Horse Antepost
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Is it just me or has this fellow been overlooked a bit for the Eclipse? Won the race before, 10F is his best trip, should be fresh enough after a bit of a break and shouldn't have a problem with anything other than soft or worse (bit of a worry with the weather as it is I know). Pretty much a confirmed runner, surely the 80s win and 6s place is a bit big, especially to place. It is a competitive renewal but I think there are sufficient doubts about the rest to be worth an interest:
So You Think: Likely winner but not completely bomb proof on all known form.
Farhh: Arguably unfortunate LTO, wants it soft but has been supplemented so he won't be there to make up the numbers whatever happens.
Nathaniel: Classy animal but 12F might be a better distance for him and his breeding would go along with this. Also FTO after a lay off, so could be opposable, although if it does come up soft the extra stamina should be in his favour.
Citycape: First time at the trip, done all of his winning over a mile and once over 9F this is probably not the company to be testing him in over the longer trip.
Bonfire: Shapes like this is his trip, but Dante form hasn't shaped up very well. Could be anything.
Crackerjack King: Not beaten much of note yet and trainer thinks this might not be the race for him yet. Still to be respected.
Monterosso: Admirable win in the Dubai World Cup but suspect he may not have the class for this.
Cogito: Could be anything but opposable on the little known form.
Giofra: Could be one to watch at a price, hard to compare the form but was battered by Cirrus Des Aigles LTO so possibly not quite good enough.
Daddy Long Legs: Not done enough to make you think he will figure.
City Style: Held on all known form.
Windsor Palace and Robin Hood: Hares.
Tricast:
1. So You Think
2. Twice Over
3. Bonfire
So You Think: Likely winner but not completely bomb proof on all known form.
Farhh: Arguably unfortunate LTO, wants it soft but has been supplemented so he won't be there to make up the numbers whatever happens.
Nathaniel: Classy animal but 12F might be a better distance for him and his breeding would go along with this. Also FTO after a lay off, so could be opposable, although if it does come up soft the extra stamina should be in his favour.
Citycape: First time at the trip, done all of his winning over a mile and once over 9F this is probably not the company to be testing him in over the longer trip.
Bonfire: Shapes like this is his trip, but Dante form hasn't shaped up very well. Could be anything.
Crackerjack King: Not beaten much of note yet and trainer thinks this might not be the race for him yet. Still to be respected.
Monterosso: Admirable win in the Dubai World Cup but suspect he may not have the class for this.
Cogito: Could be anything but opposable on the little known form.
Giofra: Could be one to watch at a price, hard to compare the form but was battered by Cirrus Des Aigles LTO so possibly not quite good enough.
Daddy Long Legs: Not done enough to make you think he will figure.
City Style: Held on all known form.
Windsor Palace and Robin Hood: Hares.
Tricast:
1. So You Think
2. Twice Over
3. Bonfire
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Replies: 30
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I agree that the price is wrong, not sure I can invest though as it looks a better race than he has won before.
I am leaning towards Cityscape myself, but agree that the fav will be hard to beat. At this stage couldn't have any of the 3yos in the frame, they have an awful lot to prove |
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Multiple G1 winner over this distance and previous winner of this race. Well worth a poke at 80.
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great old servant, only back him at newmarket myself.
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Nathaniel was a fair bet even on good ground .....on soft , well he has been backed from nines into fives with Corals today . Twice over has a reasonable place chance imo as he runs well first time out
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Have spent the evening nibbling away on Twice Over form 80 downwards with cover on 6 for the place. Roll on Saturday. Henry loves this horse.
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Noticed Farhh and Nathaniel backed today so thought they must have had a load of rain but it's still good to firm, good in places as of this evening. There doesn't seem to be a massive amount of rainfall forecast even though most days have some rain forecast so I wouldn't bank on it being any worse than good.
Having said all that I've lost count the amount of times the 5 day forecast has been totally inaccurate. |
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the ew punters have been on nathaniel in their droves by the looks of it, best odds now 13/2 but as short as 9/2. SYT now available at evens with some firms after being odds on across the board.
