St.Leger Outsiders

This cut & paste is fcuked today
I'll post it again later!

*continued - once Camelot goes

Continued: - once Camelot goes under 1.3,
I'll be laying the sac off that too!

Kesampour is very much in the mould of Aga Khan stock, but I suspect he doesn't have fond memories of the St.Leger
since Shergar's capitulation - I really can't remember many runners carrying his silks at Doncaster, and the only one that
springs to mind is Baynoun, who ran second to Commanche Run in 1984.

Jim Bolger's Light Heavy looks another interesting candidate I'd be considering, but the portents don't look too good as
he's 190 on here, and that's a concern, as well as his trainer's preference in patronising his OWN country's classics.
Jim...you racist

It seems everyone's paving the way for a smooth path to immortality for Camelot.

I think John Oxx saddled an Aga-Khan runner a couple of years ago, Mourilyan or something.

Although I'd like to see Camelot win and become the first triple crown winner in over 40 years, I don't believe it will be the penalty kick that many are assuming, as that extra 2.5f doesn't look like it will suit.

Maybe guts & class will see him through but I think stronger stayers (albeit of lesser ability) could be under-estimated, and a late developing/improving type (like Moon Madness or Moonax) could enter calculations later this month in the Gordon Stakes.

I've mentioned on other threads that I suspect this could be the last time we see Camelot on a racecourse, as win or lose, connections will want to 'protect' his reputation.

Is anyone else as cynical as me?

PS - Sint...not that one mate, but there are loads with similar sounding names you could be getting confused with.

It was Mourayan.
5th of 8 behind Mastery and Kite Wood.
Now trained in Oz. 

There's one since Baynoun in 1984!
Any more guys?

Might the Aga Khan might have an aversion towards the Leger?
Has he publicly stated any grievance/dissatisfaction about the race?

Considering the potential ammunition he seems to have every season, I find it astonishing he's constantly overlooked the race,
so I suppose it doesn't bode too well for my outsiders

Maybe those 190 layers aren't THAT stupid after all

"I suspect this could be the last time we see Camelot on a racecourse, as win or lose, connections will want to 'protect' his reputation - Is anyone else as cynical as me?"

Nobody commenting on this possibility?
I think it's probably a shade of odds-on that he's got one more run in him, as connections have plenty in the form book;

Exhibit A - Canford Cliffs

Where do some of you figure he might go if;
(a) he wins the Leger
(b) he's beaten at Doncaster

I strongly suspect it's the same answer for both questions
and Town Moor could be his last public sighting

You could well be right mate...I wouldn't bet against that happening

No idea about it being his last race. Too early to say.

Prepare for the excuses a couple of days after the Leger...hairline fracture of some sort, and such an injury, however microscopic, would jeopardise his career, so he's off to stud - I can see it coming.

Valiant looks a possible, and the obvious alternative looks like being Michaelangelo.

They both have a similar sort of profile to Conduit, as they are bred to stay, particularly the Gosden horse, but have been showing very good form over 10 furlongs.

Michealangelo may well run in the Leger as a winner of 4 in a  row, with the latest win being either in the Gordon Stakes or the Voltigeur (or even both)and with improvement to come over the extra 3 furlongs at Doncaster. He is avery fair bet to win the race or even each way at current odds. I think he might well give Camelot plenty to trouble him.

Camelot has not yet run a figure of over 130, and although I think he is probably a horse able to run in the mid 130's he hasn't done so - yet.

The Leger is nearly 1 mile 7 furlongs, and is bound to be a serious test of stamina. Camelot has every right to be favourite and it would be great to see a triple crown winner after all this time. However I think his price of long odds on is madness. There is quite a decent chance he will find a very good opponent on the day who actually stays better than he does.

I'm looking forward to laying Camelot in the place market at ridiculously short odds, as if he fails to stay, then plodders 20lbs+ inferior to him will get the trip better, and displace him from the frame.

I mentioned on another thread a while back that I was gonna play that tactic in the Derby, which I did and it failed
I laid at all rates down to 1.01 in the place market, but at a maximum (about 1.12 if I remember) I was never gonna lose THAT much.

Obviously, there's a far greater chance of him hitting 'the wall' in a significantly sterner test of stamina, not forgetting that he will have needed to have been at a peak for nigh on five months when the race comes.

Encke

cry of truth - hope you took the 14/1, before the masters tucked in

I backed at 15.3 - too big -  and layed at 9.2 too short (just) thanks.

I see Camelot is drifting a bit on here. I doubt its anything suspicious, he's just not a 2's on shot ante post for a race that he still might not get to, that might well not suit him and that he has a good chance of losing even if he does show up. I would be a Camelot backer at around 6/4 ante post.

Would Great Heavens be a possibility or is Johnny G against running fillies in the event?

I also think that there are some very good fillies out there this year. Great Heavens was very impressive at Haydock, making all and galloping her rivals into the ground. The Weld filly that won the Ribblesdale also looked very good. If either of those 2 or even The Fugue turned up, Camelot might have a race on his hands. I can't see a 3yo colt to threaten him at the moment.

whats hapened to main sequence on the ap market, around 12 on here few weeks back, 85 now available.

TEN2FOLLOWER 06 Jul 12 19:28 Joined: 12 Sep 05 | Topic/replies: 3,727 | Blogger: TEN2FOLLOWER's blog

"Encke"

A massive doff of the cap to Ten To Follower considering that was posted on July 6th after scraping home in a Sandown handicap off 90 by half a length!
I don't know what you saw that day, because (from memory) I thought he was workmanlike - I hope you filled your boots chief...you deserve it

seconded, well done ten2follower