Horse Antepost
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MAAREK
Will relish the soft conditions he's likely to face here and hard to knock his progress of late. Up another 6lbs from latest win at HQ and could be drawn on wrong side but has to be respected.
ELUSIVITY
Another to have progressed well recently and nothing wrong with latest group race efforts. Huge rise is weights may stop him but likely to enjoy this test and has won on only try on soft ground. Chances.
DANDY BOY
Win in the Victoria Cup here in 2010 gives him valuable course experience and he's another who won't mind the easy underfoot conditions. Encouraging second on return from Meydan and another hard to rule out completely.
SECRET WITNESS
Very pleasing efforts so far this Spring at York, almost winning two races one day after another. Probably in the grip of the handicapper now though and easy going over this stiff 6f very different to the Knavesmire.
OASIS DANCER
Pleasing return to form over the Winter on the AW for this talented gelding. Very stiff mark to contend with in race of this nature though on ground much softer than he's encountered before. Others better treated.
COLONEL MAK
In fine form in last two starts, winning Doncaster event before finishing third to Maarek at HQ (6f g/s). Claim of 5lbs will help and he loves the easier going so makes plenty of appeal.
MORACHE MUSIC
Another one of a host of these who is likely to enjoy the ground now the rain has fallen. Gelded over the Winter, he's been a touch unlucky in both starts so far and deserves another chance. Whether this suits him though remains to be seen.
PALACE MOON
Won rather cosily last time at Newbury and finished third in this off same mark in 2010 behind handicap blot Laddies Poker Two. Doubt remains though whether these softer conditions will suit him and could be found floundering.
PABUSAR
Decent second to Palace Moon at Newbury last time, obviously closely matched with that rival again here. Lightly raced so has potential to kick on and improve but has run poorly both times on ground this easy and passed over today.
GORDON LORD BYRON
Underfoot conditions won't be an issue for this improving 4yo gelding and he's in fine form. He hasn't encountered a field as large as this before and he'll have to squeeze another pound or two of improvement out, but definite chances.
MEDICEAN MAN
Super record here at Ascot and fine fourth on Tuesday behind Little Bridge in King's Stand. Back into handicap company here he clearly deserves respect. Hasn't been that great on easier ground but tricky to leave out given his course form.
HAWKEYETHENOO
Smart sprinter in 2010 and winner of Victoria Cup here last term. Remains on a fairly high mark at present and last two wins have been on good to firm, so a big effort needed to land a blow today.
SCARF
Officially 6lbs well in here after close second to Tariq Too at Doncaster on latest start. Won on very soft going when in Australia and that has to give him some kind of a squeak today.
LUI REI
Didn't fire really last year when feeling was he was a decent sort. Has come back this term firing on all cylinders though. The 7lb claim looks a useful one, he handles soft and remains of interest.
WAFFLE
Second in this last year off same mark when chasing home high class Deacon Blues. Conditions same twelve months ago and Fran Berry back on board. Easy to see a bold show as hitting form at just the right time.
PEPPER LANE
Exciting mare who was in cracking form last year around the northern tracks. Looks to have hit her ceiling for now though and hard to envisage her taking this prize.
HIGH STANDING
Now back to 4lbs higher than when landing this back in 2009 and has handled the easier ground in the past. He was at the peak of his powers back then though and even with the assistance of Ryan Moore it's a huge ask.
SIR REGINALD
Decent as a 2yo, one win from sole start at three and hasn't come back in the best of shapes as a 4yo so far. Looks to be best watched for the time being until he picks up his form.
GRAMERCY
Joined the Kevin Ryan team at start of this season and finishing last of 16 on sole start so far hardly inspires. However, loves it at Ascot and fifth in this off 1lb lower last term. Murtagh eye-catching booking.
SEAL ROCK
Lightly raced and could still be improving. A winner on soft at Pontefract in April shows he handles it well enough, although race was run to suit. Far from disgraced behind Maarek at HQ and chances.
ALBEN STAR
Another lightly raced sort who is well thought of by the Fahey yard. Return to turf at HQ in May pleasing and should be improving still. Middle draw a worry but folly to ignore.
