Golden Lilac- Arc the long term plan?

was looking at her yesterday tasco for the arc ! did you nick the 50s on here before me ! down to 30 odd now ! looked at her breeding and she could get 12 furlongs ,looking at her win in the french oaks she didnt look to be stopping and its only a 1.5 furlongs shorter than the arc so fair chance of her staying imo.
most of these french races are slowly run affairs so hard to know for sure ! but she is with a master trainer and if he hints that the  arc iis the target then that would be good enough for me ,think the arc was her target last year but she didnt make it (setback or going too soft?).she is a lightly raced and very classy filly with a good turn of foot and an exellent strike rate 6 out of 7 and  open to a lot more progress imo and a decent  each way price and she ticks a lot of boxes .

I'm not convinced the trainer thinks this is a 12f filly.  He said last year she wouldn't be going for the 2011 Arc because he had stamina doubts.  Maybe another year on her back will see a change, but she certainly isn't short of speed so I think you'd want to hear some signs of intent before wading in?

She is one of the most talented fillies I have seen and I would put her up there with Zarkava. She should be unbeaten but was under par when losing to Galikova. I believe the yard had a virus at the time and she was affected. I think she would stay the Arc trip but would definitely need to settle much better. The price being offered at the moment has the uncertainty of her participation built in. Personally I would have her in the first 3 or 4 in the market if she was a definite runner.

she was in a mile race at royal ascot but missed it on account of ground too soft and is i think entered in the falmouth stakes (this is from memory so dont quote me) but regarding this and the mile entry at r.ascot the vibe i am getting is she may be aimed at 1-1.2 miles this season , but as said earlier if fabre does confirm her for the arc then i would take the hint !

As well as doubts to her participation, there would also have to be doubts over stamina if the trainer has them.

If he aims her at the race, I would want this doubt factored into her price if she hadn't proved it first in say one of the trials, so her odds with the books are about right imo.

However she is clearly very talented and a few quid invested at the prices on here at the moment wouldn't be the worst investment.

DUAL French Classic winner Golden Lilac is likely to bypass the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot next Wednesday, according to owner-breeder Dietrich von Boetticher.

Golden Lilac recently accounted for last year's Champion Stakes hero Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix d'Ispahan but connections said she will now be targeted at the Falmouth Stakes.

Von Boetticher said: "Andre Fabre feels the ground will be too testing so she will almost certainly not go to Ascot and will now probably be aimed at the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket next month."

The six-day declarations for the Prince of Wales's Stakes will be announced on Thursday.

She did look a bit special in the early part of last year, then went wrong and was put away for the rest of last year.
Impressive return this season, classy as she ran very free in 1st half of the race.
Personally, i think 10f will prob be her limit, plenty of speed for the mile as well.
Top class filly, trained by the Fr master.

She is entered in the Falmouth this Friday. I cant see her being a 12f horse tbh.

and if she turns up for that, it could be a fantastic race

Yep.

Sahme we have such bad weather. Gs,S in places at the moment.

At 6/1 i'd like Maybe but cant because of the ground.

And whilst obviously things can change, the forecast I have just looked at has some rain for virtually every day for the next week as well

Can't see Golden Lilac getting beat tbh.

how likely is she to actually run? ground dependant? 11/4 looks a bet if she comes over.

She is incredible,11/4 would be huge if coming over,but just have to wait and see what the weather does,as she wont run on soft,but if it dries up,then she will barely need to come off the bridle to win,far to much class for the field,have backed Chach each way at 8/1 looks good also at the moment

I'm not sure they would be put off by soft ground. Looking at the other principals, I think they all seem to need good ground and personally feel GL  and Fallen for You will be inconvenienced by soft ground the least and surely GL would win that battle. If Fabre does send her over I would take the hint

they gace the ground at Ascot as reason for not running, claimed it too testing ..

I was surprised by that but there you go.

The ownder of Fallen For You said just last week that the filly was having a break and coming back in the Autumn. Maybe they have changed their minds given ground conditions are in her favour ..

Clearly not an AP race then

Mad to bet in this race at the moment. Thursday night into Friday there is forecast an absolute deluge of rain in the whole of the southeast. Hours of rain. Can see Non-Runners a plenty, even in the big races.

I must clearly be mad then.... Taking a punt that all this rain will arrive

What have you backed Roo?

Gosden is committing Elusive Kate and Windsor Forest Stakes winner Joviality for the Group One heat, while another Royal Ascot star, Fallen For You, looks less likely to take part due to ground conditions.

However, the trainer is expecting Golden Lilac to prove a huge obstacle. Fabre has made surprisingly bold comments about the regard in which he holds his filly, who was a Classic winner at three and beat the top-class Cirrus des Aigles in the Prix d'Ispahan last time.

That form was boosted by the victory of Tin Horse in France on Sunday.

"Joviality will run and Elusive Kate will probably run, as she needs to have one," said Gosden.

"I probably won't run Fallen For You if the ground is soft.

"I think Joviality will give Golden Lilac a race but Golden Lilac is a very high-class filly.

"I'd expect the favourite to win, and to win well, she's that good.

"I've been overly impressed with her. Andre Fabre is the best trainer in Europe and he likes her. She's a queen of a filly."

Moonstone Magic, got it.

HRE

I thought you were leaving the forum?????

Looks like Fabre is committing Golden Lilac to the race, whatever the ground. The 11/4 is long gone and I'll have a look again when its NRNB and if she's 6/4 or better I'll play. Realistically looking at Gosden's quote and with Maybe unlikely to show up on soft, the chances of that being available are slim

She's an even money shot in reality. I hope she comes over we could see something special.

