses count for nothing in this game. All they do is keep sucking people into future scenarios they shouldn't be in.

It seems that nobody here backed the winner.

End of.
Report OffshoreGallop November 7, 2012 6:48 PM GMT
Thanks for your enlightening statement Gamera.....we all feel so much wiser.

Crazy
Report MrDinos November 7, 2012 7:17 PM GMT
gamerawins 14 Oct 12 01:57 Joined: 05 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 23

I will lay an egg if Mount Athos doesn't win this.


What kind of egg did you lay gamer? I'm guessing it might be a big Emu egg!!! Laugh

Credit to you gamer regarding Galileo's Choice, I think if the ground was softer he still might of struggled down the straight after watching the race a few times. I will not be backing old Galileo's in the future. Wink

Jakkalberry coming third at 60-1 was like a win for me backing him EW, so I'm sort of happy how it worked out in the end!

Brett Prebble rode a fantastic race, top class jockey.
Report gamerawins November 10, 2012 5:06 PM GMT
I'm happy with my selection as it was the correct decision. Anyone who watched the race with an unbiased and accurate perspective will know who was the best horse.

Things don't always work out. It's the way it goes sometimes. But yes, the bottom line is that no one here backed the winner. End of.

As for the Weld horse; twice he has been layed out for big prizes and has flopped both times, twice in 8 months. He was in Aus for 4 to 5 weeks before the race. Working well, working hard, doing fast work and quickening up well according to connections. All this on the same hard ground he encountered in the race. As you said Dinos, he might of fell away in softer ground also. I would be very wary of him.

If the race was ran 10 times MA would win it at least 5. I'm certain of this. At the odds I took I'm quite happy with my decisions. So long as I keep making decisions like that then you won't catch me working anytime ever.
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