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Horse Antepost
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A couple of interesting races in prospect today.
The 4:10 features the reappearance of Bolger's Dawn Approach. An easy winner lto (time nothing special), he deserves to be favourite but doesn't look value at current prices. Cougar Ridge has a bit to find on the clock, but he's a lovely scopey sort who will certainly get further than 6f in time,I'll be interested to see how he gets on. Mister Marc's Goodwood win is mediocre form, but the fact Hannon sends him over means he can't be discounted. Even Yes Two has some sort of a chance if he improves for stepping up in trip (some doubt there). All in all, a watching rather than betting race. With 8+ runners Cougar Ridge would have been an e/w selection, but in a 7 runner field there's no bet from me.
The 4:45 represents a quandry for me. I'm pretty certain that Liberating's form is way ahead of anything else in the race, but I'm far from certain she needs stepping up in trip. On the basis that the trainer knows her better than me, plus an apparently generous price, I'll take a chance she stays.
1pt win Liberating @ 5/1
The 4:10 features the reappearance of Bolger's Dawn Approach. An easy winner lto (time nothing special), he deserves to be favourite but doesn't look value at current prices. Cougar Ridge has a bit to find on the clock, but he's a lovely scopey sort who will certainly get further than 6f in time,I'll be interested to see how he gets on. Mister Marc's Goodwood win is mediocre form, but the fact Hannon sends him over means he can't be discounted. Even Yes Two has some sort of a chance if he improves for stepping up in trip (some doubt there). All in all, a watching rather than betting race. With 8+ runners Cougar Ridge would have been an e/w selection, but in a 7 runner field there's no bet from me.
The 4:45 represents a quandry for me. I'm pretty certain that Liberating's form is way ahead of anything else in the race, but I'm far from certain she needs stepping up in trip. On the basis that the trainer knows her better than me, plus an apparently generous price, I'll take a chance she stays.
1pt win Liberating @ 5/1
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I backed Liberating last time out and was quite disappointed with what she found. That said, she had not run for 49 days since her maiden win and it is interesting they run her again so soon.
Unoriginal here but I was quite impressed with Sky Lantern at Goodwood. She won well and Mich Channon rates the horse in second whose yard is going very well at the moment. Richard Hannon described the winner as a ready 2yo (January foal) and physically ahead of some of the others in that yard. The problem for me is whether she will handle the ground today. She might, but I aint sure, so have neglected the 5/2. But she'd be my pick. Gl, both races look decent and the Cristoforo Columbo form is on show aswell. |
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Didn't see this thread when I posted on the CC thread re Scream Blue Murder.
If I had to choose one from that race it would be her, as she was heavily backed on her debut and ran a perfectly good race and is entitled to improve. She also goes for this rather than an easier run in a maiden. Interesting Mystic that you think that Liberating's form is way ahead of anything else, I don't see that actually. Yes she was impressive in her maiden but the form with Infanta Branca was turned round most comprehensively next time. Two races to watch imo but as I have no interest, g/l with your bet Mystic |
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SKY LANTERN and TRUE VERDICT are clearly both smart fillies. They are held in high regard and it's hard to say which will turn out to be the better long-term prospect. The Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot is the intended target for the winner and she'll be hard to beat there, but in view of Mick Channon's record in the race I'd have to give a decent chance to his smart prospect SANDREAMER. Another one to keep on your side is Tom Dascombe's Sandown winner UPWARD SPIRAL.
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btw, LIBERATING had looked very speedy in her two previous races over 5f and a return to that trip will surely suit her.
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Yes James, returning Liberating to 5f seems the right thing to do, but she hasn't progressed from her impressive debut so I'll be taking a watching brief from now.
On the colts' front, I was amused to see Joke Oral cut Dawn Approach to 11/4 for the Coventry after today's win. His most likely opponent today was withdrawn and it was the 3rd race in a row in which he's posted a sub group-class time. Factor in JB's talk of the Chesham (which probably means he's nailed-on to run in the Coventry!) and it doesn't scream 'value' to me. |
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FWIW I would be interested in Scream Blue Murder over 5F and hopefully they would let her bowl along, seemed to resent being restrained and wasn't given the best ride today imo
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DA is crying out for an extra furlong. IF they run him in the Coventry he will make the market nicely
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Interesting post race comments from Hannon Jnr. He describes Sky Lantern as a big scopey filly who is not just a 2yo. These comments are in complete contrast to what he said after Goodwood, unless I am mistaken and he was talking about another horse?
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Why would you send a big scopey 2yo filly to Ireland for a Listed race before Ascot?
Actions of going to the well while you can imo |
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He seems to break horses through the middle phases of a race and then eases up in the final 50 yards or so when they've relented. Did that at Leopardstown and it accounted for the slow time as he was practically trotting home the last furlong.
just wonder if right now he's just enjoying a size & strength advantage and might falter later on in the season and in the guineas. Its not like he's super slick...he's more a pounder this horse (if you know what I mean)...when the classier types develop it could be a different story. |
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also expecting Bolger to hammer him this season and wouldnt be surprised if he had +7 runs.
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I thought it was a pretty good time by DA and he tops my 2yo ratings so far. It's obvious that the straight track was riding considerably slower than the round. It all depends how highly you rate the fillies race in comparison over the same trip, I reckon it was well up to scratch and DA was carrying 3lbs more, not that I'll be backing him in the Coventry.
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The first two home in the fillies' race are both highly regarded and (I suspect) probably capable of winning in higher grade, so I reckon it was an above-average renewal. I didn't catch Hannon's comments after the Goodwood race, but a couple of days later he made the following comment: "I keep reading that our two-year-olds all need their first race, and, while it is true that they will come on for the experience, the exceptional ones are capable of going in first time, as you saw with the likes of Tassel, Sir Prancealot and Sky Lantern". After the Naas race he said:
"You'd have to be impressed with the way Sky Lantern won in Ireland, and she could be quite exciting. She is a lovely scopey Red Clubs filly - much more than just a two-year-old, and we like her a lot. She looks as if she already wants seven furlongs, but she also has plenty of speed and has a great attitude, as you saw the way she buckled down when the second came at her at the furlong-pole and looked like going past." "Sky Lantern was well bought at 75,000 Euros at Goffs. She has a good pedigree, and her second dam was Negligent, who was a smart two-year-old and won the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket and then went on to finish third in the 1000 Guineas. We hope that Sky Lantern might eventually prove a Guineas filly herself, but, more immediately, we will be looking at the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. We know that she has the speed for six, but we will be looking at races like the Prestige at Goodwood and the Sweet Solera at Newmarket in the second half of the season, and there is plenty to look forward to with her." Personally, I'm not 100% convinced that Sky Lantern will get a mile. Her dam Shawanni won over 7f at two but she only ran twice more and did not conclusively prove that she stayed a mile. Shawanni has produced a number of speedy types such as 5-6f sprinter Arctic (by Shamardal), 5-7f winner Hinton Admiral (by Spectrum), 6f winner Shropshire (by Shamardal), 5f winner Twilight Sonnet (by Exit To Nowhere) and dual 7f winner Sharaby (by Cadeuax Genereux), but she has also produced useful 10-16f winner Shanty Star (by Hector Protector), 7-8f winner Mystic Man and winning miler Lucky Token (by Key Of Luck). Sky Lantern is arguably more speedily bred than any of her siblings, being by Red Clubs, and she has shown a lot of speed in both her races to date. But everyone is saying that she will improve for an extra furlong. We should learn a lot more when she tackles 7f for the first time. |