MAC’S POWER
Deserves to win one of these after string of fantastic efforts in defeat in major sprint handicaps. 2lb drop in weights sure to help and has Fallon on board. Ground a stumbling block though.
NEW PLANET
Winner of minor Warwick event under these conditions back in April (had Mac's Power in third) and another with improvement potentially in him. Really tough to make a case for him landing prize like this though and passed over as a result.
KING OF JAZZ
Third in two big field handicaps, including one here, since joining the Bell yard at the start of the season. Seemed to handle the going well enough last time out and entitled to go well in this.
JOE PACKET
Still 7lbs above last winning mark. Debut effort was poor but should have blown the cobwebs away; even so it's hard to see him figuring in highly competitive race here today.
DUNGANNON
Has run with credit here in the past but latest efforts have been disappointing. Mark remains a stiff one and little encouragement to think he can come home ahead of all of these today.
DESERT LAW
All about speed and was a very unlucky loser in the Dash last time at Epsom. The slower ground today coupled with the stiff 6f that Ascot offers up indicates this will be much tougher and other days probably await him.
LIGHTNING CLOUD
A solid improver all through last year and into this. Must have decent chance based on comeback effort here and always runs well at the track. Claims there for all to see.
Just 13lbs separate the top weight from the bottom and that, couple with the fact they go 12/1 the field here, shows you just how tough a race this is to crack. The weather conditions don’t help either and it almost becomes impossible. Another problem to add into the mix is the draw factor. The majority went far side last year but I get the feeling the stands side will be favoured this time around. With a number of factors in his favour the pin lands at WAFFLE. He is reunited with Fran Berry who rode a lovely race on him in this last year to almost get the better of Deacon Blues. They pulled a fair way clear from the rest of the field that day and off the same mark, in the same ground but at double the price he was then, he is hard to ignore. As a side note, Berry has ridden Gordon Lord Byron on his last five starts but jumps ship to Waffle today. Whether he has a special agreement with David Barron I don’t know, but thought it was interesting none the less. Of the rest, Gordon Lord Byron does appear to have a very solid looking chance himself, as he’s an improver who will handle the conditions. I feel he does need to improve again to take this but has a canny jockey in Hughesy on board to guide him through the pack. While Scarf comes into the reckoning based his latest Doncaster effort meaning he was raised 6lbs, but stays on his old mark for this. He has form on soft going in Australia and this test could suit. Of the ones on the far side it’s Colonel Mak that draws my interest most. He is talented on his day and is clearly in fine form at the moment. He failed to shine last year in this but he was on a downswing then. He is weighted to get the better of Maarek from their Newmarket meeting and handles these conditions with ease.
Waffle 1.5pts ew @ 20/1
Colonel Mak 1pt ew @ 25/1
Scarf 1pt ew @ 25/1
Will relish the soft conditions he's likely to face here and hard to knock his progress of late. Up another 6lbs from latest win at HQ and could be drawn on wrong side but has to be respected.
ELUSIVITY
Another to have progressed well recently and nothing wrong with latest group race efforts. Huge rise is weights may stop him but likely to enjoy this test and has won on only try on soft ground. Chances.
DANDY BOY
Win in the Victoria Cup here in 2010 gives him valuable course experience and he's another who won't mind the easy underfoot conditions. Encouraging second on return from Meydan and another hard to rule out completely.
SECRET WITNESS
Very pleasing efforts so far this Spring at York, almost winning two races one day after another. Probably in the grip of the handicapper now though and easy going over this stiff 6f very different to the Knavesmire.
OASIS DANCER
Pleasing return to form over the Winter on the AW for this talented gelding. Very stiff mark to contend with in race of this nature though on ground much softer than he's encountered before. Others better treated.
COLONEL MAK
In fine form in last two starts, winning Doncaster event before finishing third to Maarek at HQ (6f g/s). Claim of 5lbs will help and he loves the easier going so makes plenty of appeal.