So You Think - most likely winner for me, his win at Ascot was arguably his classiest display on European soil, quickened and knuckled down tremendously. different to his eclipse win and irish champion win as in both of those races (like the POW he lost) he was wound up and sent on a long way out. think aidan has him sussed and should win. Farhh - highly progressed and still relatively unexposed. even taking misfortune at ascot into account, he will still need to have a few pounds of improvement left to beat SYT imo. Nathanial - highlight so far his king george win last year, was very impressive. however, i get the impression that some of these opponents may be better suited to the 10f than he is, and surely whatever he does gosden will just be hoping he gets a nice run to set him up for another king george tilt. if much juice gets into the ground it could help him stamina-wise. Pacemakers will help him. Cityscape - classy miler but probably has place credentials at best. should run his usual sort of race. Bonfire - just glad the race isn't on bbc or they'd have you think no other horse was running. still could be anything after his dante win, as he was reported not to handle the epsom camber. i don't believe he will be top class and still has to prove to me he deserves the reputation he has. Crackerjack King - don't know much about him but isn't my idea of the winner and this will be a decent starting point for his life with Botti. Monterosso - won the Dubai world cup round the meydan dog track but can't see him getting a turf g1 in britain. opposable. Cogito - apparently rated well at home and may have a nice race in him but can't see him making the places here. Giofra - has some smart form so far this season, but trainer not certainly to declare her. one for the weather watchers. Daddy Long Legs - ran well for a long way last time considering he was doing the donkey work up front, could run well at a price. City Style - 50/1 is probably a fair summary of his chances, will probably be closer to last than first. Twice Over - won a weaker renewal of this two years ago and rolled back the years to win the Juddmonte last year. Will run an honest race as usual but maybe the sands of time have now caught up with him at the top level. Sri Putra - has ran well in this race before but is very inconsistent these days, either runs a blinder (usually in defeat) or a stinker. Windsor Palace and Robin Hood - SYT's pacemakers. |
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Twice Over has won more turf G1`s than the rest of the field put together.
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Ran very badly at Sandown on soft ground last time
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Strange why it ran last time on bad ground and only 9 days after it`s previous run.
Given a nice break since. Cecil has a real soft spot for this horse , apparently worked well last weekend . |
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Will it be soft ground tho? Was good/good to firm yesterday and looks like missing the deluge across the midlands today.
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Will have a good chance if good ground. Trip too short for Nathaniel plus first time out. Very poor field.
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Dont agree trip 2 short for Nathaniel
In the champion stakes he recorded 3 of the 8 fastest furlongs SYT who finished second recorded none Unfortunately was asked to do too much to early |
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Surely Nathaniel's ideal conditions are good to soft or softer over 1 1/2m ,yet here he's being
asked to race over 1 1/4m on good(good to firm places). Gosden didn't run him the Arc because of the ground and may well pull him out here if there's no significant rain. 100/30 looks very short to me. Farhh and Bonfire would probably prefer some give as well. Crackerjack king will like the decent ground and must have some sort of chance ,but from what I've seen he's no Falbrav,though he won't need to be. Monterosso - appears best on AW courses. Given the opposition has a chance. Twice Over - probably past his best but Cecil has his horses in vg form this year and he'll like conditions. Cityscape - Meydan win looks better than what the others have achieved ,uphill finish not ideal but likes good ground. With no SYT and what looks like possibly being ground on the faster side of good Cityscape looks overpriced at 6/1 est true price 9/2 ,thus have backed it. |
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Crackerjack King est true price 8/1 bit more than coverbet placed at 12/1.
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Ground turning in Nathaniels favour
Tinkler 10/3 looks short to you. hes beaten a derby winner/arc winner/breeders & dual coronation cup winner yet the 9/4 fav has a thirsk hcap as his best win |
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some odd types in here and I'm not sure this race is a good fit for them.
