Horse Antepost
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10-year-trends for Old Newton Cup below (http://tinyurl.com/c8k2gr9), Franciscan looks the pick:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-3
4yo: 7-9-72
5yo: 2-7-35
6yo: 0-3-19
7yo+: 1-4-24
4yos have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 47% of total runners.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-25
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-9-38
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-6-49
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-6-41
8 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-3
Top weight: 00902000530 (0-2-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-6-36
Horses rated 90 to 99: 7-12-73
Horses rated 89 or less: 2-6-44
The last 8 winners were officially rated 90 to 102
Recent/Past Form
4 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had had 6 to 16 career starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 12 or fewer handicaps in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 3 or fewer handicaps
4 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (other 6 were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3
Other Races
robinsonsofbawtry.com Handicap winner (War Poet): 1 (1-0-1)
Kilkerran Cup winner (Scrapper Smith): 2 (0-1-1)
Network Sales & Marketing Handicap winner (Licence To Till): 2 (0-1-1)
Melrose Stakes winner (Parlour Games): 4 (0-1-1)
Braveheart Handicap winner (Ithoughtitwasover): 00 (0-0-2)
Jorvik Stakes winner (Easy Terms): 509 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 7265
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 7906
2 of 10 winners ran in 32Red.com Handicap at Goodwood in May, finishing 14
Trainers
Luca Cumani (3-3-7) has gained 3 winners & 3 places from 7 runners in this since 2002.
Mark Johnston (0-1-14) has a very poor record in this race, having seen just 1 of his 14 runners in the past 10 years make the frame.
Draw
Horses drawn top 5: 4-9-50
Horses drawn middle stalls: 3-1-53
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 3-14-50
No very strong trends around the draw.
Racing Style
6 of 10 winners led or raced with leaders
4 of 10 winners raced in midfield
This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
No major trend on the prices.
Favourites (2-6-15) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4
• Carrying 8-8 to 9-3
• Officially rated 90 to 102
• Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
• Posted an RPR of 93 or higher last time out
• Ran 1 to 4 times in 2012
• Course winner (or having first start at Haydock)
• Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
• Won at no higher than class 3 level
• Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or in a handicap at Dante meeting
• Trained by Luca Cumani
• Avoid hold-up horses
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-3
4yo: 7-9-72
5yo: 2-7-35
6yo: 0-3-19
7yo+: 1-4-24
4yos have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 47% of total runners.
Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-25
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-9-38
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-6-49
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-6-41
8 of 10 winners carried between 8-8 and 9-3
Top weight: 00902000530 (0-2-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 100 or higher: 1-6-36
Horses rated 90 to 99: 7-12-73
Horses rated 89 or less: 2-6-44
The last 8 winners were officially rated 90 to 102
Recent/Past Form
4 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 93+ last time out
8 of 10 winners had had 6 to 16 career starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in 12 or fewer handicaps in GB & Ire
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won 3 or fewer handicaps
4 of 10 winners had won at Haydock (other 6 were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
8 of 10 winners had won on flat at no higher than class 3
Other Races
robinsonsofbawtry.com Handicap winner (War Poet): 1 (1-0-1)
Kilkerran Cup winner (Scrapper Smith): 2 (0-1-1)
Network Sales & Marketing Handicap winner (Licence To Till): 2 (0-1-1)
Melrose Stakes winner (Parlour Games): 4 (0-1-1)
Braveheart Handicap winner (Ithoughtitwasover): 00 (0-0-2)
Jorvik Stakes winner (Easy Terms): 509 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in Duke Of Edinburgh last time, finishing 7265
4 of 10 winners ran in a handicap at the Dante meeting, finishing 7906
2 of 10 winners ran in 32Red.com Handicap at Goodwood in May, finishing 14
Trainers
Luca Cumani (3-3-7) has gained 3 winners & 3 places from 7 runners in this since 2002.
Mark Johnston (0-1-14) has a very poor record in this race, having seen just 1 of his 14 runners in the past 10 years make the frame.
Draw
Horses drawn top 5: 4-9-50
Horses drawn middle stalls: 3-1-53
Horses drawn bottom 5 stalls: 3-14-50
No very strong trends around the draw.
Racing Style
6 of 10 winners led or raced with leaders
4 of 10 winners raced in midfield
This has not been a race where you want to concede too much ground, so horses that are kept closer to the pace are preferred.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1
No major trend on the prices.
Favourites (2-6-15) have won the race twice in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 2.25.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 4
• Carrying 8-8 to 9-3
• Officially rated 90 to 102
• Run in 12 or fewer handicaps (winning no more than 3)
• Posted an RPR of 93 or higher last time out
• Ran 1 to 4 times in 2012
• Course winner (or having first start at Haydock)
• Won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
• Won at no higher than class 3 level
• Ran in Duke Of Edinburgh and/or in a handicap at Dante meeting
• Trained by Luca Cumani
• Avoid hold-up horses
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Replies: 9
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Doesn't look good for Hillview Boy as my e/w pick then!
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franciscan certainly looks like a reasonable alternative to the favourite
cannot believe how short lexis boy has gone, 8/1 down to 3/1 in 2 days! will be odds on on satuday at this rate! |
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The track is due to get some torrential rain tommorrow. In the past you'd be confident the meeting
would be called off if the rain hits,but the drainage they now have may be able to cope with it. Looks like being a real test of stamina. Like the look of Quiz Mistress. |
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Hope you're right tinkler. I have my doubts and don't want to give up my 8-1 on the favourite!
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Will the meeting be on? bloody weather
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course is waterlogged in places, who knows
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Already bet War Poet e.w. but think everything is in place for big run from Hillview Boy. You can bet him on here win and place 1st 4. Looking at last time it was run on soft ground hold up horses aren't disadvantaged . No worries about Hillview Boy getting boxed on the rail cos they'll come up centre of the course. Hopefully they go slow place, think his best trip is 1m 3f.
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Hope you right about HB soul, am pretty confident he'll be in the 4. However the fav will surely ensure a good test from up front and he may be hard to catch tbh.
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Yeah Roo, lots with chances, need everything to go right.
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