MORACHE MUSIC
Another one of a host of these who is likely to enjoy the ground now the rain has fallen. Gelded over the Winter, he's been a touch unlucky in both starts so far and deserves another chance. Whether this suits him though remains to be seen.
PALACE MOON
Won rather cosily last time at Newbury and finished third in this off same mark in 2010 behind handicap blot Laddies Poker Two. Doubt remains though whether these softer conditions will suit him and could be found floundering.
PABUSAR
Decent second to Palace Moon at Newbury last time, obviously closely matched with that rival again here. Lightly raced so has potential to kick on and improve but has run poorly both times on ground this easy and passed over today.
GORDON LORD BYRON
Underfoot conditions won't be an issue for this improving 4yo gelding and he's in fine form. He hasn't encountered a field as large as this before and he'll have to squeeze another pound or two of improvement out, but definite chances.
MEDICEAN MAN
Super record here at Ascot and fine fourth on Tuesday behind Little Bridge in King's Stand. Back into handicap company here he clearly deserves respect. Hasn't been that great on easier ground but tricky to leave out given his course form.
HAWKEYETHENOO
Smart sprinter in 2010 and winner of Victoria Cup here last term. Remains on a fairly high mark at present and last two wins have been on good to firm, so a big effort needed to land a blow today.
SCARF
Officially 6lbs well in here after close second to Tariq Too at Doncaster on latest start. Won on very soft going when in Australia and that has to give him some kind of a squeak today.
LUI REI
Didn't fire really last year when feeling was he was a decent sort. Has come back this term firing on all cylinders though. The 7lb claim looks a useful one, he handles soft and remains of interest.
WAFFLE
Second in this last year off same mark when chasing home high class Deacon Blues. Conditions same twelve months ago and Fran Berry back on board. Easy to see a bold show as hitting form at just the right time.
PEPPER LANE
Exciting mare who was in cracking form last year around the northern tracks. Looks to have hit her ceiling for now though and hard to envisage her taking this prize.
HIGH STANDING
Now back to 4lbs higher than when landing this back in 2009 and has handled the easier ground in the past. He was at the peak of his powers back then though and even with the assistance of Ryan Moore it's a huge ask.
SIR REGINALD
Decent as a 2yo, one win from sole start at three and hasn't come back in the best of shapes as a 4yo so far. Looks to be best watched for the time being until he picks up his form.
GRAMERCY
Joined the Kevin Ryan team at start of this season and finishing last of 16 on sole start so far hardly inspires. However, loves it at Ascot and fifth in this off 1lb lower last term. Murtagh eye-catching booking.
SEAL ROCK
Lightly raced and could still be improving. A winner on soft at Pontefract in April shows he handles it well enough, although race was run to suit. Far from disgraced behind Maarek at HQ and chances.
ALBEN STAR
Another lightly raced sort who is well thought of by the Fahey yard. Return to turf at HQ in May pleasing and should be improving still. Middle draw a worry but folly to ignore.
MAC’S POWER
Deserves to win one of these after string of fantastic efforts in defeat in major sprint handicaps. 2lb drop in weights sure to help and has Fallon on board. Ground a stumbling block though.
NEW PLANET
Winner of minor Warwick event under these conditions back in April (had Mac's Power in third) and another with improvement potentially in him. Really tough to make a case for him landing prize like this though and passed over as a result.
KING OF JAZZ
Third in two big field handicaps, including one here, since joining the Bell yard at the start of the season. Seemed to handle the going well enough last time out and entitled to go well in this.
JOE PACKET
Still 7lbs above last winning mark. Debut effort was poor but should have blown the cobwebs away; even so it's hard to see him figuring in highly competitive race here today.
DUNGANNON
Has run with credit here in the past but latest efforts have been disappointing. Mark remains a stiff one and little encouragement to think he can come home ahead of all of these today.
DESERT LAW
All about speed and was a very unlucky loser in the Dash last time at Epsom. The slower ground today coupled with the stiff 6f that Ascot offers up indicates this will be much tougher and other days probably await him.
LIGHTNING CLOUD
A solid improver all through last year and into this. Must have decent chance based on comeback effort here and always runs well at the track. Claims there for all to see.