Crackerjack King looks massively overpriced. Race fits nicely for him and smashing win for him last time. put 10 lengths between him and Sri Putra in a matter of strides which matches up well to the expected standard you need to be at to win a race of this nature. Lets hope he's a Falbrav II Race might set up nicely for him too with so many horses wanting to be on the offensive here....Cityscape, Monterosso, Nathaniel, |
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Twice Over sets the form standard at the trip, and a couple of unexpoesed types in Bonfire and Crackerjack King are the dangers.
Farhh has to be the worst favourite for a group one race in history. Will surely drift on the day. Was third at Ascot, seemingly finishing well when it was all over but Carlton House may have been at the end of his stamina and he was basically running on against beaten horses. Apart from the winner that was a poor gp1. Do not ask for any other form. There is none whatsoever. Nathanial won as a 3yo in the king george, but that was a muddling race. Workforce was never the same as a 4yo, and SNA has improved since then and wasnt given a great ride imo. Add to that the fact that this isnt his main target and that he is definately more of a 12f horse he is definately opposable. CityScape just isnt a group 1 horse, at least not in this country. Only a year younger than Twice Over but has nothing like the group 1 profile. The thing is, Twice Over has come back from bigish beatings so many times before. His 10f form is good in the context of this race and i wouldnt rate any of he three above as any sort of dangers. Crackerjack King could be anything. Very well bred, he has won a group one in Italy easily, which isnt saying much I know. However, as shown by Falbrav, its perfectly possible for a horse to come over from there and be top class over here. Definate danger. Bonfire has the advantage of the 3yo allowance. Reminds me of Environment friend, who ran a stinker in the Derby before winning this race. Weight for age is unfair to the older horses to the tune of about 5lb over this distance (imo) so he doesnt have to be absolute top class to have a hand, given the others in the race. Personally i will be backing Crackerjack King and Twice Over at stakes to win the same amount. Good Luck. |
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I know he's come back from beatings before but he is seven now and its one thing coming back dropped in class when beaten by the likes of Rewilding and Canford cliffs to win a weak Juddmonte and a listed at York and a totally different thing to be gubbed by Questioning and Columbian!!
If i had to have a bet it would be Bonfire at the prices |
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Yes Twice Over is way overpriced, don't get this ' time catching up with him' his best run , The Juddmonte , was only a few runs ago and he's always come back to form after poor runs before.
Backed him but Cityscape my main bet |
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Cant have Cityscape in a million years. Loads of `judges ` including Lydia floppy tits keep banging on this horse. No chance.
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CLASS
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Good call geoff. Great to see this race won by a top quality horse - too often the winner is an average one lately.
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Great to see the old boy grab a place (especially as I bottled out of the win bet)! Nathaniel was a great winner, a lot more versatile than I had him down for. Also very pleasing to see John Gosden get a Group 1, very knowledgeable man and talks a lot of sense.
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"Geoff: Don't agree trip 2 short for Nathaniel
In the champion stakes he recorded 3 of the 8 fastest furlongs SYT who finished second recorded none Unfortunately was asked to do too much to early" W/D Geoff - I must admit that I had doubts about the 10f for him  Where do you find information about the time analysis for past races? |
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Unfortunately as you are probably aware we dont have sectionals for any races other than champios series
Obtained them from Quipco British Champion Series site click stats & results then sectional timing section comes up Only Guineas days & some from Royal Ascot for this year. |
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Thanks Geoff - just had a peek at that site, but I can't get .pdf or .xls files to work for some strange reason...computers hate me
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Think you need adobe reader.
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Slow winning time (5 lengths slower than when Notnowcato won on G/S) suggest the going was probably Soft
though they didn't go that quick early. Nathaniel - loved the cut in the ground and showed an excellent attitude to fend off Farhh. Farhh - ran his race but wasn't quite good enough. Twice Over - admirable effort on ground a bit softer than ideal. Cityscope- came there cruising but the hill and soft ground exposed his stamina. Doubt he would have won on good ground though. Crackerjack King - looked a bit uncomfortable on the ground but probably isn't that good. Bonfire - showed a poor attitude and is probably one to swerve. Well done with the sectional time interpretation Geoff. |
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I suppose there's zero chance of another son of galileo trying dirt right?!
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