I'm sure I read somewhere that Fabre rates her as good a filly as he's EVER had, and that's some praise from a trainer who's roll call is up there with the greatest of all time.

In reality, he's more associated with colts, and I can't think of a filly from his stable that would definitely be superior to Golden Lilac.

You wouldn't imagine him to be the sort to exaggerate, though a few seasons ago, he stated that Shirocco was as good as anything he'd trained!

his best
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It's surprising how few top class fillies Fabre has had - certainly compared to the number of brilliant colts that have been through his hands.

RP 9/7  "The filly has not run since the end of May and this is the most suitable race because I need to get a race into her," continued Fabre. "After Newmarket our plan is to run in either the Jacques le Marois or the Jean Romanet. The Arc is an option later, but I don't want to test her stamina before then. She could well stay, but for the moment she has the attitude of a miler because she doesn't settle well enough - she needs to improve in that respect."

I think there are still question marks as to how good GL really is and I'll gladly be laying her at odds on. She showed a smart turn of foot to win a slowly run French 1000 last year, on the strength of which I backed her to win the Prix de Diane. It wasn't quite as slow run as the French 1000 but it was another race that wasn't a great gallop. I backed her again to win next time but the form was turned around decisively with Galikova in a race run at a much truer tempo. She appeared to improve significantly this year in the Prix d'Ispahan, but it was very noticeable that it was run at an early dawdle and the final time was poor. Maybe she would've still won off a fast pace but there is enough doubt for me to oppose her at these odds.

I know they have to take into account the long term future of the horse ( and yes a little bit of pocket talk ) but given the conditions I am surprised that they have not let Moonstone Magic take her chance.

I accept she might not be quite as ready as the trainer would like, but surely a fantastic opportunity to be have been Group 1 placed at least?

^^^^ Group 1 placed a least based on a 45 length beating in the guineas, even you concede she might not be ready ?

Cant run them in Group 1s if they not quite right Roo ..

Bitterly disappointing from Golden Lilac .. Ground?

Maybe could only manage 5th. Looks about G3 class on this seasons form.

well done btw Figgis.

Tinkler - RP 9/7  "The filly has not run since the end of May and this is the most suitable race because I need to get a race into her," continued Fabre. "After Newmarket our plan is to run in either the Jacques le Marois or the Jean Romanet. The Arc is an option later, but I don't want to test her stamina before then. She could well stay, but for the moment she has the attitude of a miler because she doesn't settle well enough - she needs to improve in that respect."

I suspect Fabre is just running her over shorter trips at the moment as a longer-term plan, to enable her to settle better, and he is killing two birds with one stone and looking to pick up a few 'easier' group ones for her CV?

She's already seen out 10.5f very comfortably against a quality opponent in Galikova, and there has to be a decent chance she'll get 12f as she's by Galileo, is now obviously stronger as a 4yo, and furthermore has already proved her well-being this season after arguably a career best against Cirrus Des Aigles.

I was surprised to read he 'needed to get a race into her' before the Falmouth, so in the circumstances the d'Ispahan effort may be even more creditable.
The Romanet over 10f is a very obvious choice of race as it's an older fillies' group one, and is three weeks after Sunday's Rothschild, so that would definitely rule out the Jacques - she could well be meeting her old sparring partner Galikova the last week in August.

Whatever happens over a mile against Immortal Verse this weekend, I can't see her missing the Romanet as it makes clear sense as an Arc prep over 10f, against fillies & mares and it's a group one!

Also, the Vermeilles (as an Arc prep option) is over 12f and we've been led to believe Golden Lilac will be keeping the Arc dream alive in not attempting the trip until the big day.
Fabre will be in a much better position by the end of next month in assessing her Arc prospects.

I happen to believe they're doing exactly the right thing with this filly and it may well reap dividends - two group ones over 8 & 10f against her own sex seems a perfect preparation, with a 5 week rest before the Arc - if she goes, she'll be a big player.

If they run her in the Arc it's more in hope than expectation - winners of that race have nearly always raced and won at 12f before.

AT - I happen to agree with you about the 'more in hope' aspect, but as I mentioned...this way they're keeping the dream alive.

Golden Lilac 6/4
Elusive Kate 15/8
Immortal Verse 5/1
Mashoora 7/1
Sagawara 12/1

I think that was an excellent trial by Golden Lilac against what looks a very decent filly over her optimal trip of a mile in Elusive Kate, and as far as Fabre is concerned, he'll figure that as 'job done' even though that's another defeat at Deauville.

She settled really well, and in a race where Buick dictated HIS pace to suit his filly, it was a tougher assignment than I though it'd be.

Nevertheless...she closed in game fashion under hands & heels (just one crack of the whip) to be just a length down at the line whilst looking like she needed further - how much more is the big question!

Now she just has to go for the Romanet over 10f in three weeks time, and I can't see her being troubled in that...even by Galikova.

Mike told you Elusive Kate would win, also said she would win her next race after she got done by Giofra

After what I thought was a very surprising decision to put Golden Lilac in the Marois and removing her from the Romanet entries, I haven't got a clue what Fabre's doing with this filly now

It seemed a very odd move to pitch her in over a mile again, when the longer trip would have suited much better this coming weekend.

Anyone know any reasons why?
This is a trainer who always seems to make the right moves and I'm bewildered by his choices - I can't be alone...can I?

The Arc dream is still alive!

Been really disappointed with this filly. I'm not sure a mile particularly suits anymore but her consistency has gone which is a real shame. I'd step her up and put a hood on but I'm sure Fabre knows how to train a bit better than me