Just 13lbs separate the top weight from the bottom and that, couple with the fact they go 12/1 the field here, shows you just how tough a race this is to crack. The weather conditions don’t help either and it almost becomes impossible. Another problem to add into the mix is the draw factor. The majority went far side last year but I get the feeling the stands side will be favoured this time around. With a number of factors in his favour the pin lands at WAFFLE. He is reunited with Fran Berry who rode a lovely race on him in this last year to almost get the better of Deacon Blues. They pulled a fair way clear from the rest of the field that day and off the same mark, in the same ground but at double the price he was then, he is hard to ignore. As a side note, Berry has ridden Gordon Lord Byron on his last five starts but jumps ship to Waffle today. Whether he has a special agreement with David Barron I don’t know, but thought it was interesting none the less. Of the rest, Gordon Lord Byron does appear to have a very solid looking chance himself, as he’s an improver who will handle the conditions. I feel he does need to improve again to take this but has a canny jockey in Hughesy on board to guide him through the pack. While Scarf comes into the reckoning based his latest Doncaster effort meaning he was raised 6lbs, but stays on his old mark for this. He has form on soft going in Australia and this test could suit. Of the ones on the far side it’s Colonel Mak that draws my interest most. He is talented on his day and is clearly in fine form at the moment. He failed to shine last year in this but he was on a downswing then. He is weighted to get the better of Maarek from their Newmarket meeting and handles these conditions with ease.
Waffle 1.5pts ew @ 20/1
Colonel Mak 1pt ew @ 25/1
Scarf 1pt ew @ 25/1
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Replies: 19
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top stuff again VK,good luck
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Have backed Waffle aswell. Being a 6yo now he would have need each of his runs for fitness and I like the way he has improved with each run. Kinda suggests he is getting fitter with each run.
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Each run, like.
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same as you lot i've backed waffle, cannot possibly be a 20/1 shot
had a future group winner in front of him in this race last year (deacon blues) and a future group winner behind him in 3rd place too (pastoral player) off this mark, on soft ground he surely has to be going close again only problem is he hasn't won for 4 years, but apart from that minor detail.... |
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4 years!
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Have added King Of Jazz. I actually backed this horse for the Lincoln at the start of the season.
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Only a saver bet on Waffle - too many times have I placed my faith in the horse thinking today is the day.
Main bets for me are Medicean Man 25s , Maarek 16s and Dungannon 33s. If it was good or better I really think MM would be a cracking bet but like you say VK, the ground is probably going to be too slow. Great write up as usual VK and good luck with your plays |
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no mention of draw vk, going to back one high, one low.
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Nice synopsis VK, only issue i have with Waffle is he doesnt wanna go past the leader, top place bet tho ! Good luck
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dungannon 33-1 ew.
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Seal Rock @ 25 for me.
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Not my favourite type of race to bet in but I thought Scarf clocked such a good time last time at the weights that I'll have to have a few quid on.
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Getting-out takes. Hoping Maarek is another Petong. Thought he was very impressive @ HQ.
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very good analysis
Thursdays Britania was dominated by those drawn low and a low number came out best in the Buc palace today ....Colonel Mac drawn low has done nothing wrong in his last couple of runs ,he is tough and consistent ,can't see him out of the places if low numbers dominate . If high numbers are to regain ascendency then Elusivity with Frankie up has chances in a race where those at the top of the handicap are not that greatly disadvantaged, given the fairly narrow weight range of the race these days. |
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On the main Forum Robster has come up with some fascinating draw stats for this race ...worth a look imo
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Quite keen on Mac's Power here
gl VK and all |
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wrong side waffle 2nd again
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I know. I feel robbed. I was screaming "get out of the way" as it was weaving his way through. Would have won with a clear passage I think. The each way money will have to do though.
Rather annoying that my last two, Desert Law 16/1 in Dash and Waffle 20/1 in Wokingham, have both finished 2nd. So much more money I could have in June by now! |
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I had both COLOUR VISION and WAFFLE in singles and doubled,
glad to collect though. |